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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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RUBOB72 said:
You sorry ass ....isn’t that exactly what your brothers and sisters out on the streets those destroying monuments and statues are attempting to do ? Your political idols Made up of moronic cretins , uneducated , jobless , drug and alcohol addicted low life’s. Want to shut up those of us who actually don’t hate this country ? Your childish gibberish and belief that all what is told in the news or on the TV boob tube is true and factual then you are beyond reasoning with... you had to be part of the everyone gets a trophy, don’t keep score and biology doesn’t ‘t count generation...keep posting you in wit.
Click to expand...
@Richard Schnyderite It is time for a timeout for this poster. He can't stop attacking people or posting about politics.
 
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You are the same clown ( only changed your posting name) and people know ...are you a Rutgers student? God I f ‘ng hope not...lol
 
RU848789 said:
Just because you keep repeating that doesn't make it true. I've outlined in great detail, previously, and will now again, why South Korea is a fair model for what they accomplished with testing and everything else, but let's just look at testing. Below is a post I made on 3/13 on the CE board (now gone), but also on another board, linked below.

It's been well established that WHO-approved PCR viral test kits (originally developed in Germany) were commercially available in early February and that countries like Germany and South Korea were also exporting test kits using this procedure by mid/late February (links below). Dual sourcing would've been easy if we had a functioning executive branch. I've managed global supply chains far more complex than simply obtaining a working analytical test (i.e., for about a dozen projects, each having 5-10 supply nodes across the globe) and every time we've felt that a particular node was possibly not reliable, our standard approach would be to dual source that node, since failure of that one node could jeopardize an entire product launch.

We could've been getting 100K test kits per day by the end of February. If only we asked. Instead by 3/8 the US had conducted 1700 tests (5 per 1MM), while SK had conducted 190,000 tests or 700X per capita more, which, combined with their effective tracing/isolating was key to them controlling their outbreak (masks helped too). And by 3/8 it was too late for DC to Boston and especially NY/NJ, as we already had tens of thousands of cases and didn't know it, because we had barely run any tests yet.

The Businees Insider article and the Atlantic article go into far more detail on the testing fiasco, with the Atlantic doing a nice job of summarizing what is in most pandemic playbooks, since in another post you asked what might have triggered a kind of "emergency response" to act and not having surveillance/testing clearly would have, as per below. And not only that, but public health officials all over the US were screaming at the CDC from mid-Feb on about the testing kits. A small aside: if we had had testing working, we'd have known about community transmission in early Feb instead of the end of Feb as the Seattle Flu Study wanted to test flu samples but weren't allowed - knowing that weeks earlier would've been huge. This was a very well known issue. Even I first posted on the critical nature of testing on 2/8 and I barely knew anything about pandemics at that point.

Except for one thing. The plan took as a given that a functional testing apparatus would catch diseases on the way in, or at least before the fire started raging. Under its “Planning Assumptions” section, the second bullet point read, “There will be a need for heightened global, national and local surveillance.” Surveillance is public-health jargon for testing and the system that surrounds it. The planners knew there would be a need; they barely considered that it would not be met.

“A heightened local surveillance system … serves as an early warning system for potential pandemics and a critical component of pandemic response plans,” they wrote in another section of the report. “Local surveillance during a pandemic outbreak provides important information regarding the severity of disease, characteristics of the affected population, and impacts on the healthcare system.”

For every contingency that was considered, every difficulty and problem was assumed to be downstream of the high-quality information that would flow from the testing system. Without data about American cases in hand, how to handle the virus would become a matter of guesswork, not judgment.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...-state-labs-to-receive-inconclusive-results-7
https://www.euro.who.int/en/countri...f-defence-against-novel-coronavirus-in-europe
https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/seegene-covid-19-assay/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-are-sick-lost-february/608521/


Post on 3/13:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/190...-outbreak-2020/?do=findComment&comment=189951

For those who might not know the details, the major test issues were publicized on Feb 12th. This is when scrutiny of the CDC's approach should have shifted into high gear as there were major red flags before that, since FDA didn't approve the CDC test until 2/4, two weeks after the WHO approved the German test. Knowing one has major problems with the most important diagnostic tool in the battle against the virus and then doing nothing for several weeks other than watching the CDC continue to founder is negligent for the Chief Executive of the Executive Branch (CDC).

In the real world, with a supply chain, it's bad practice to be sole-sourced and it's even worse to be sole-sourced with a flawed "material" (test kits in this case) that doesn't meet one's needs - especially when there's a perfectly good supply of that "material" available on the market - people who make decisions like that get fired. I have zero problem with trying to fix the issues with the CDC test, but it's unfathomable that ordering parallel supplies of the other test wasn't done (and I'm not saying on 2/12 the day it was publicized, but certainly within a week or so, when it had become clear that the issue was not being solved), so we wouldn't be caught without any significant testing capability, which is what occurred.

Here's the timeline...
  • The German-developed test was approved by the WHO on January 20th (China obviously had tests in place before this but hadn't shared them).
  • By February 6, WHO began shipping 250K tests to 159 labs worldwide, so high volume testing was available by then (and other countries went further, like South Korea, manufacturing huge numbers of test kits that they've sent to other countries)
  • CDC published its test on Jan 24th, but the test wasn't approved by the FDA until Feb 4th.
  • The CDC shipped 90 test kits to state public health labs on February 6 and 7.
  • The CDC announced the issues with its tests on February 12. In response to the error, the agency said it would replace the ingredient and manufacture new tests.
  • By the end of February, only three of the nation's more than 100 public-health labs had verified the CDC test for use.
  • It's March 13th and we still don't have unlimited capacity for testing everyone who should be tested, which is anyone with symptoms or who has been in contact with someone with coronavirus.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...-state-labs-to-receive-inconclusive-results-7
Click to expand...
Sorry you haven't made a compelling argument that comparing the US to So Korea re: chicomvirus is relevant. The US is 99x larger in land mass and exceedingly more geographically and demographically diverse. The Seoul-Incheon metropolitan region has over 50% of that small country's population-yes it's very dense therefore, but also more contained in terms of a management sphere. And, again, So.Korea was part of the WHO's initial regional pandemic declaration, and had been through "the drill" with sars 2002-04. Here in the US, NYers for example were defying social distancing and masks well into April even before the recent mass protests and riots. I have no idea what about this is so hard for you to accept.

I don't have time now to dig into the long testing part of your post but will asap.
 
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Greg2020 said:
Florida is closing bars @Knight177lb are you gonna complain and say unfair to Bar owners?
Click to expand...

No, because this makes sense. We know the virus is mainly transmitted by not wearing masks. You can't wear masks and drink at the same time. I never once said everything should just open up without precautions. Where are you getting this? I think you're hearing voices in your head.
 
New School Rules for NJ for the coming year. Does anybody see this working? How much are property taxes going to increase to attempt to comply with these rules.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...eping-new-rules-under-just-released-plan.html

--All teachers, school staff members and visitors will be required to wear masks unless they can’t for health reasons. Students must also wear masks when they can’t stay six feet apart and are encouraged, but not required, to keep their face coverings on throughout the school day.


--Schools must “strive” for social distancing in the classroom and on school buses. If there is not enough room to keep students six feet apart, districts should consider physical barriers between desks and turning all desks all in the same direction. They should also consider installing barriers in buses.

--Students can eat lunch in school cafeterias, but meal times must be staggered to allow for social distancing and disinfecting. Self-service and buffet-style food service will not be allowed.

--Recess and gym will be permitted, but school districts must limit the size of groups and mark off areas to “ensure separation between students.” Playground and other equipment must be disinfected between uses. Gym locker rooms will be closed. No contact sports will be allowed for the time being.

--Schools must set up a plan for screening students and staff for COVID-19 symptoms and work with the local health department and school nurses to use contact tracing to identify those who have come in contact with people who test positive.

--Floors and sidewalks should have tape and signs to help guide how students should walk to maintain social distancing in common areas and hallways. Schools also need to step up their cleaning and disinfecting schedules. Bathrooms must be cleaned and sanitized “between use as much as possible.”


Murphy required the state’s schools to close March 18, leaving officials to scramble to set up distance-learning plans as students adjusted to learning from home.

Parents have also been waiting for an announcement on when and if their children will return to school in the fall so families can make decisions about childcare and returning to work.

Each school district is expected to release its own reopening plan using the state guidance, meaning it could be several more weeks before students and their families know exactly how they will be returning to school.

The guidelines say districts should share their plans with families at least four weeks before the start of school to allow parents to plan.

The guidelines mean many districts will need to make difficult decisions about how to set up classrooms and other spaces for social distancing, along with how to create a bus schedule that allows for students to sit six feet apart.

“I understand this will be no easy feat,” state Education Commissioner Lamont Repollet said of the reopening plan.

State officials acknowledged getting young children or disabled students to keep masks on all day could be difficult. They also said it may be impossible to maintain social distancing on school buses.

Some districts may also need to stagger when the school day begins or modify school schedules, creating the need for more before- and after-school child care for families, state officials said.


If coronavirus infection rates rise, school districts may need to abandon their plans and go back to distance learning, state officials warned.

“Because reopening is dependent upon health data and informed by experts in the health field, districts will need to be prepared to pivot to remote instruction at any time during the 2020-2021 school year,” the state’s announcement said.

From increased disinfecting to mandatory purchasing of personal protective equipment, the new requirements are expected to come with added costs for school districts, including many facing budget cuts due to a reduction in state funding.

“To the greatest extent possible, districts should consider making expenditure from various accounts or overbudgeted line items to meet unanticipated costs and to manage their cash flow,” the guidelines say.

Schools can also tap into emergency reserve funds, but the commissioner of the Department of Education needs to approve the requests, state officials said.
 
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Greg2020 said:
Lol there is logic and reasoning and tons of posters have pointed it out to you. Shared equipment, indoor space, heavy breathing, and many outbreaks from South Korea occurred in these places. How many times do we have to repeat it? Just because you don't like the logic doesn't mean it doesn't exist. You don't seem to care about people dying from this just business that are harmed. You just go on and on about how lockdowns bad, meanwhile they saved hundreds of thousands of lives, brothers, sisters, fathers and mothers, and children.
Click to expand...

Do you ever read anything? I said make an effort. Man, it's difficult to slow this down so much for you. I never said open gyms without precautions. I have to keep on repeating it because it never sinks in. Just make an effort to find out how they can safely open. If it really can't be done, then I'm fine with keeping them closed. But we kept them completely closed for three months. We never made an effort to use science to help these owners out. Here's the logic. If it can be done, you do it. If it can be done partially, you do it. If it can't be done at all safely, then you don't open! This logic is so simple. How can you not understand it?
 
RobertG said:
New School Rules for NJ for the coming year. Does anybody see this working? How much are property taxes going to increase to attempt to comply with these rules.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...eping-new-rules-under-just-released-plan.html

--All teachers, school staff members and visitors will be required to wear masks unless they can’t for health reasons. Students must also wear masks when they can’t stay six feet apart and are encouraged, but not required, to keep their face coverings on throughout the school day.


--Schools must “strive” for social distancing in the classroom and on school buses. If there is not enough room to keep students six feet apart, districts should consider physical barriers between desks and turning all desks all in the same direction. They should also consider installing barriers in buses.

--Students can eat lunch in school cafeterias, but meal times must be staggered to allow for social distancing and disinfecting. Self-service and buffet-style food service will not be allowed.

--Recess and gym will be permitted, but school districts must limit the size of groups and mark off areas to “ensure separation between students.” Playground and other equipment must be disinfected between uses. Gym locker rooms will be closed. No contact sports will be allowed for the time being.

--Schools must set up a plan for screening students and staff for COVID-19 symptoms and work with the local health department and school nurses to use contact tracing to identify those who have come in contact with people who test positive.

--Floors and sidewalks should have tape and signs to help guide how students should walk to maintain social distancing in common areas and hallways. Schools also need to step up their cleaning and disinfecting schedules. Bathrooms must be cleaned and sanitized “between use as much as possible.”


Murphy required the state’s schools to close March 18, leaving officials to scramble to set up distance-learning plans as students adjusted to learning from home.

Parents have also been waiting for an announcement on when and if their children will return to school in the fall so families can make decisions about childcare and returning to work.

Each school district is expected to release its own reopening plan using the state guidance, meaning it could be several more weeks before students and their families know exactly how they will be returning to school.

The guidelines say districts should share their plans with families at least four weeks before the start of school to allow parents to plan.

The guidelines mean many districts will need to make difficult decisions about how to set up classrooms and other spaces for social distancing, along with how to create a bus schedule that allows for students to sit six feet apart.

“I understand this will be no easy feat,” state Education Commissioner Lamont Repollet said of the reopening plan.

State officials acknowledged getting young children or disabled students to keep masks on all day could be difficult. They also said it may be impossible to maintain social distancing on school buses.

Some districts may also need to stagger when the school day begins or modify school schedules, creating the need for more before- and after-school child care for families, state officials said.


If coronavirus infection rates rise, school districts may need to abandon their plans and go back to distance learning, state officials warned.

“Because reopening is dependent upon health data and informed by experts in the health field, districts will need to be prepared to pivot to remote instruction at any time during the 2020-2021 school year,” the state’s announcement said.

From increased disinfecting to mandatory purchasing of personal protective equipment, the new requirements are expected to come with added costs for school districts, including many facing budget cuts due to a reduction in state funding.

“To the greatest extent possible, districts should consider making expenditure from various accounts or overbudgeted line items to meet unanticipated costs and to manage their cash flow,” the guidelines say.

Schools can also tap into emergency reserve funds, but the commissioner of the Department of Education needs to approve the requests, state officials said.
Click to expand...

Not sure where there would be a major cost increase outside of busing and PPE/testing equipment. Other than that I don't really see where the other cost impacts there would be. Chalk and tape acquisitions? lol

Then again with the way this state works I could see them paying McKinsey 5 million dollars to figure out the exact placement of the distancing chalk.
 
Knight177lb said:
Do you ever read anything? I said make an effort. Man, it's difficult to slow this down so much for you. I never said open gyms without precautions. I have to keep on repeating it because it never sinks in. Just make an effort to find out how they can safely open. If it really can't be done, then I'm fine with keeping them closed. But we kept them completely closed for three months. We never made an effort to use science to help these owners out. Here's the logic. If it can be done, you do it. If it can be done partially, you do it. If it can't be done at all safely, then you don't open! This logic is so simple. How can you not understand it?
Click to expand...
The health department people and experts have obviously agreed it can't be done safely as of now.
 
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RobertG said:
New School Rules for NJ for the coming year. Does anybody see this working? How much are property taxes going to increase to attempt to comply with these rules.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...eping-new-rules-under-just-released-plan.html

--All teachers, school staff members and visitors will be required to wear masks unless they can’t for health reasons. Students must also wear masks when they can’t stay six feet apart and are encouraged, but not required, to keep their face coverings on throughout the school day.


--Schools must “strive” for social distancing in the classroom and on school buses. If there is not enough room to keep students six feet apart, districts should consider physical barriers between desks and turning all desks all in the same direction. They should also consider installing barriers in buses.

--Students can eat lunch in school cafeterias, but meal times must be staggered to allow for social distancing and disinfecting. Self-service and buffet-style food service will not be allowed.

--Recess and gym will be permitted, but school districts must limit the size of groups and mark off areas to “ensure separation between students.” Playground and other equipment must be disinfected between uses. Gym locker rooms will be closed. No contact sports will be allowed for the time being.

--Schools must set up a plan for screening students and staff for COVID-19 symptoms and work with the local health department and school nurses to use contact tracing to identify those who have come in contact with people who test positive.

--Floors and sidewalks should have tape and signs to help guide how students should walk to maintain social distancing in common areas and hallways. Schools also need to step up their cleaning and disinfecting schedules. Bathrooms must be cleaned and sanitized “between use as much as possible.”


Murphy required the state’s schools to close March 18, leaving officials to scramble to set up distance-learning plans as students adjusted to learning from home.

Parents have also been waiting for an announcement on when and if their children will return to school in the fall so families can make decisions about childcare and returning to work.

Each school district is expected to release its own reopening plan using the state guidance, meaning it could be several more weeks before students and their families know exactly how they will be returning to school.

The guidelines say districts should share their plans with families at least four weeks before the start of school to allow parents to plan.

The guidelines mean many districts will need to make difficult decisions about how to set up classrooms and other spaces for social distancing, along with how to create a bus schedule that allows for students to sit six feet apart.

“I understand this will be no easy feat,” state Education Commissioner Lamont Repollet said of the reopening plan.

State officials acknowledged getting young children or disabled students to keep masks on all day could be difficult. They also said it may be impossible to maintain social distancing on school buses.

Some districts may also need to stagger when the school day begins or modify school schedules, creating the need for more before- and after-school child care for families, state officials said.


If coronavirus infection rates rise, school districts may need to abandon their plans and go back to distance learning, state officials warned.

“Because reopening is dependent upon health data and informed by experts in the health field, districts will need to be prepared to pivot to remote instruction at any time during the 2020-2021 school year,” the state’s announcement said.

From increased disinfecting to mandatory purchasing of personal protective equipment, the new requirements are expected to come with added costs for school districts, including many facing budget cuts due to a reduction in state funding.

“To the greatest extent possible, districts should consider making expenditure from various accounts or overbudgeted line items to meet unanticipated costs and to manage their cash flow,” the guidelines say.

Schools can also tap into emergency reserve funds, but the commissioner of the Department of Education needs to approve the requests, state officials said.
Click to expand...

This is better news than I was expecting. I thought he would just say schools aren't allowed to open at all. Maybe he finally listened to the millions of us parents screaming that this closure can't continue.
 
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Knight177lb said:
No, because this makes sense. We know the virus is mainly transmitted by not wearing masks. You can't wear masks and drink at the same time. I never once said everything should just open up without precautions. Where are you getting this? I think you're hearing voices in your head.
Click to expand...
You can't eat while wearing a mask either, yet restaurants are allowed to stay open. By your logic that seems unfair.
 
Greg2020 said:
The health department people and experts have obviously agreed it can't be done safely as of now.
Click to expand...

If they came to this conclusion by using a study, observation, or some type of science, then I'm all for it. I doubt any effort was made. If so, I'd like to see it. Retail stores that didn't sell food had to close for three months. This was completely unnecessary. They could have stayed open, but required masks, just like Walmart did. By closing all other retail except for Walmart, instead of spreading shoppers out among many stores, we forced everyone to shop at Walmart and come closer in contact and doing the exact opposite of what was supposed to be accomplished, limiting the spread of the virus.
 
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Today's numbers. Noise in the right direction.
2.1% positivity
.86 Rnaught
1118 hospitalized
59 new admissions
114 discharges
44 deaths
I do not see the usual Long Term Care death chart, but we've been losing 20-30 a day from LTC. So a conservative number would be 24 deaths among the general population outside LTC.
 
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Knight177lb said:
This is better news than I was expecting. I thought he would just say schools aren't allowed to open at all. Maybe he finally listened to the millions of us parents screaming that this closure can't continue.
Click to expand...

He needed to get the numbers low.

Everyone across the country needs to act like this is a serious concern. Wear your mask, maintain distance, stay diligent. Do not be Florida.
 
Greg2020 said:
You can't eat while wearing a mask either, yet restaurants are allowed to stay open. By your logic that seems unfair.
Click to expand...

NJ is just now letting restaurants let people eat outside and the servers wear masks. This could have been allowed two months ago. Hundreds of small restaurant owners are going to be put out of business permanently because of the lack of action. Now, this restaurant owner lost their business and has gone through all their savings, and is unemployed. What advice would you offer them?
 
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Greg2020 said:
They would require medical treatment for withdrawal symptoms. They would also attack and injure others in their quest to be satiated.
Click to expand...
I'd like to see some source material on your assumptions. Also, do you have data on out-of-work alcoholics getting drunk abusing their families? Thanks.
 
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CE Folks, i.e., at least @T2Kplus10 @Greg2020 @Caliknight @rutgersdave @bac2therac @RUhasarrived @fsg2 @bossnj1 @BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine and I'm sure more - could you please refrain from the bickering and insults that got the CE board here and on TOS and many OT threads on this board locked down or deleted? I will try to do the same. Believe it or not, quite a few people come to this thread for useful info on the coronavirus pandemic (one can debate whether folks should come here for that or not, but they do) and we've seen several complaining (and many more annoyed who don't speak up) about the thread going downhill since the CE board was closed. It doesn't mean don't post or even challenge each other, but I think we all know that there is constructive discussion/arguing vs. what we've mostly seen the last few pages. I'm sure quite a few other posters will thank you, as we have 200+ pages of mostly informative posting/dialogue in this thread. Thanks.
 
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RU848789 said:
CE Folks, i.e., at least @T2Kplus10 @Greg2020 @Caliknight @rutgersdave @bac2therac @RUhasarrived @fsg2 @bossnj1 @BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine and I'm sure more - could you please refrain from the bickering and insults that got the CE board here and on TOS and many OT threads on this board locked down or deleted? I will try to do the same. Believe it or not, quite a few people come to this thread for useful info on the coronavirus pandemic (one can debate whether folks should come here for that or not, but they do) and we've seen several complaining (and many more annoyed who don't speak up) about the thread going downhill since the CE board was closed. It doesn't mean don't post or even challenge each other, but I think we all know that there is constructive discussion/arguing vs. what we've mostly seen the last few pages. I'm sure quite a few other posters will thank you, as we have 200+ pages of mostly informative posting/dialogue in this thread. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Fair--but you must see the obvious reality of which side instigates the bickering and insults.
 
RU848789 said:
CE Folks, i.e., at least @T2Kplus10 @Greg2020 @Caliknight @rutgersdave @bac2therac @RUhasarrived @fsg2 @bossnj1 @BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine and I'm sure more - could you please refrain from the bickering and insults that got the CE board here and on TOS and many OT threads on this board locked down or deleted? I will try to do the same. Believe it or not, quite a few people come to this thread for useful info on the coronavirus pandemic (one can debate whether folks should come here for that or not, but they do) and we've seen several complaining (and many more annoyed who don't speak up) about the thread going downhill since the CE board was closed. It doesn't mean don't post or even challenge each other, but I think we all know that there is constructive discussion/arguing vs. what we've mostly seen the last few pages. I'm sure quite a few other posters will thank you, as we have 200+ pages of mostly informative posting/dialogue in this thread. Thanks.
Click to expand...


the hubris in this post..how about looking and seeing the poster the past 24 hours that derailed this thread as he has done in most threads..its formerly....aka greg2020, not sure why you are bringing my name or the other half dozen posters on either side of the issues who have nothing to do with derailing the thread
 
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RU-05 said:
He needed to get the numbers low.

Everyone across the country needs to act like this is a serious concern. Wear your mask, maintain distance, stay diligent. Do not be Florida.
Click to expand...


interesting why you say Florida when California appears to be in worse shape
 
Greg2020 said:
More personal attacks from you. You're a 70 year old man. Grow up.[/. Remember I have reached age 70... it’s a long and winding journey... perhaps you’ll make it someday but ya never know... “Life isn’t Fair”. ..Right Greg ? Isn’t that what you said to another poster?. .. You are definitely an everyone gets a trophy kid...
Click to expand...
 
m1ipabrams said:
What do you base your opinion on that California is in worse shape than Florida?
Cases per Million and Deaths per Million are both lower in CA than FL. CA has also done more testing that FL.
Click to expand...

M1,

There is an interesting political thing that seems to be going on here. California has been hitting new case highs almost daily basically tracking what's happening in Arizona, Texas and Florida, but California is not mentioned and it even did not make the list of states in Murphy's ban. And it isn't talked about in this thread, the other day California had more new cases than Texas, but only Texas was mentioned. Texas's Gov was called a moron, but nothing about Newsom. I bet some suspect that criticism is being aimed at Red state gov and not a Blue state gov.
 
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