So shutting down thousands of non essential businesses makes sense, but making masks mandatory is asking too much?
Is that a commentary on the vanity of Americans?
So shutting down thousands of non essential businesses makes sense, but making masks mandatory is asking too much?
Agree completely about thwarting the progression of this disease. We need a treatment that avoids progression to hospitalization, etc.I saw a twitter post yesterday from an ER doctor (not sure where, possibly NYC) who said they are seeing plenty of patients with covid who were on HCQ for other conditions (lupus, RA, etc), the obvious implication being that it doesn't work all that well as a preventive med for covid. Now, maybe those conditions predispose people to getting covid or having poor responses, maybe the HCQ will work better in people without those conditions.
Amazing how much controversy this is causing, with a few doctors claiming near-miraculous results and others saying it doesn't seem to do anything. We really need to find out if it can help prevent the infection from progressing to the ICU/vent stage because at that point, seems like the majority of people don't make it. Info from the China studies should be out soon. Fingers crossed...we need something that works consistently.
From the beginning Fauci was pushing the strategy of blunting the curve, which limited the # of cases at any one time, but elongated the timeline. To how long? That was never fully explained, I think because he knew it depended upon too many things, but it always seemed to me that this was going to be a long term process. People were saying "close it down for 2 weeks and be done with it" but that was certainly not the strategy Fauci was trying to implement.
Japan was lauded for a bit for there control of the situation yet there #'s have grown dramatically in the past week.
South Korea seems to have done a really good job controlling this thing, but even they have not shut it down completely as the continue to see new cases around 100 per day. Though that is a # that a medical system can handle.
So yeah, until we figure out a treatment or a vaccine I think this is just going to continue on.
No, that was an attempt to inject a little humor into the thread.So shutting down thousands of non essential businesses makes sense, but making masks mandatory is asking too much?
Is that a commentary on the vanity of Americans?
This may be the best, most accurate post in the history of these boards. Some of the most intelligent seem to be the leading culprits and they just can't help themselves. Even if it is pointed out to them respectfully they will still never see it. It's a microcosm of society. The politicization of everything is rampant on both sides. When it slows down (because it will never stop) is when our country will begin to become a better, more respectful place.Agree completely about thwarting the progression of this disease. We need a treatment that avoids progression to hospitalization, etc.
I do not find it amazing/surprising regarding the controversy. One of the things I learned in my career (about to turn 56 in a few days) is that the overwhelming majority of human beings are enslaved to their prejudices, beliefs, ideology, etc. Chemists, pharmacists, nurses, doctors, lawyers, statisticians, analysts, marketers, sales people, etc...no one is immune. I see it in almost every thread on this board including this one. Most people are blind to it. Most people never realize how debilitating it is to solving problems. The goal has to be to solve the problem by preventing and/or inhibiting the disease progression. We need a vaccine that works and is safe. We need treatments that slow or halt the progression of the disease. Nothing else matters. Period. I could care less who looks good or bad as a result of the solutions. We need real solutions as this is far from over. Politics has no place in real science.
No, that was an attempt to inject a little humor into the thread.
![]()
Aight, but I stand by my post, we should make masks mandatory.No, that was an attempt to inject a little humor into the thread.
![]()
Again, I point to Fauci and his dislike of models.but all the numbers coming in way below what all the models have been saying
fact is we are going to have cases in this country, we are going to track them as they will be in smaller numbers. Its something how we will have to live with while practicing things like not shaking hands, limiting some contact with compromised and limiting big gatherings...but life is going on this summer
I saw a twitter post yesterday from an ER doctor (not sure where, possibly NYC) who said they are seeing plenty of patients with covid who were on HCQ for other conditions (lupus, RA, etc), the obvious implication being that it doesn't work all that well as a preventive med for covid. Now, maybe those conditions predispose people to getting covid or having poor responses, maybe the HCQ will work better in people without those conditions.
Amazing how much controversy this is causing, with a few doctors claiming near-miraculous results and others saying it doesn't seem to do anything. We really need to find out if it can help prevent the infection from progressing to the ICU/vent stage because at that point, seems like the majority of people don't make it. Info from the China studies should be out soon. Fingers crossed...we need something that works consistently.
That's a nice tutorial on how the virus works, but it contains no data on whether or not HCQ + Zn would work in COVID patients. There are clinical trials going on with HCQ and Zn, so we'll hopefully see whether that has any efficacy.
My skepticism on HCQ and HCQ/azithromycin is based on lack of controlled clinical data and the small studies that have been published to date are inconclusive for various reasons (too small, not randomized, etc.). That plus the fact that I've seen reports of 25-50% of COVID patients being given some form of HCQ in various countries and the fatality rate has only gone up, in general, over the last month or so. That's not proof, but if HCQ was any kind of "cure" I'd expect to see some amazing reduction in deaths, but we're not seeing that.
By the way, if anyone is curious, despite reports to the contrary including the POTUS speculating HCQ might be preventing those with lupus from getting the virus, there does not appear to be any protective benefit of taking HCQ in lupus patients, as per below.
“Based on early data currently available in our registry, we are not able to report any evidence of a protective effect from hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. A randomized, controlled trial would be the only way to study this to get a reliable answer to this question.”
In addition, here is more of Dr. Trump speculating on medical science inappropriately:
“They should look at the lupus thing. I don’t know what it says, but there’s a rumor out there that because it takes care of lupus very effectively as I understand it, and it’s a, you know, a drug (HCQ) that’s used for lupus,” President Trump said during the briefing. “So there’s a study out there that says people that have lupus haven’t been catching this virus. Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not.”
It is not true.
https://creakyjoints.org/symptoms/lupus-patients-do-get-coronavirus/
That's just unbelievable: some models are incredibly hot!Again, I point to Fauci and his dislike of models.
Maybe that model was based on us using the Chinese govt for the reporting of new cases in NJ effective May 1st. Hey we have them do almost everything else for us.Again, I point to Fauci and his dislike of models.
Saw one the other day where we were going to have no new cases in NJ by May 1st. Sounds completely unrealistic.
Posted on the lupus angle yesterday...where the Lupus registry folks said: “Based on early data currently available in our registry, we are not able to report any evidence of a protective effect from hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. A randomized, controlled trial would be the only way to study this to get a reliable answer to this question.”
HCQ is not the answer and never had been and I doubt the various combos are effective either, but I look forward to seeing the clinical data on those, as I would happily be wrong on that. The bottom line is people claiming they have a cure to the media before their medical peers is a sure sign that they're hucksters, like our President, who should not be shilling for an unproven medication. I truly believe the plasma-antibody therapy will be the best thing we see until a vaccine, but I still want to see robust clinical data on it before declaring victory.
Tucker asking for deeper humility from the medical experts? The irony weighs heavy.
So will you apologize here if you are wrong and HCQ works or proves to be a drug that can slow the virus down...In a scenario where you contract the virus and are admitted to an ICU , will you allow them to put you on a ventilator with a prospect of coming off off of it at 15% ?Posted on the lupus angle yesterday...where the Lupus registry folks said: “Based on early data currently available in our registry, we are not able to report any evidence of a protective effect from hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. A randomized, controlled trial would be the only way to study this to get a reliable answer to this question.”
HCQ is not the answer and never had been and I doubt the various combos are effective either, but I look forward to seeing the clinical data on those, as I would happily be wrong on that. The bottom line is people claiming they have a cure to the media before their medical peers is a sure sign that they're hucksters, like our President, who should not be shilling for an unproven medication. I truly believe the plasma-antibody therapy will be the best thing we see until a vaccine, but I still want to see robust clinical data on it before declaring victory.
That's just unbelievable: some models are incredibly hot!
This doctor working on CV19 patients thinks the disease is different from what staff expected. He thinks the ventilators - while needed - might be making people worse. He says he's not seeing pneumonia but something more like oxygen deprivation/ altitude sickness
Absolutely, but it's going to take some time: there are 10,000 seriously ill patients right now and if it works for them, they ought to get it first, while the additional ~50K who are hospitalized would be lower priority. I don't think it can be scaled even up to 10K that quickly, but maybe I'm wrong on that. Need definitive data first, of course.The antibody therapy might be another thing where there is more benefit for people earlier in the disease course. Give it to people before they wind up in the ICU. It really should work but there may be too much damage to overcome once people get to the vent stage. Right now there seems to be a lot of focus on the really advanced cases which is understandable since there are so many, but there are also a lot of cases behind them that might be stopped.
Watching Cuomo's presser now and they showed their new model projections plateauing right now with the peak around 20-25K in hospitals vs. the 110K model projection a few weeks ago and even the 50K projection from a week or so ago. This is great news, as it should mean the NY hospitals are not going to be overwhelmed, per se (but conditions are still very difficult there and elsewhere), but we can't let achieving a lower peak and seeing a decline mean we stop social distancing, as this virus will come back with a vengeance if we "go back to normal." We need to go back to work, but not "normal" and that's going to be a big challenge to figure out what the "new normal" looks like.
There's no way "normal" can be allowed anywhere until we either have herd immunity (50% infected?), which we won't have as the highest estimates I've seen are 5-10% infected now (vs. the 0.1-0.2% tested positive for the virus), or a very effective treatment that keeps people from getting very sick and dying once infected, as people might be willing to go back to normal if they knew there was a life-saving option out there (since the vast majority of people won't get appreciably ill).
In my opinion, the only short term (available in maybe a month if the trials come back positive - we already have blood collection and plasma distribution systems in place - we'd just need to get the plasma to the right patients) hope for that is the plasma-antibody therapy if it pans out as well as it has looked in very, very small, uncontrolled applications. That could easily be scaled to treat tens of thousands of people at a time (there are only about 9000 seriously ill right now in the US, although we'd probably want to be able to treat 10X that to prevent people from getting seriously ill).
I'm almost certain that HCQ isn''t the answer as we'd know it by now, given how many are on it and there's been no obvious death rate decrease. Beyond that the engineered antibody approaches will be ready by late summer and they hold great promise. I just don't see vaccines being ready before the end of the year, though.
And I doubt any of the other treatments will work well enough to give people confidence to go back to normal. Maybe some of the engineered antibody approaches could be in place by late summer, from what I've read and a vaccine is at least 11-12 months away, so the prospects for allowing large crowds are very low right now.
Not at all. You continue to not understand medical science and clinical trials. I would love to see a bunch of treatments, including HCQ, being shown to be safe and effective, which is why I support 100% the ongoing controlled clinical studies on HCQ and many other compounds. As I said in the post you quoted and apparently didn't read, I'd be very happy if HCQ was a cure and I'll never apologize for wanting to pursue the best medical science.So will you apologize here if you are wrong and HCQ works or proves to be a drug that can slow the virus down...In a scenario where you contract the virus and are admitted to an ICU , will you allow them to put you on a ventilator with a prospect of coming off off of it at 15% ?
Been thinking more about surgical masks and I know many are saying not to wear them from a prevention of catching perspective since they're so misused (I've said that a few times too). Fair enough. However, it's well established that surgical masks greatly reduce the likelihood of infected people transmitting the virus to those they come in close contact with (by sneeze/cough/breath), i.e., friends, strangers, bartenders, clerks, whatever, which is why doctors wear them in surgery, an ER or anywhere patients are immunocompromised.
So given the significant risk of infected/asymptomatic or infected/mildly symptomatic people infecting others (which has been well established with this virus) maybe part of the answer is to simply assume everyone is infected and require them to wear surgical masks when out in public, which we've seen in most of Asia. And having them wash their hands frequently too (especially if they like to shake hands) since surface driven infection, while a minor vector of transmission, is not zero.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses
Interesting article below about many experts thinking that masks for the "healthy" (who could be infected and not know it) have been a key reason that Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Japan and other Asian countries have done much better than the rest of the world in containing the virus (and even China/South Korea have done better after the initial surges there and they were the masks), while many in the West/US have not supported masks for "healthy" people and that there's even a stigma of wearing a mask in the US. I think the US is on the wrong side of this one.
https://time.com/5799964/coronavirus-face-mask-asia-us/
Can't believe I've never heard that one before, lol - good one.A saying to live by: "the plural of anecdote is not data."
Do you think doctors are lying about some of the positive results?Can't believe I've never heard that one before, lol - good one.
No, I highly doubt they are lying, but I think a few are guilty of extrapolating anecdotal observations into unwarranted scientific conclusions. Many doctors are prescribing HCQ or HCQ combos and seeing their patients getting better, but the vast majority of symptomatic patients (except those that go on ventilators, most of whom die) get better on their own with just standard respiratory illness therapy. I also acknowledge it's possible HCQ is helping patients and will be shown in clinical trials to work for some patients. I hope it is. As I've said many times, I just don't like seeing people touting this as a "cure" without the appropriate clinical data.Do you think doctors are lying about some of the positive results?
No, I highly doubt they are lying, but I think a few are guilty of extrapolating anecdotal observations into unwarranted scientific conclusions. Many doctors are prescribing HCQ or HCQ combos and seeing their patients getting better, but the vast majority of symptomatic patients (except those that go on ventilators, most of whom die) get better on their own with just standard respiratory illness therapy. I also acknowledge it's possible HCQ is helping patients and will be shown in clinical trials to work for some patients. I hope it is. As I've said many times, I just don't like seeing people touting this as a "cure" without the appropriate clinical data.
Thanks. I'll let our task force know when we meet at 9 today that we can disband, bring all our workers back and go on as business as usual because RUJohnny said it was okay.Work is mistaken. Case growth is not only decelerating in NJ, it dropped at least two of the last four days, if not three.
A few posts before this one you "like" a post by wisr that calls for setting politics aside and minutes later you call the president a "huckster." Cut the shit. For all the useful posts you've made you just can't help yourself.Posted on the lupus angle yesterday...where the Lupus registry folks said: “Based on early data currently available in our registry, we are not able to report any evidence of a protective effect from hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. A randomized, controlled trial would be the only way to study this to get a reliable answer to this question.”
HCQ is not the answer and never had been and I doubt the various combos are effective either, but I look forward to seeing the clinical data on those, as I would happily be wrong on that. The bottom line is people claiming they have a cure to the media before their medical peers is a sure sign that they're hucksters, like our President, who should not be shilling for an unproven medication. I truly believe the plasma-antibody therapy will be the best thing we see until a vaccine, but I still want to see robust clinical data on it before declaring victory.
Ha, ok man. Words matter. It's irresponsible to say that cases are increasing when they're decreasing.Thanks. I'll let our task force know when we meet at 9 today that we can disband, bring all our workers back and go on as business as usual because RUJohnny said it was okay.
Just go away. Sharing the information I see. Haven't included on personal commentary or opinion on the data; people can make their own conclusions. If you don't like it because it doesn't fit your agenda, skip over the posts (or put me on ignore).There is a dark horse drug used for pancreatitis that the patent holder believes
Ha, ok man. Words matter. It's irresponsible to say that cases are increasing when they're decreasing.
I don't have an agenda. You posted something that's blatantly false. NJ has seen case declines in 3 of the last 5 days and the moving average is flat. Your place of work said cases are accelerating in New Jersey. They aren't and that isn't open to interpretation.Just go away. Sharing the information I see. Haven't included on personal commentary or opinion on the data; people can make their own conclusions. If you don't like it because it doesn't fit your agenda, skip over the posts (or put me on ignore).
@LETSGORU91 @RUfubar - just curious on your take on whether you'd rather be using convalescent plasma as an "emergency last resort treatment" or HCQ/HCQ-combo (or if you don't think we should be trying unproven treatments)? You know what I think, but I don't have the medical knowledge you guys have. Thanks. And any other docs feel free to weigh on (can't always tell who's an MD here).
NJ average is not flat. We are starting to flatten but it is not flat yet. Data I get from work comes from a reputable reporting agency and is certainly not false so cut the crap. I deal with this situation daily in keeping us operating and our employees safe. Thankfully we have had only 2 positives across our 35 locations in the US. We ramped up production right before the shutdowns to increase inventory so we were able to continue to satisfy orders even though many of the plants were eventually shut down. About a third of the plants that were shut down are restarting this week. While March showed no decrease in sales we are seeing a 20% drop in demand for 2nd quarter now. Again, those things I've stated are not "blatantly false", those are real facts. I deal with this every day now.I don't have an agenda. You posted something that's blatantly false. NJ has seen case declines in 3 of the last 5 days and the moving average is flat. Your place of work said cases are accelerating in New Jersey. They aren't and that isn't open to interpretation.
"WFAN's Shmoozer" and "some guy from Jersey". That sounds like reliable expert advice.