ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Boone NC. Went on a grocery run yesterday to two stores as the first was out of essential items. Only observed half of shoppers with masks. No employees had masks or gloves. Vendors who were restocking did not wear masks or gloves. One store had plexiglass partition between cashier and customer. We still have a way to go. I don't get this reluctance to participate, or management's carelessness.
 
Boone NC. Went on a grocery run yesterday to two stores as the first was out of essential items. Only observed half of shoppers with masks. No employees had masks or gloves. Vendors who were restocking did not wear masks or gloves. One store had plexiglass partition between cashier and customer. We still have a way to go. I don't get this reluctance to participate, or management's carelessness.
It’s crazy. Simple things that can help protect people.
 
We've talked about needing a "mask culture" for weeks and thankfully, we're heading in that direction, largely to prevent asymptomatic/presymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people from infecting others. Surgical masks/bandanas and such can certainly help to keep virus-laden droplets from sneezes/coughs spewing out, but they're not particularly protective from someone else who is coughing/sneezing close by, i.e., within 6 feet, which is why people at high risk of being infected due to high contact rates with potentially infected people, like health care workers, typically wear the N95 respirators which filter out the vast majority of virus-laden droplets. There should be no reason why people in other high customer-facing occupations, like EMS, police, fire, and, yes, clerks, shouldn't also have N95 respirators.

Now with regard to the aerosolization of virus particles and super sneezes, while it's impossible to say that the virus can't spread via breath or 27 feet with a super sneeze, it makes little logical sense that either of those happens in other than extreme circumstances, since we would have far more than 0.02% of the planet with confirmed infections if it were that easily transmissible, even with social distancing - and even if one assumes the positive cases are only indicative of 10% of all infections, that would still only be 0.2% of the population. Unless the few folks who say that 20% of the population have already been infected, but without symptoms in 99% of them, are correct, which I doubt.

As I said before, this is exactly the kind of research that chemical engineers (like me, lol) do and it's certainly cool/interesting stuff, but I think it's worst case kind of thinking. Yeah, maybe there are rare sneezes that can go well beyond a 3-pointer, but most people don't sneeze "outward" and I doubt more than a few sneezes are that powerful and to suggest that the virus becomes truly airborne (virus droplets small/light enough to remain aerosolized for hours and infecting people who walk through the wake of a sneeze 2 hours later or 100 feet away via HVAC) strains credulity.

In addition, we still don't know the dose-infection response curve for this virus, meaning we don't know if people 5' or 20' away from a sneeze would become infected from those virus-laden droplets, much like we don't know if touching a few day-old dried up virus particles on a surface can cause actual infection. It's also been well documented that about 80% of infections in China and elsewhere come from close contact in the home and if the virus was truly airborne and infectious at great distances from sneezes/coughs, we'd very likely see far greater transmission rates than we're seeing. Doesn't mean people shouldn't try to control their sneezes/coughs (mask anyone?), though or that health care workers shouldn't wear the appropriate PPE around symptomatic patients, in particular, but I don't think we need to be changing the 6-foot rule yet.


I'm not so much worried about sneeze distances, because If I am walking down an empty grocery aisles I can walk right into an air space containing the bug. With social distancing (I'm not discounting it) people can get the idea an empty bank vestibule with cash machine is a safe space, when you would really want a mask even more in that location.

Air conditioning, wind etc also move the virus around ( https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article ). Its been widely noted that some of the most prodigious outbreaks have involved church gathers. Things like singing and playing wind instruments probably force more virus into the air just as people are also breathing more deeply. Of course you know about the church where after a 2 hour choir practice 45 of 60 people got CV19 and 2 died. Something like basketball would probably by ill advised since players get up close when breathing deep.

Chris Martensen was one of first to claim CV was airborne and he did it after seeing a Chinese study. I think CDC really jacked-up by being behind the curve on masks and airborne issues.

You may be able to spread coronavirus just by breathing, new report finds

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has given a boost to an unsettling idea: that the novel coronavirus can spread through the air—not just through the large droplets emitted in a cough or sneeze. Though current studies aren’t conclusive, “the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing,” Harvey Fineberg, who heads a standing committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, wrote in a 1 April letter to Kelvin Droegemeier, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy....

“[I’m] relieved to see aerosolization is accepted,” Kimberly Prather, an aerosol chemist at the University of California, San Diego, wrote in an email to ScienceInsider. “This added airborne pathway helps explain why it is spreading so fast.”


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...d-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report-finds
 
  • Like
Reactions: scripts
Latest update I received at work.

"Team...please find attached today's daily AM coronavirus monitor.
In the US, total active infections are at 337,537 and fatalities are at 10,993. A leading pandemic forecasting model predicted Monday that the US may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators, and other equipment than previously projected and that some states may reach their peak of COVID-19 deaths sooner than expected. However, this prediction has drawn criticism for being overly optimistic.
In the UK, the government has admitted that none of the 17.5m antibody tests it ordered work well enough to be used. Tests from nine different companies have been assessed, but none have offered the required accuracy to be widely distributed.
Spain yesterday reported the lowest number of new coronavirus cases in more than two weeks, a sign that Europe’s biggest outbreak is slowing.
Below is the daily Financial Times graphic highlighting the number of daily coronavirus deaths (7-day rolling average), by number of days since 3 daily deaths were first recorded.

0
 
  • Like
Reactions: R1766U
  • Like
Reactions: jreinsdorf
Boone NC. Went on a grocery run yesterday to two stores as the first was out of essential items. Only observed half of shoppers with masks. No employees had masks or gloves. Vendors who were restocking did not wear masks or gloves. One store had plexiglass partition between cashier and customer. We still have a way to go. I don't get this reluctance to participate, or management's carelessness.

I was up there a few weeks ago. Boone is another world - so none of this surprises me.
 
So, we're supposed to believe you, but not the MIT, Princeton, NIAID, CDC, Princeton University, and UCLA researchers and experts? I'll take the word of the scientists over the word of a guy who's either gotten lucky, or is an asymptomatic spreader.

Believe what you want to believe.. I'm not lucky... And I'm 99% sure I'm not Asymptomatic either... I keep my distance as best I can...(it's not always possible, especially when I get clowns who act like they never heard of social distancing and will literally walk right up to me...) I do wear a mask, I constantly wash my hands/sanitizer... And I NEVER touch my face at work.. We constantly clean and sanitize as best as can throughout the day..(our credit card pads get wiped down after every use)
 
Boone NC. Went on a grocery run yesterday to two stores as the first was out of essential items. Only observed half of shoppers with masks. No employees had masks or gloves. Vendors who were restocking did not wear masks or gloves. One store had plexiglass partition between cashier and customer. We still have a way to go. I don't get this reluctance to participate, or management's carelessness.
Makes zero sense. Everyone should be wearing a mask of some sort by now.
 
I've been in ShopRite a few times and people are very aware of each other and doing their best to avoid each other, I think Politi has to be exaggerating his experience for the sake of his article.

The article is just about the Shop-Rite in Bloomfield. I'm sure stores vary greatly across the state and region.

Drove past a golf course on Sunday and it was packed with the parking lot full. Clearly, some people aren't getting it.
 
The article is just about the Shop-Rite in Bloomfield. I'm sure stores vary greatly across the state and region.

Drove past a golf course on Sunday and it was packed with the parking lot full. Clearly, some people aren't getting it.
Not much close interaction on a golf course, so I see the other side of the coin.
 
Just to put the human aspect of this out there. My 2nd cousin is a former EMT and now an ICU nurse in NY. He's already been exhibiting signs of PTSD from working these past few weeks. Just yesterday, his stepsister, who had tested positive for the virus, stopped breathing while at home. She was rushed to the hospital in an ambulance, where my cousin go to her and was performing cpr in the back of the ambulance, since there was no room left in the ER. She died in that ambulance. This virus is devastating our healthcare workers and families. I implore everyone to heed the guidance of the medical and scientific community. They are doing their best to save lives. While the measures may not be perfect or may be conceived as overbearing, please think about situations like these. This is real, and this will continue to happen if we are not exercising extreme caution.
 
Just to put the human aspect of this out there. My 2nd cousin is a former EMT and now an ICU nurse in NY. He's already been exhibiting signs of PTSD from working these past few weeks. Just yesterday, his stepsister, who had tested positive for the virus, stopped breathing while at home. She was rushed to the hospital in an ambulance, where my cousin go to her and was performing cpr in the back of the ambulance, since there was no room left in the ER. She died in that ambulance. This virus is devastating our healthcare workers and families. I implore everyone to heed the guidance of the medical and scientific community. They are doing their best to save lives. While the measures may not be perfect or may be conceived as overbearing, please think about situations like these. This is real, and this will continue to happen if we are not exercising extreme caution.

Ugh..sorry to hear that. Thank you for reiterating the burden on healthcare that is now upon NY and NJ, along with the precautions we all should be heeding. I think social distancing and self quarantining are making a dent to flatten the curve, but it must continue. Things might seem ok on the outside, but the accounts from inside the hospitals are not pretty. It is taking a physical and emotional toll on the hardiest of souls.
 
One detail of this pandemic that I do not understand is the curves shown seem to fall off at the same rate as they rose. Unless a significant herd immunity occurs (80%?) how does the curve not immediately start rising as soon as distancing measures are relaxed?

China announced that they are relaxing restrictions in Wuhan. As the pandemic likely started with just 1 or a few infected people, unless they are 100% clean, does this not just start back up again.

Back in the US, I would have thought that flattening the curve would lead to a very long tail rather than a race back to zero.

Can anyone add insight to this?
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUevolution36
This is potentially freakin' huge news about the convalescent plasma-antibody treatment approach. Now this is a guy who actually has some results worth screaming to the media about, but he first published it (in JAMA a respected medical journal) and is being circumspect, as he should be, since it was an uncontrolled, unblinded small study, but 5 for 5 with treatment success of people on ventilators is impressive. However, let's wait a week or two and I'm confident we'll see even more good news (this was a Chinese study with technology similar to what they're now using in NYC at Mt Sinai and elsewhere, so should have news from there soon), as this technology should simply just work, like it has in the past. Should also work as a preventative. Seriously crossing fingers.

Findings: In this uncontrolled case series of 5 critically ill patients with COVID-19 and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), administration of convalescent plasma containing neutralizing antibody was followed by an improvement in clinical status.

Conclusions: In this preliminary uncontrolled case series of 5 critically ill patients with COVID-19 and ARDS, administration of convalescent plasma containing neutralizing antibody was followed by improvement in the patients’ clinical status. The limited sample size and study design preclude a definitive statement about the potential effectiveness of this treatment, and these observations require evaluation in clinical trials.


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983?resultClick=1

https://www.healio.com/hematology-oncology/hematology/news/online/{75453a03-ea98-4c57-8b50-7997853beabe}/convalescent-plasma-transfusion-shows-promise-for-severely-ill-patients-with-covid-19

Edit: Good editorial in JAMA discussing the limitations of this very small experiment, but also the potential for this treatment, too, in the bigger picture, including what this all means and outlining what we could do, should this prove successful in larger scale triials.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763982

Update on this. A second study out of China (different research group than the one above) showed similar impressive results from the "convalescent plasma" approach where antibodies in plasma from recovered COVID patients are infused into patients very ill from the virus. And the publication was in the prestigious, peer-reviewed, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - it doesn't get much more impressive than that. If there were ever a therapy that should be considered for emergency use it's this one (and not HCQ), as the results in the first study above and this one are astonishing.

For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-06/covid19-blood-antibodies-recovered-show-promise

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117#T1
 
One detail of this pandemic that I do not understand is the curves shown seem to fall off at the same rate as they rose. Unless a significant herd immunity occurs (80%?) how does the curve not immediately start rising as soon as distancing measures are relaxed?

China announced that they are relaxing restrictions in Wuhan. As the pandemic likely started with just 1 or a few infected people, unless they are 100% clean, does this not just start back up again.

Back in the US, I would have thought that flattening the curve would lead to a very long tail rather than a race back to zero.

Can anyone add insight to this?
That's why you hear Fauci talk a bit dismissively of the models. You look at Italy's curve and although it has hit it's apex it's downward trend looks much slower then it's upward, and that is with the stay at home order still in place.

Unless they stay lock down for a another couple months to get all the way to zero, and then allow no international travel, I don't see how they don't jump once they get back to normal.

Fauci also said yesterday we probably don't get "back to normal", and even that came with stipulations, until we get an effective treatment, or even better vaccine.

So I'm doubting we are near the end of this.
 
Update on this. A second study out of China (different research group than the one above) showed similar impressive results from the "convalescent plasma" approach where antibodies in plasma from recovered COVID patients are infused into patients very ill from the virus. And the publication was in the prestigious, peer-reviewed, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - it doesn't get much more impressive than that. If there were ever a therapy that should be considered for emergency use it's this one (and not HCQ), as the results in the first study above and this one are astonishing.

For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-06/covid19-blood-antibodies-recovered-show-promise

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117#T1

Wow, what are the next steps here? Assuming the rules around the different trials and tests for vaccines or antivirals is different from this?

Also, is this scalable? How many people does each person that donates blood treat?
 
Fauci also said yesterday we probably don't get "back to normal", and even that came with stipulations, until we get an effective treatment, or even better vaccine.

IMO, this has to be true. I am not a statistician and do not understand all the details of the models but any fall off in the curve does not make sense to me. I do believe that the current amount of SD clearly has had a beneficial impact and has slowed down the growth of cases on a per day basis. It seems to me, however, that unless we continue to get better and better as SD, that its effect is already established after 14 days (or so). If that is the case, then we should plateau at some level of cases per day (perhaps the 75K-ish worldwide number we see now) but then stay there until a significant percent of the population starves the virus of new targets. I don't see how the same level of SD will reduce the number after several weeks of result. Maybe someone can show me what I am missing here.

Despite the pessimistic nature of this post, I am extremely optimistic about the potential for a significant treatment/cure/vaccine in the near future. The effort and level of cooperation to eradicate this virus worldwide is unprecedented. Seems to me that the human race can come together and fix this problem.
 
Update on this. A second study out of China (different research group than the one above) showed similar impressive results from the "convalescent plasma" approach where antibodies in plasma from recovered COVID patients are infused into patients very ill from the virus. And the publication was in the prestigious, peer-reviewed, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - it doesn't get much more impressive than that. If there were ever a therapy that should be considered for emergency use it's this one (and not HCQ), as the results in the first study above and this one are astonishing.

For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-06/covid19-blood-antibodies-recovered-show-promise

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117#T1
how much for Philly?
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
IMO, this has to be true. I am not a statistician and do not understand all the details of the models but any fall off in the curve does not make sense to me. I do believe that the current amount of SD clearly has had a beneficial impact and has slowed down the growth of cases on a per day basis. It seems to me, however, that unless we continue to get better and better as SD, that its effect is already established after 14 days (or so). If that is the case, then we should plateau at some level of cases per day (perhaps the 75K-ish worldwide number we see now) but then stay there until a significant percent of the population starves the virus of new targets. I don't see how the same level of SD will reduce the number after several weeks of result. Maybe someone can show me what I am missing here.

Despite the pessimistic nature of this post, I am extremely optimistic about the potential for a significant treatment/cure/vaccine in the near future. The effort and level of cooperation to eradicate this virus worldwide is unprecedented. Seems to me that the human race can come together and fix this problem.
But we don't have to get this to zero. If a growing percentage of the population develops the antibodies, and seasonal changes reduce Covids ability to survive on surfaces, we will simulataneously be reducing transmissibility while development ng therapies can make it less fatal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scarlet16E
China announced that they are relaxing restrictions in Wuhan. As the pandemic likely started with just 1 or a few infected people, unless they are 100% clean, does this not just start back up again.

Back in the US, I would have thought that flattening the curve would lead to a very long tail rather than a race back to zero.

Can anyone add insight to this?
I've seen a few twitter posts claiming that apartment complexes in Hubei were locked down again because a new case or cases occurred. Not a massive lockdown, not city-wide, just a complex here and there. I suspect they'll be battling this for a long time, as will the rest of us.

As for the curves, I would think we'll see a very gradual decline, perhaps plateauing at times. Should be flatter than the curve on the way up but distribution of testing might distort the curve. We don't really know how rapidly cases grew especially in the early period when no testing was being done.
 
I've been giving high grades to Murphy but closing State Parks is a mistake, I've been going to Hartshorne Woods to ride every other day (including today) and while the lot is busy people have been very good at keeping distances from each other, just something wrong about closing the woods.

What they should have done is have restrictions, no picnics, no loitering and have a limit of two people together.

I had a talk with a Highlands cop who pulled into the parking lot about it and he too thought it was a bad move, when I mentioned to him how I wonder if the suicides and domestic abuses will spike and he jumped right on that and said they are starting to see a rise in domestic abuses.
 
Latest update I received from work.

"
Team,

Please find our revised PM coronavirus monitor attached. Please disregard the previous edition sent moments ago.

In the US, confirmed cases continue to rise, now topping 386,817 nationwide. Active infections in the US stand at 354,341 this afternoon, with 12,285 deaths and 20,191 patients recovered.

While urban areas experience high death rates, less population-dense areas such as New Orleans and Albany, Georgia have a higher death rate per 100,000 people, suggesting rural America is not immune to the high fatality rates we are now seeing in cities across the country. It may only be a matter of time before rates begin to spike in smaller metro areas across the US if community spread mitigation and social distancing is not maintained.

New York has suffered its deadliest day so far in the COVID-19 pandemic, with 731 fatalities reported in the last 24 hours. Confirmed cases now stand at 138,836 across the state (+ 7,597, +5.79%) and fatalities now stand at 5,489.
New Jersey continues to see an acceleration in cases, with 44,416 confirmed as of this afternoon (+ 3,326, +8.09%). In response to citizens crowding parks, Gov. Phil Murphy announced he would extend his initial emergency order by 30 days and close all state and county parks to encourage social distancing.

In Europe, Paris has taken the unusual step of banning all outdoor exercise outside of the hours of 7 PM to 10 AM to stress social distancing further. According to officials, France has not yet reached the peak of its infectious curve.

Below is the daily New York Times graphic plotting deaths by state, in states with at least 25 deaths.

0
 
I've been giving high grades to Murphy but closing State Parks is a mistake, I've been going to Hartshorne Woods to ride every other day (including today) and while the lot is busy people have been very good at keeping distances from each other, just something wrong about closing the woods.

What they should have done is have restrictions, no picnics, no loitering and have a limit of two people together.

I had a talk with a Highlands cop who pulled into the parking lot about it and he too thought it was a bad move, when I mentioned to him how I wonder if the suicides and domestic abuses will spike and he jumped right on that and said they are starting to see a rise in domestic abuses.
They can’t seem to selectively enforce so because you have a few idiots or certain parks too crowded you deprive everyone. That’s a real shame. So everyone can stay home eat their delivered fast food drink get fat and beat their spouse.
 
I've seen a few twitter posts claiming that apartment complexes in Hubei were locked down again because a new case or cases occurred. Not a massive lockdown, not city-wide, just a complex here and there. I suspect they'll be battling this for a long time, as will the rest of us.

As for the curves, I would think we'll see a very gradual decline, perhaps plateauing at times. Should be flatter than the curve on the way up but distribution of testing might distort the curve. We don't really know how rapidly cases grew especially in the early period when no testing was being done.
Latest update I received from work.

"
Team,

Please find our revised PM coronavirus monitor attached. Please disregard the previous edition sent moments ago.

In the US, confirmed cases continue to rise, now topping 386,817 nationwide. Active infections in the US stand at 354,341 this afternoon, with 12,285 deaths and 20,191 patients recovered.

While urban areas experience high death rates, less population-dense areas such as New Orleans and Albany, Georgia have a higher death rate per 100,000 people, suggesting rural America is not immune to the high fatality rates we are now seeing in cities across the country. It may only be a matter of time before rates begin to spike in smaller metro areas across the US if community spread mitigation and social distancing is not maintained.

New York has suffered its deadliest day so far in the COVID-19 pandemic, with 731 fatalities reported in the last 24 hours. Confirmed cases now stand at 138,836 across the state (+ 7,597, +5.79%) and fatalities now stand at 5,489.
New Jersey continues to see an acceleration in cases, with 44,416 confirmed as of this afternoon (+ 3,326, +8.09%). In response to citizens crowding parks, Gov. Phil Murphy announced he would extend his initial emergency order by 30 days and close all state and county parks to encourage social distancing.

In Europe, Paris has taken the unusual step of banning all outdoor exercise outside of the hours of 7 PM to 10 AM to stress social distancing further. According to officials, France has not yet reached the peak of its infectious curve.

Below is the daily New York Times graphic plotting deaths by state, in states with at least 25 deaths.

0
Work is mistaken. Case growth is not only decelerating in NJ, it dropped at least two of the last four days, if not three.
 
I was involved in an interesting conference call yesterday in which hydroxychloroquine was discussed. Participants included medical professionals from around the country. One indicated that they had seen remarkable recoveries in patients treated with HCQ. That claim prompted a backlash from a few others who indicated that they had not seen that with HCQ alone or in combination with AZ or zinc, and even had patients die while treated with HCQ. The discussion got a bit heated.

Although only anecdotal evidence was offered in the call, my take is that if HCQ offers a benefit, it probably is mostly beneficial as an earlier treatment, and less beneficial after the disease progresses past the ventilator stage.

Certainly this confirms the need for structured studies, not just anecdotal evidence, to see if HCQ is beneficial and when it is most beneficial.

Also hinted at during the call were other potential existing drugs (approved for other diseases) which have showed efficacy in vitro and in preliminary human treatment.
 
CoVid-19 effect on the lungs of a 59 year-old.. a few minutes in.. 2:29 or so.. they show video of the lungs in 3D.. this is old (mid-late March) but I just came across it

 
  • Like
Reactions: redking
Update on this. A second study out of China (different research group than the one above) showed similar impressive results from the "convalescent plasma" approach where antibodies in plasma from recovered COVID patients are infused into patients very ill from the virus. And the publication was in the prestigious, peer-reviewed, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - it doesn't get much more impressive than that. If there were ever a therapy that should be considered for emergency use it's this one (and not HCQ), as the results in the first study above and this one are astonishing.

For 10 patients severely ill with the new coronavirus, a single dose of antibodies drawn from the blood of people who had recovered from COVID-19 appeared to save lives, shorten the duration of symptoms, improve oxygen levels and speed up viral clearance, newly published research reports.

The preliminary findings emerged from a “pilot study” published Monday in the journal PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Conducted at three hospitals in China, it underscored the promise of harvesting immune antibodies from recovered people (a therapy also known as convalescent plasma) and administering them to people battling a severe case of COVID-19.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-06/covid19-blood-antibodies-recovered-show-promise

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/02/2004168117#T1
@LETSGORU91 @RUfubar - just curious on your take on whether you'd rather be using convalescent plasma as an "emergency last resort treatment" or HCQ/HCQ-combo (or if you don't think we should be trying unproven treatments)? You know what I think, but I don't have the medical knowledge you guys have. Thanks. And any other docs feel free to weigh on (can't always tell who's an MD here).
 
I was involved in an interesting conference call yesterday in which hydroxychloroquine was discussed. Participants included medical professionals from around the country. One indicated that they had seen remarkable recoveries in patients treated with HCQ. That claim prompted a backlash from a few others who indicated that they had not seen that with HCQ alone or in combination with AZ or zinc, and even had patients die while treated with HCQ. The discussion got a bit heated.

Although only anecdotal evidence was offered in the call, my take is that if HCQ offers a benefit, it probably is mostly beneficial as an earlier treatment, and less beneficial after the disease progresses past the ventilator stage.

Certainly this confirms the need for structured studies, not just anecdotal evidence, to see if HCQ is beneficial and when it is most beneficial.

Also hinted at during the call were other potential existing drugs (approved for other diseases) which have showed efficacy in vitro and in preliminary human treatment.
I saw a twitter post yesterday from an ER doctor (not sure where, possibly NYC) who said they are seeing plenty of patients with covid who were on HCQ for other conditions (lupus, RA, etc), the obvious implication being that it doesn't work all that well as a preventive med for covid. Now, maybe those conditions predispose people to getting covid or having poor responses, maybe the HCQ will work better in people without those conditions.

Amazing how much controversy this is causing, with a few doctors claiming near-miraculous results and others saying it doesn't seem to do anything. We really need to find out if it can help prevent the infection from progressing to the ICU/vent stage because at that point, seems like the majority of people don't make it. Info from the China studies should be out soon. Fingers crossed...we need something that works consistently.
 
IMO, this has to be true. I am not a statistician and do not understand all the details of the models but any fall off in the curve does not make sense to me. I do believe that the current amount of SD clearly has had a beneficial impact and has slowed down the growth of cases on a per day basis. It seems to me, however, that unless we continue to get better and better as SD, that its effect is already established after 14 days (or so). If that is the case, then we should plateau at some level of cases per day (perhaps the 75K-ish worldwide number we see now) but then stay there until a significant percent of the population starves the virus of new targets. I don't see how the same level of SD will reduce the number after several weeks of result. Maybe someone can show me what I am missing here.

Despite the pessimistic nature of this post, I am extremely optimistic about the potential for a significant treatment/cure/vaccine in the near future. The effort and level of cooperation to eradicate this virus worldwide is unprecedented. Seems to me that the human race can come together and fix this problem.
From the beginning Fauci was pushing the strategy of blunting the curve, which limited the # of cases at any one time, but elongated the timeline. To how long? That was never fully explained, I think because he knew it depended upon too many things, but it always seemed to me that this was going to be a long term process. People were saying "close it down for 2 weeks and be done with it" but that was certainly not the strategy Fauci was trying to implement.

Japan was lauded for a bit for there control of the situation yet there #'s have grown dramatically in the past week.

South Korea seems to have done a really good job controlling this thing, but even they have not shut it down completely as the continue to see new cases around 100 per day. Though that is a # that a medical system can handle.

So yeah, until we figure out a treatment or a vaccine I think this is just going to continue on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: satnom
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT