COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Just because you keep repeating that doesn't make it true. I've outlined in great detail, previously, and will now again, why South Korea is a fair model for what they accomplished with testing and everything else, but let's just look at testing. Below is a post I made on 3/13 on the CE board (now gone), but also on another board, linked below.
It's been well established that WHO-approved PCR viral test kits (originally developed in Germany) were commercially available in early February and that countries like Germany and South Korea were also exporting test kits using this procedure by mid/late February (links below). Dual sourcing would've been easy if we had a functioning executive branch. I've managed global supply chains far more complex than simply obtaining a working analytical test (i.e., for about a dozen projects, each having 5-10 supply nodes across the globe) and every time we've felt that a particular node was possibly not reliable, our standard approach would be to dual source that node, since failure of that one node could jeopardize an entire product launch.
We could've been getting 100K test kits per day by the end of February. If only we asked. Instead by 3/8 the US had conducted 1700 tests (5 per 1MM), while SK had conducted 190,000 tests or 700X per capita more, which, combined with their effective tracing/isolating was key to them controlling their outbreak (masks helped too). And by 3/8 it was too late for DC to Boston and especially NY/NJ, as we already had tens of thousands of cases and didn't know it, because we had barely run any tests yet.
The Businees Insider article and the Atlantic article go into far more detail on the testing fiasco, with the Atlantic doing a nice job of summarizing what is in most pandemic playbooks, since in another post you asked what might have triggered a kind of "emergency response" to act and not having surveillance/testing clearly would have, as per below. And not only that, but public health officials all over the US were screaming at the CDC from mid-Feb on about the testing kits. A small aside: if we had had testing working, we'd have known about community transmission in early Feb instead of the end of Feb as the Seattle Flu Study wanted to test flu samples but weren't allowed - knowing that weeks earlier would've been huge. This was a very well known issue. Even I first posted on the critical nature of testing on 2/8 and I barely knew anything about pandemics at that point.
Except for one thing. The plan took as a given that a functional testing apparatus would catch diseases on the way in, or at least before the fire started raging. Under its “Planning Assumptions” section, the second bullet point read, “There will be a need for heightened global, national and local surveillance.” Surveillance is public-health jargon for testing and the system that surrounds it. The planners knew there would be a need; they barely considered that it would not be met.
“A heightened local surveillance system … serves as an early warning system for potential pandemics and a critical component of pandemic response plans,” they wrote in another section of the report. “Local surveillance during a pandemic outbreak provides important information regarding the severity of disease, characteristics of the affected population, and impacts on the healthcare system.”
For every contingency that was considered, every difficulty and problem was assumed to be downstream of the high-quality information that would flow from the testing system. Without data about American cases in hand, how to handle the virus would become a matter of guesswork, not judgment.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...-state-labs-to-receive-inconclusive-results-7
https://www.euro.who.int/en/countri...f-defence-against-novel-coronavirus-in-europe
https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/seegene-covid-19-assay/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-are-sick-lost-february/608521/
Post on 3/13:
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/190...-outbreak-2020/?do=findComment&comment=189951
For those who might not know the details, the major test issues were publicized on Feb 12th. This is when scrutiny of the CDC's approach should have shifted into high gear as there were major red flags before that, since FDA didn't approve the CDC test until 2/4, two weeks after the WHO approved the German test. Knowing one has major problems with the most important diagnostic tool in the battle against the virus and then doing nothing for several weeks other than watching the CDC continue to founder is negligent for the Chief Executive of the Executive Branch (CDC).
In the real world, with a supply chain, it's bad practice to be sole-sourced and it's even worse to be sole-sourced with a flawed "material" (test kits in this case) that doesn't meet one's needs - especially when there's a perfectly good supply of that "material" available on the market - people who make decisions like that get fired. I have zero problem with trying to fix the issues with the CDC test, but it's unfathomable that ordering parallel supplies of the other test wasn't done (and I'm not saying on 2/12 the day it was publicized, but certainly within a week or so, when it had become clear that the issue was not being solved), so we wouldn't be caught without any significant testing capability, which is what occurred.
Here's the timeline...
- The German-developed test was approved by the WHO on January 20th (China obviously had tests in place before this but hadn't shared them).
- By February 6, WHO began shipping 250K tests to 159 labs worldwide, so high volume testing was available by then (and other countries went further, like South Korea, manufacturing huge numbers of test kits that they've sent to other countries)
- CDC published its test on Jan 24th, but the test wasn't approved by the FDA until Feb 4th.
- The CDC shipped 90 test kits to state public health labs on February 6 and 7.
- The CDC announced the issues with its tests on February 12. In response to the error, the agency said it would replace the ingredient and manufacture new tests.
- By the end of February, only three of the nation's more than 100 public-health labs had verified the CDC test for use.
- It's March 13th and we still don't have unlimited capacity for testing everyone who should be tested, which is anyone with symptoms or who has been in contact with someone with coronavirus.
It's never been more obvious FKR, but I do like your new name better.
You're starting to come out of your shell with the immaturity that got you in trouble.
I won't let you rope me into your basement banterings either.
You just posted complete gibberish that has nothing to do with responding to my post. To not acknowledge that the relative per capita case rates are far, far, far more important than any underlying condition in populations in determining total deaths is simply astonishing. If Dr. Davidson were here, he'd have failed you on this one.
Even UT kept liquor stores open. And closed churches.
yup all of these other states made the same decisions about liquor stores, yet Murphy doesn't know what he is doing at all. Substance abuse is a real issue.
I guess you haven't been paying attention because it hasn't, but please continue to exist in your fantasy world.
This has been known for 2 months, since late April, when the first antibody tests of NY came in showing 12.3% infected in NY (or 2.46MM vs. the 295K positive viral PCR tests at that time, which was a ratio of 8.3 actual infections vs. what was officially recorded - pretty close to 10 to 1. The obvious source of the discrepancy is that most mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic (but infected) people never took the viral PCR test (and for months, only people with significant symptoms were encouraged to be tested).
Other seroprevalance testing has shown fairly similar ratios of total infected divided by total positive viral tests. 20MM works out to about 6% of the population, which is why I've been saying about 5% likely being infected in the US for awhile, although the truth is it likely ranges from 1% in some barely touched areas to 40% in places like the Bronx, with 5-6% being the country average. CDC has said they're doing antibody testing across the US, but have not released anything yet - that will be interesting to see when it comes out.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-covid-19-cases-u-s-may-be-10-n1232134
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My argument all along has been about limiting harm. I'll slow it down a lot. Try and focus, I know it's hard. We have to make a choice on how to handle this by limiting harm. What choices do we make? If we go all the way to one end of the spectrum, we do nothing. That would be unacceptable because too many people would die from the virus.
Ok, try and stay with me. On the other end of the spectrum, we shut down every single business that exists and don't allow anyone to leave their home. We stay in that position until the virus is completely gone. This would also be unacceptable because we would all die of starvation. I know I'm not a scientist, but starvation is 100% fatal. Just trust me on that.
So what do we do? We have to make choices that fall somewhere in between. Those choices need to be made in order to limit harm. Please don't assume that I want people to die? I don't know where that is coming from. We have to eat. In order to do that, someone is going to get exposed and some people die from this. I'm sorry, that's the way life works.
You clearly want to change this to a political rant about Trump when I never even brought him up. So just quit this discussion and rant about Trump somewhere else.
I was having a discussion and simply voicing my opinion based on facts. A little advice, try and calm down before you fly off the handle and start typing insults at me. You're just going to get it right back at you.
We needed to lock down for the time we did. We are doing the right thing and re-opening slowly.
I didn't insult you I just said it was a dumb question that you asked. As someone who has known a few people with substance abuse problems, the decision to try and force those people off such substances in a cold turkey manner would be a public health fiasco, and would lead to fewer open hospital beds and more sick people. I am very calm.
That was 10 posts in a row Formerly. New board record! Congrats!
Go back and read the all the threads. I was clearly willing to have a discussion when you started with the insults. Maybe your family and people around you put up with it, but I don't. Your going to get it right back.
I'm not trying to have a discussion about substance abuse. I only brought it up because I'm trying to point out the absurdity of picking liquor stores as a business to survive while others die. Liquor stores should have stayed open as well as other businesses.
Not sure if there's any way to get this thread back on a more informational/scientific track, but I'll try. New preprint with some more tantalizing T-cell (white blood cells that can kill virus-infected cells) cross-reactivity findings in unexposed donors, with the bit, below in italics, being especially intriguing with regard to "heterologous immunity" (previous exposure to virus A providing some native immunity to virus B).
Scientists really need to figure this out, as having any sizable portion of those 81% of people - who had never been exposed to COVID, but who have active T-cell immune responses to the novel coronavirus - actually having partial or complete immunity to the coronavirus,would be...a gamechanger. From what I've read, "figuring this out" will be extraordinarily difficult (as per the post above which highlights another article on this topic). Even if the native immunity levels are not enough for immunity, this research may point the way to what is needed in any vaccine. This is the third study showing some level of cross-reactivity in never-before-infected people (and this was 185 people, not 10).
“In our study we identified and characterized the exact T-cell epitopes that govern SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactivity and proved similarity to human common cold coronaviruses regarding individual peptide sequences, physiochemical and HLA-binding properties30,31. Notably, we detected SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive T cells in 81% of unexposed individuals. To determine if these T-cells indeed mediate heterologous immunity and whether this explains the relatively small proportion of severely ill or, even in general, infected patients during this pandemic32,33, a dedicated study using e.g. a matched case control, or retrospective cohort design applying our cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes would be required.”*
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1
This related "viewpoint" article in the Journal of Clinical Investigation on innate immunity and priming it with various substrates was also interesting.
https://www.jci.org/articles/view/140530
We did the right thing by locking down everything at first. Once new information comes in, we should make informed decisions and take into account the welfare of ALL people, not just randomly put some people out of business forever when it wasn't necessary.
Fair question. As I've posted a few times with some compelling studies, I'm absolutely 100% convinced that distancing, combined with mask-wearing when distancing isn't possible would drive transmission rates and deaths to near zero and allow a return to semi-normal life, with almost everyone back at work and public events allowed, except people would have to wear masks in public and even visiting friends/family that can't be 100% known to be virus free. Are you willing to wear a mask to achieve that? Would still need testing/tracing to stamp out flare-ups (as they've been doing in the Asian countries that have controlled the outbreak). We do that until we have a cure/vaccine, which I hope is not that far off.
That's now 5 of your goon squad who have called me that. New Board Record! Congrats Formerly!
I merely said you asked a dumb question. If you cannot take the heat stay out of the kitchen.
The science is behind the actions taken. Fitness centers for instance were a great call. As were bars and restaurants. Super-spreader events happened in SK at those type of venues. There is a reason many of the states grouped the places opening back up the way that they did, and that such groupings were similar.
I take it "connect the dots" was not a game you excelled at as a lad?
I agree and yes, I'm willing to wear a mask.
Like I said, maybe you can act that way with your wife and children. Not with me.
Not sure what that means but 10 hair trigger posts in a row is a new record. Even the moniker you used before the perma ban never got that done.
How dense can you be? I slowed it down for Greg2020. Go back and read it. I really slowed it down. Try and stay focused. I know it's difficult, but concentrate. If you can't follow it, try looking at #'s post. Maybe you can understand it there.
Thx for the link. I agree with the author. However, alot of people cant afford to eat right. Carbs are cheaper than protein.
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Liquor stores = tax revenue; church = tax exempt.
Took a few days off from the thread and wow...it has really devolved. Regardless, I believe we have done the thread a disservice by not including more talk regarding the role of nutrition and covid. There have been some passing mentions of obesity and it is an undisputed leading risk factor but there is more to explore here. Obesity is a function of the western diet and the way we eat is egregiously pro inflammatory. Adipose tissue is a key mediator in the inflammatory response and this has been known for a while. We know microinflammation is a driver of many of our most common health problems. Those health problems are also our largest covid risk factors. Unless you've been hibernating the last 4 months you already know that type 2 diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease and systemic vasculopathy are the most prominent risk factors after age. What does each one, without exception have in common? Inflammation. Bottom line...I think a closer look at the American diet deserves a lot of blame in reference to the disproportionate number of cases in the US. The book entitled The China Study does a wonderful job highlighting the consequences and comparisons of the western diet vs the Asian diet (though I am no advocate of eliminating animal proteins altogether).
I'll add two clinical observations related to obesity and inflammation to underscore their importance in overall health. Cardiologists know that inflammation can manifest as seemingly minor observances like gingivitis because they know that this can be a picture into heart health and will typically extol the virtues of good oral hygiene. Clinically, in the ICU it is also known that obese patients with a short, thick neck have more trouble extubating in a timely fashion. Make no mistake, their is a bigger link between covid infection/mortality rates and our diet in the US than we have acknowledged thus far.
I'm now on day 7 of waiting for test results. Wife and I have been isolating, not going to work, will probably have to cancel our vacation next month etc. Test was offered at my local Rite Aid through a Google-based company called Project Baseline. No doctors note required. At this point I suspect they've lost my test. Their customer service is a joke, there's no number to call, only an email, which they don't answer.
I wonder if I should try and get tested somewhere else now. Is anyone aware of a place to get tested with a decent turn around (something near camden county)? To complicate things I am in between primary care doctors because my doctor retired before this Covid mess started, and I was waiting until this passed to find a new one. Because of this I don't know how I'd possibly obtain a doctors note/prescription for a test
I wonder if I should try and get tested somewhere else now. Is anyone aware of a place to get tested with a decent turn around (something near camden county)? To complicate things I am in between primary care doctors because my doctor retired before this Covid mess started, and I was waiting until this passed to find a new one. Because of this I don't know how I'd possibly obtain a doctors note/prescription for a test
You are not helping out the stereotype that engineers have poor reading comp. Obesity increases the likelihood of serious complications by 4x to 6x. Not your downplayed 2x which you pulled out of thin air. Please stick to the facts instead of personal attacks (which is your MO when you get angry).
Check with your county. I just had the saliva test yesterday for free, received a phone call telling me where to go for testing. Results in 24-48 hours.
You're welcome! Carbs may by cheaper, but how can SK have 1/10 of the obesity rate with a much lower income/GDP per capita if it's only about cost? Something else is driving this. Perhaps culture and availability? Perhaps lack of knowledge?
Turkey is not far behind the US in terms of obiesity, but they have a very low death rate due to Covid But they also perscribe hydrochloiquine to all positive patients
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