Except that "on your death bed" actually means "nothing more can be done", so you might want to adjust your metrics.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
- Status
Except that "on your death bed" actually means "nothing more can be done", so you might want to adjust your metrics.
As an investment, the wall street in me says stay away from CytoDyn. Their financials are just not good. However, the scientist in me says, pay attention to their science because it does show tremendous promise against covid2.
https://www.cytodyn.com/newsroom/pr...ith-cytodyns-leronlimab-indicates-significant
Just to review:
- Remdesivir is an antiviral - it stop RNA production and virus replication but does nothing against cytokine storm.
- IL-6 anatgonists, such as the Genetech and Regeneron drugs, blocks cytokine storm, but also suppress the immune system.
CytoDyn's drug candidate can do both. It uses CCR5 to traffic cells that (theoretically) suppresses (IL-6) cytokine storm response but also activates CD8 T-Cells and CD4 T-cells, which were shown to be effective against the original sars-covid in mouse models. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19906920
People on "death bed" are being resuscitated on Remdesivir, IL-6 and plasma treatments. It's just not 100% as "death bed" patients are wrought with complications. Not really sure what you mean by "adjusting" metrics. This isn't black and white.
SK never abandoned contact tracing at all. In fact they have one of the most aggressive contact tracing programs in the world. The article you linked merely said they went from testing based on contact tracing to very aggressive "community testing," where essentially everyone associated with an outbreak (especially in their hotspot in Daegu) got tested.
They never abandoned contact tracing, but have actually enhanced it, as per the excerpt below from Pueyo's latest Medium article I linked yesterday. SK's "playbook" is aggressive and early testing, plus aggressive contact tracing and quarantining of positives and contacts of positives, couoled with a strong mask-wearing culture. Because of this, they've never "locked down" their country, although they practiced moderate social distancing, voluntarily. Same approach has been used in Taiwan, where they have never even had an outbreak.
However, if a vocal minority of people in the US are bristling at social distancing, they (and more) would probably revolt at fairly invasive SK's contact tracing. I'd hate it, but I'd do it to get through this and then expect it to be stopped after we have a vaccine. The alternative is a lot more death or a lot longer fairly aggressive social distancing.
Meanwhile, countries/regions like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam or South Korea are all testing enough that less than 3% of their tests are positive. They are not just testing people with symptoms. They’re testing all the people who’ve been in contact with them. How do they know? In the case of South Korea, through one of the most advanced contact tracing systems outside of China.
The South Korean government has access to mobile phone data, credit card data, and CCTV data during epidemics, the result of a law approved after the MERS outbreak: “We had laws revised to prioritize social security over individual privacy at times of infectious disease crises.” — Dr. Ki."
With that information, they know where people went. They then release that information publicly (stripped of personal identifiers) so that other people can figure out if they might have crossed paths with an infected person. They detail hour-by-hour, sometimes minute-by-minute, timelines of infected people’s travel — which buses they took, when and where they got on and off, even whether they were wearing masks.
Still having issues linking to Medium posts. Try Googling Medium and TomasPueyo - the article is "Learning to Dance." The 2nd link also discusses SK's approach.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-south-korea-controlled-its-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-4
I would think that many in the "nursing home" communities have directives that would preclude resuscitation or other extraordinary measures to prolong life.
Another serological (antibody) study: estimating about 5% with antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland, which is consistent with several other studies in Europe/US showing 3-10% with antibodies. Still thinking NYC metro might be up around 15%, given the high density and huge outbreak. Should know in a few days (at least for NY, including NYC).
https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation
https://www.hug-ge.ch/medias/communique-presse/seroprevalence-covid-19-premiere-estimation
Analysis of the viral genetic fingerprint shows that the vast majority of cases on the West Coast are from viruses which came over from Asia and the vast majority of cases in the Northeast are from viruses which came over from Europe.
I don't know if it is just random luck, or geographic differences in travel patterns. But since CDC testing protocols initially focused on those who traveled (or had contact with people who traveled) to Asia, and excluded European travel, that means infected people on the West Coast were eligible for testing earlier, while infected people in the Northeast were excluded from testing.
Looks like this site tries to auto-convert medium links into a "media" format, much like it does Twitter links.
Instead of copy/pasting the actual URL, you can write some text describing the link, like the title, highlight that and click the link icon in the post editor above and post the URL in that.
Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance
More evidence that the virus has been with us for months, as per this article, as two deaths in CA in early/mid-Feb have been shown to be due to coronavirus.
Been saying this for weeks. Remember the Dr. Chu saga in Seattle? Where she wanted to test frozen flu samples in late January as she was working on a flu study, but was told no by the CDC (patient rights issue), but eventually did test them a month later without permission and went to the media and the test was positive, indicating community spread in WA in late January. Also, tons of people have been saying they now think they had COVID in Dec/Jan/Feb (a few weeks ago I posted detailed descriptions of what certainly sounded like CV infections from friends in December).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-10#post-4446184
If Dr. Chu had been given permission (there were ways) back then, we could've gotten a one month jump on the outbreak as community spread wasn't then confirmed until 2/26. People have no idea how important that was. Easy to "ignore" the threat when they're all travelers - very hard to ignore it when there's transmission going on in the community. My guess is some decent percentage of the thousands of deaths in Jan/Feb originally called influenza were actually due to the coronavirus. Presumably the CDC/labs keep some frozen samples, so this shouldn't be hard to verify.
https://www.cnn.com/…/california-deaths-earlies…/index.html…
https://www.nytimes.com/…/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
Been saying this for weeks. Remember the Dr. Chu saga in Seattle? Where she wanted to test frozen flu samples in late January as she was working on a flu study, but was told no by the CDC (patient rights issue), but eventually did test them a month later without permission and went to the media and the test was positive, indicating community spread in WA in late January. Also, tons of people have been saying they now think they had COVID in Dec/Jan/Feb (a few weeks ago I posted detailed descriptions of what certainly sounded like CV infections from friends in December).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-10#post-4446184
If Dr. Chu had been given permission (there were ways) back then, we could've gotten a one month jump on the outbreak as community spread wasn't then confirmed until 2/26. People have no idea how important that was. Easy to "ignore" the threat when they're all travelers - very hard to ignore it when there's transmission going on in the community. My guess is some decent percentage of the thousands of deaths in Jan/Feb originally called influenza were actually due to the coronavirus. Presumably the CDC/labs keep some frozen samples, so this shouldn't be hard to verify.
https://www.cnn.com/…/california-deaths-earlies…/index.html…
https://www.nytimes.com/…/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
Last edited:
This Washington Post article says that a lot of the problem with treating the virus is its apparent tendency to cause a lot of blood clots. https://www.inquirer.com/health/cor...is-killing-coronavirus-patients-20200422.html
While its almost consensus here that CV was here since December /January, you linked two truthful sources (not)
Still skeptical.
When did they do this testing? Especially in relation to the travel ban. Did they implement contact tracing? And how long after they arrived did they conduct that tracing?
I would suspect contract tracing in NYC is near impossible, especially if that person used the subway.
Not to mention the asymptomatic spread of the virus and how testing would not track that.
Last edited:
Just stop that silliness. If you want to debate political positions/editorials/etc. of CNN, the Times, Fox, etc., fine, but the vast majority of simple news and facts about the virus are generally pretty accurate. Do you really think one of them is making up news about CA deaths being tested + for CV or results from antibody studies or cases per day they get from state sources? C'mon.
One of those posts you feel weird throwing a like on, but I was wondering about just such a break down recently in this thread.NJ Data
That there are fewer people in 72,000 square miles of Washington than there are in New York City..?
And WA had better early testing than NY, so they started interventions sooner for a much less dense population and voila, far less cases/deaths per capita...
Ya, my post was trailing previous posts which talked about why NYC was doing much worse then the western states. #'s thought it had more to do with testing, while I, and others(there was a tweet posted as well) thought it had more to do with the tight conditions people experience in NYC.
Well, we didn't need this: blood clots and other cardiovascular events are becoming a major issue/cause of death in COVID patients. #nottheflu...
Increasingly, doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow any of the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.
With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood.
The concern is so acute some doctor groups have raised the controversial possibility of giving preventive blood thinners to everyone with covid-19 — even those well enough to endure their illness at home.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...HZRrPx_zEv42GTgYVRXJunFJA1haEwzvp_PXyHBJurdgc
Increasingly, doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow any of the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.
With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood.
The concern is so acute some doctor groups have raised the controversial possibility of giving preventive blood thinners to everyone with covid-19 — even those well enough to endure their illness at home.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...HZRrPx_zEv42GTgYVRXJunFJA1haEwzvp_PXyHBJurdgc
But if it was here in Dec, and Washington wasn't aware of community spread until Feb 26th?
I'm also skeptical of the idea that it was killing people in Jan, but hospitals were not over run until the very obvious outbreak in mid March.
It's both, but clearly SK shows that testing is very likely more important, as Seoul is almost twice as densely populated as NYC (45K/sq mi vs. NYC at 26K sq mi, although Manhattan is 67K/sq mi) and they were able to prevent a huge outbreak there with early aggressive testing (and tracing/quarantining). There's zero doubt in my mind or most experts' minds that flying blind into an epidemic with no testing data allowed the NYC metro outbreak to get much larger than anyone knew and that, combined with the very high population density and commuting patterns are why the exponential growth seen was much faster than anywhere in the world. NYC would've needed early aggressive testing by late Feb, as originally promised, plus lockdowns probably by early March (2+ weeks before they occurred) to have had a chance at controlling the outbreak.
Here is a good piece right on point: on how the virus took hold in the U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Related to the clotting issue.....seeing sudden strokes in mild cases of young adults in their 30s and 40s treating themselves at home.
Snippets from the article:
The new coronavirus appears to be causing sudden strokes in adults in their 30s and 40s who are not otherwise terribly ill, doctors reported Wednesday.
"The virus seems to be causing increased clotting in the large arteries, leading to severe stroke," Oxley told CNN.
"Our report shows a seven-fold increase in incidence of sudden stroke in young patients during the past two weeks. Most of these patients have no past medical history and were at home with either mild symptoms (or in two cases, no symptoms) of Covid," he added.
It is not common for people so young to have strokes, especially strokes in the large vessels in the brain.
"For comparison, our service, over the previous 12 months, has treated on average 0.73 patients every 2 weeks under the age of 50 years with large vessel stroke," the team wrote in a letter to be published in the New England Journal of Medicine. That's fewer than two people a month.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/strokes-coronavirus-young-adults/index.html
But the question was why NYC was much worse then the rest of the country. (Not why NYC was way behind Seoul.) When everyone was way behind in testing, then why is testing the #1 issue?
As a tangent, but related to the Seoul-NYC comparison, do we know the daily average total people's including commuters, in Manhattan vs Seoul?
The blood clotting thing is weird. This has been ravaging the world for 4 months now yet this is just becoming a finding? Wouldn't there have been a statistically significant prevalence of strokes within the Diamond Princess population?
I posted this a while back but it has been updated as of 4/20. Fair amount of discussion about clotting, hyper-coagulability, and treatment protocols. From a hospital system in Virginia.
https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_pub...cine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
One relevant paragraph (emphasis mine...some strong claims)
"The above pathologies (cytokine storm, hyper-coagulability, severe hypoxemia) are not novel, although the combined severity in COVID-19 disease is considerable. Our long-standing and more recent experiences show consistently successful treatment if traditional therapeutic principles of early and aggressive intervention is achieved, before the onset of advanced organ failure. It is our collective opinion that the historically high levels of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 is due to a single factor: the widespread and inappropriate reluctance amongst intensivists to employ anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant treatments, including corticosteroid therapy early in the course of a patient’s hospitalization. It is essential to recognize that it is not the virus that is killing the patient, rather it is the patient’s overactive immune system. The flames of the “cytokine fire” are out of control and need to be extinguished. Providing supportive care (with ventilators that themselves stoke the fire) and waiting for the cytokine fire to burn itself out simply does not work... this approach has FAILED and has led to the death of tens of thousands of patients. "
https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_pub...cine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
One relevant paragraph (emphasis mine...some strong claims)
"The above pathologies (cytokine storm, hyper-coagulability, severe hypoxemia) are not novel, although the combined severity in COVID-19 disease is considerable. Our long-standing and more recent experiences show consistently successful treatment if traditional therapeutic principles of early and aggressive intervention is achieved, before the onset of advanced organ failure. It is our collective opinion that the historically high levels of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 is due to a single factor: the widespread and inappropriate reluctance amongst intensivists to employ anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant treatments, including corticosteroid therapy early in the course of a patient’s hospitalization. It is essential to recognize that it is not the virus that is killing the patient, rather it is the patient’s overactive immune system. The flames of the “cytokine fire” are out of control and need to be extinguished. Providing supportive care (with ventilators that themselves stoke the fire) and waiting for the cytokine fire to burn itself out simply does not work... this approach has FAILED and has led to the death of tens of thousands of patients. "
I keep hearing that Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG), which is used to immunize against tuberculosis (and is also useful in treating bladder cancer) is being tested as a treatment for covid virus. Does anyone know anything about this? I have been treated with BCG -- reactions to it vary from mild to (in rare cases) full-blown tuberculosis. (BCG gave me fatigue that had me in bed for weeks each time I had it.)
But see, early on were were told that anti-inflammatory meds are Bad, because they inhibit nitric oxide production.
So is it really OK to take ibuprofen if you think you have Covid-19? The original statements said it should be shunned.
Dude, I don't know. I'm confused.
Although I've gone way up on my daily aspirin, because it's not an NSAID and it's an anticoagulant. I've also added red wine to my daily alcohol menu. Not taking any chances.
Okay, maybe I'm taking some chances with GI bleeding and cirrhosis, but... that's down the road.
Aspirin was great for me when I was young, but now it definitely gives me GI bleeding, not that you wanted to know that.
Les Paul is my favorite guitar and 90% of my playing is on one. Lately I have been using my 1987 Cherry Std. Love me some humbuckers.
- Status
Latest posts
-
-
-
Football Athan Kaliakmanis Named QB1, Gavin Entering Portal- Latest: William J. Leggett
