Yeah... I'm considering a new Les Paul and if I get one, it'll be a Standard 60s. I like the SlimTaper neck profile a lot. 2500 bucks... hmm.
New Gibson... Wife... New Gibson.... Wife....
Damn. It's tough.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Yeah... I'm considering a new Les Paul and if I get one, it'll be a Standard 60s. I like the SlimTaper neck profile a lot. 2500 bucks... hmm.
New Gibson... Wife... New Gibson.... Wife....
Damn. It's tough.
They determined the origin of the virus on the East and West coasts by looking at the genome of the virus in people who tested positive, not through contact tracing.
Jesus, did Simon Kirke play sitting on a hot plate? Every video I’ve ever seen of him, he’s a sloppy mess. Rodgers is always as cool as a cucumber.
Yeah, it's a pretty strong lean, right now.
Rodgers is a classic. Have you heard (or seen) any of the work he's done on stage with Joe Bonamassa?
My mention of contact tracing was about tracking down possible infections not finding the source.
Chris Martenson spent his video time today ripping on the VA Hydroxychloroquine "study". I hadn't bothered to go through the study in detail but his take seems legit. Key takeaways - they don't know how much HCQ patients were given or when, patients were already in the late stages of illness when antiviral meds may not be effective, trial not randomized... basically very shoddy "science" in his opinion. I'll have to take another look at the paper tomorrow with his comments in mind. He also referenced other reports of good results for HCQ, especially from France. Bottom line...jury still out but as with most antiviral treatments, HCQ would probably need to be given much earlier in disease course (like tamiflu) to be effective, NOT when people are on vents.
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The French Health Minister said it's not good and the WHO did as well soon after but the WHO retracted that later and most scientists say there's no evidence saying ibuprofen causes an issue. Then later most experts were recommending using acetaminophen just to be on the safe side.
A friend of mine had a very severe flu like illness back in January, he strongly feels like it might have been but who knows if it was COVID or not, and he took Advil when the fevers got high like 103 and he was okay.
Thing is with acetaminophen a lot of products have it in them and people might not realize and then suddenly end up taking too much like say you took Nyquil and Tylenol...they both have it and if you take them close to each other a few times you might be taking too much.
For myself and family I usually have incorporated Advil if a fever gets too high say 102+ temp. I find Advil to be a stronger/better fever reducer. I'll alternate between the Tylenol and Advil for a period when it's time for a med....that way you're lengthening the time period between doses of ibuprofen and acetaminophen so you don't get too much of either close to each other. When things start to improve in sustained fashion then I'll stop the Advil. Now is that something I'd do with COVID god forbid it came into my household....I'm not sure.
Some links on ibuprofen use and COVID:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/will-ibuprofen-make-coronavirus-worse
https://www.wfsb.com/news/fact-or-f...cle_0c2b3406-83c4-11ea-93b3-731e046b6bc9.html
https://www.wired.com/story/the-ibuprofen-debate-reveals-the-danger-of-covid-19-rumors/
I posted a week or so ago that I heard from a nurse at a long term facility that they seemed to be having success with patients who were early on in the process.
But then I heard a couple days later that that facility was seeing a whole bunch of fatalities so I don't know.
Still if the idea was we try HCQ as a last resort, because "what do we have to lose?" then the study does go against that narrative.
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Cool, thanks. You might find this slightly interesting - took this evening off from the coronavirus (first night "off" in at least 6 weeks) to play on-line poker with our monthly poker group. We've played together once a month, almost without fail since 1985, when 4 of the guys in the current group started it with a few others who dropped out over the years. I joined in 1987, which was a big deal as that was when they crossed the goy line, as I was the first non-Jew in the group, lol. Since then 3 other "new" people joined in the 90s and we've had the same 8 regulars, now, for over 20 years.
We set up a "home game" and played for play money so the site didn't actually take a real "rake" of our money (which would've been about $200 over 4 hours). We just all agreed that 1000 play chips was equal to $100 and we played a bunch of limit games like we do in our monthly game (a mix of hold-em, Omaha-hi-lo, stud hi/lo, razz and draw; we couldn't play some of our goofball games like we do with card replacments for a fee or "double Omaha) and then we topped it off with a no-limit tourney for $30 each. We were all on Skype, so it was a lot of fun. I won $165, then lost my $30 in no-limit on AQ vs. 10s - classic race. We actually got more poker in than usual, as there was less gabbing. Fun time and we'll likely do this weekly for the duration, since we all have some free time. Might also get back into playing some on-line a bit for real $$ - haven't done so since the poker ban 15? years ago.
Up to 80% tested positive, now, i.e., 2000 of 2500 inmates, which is mind-blowing and I don't understand why this isn't getting more attention, since it shows 80% can become infected in a closed, very densely populated population, which is essentially the herd immunity number for an R0 of 5.7. And 2 inmates have now died, which is almost 0.1% (0.08%) of inmates and more are likely to.
Difficult to try to extrapolate death rates from a non-representative sample population to the whole US, but not difficult to say that 80% is now achievable in terms of overall infection rate - and a death rate anywhere near 0.1% would be 275K deaths for the US and if it's higher, the math is easy to do to see that several hundred thousand or more are at risk. We may have come full circle back to some of the early, original projections of up to 70% infected and over 1MM deaths (if we do no interventions) - I always thought these were overstated, but it's looking like they weren't. Would like to have some epidemiologists review the testing/data to be sure, though.
https://www.marionstar.com/story/ne...-county-prison-second-inmate-dies/3006266001/
Hundreds of young, healthy uninfected (they think) people (at lowest risk for bad outcomes) have volunteered to be human "guinea pigs" for vaccine trials for coronavirus. There are obviously some ethical questions, but this has been done before and there is zero question that it would significantly shorten the timecycle for vaccine development by at least several months, which could be huge for humanity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x
Also, an interesting bioethics paper was written about this approach with Nir Eyal, a Rutgers Bioethics prof as lead author. It's a fascinating read and if there were ever a need for heroic volunteers like this (just like we have millions of health care workers voluntarily taking on extra risks to treat patients), now is the time. I think it's a fantastic idea if done properly.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216
The proposed trial method would potentially cut the wait time for the rollout of an efficacious vaccine. Challenge studies (which always directly expose all participants to a pathogen to assess efficacy) generally require fewer participants, followed over a shorter period than do standard efficacy studies (in which many participants are never exposed). Rollout of an efficacious vaccine to age groups not included in the challenge studies may depend on immunological bridging, but this would be a component of the expanded safety studies discussed above. It is possible that this process could take several months shorter than reliance on standard phase 3 testing to assess efficacy. While rollout to other populations might require initial bridging studies, these could be conducted relatively quickly.
It seems clear that, in the absence of an efficacious vaccine, the global death toll from COVID-19 will be enormous. A recent modelling study suggests that, even with mitigation strategies focusing on shielding the elderly and slowing but not interrupting transmission, there may be 20 million this year [10]. If the use of human challenge helped to make the vaccine available before the epidemic has completely passed, the savings in human lives could be in the thousands or conceivably millions. Intense social distancing and related control measures, held in place for many months between now and the availability of vaccine, will themselves take a toll on economies, societies, and population health. Advancing the registration and rollout of an efficacious vaccine, even by a few months, could save many thousands of lives, and commands enormous societal value.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x
Also, an interesting bioethics paper was written about this approach with Nir Eyal, a Rutgers Bioethics prof as lead author. It's a fascinating read and if there were ever a need for heroic volunteers like this (just like we have millions of health care workers voluntarily taking on extra risks to treat patients), now is the time. I think it's a fantastic idea if done properly.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216
The proposed trial method would potentially cut the wait time for the rollout of an efficacious vaccine. Challenge studies (which always directly expose all participants to a pathogen to assess efficacy) generally require fewer participants, followed over a shorter period than do standard efficacy studies (in which many participants are never exposed). Rollout of an efficacious vaccine to age groups not included in the challenge studies may depend on immunological bridging, but this would be a component of the expanded safety studies discussed above. It is possible that this process could take several months shorter than reliance on standard phase 3 testing to assess efficacy. While rollout to other populations might require initial bridging studies, these could be conducted relatively quickly.
It seems clear that, in the absence of an efficacious vaccine, the global death toll from COVID-19 will be enormous. A recent modelling study suggests that, even with mitigation strategies focusing on shielding the elderly and slowing but not interrupting transmission, there may be 20 million this year [10]. If the use of human challenge helped to make the vaccine available before the epidemic has completely passed, the savings in human lives could be in the thousands or conceivably millions. Intense social distancing and related control measures, held in place for many months between now and the availability of vaccine, will themselves take a toll on economies, societies, and population health. Advancing the registration and rollout of an efficacious vaccine, even by a few months, could save many thousands of lives, and commands enormous societal value.
Some more info about one of the first known deaths back in February. They’ve tested tissue samples to confirm it was COVID. The family believed at the time it was a heart attack. Family says the 57 year old woman was in good health.
Most likely there were cases even before this. Some states retracing...California back to December and Indiana back to mid February.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/us/california-woman-first-coronavirus-death/index.html
Most likely there were cases even before this. Some states retracing...California back to December and Indiana back to mid February.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/us/california-woman-first-coronavirus-death/index.html
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Yep, China was in cover-up mode as far back as December and not preventing travel around the world.
It was definitely spread here much earlier than previously thought.
My boss had it in mid-January, I'm certain, as did his whole family as well as my wife and daughter. My boss had the textbook symptoms and tested negative for the flu. My wife's doctor didn't bother with the flu test, since she said regardless of whether the flu test came back positive or negative, her treatment would be the same.
My wife is an RD at a dialysis clinic and their covid positive patients are clogging their filters at a much higher rate. They says it's causing hypercoagulation. This is very common so not sure why this is just being uncovered.
Not sure if it's just being discovered as much as it's just getting out to the public at large. If your'e in the field or profession you've probably seen commonality for whatever issue and discussed it with others in the field but it gets out to the general public later.
probably not getting much play because it doesnt fit a narrative that either side of the political or medical community wants to push right now
its definitely interesting to look at but most interesting to me is that CLOSE quarters like you see in nyc and even more close like in prisons and nursing homes seem to give you very very very high positive cases.,
Yeah stroke and myocardial infarction gets mentioned often in these patients but pulmonary emboli is at least as dangerous.
Actually, it will be disappointing if NYC doesn't have about 15% with antibodies. NYC reported about 15,000 death in total yesterday (including probables). Assuming that is 2.5% of symptomatic cases, that means 600K symptomatic cases. And if half the infections are asymptomatic, that means 1.2MM total infections. That is 13.8% of the city's population.
If you are looking at a lower fatality rate, for example 0.8% of total infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic), then you would expect to see antibodies in about 22% of the population.
Too much of the country is not in high density population though no?
So what if NYC and other high density areas get to or approach the 80% positivity rate, but the rural's not so much? Does it still serve to create the herd immunity effect?
Edit: Isn't the jail population generally younger? Maybe even healthier?
Study of one NY health system (Northwell) where 88% of patients that went on ventilators died...comorbidities a big contributor though. About 20% overall of their COVID patients died. But final data of definite outcomes (discharge/death) was only available for half their patients so that rate could be reduced.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/coronavirus-ventilator-patients-die/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/coronavirus-ventilator-patients-die/index.html
posted this about a week ago
found an interesting hypothesis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7136957/
is BCG vaccine, for TB, the reason for low rate of infection in developing countries?
here is another interesting hypothesis. Cambridge study thinks MMR vaccine could help
https://www.firstpost.com/health/mm...nfirmed-cases-in-uk-cross-129000-8287361.html
https://www.firstpost.com/health/mm...nfirmed-cases-in-uk-cross-129000-8287361.html
With all due respect to you and the wife here is what I find troubling. Are these dialysis patients currently infected with Covid19 in the hospital or a regular dialysis clinic of which there are many in our states. To me and I have many years experience ( 12 years ) with my late mother. In fact as a former combat medic I trained in order to do her home maintenance ... dialysis is a strenuous and taxing issue to the body especially when coming off the machine. There are many times when blood pressures precipitously drops to dangerous levels. She spent 12 years going to St . Barnabas 3 days per week and it was a nurse who did not watch her closely when she went into cardiac arrest. So these patients must be in a hospital if they have covid19.
Some seniors presenting differently than the usual fever, cough, shortness of breath. Possible effects on the CNS causing changes in behavior, confusion, sleepiness..etc
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/heal...onavirus-symptoms-wellness-partner/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/23/heal...onavirus-symptoms-wellness-partner/index.html
This is disturbing if true, and much more damning of China's actions in suppressing information.
I saw a story - can't find it now, don't recall the source - that the USIC was aware of coronavirus in China as far back as late October / early November and briefed the White House on it at that time.
Another article on mask wearing and a chart with models showing if you can get about 80% of the population to wear masks with 60% effectiveness (achievable with cloth) you can bring R0 to below 1 which is when a virus spread can die out and be halted. Here for sure I think you can get that compliance not sure about other parts of the country.
From the article:
Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R0 of less than one. That’s enough to halt the spread of the disease. Many countries already have more than 80 percent of their population wearing masks in public, including Hong Kong, where most stores deny entry to unmasked customers, and the more than 30 countries that legally require masks in public spaces, such as Israel, Singapore, and the Czech Republic. Mask use in combination with physical distancing is even more powerful.
For example, in Hong Kong, only four confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, despite high density, mass transportation, and proximity to Wuhan. Hong Kong’s health authorities credit their citizens’ near-universal mask-wearing as a key factor (surveys show almost 100 percent voluntary compliance). Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six. In the Czech Republic, masks were not used during the initial outbreak, but after a grassroots campaign led to a government mandate on March 18, masks in public became ubiquitous. The results took a while to be reflected in the official statistics: The first five days of April still saw an average of 257 new cases and nine deaths per day, but the most recent five days of data show an average of 120 new cases and five deaths per day. Of course, we can’t know for sure to what degree these success stories are because of masks, but we do know that in every region that has adopted widespread mask-wearing, case and death rates have been reduced within a few weeks.
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610336/
From the article:
Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R0 of less than one. That’s enough to halt the spread of the disease. Many countries already have more than 80 percent of their population wearing masks in public, including Hong Kong, where most stores deny entry to unmasked customers, and the more than 30 countries that legally require masks in public spaces, such as Israel, Singapore, and the Czech Republic. Mask use in combination with physical distancing is even more powerful.
For example, in Hong Kong, only four confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 have been recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, despite high density, mass transportation, and proximity to Wuhan. Hong Kong’s health authorities credit their citizens’ near-universal mask-wearing as a key factor (surveys show almost 100 percent voluntary compliance). Similarly, Taiwan ramped up mask production early on and distributed masks to the population, mandating their use in public transit and recommending their use in other public places—a recommendation that has been widely complied with. The country continues to function fully, and their schools have been open since the end of February, while their death total remains very low, at only six. In the Czech Republic, masks were not used during the initial outbreak, but after a grassroots campaign led to a government mandate on March 18, masks in public became ubiquitous. The results took a while to be reflected in the official statistics: The first five days of April still saw an average of 257 new cases and nine deaths per day, but the most recent five days of data show an average of 120 new cases and five deaths per day. Of course, we can’t know for sure to what degree these success stories are because of masks, but we do know that in every region that has adopted widespread mask-wearing, case and death rates have been reduced within a few weeks.
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610336/
That's interesting. I think the peer pressure pendulum in our area has swung in support of masks. You really don't want to be "that guy" without a mask when you're out running errands. Most places won't let you in anyway.
You must wet your shorts every time you bring up the “didn’t take it seriously”... this was about the dialysis clotting issue and a serious question I posed to CERU00 ....you go out on another tangent...listen genius China knew ...China planned it out... China Is a very bad actor ...but yet some here don’t like to admit this important fact...Trump is not perfect by no means but Trump didn’t plant this virus here...you still giving them a free pass... fact is we all will at some point
will get this virus which doesn’t discriminate by age , sex, race or IQ... The clotting issue I completely understand and that is from first hand knowledge...pray you never have to have a shunt punt into your arm and be hooked up for 6 hours at a time 3 days per week...
I honestly can't understand why someone wouldn't absolutely want to wear one. It can seemingly really make an impact and definitely can't hurt. Other than supply issues, what exactly is the resistance?
You're a psycho. Literally nothing you said has anything to do with anything I said. I wasn't addressing you in any way.
Here's a thought - go drive a spike into your brain hole. Let us know if you hit anything.
F*ckin' weirdo.
I think some of it is supply issues, some people just don't want to be bothered, but that number is dwindling. It's just part of daily life now.
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