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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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cohwx said:
Of course it will. That's why we'll need very high testing capacity as well as the ability to contact trace/isolate people who get sick and those they expose. The current measures aren't extreme enough to completely eliminate the virus, it will be a long battle.
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The natural follow up is does our government have a plan besides extending the distancing for 30 days at a time? It's a valuable tool to buy time. But is there an end game here? This is serious enough to lockdown for a few months but there needs to be a game plan for two months down the road and I have yet to see one.
 
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RU848789 said:
Long post on whether we might actually have tens of millions infected already...

A perspective I haven't seen before is in the link below. Not sure I buy it, but the authors claim that we had 10 million cases (~3+% of the population) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 as of the week of 3/15, from looking back at CDC influenza tracking data on "Non-Influenza Influenza Like Illnesses," as there was a surge of such reports at that time - and they estimate the symptomatic case detection rate of the coronavirus as being only between 1/100 and 1/1000. I don't claim to understand all of their paper, as it's very math heavy and I wasn't about to try to check their calculations/models. Just thought it was interesting...

https://github.com/jsilve24/ili_surge/blob/master/Silverman_and_Washburne.pdf

If true, this would actually be fantastic, as it would mean we might have 5-10% (or more) of the population right now walking around with antibodies and likely immune, which would allow them to not worry about the virus and would mean any second wave would be deprived of a large number of targets. As per the post above, this is why doing antibody testing of a random, representative population is so important, so we can know what percentage of the general population is actually infected and likely immune (the Diamond Princess did show 19% of passengers with CV2, about half of which were asymptomatic). Or at least test every passenger from the DP for antibodies to get a good first guess of the total actual infection rate in the overall population.

This would also mean that the actual IFR (infection fatality rate) is way lower than the CFR (case fatality rate). In the US, for example, the CFR is 2.7% (8454 deaths per 311,600 positive cases), while if we had, say, 33MM infections by now (10% of the population), the IFR would only be 0.02%.

However, to make a meaningful comparison to something like the flu, we'd need the symptomatic illness fatality ratio, which is what the CDC tracks, which is roughly 35,000 deaths per year out of 35,000,000 symptomatic illnesses, which is where the 0.1% "fatality rate" we often see comes from. The CDC doesn't actually track and test all of these illnesses, obviously - they use models, which typically extrapolate from hospitalization rates.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Getting back to COVID-19, we know the number of people with actual symptoms is far, far less than 33MM and a decent guess of how many have symptoms is probably the number of tests we've run, so far, since most areas are only testing symptomatic people (1.65MM tested so far). So 8454 deaths/1.65MM symptomatic cases (0.5% of the US population) would be 0.5%, which is about 5X the death rate for the flu. Most projections right now are guesstimating 70-200K deaths (mine has been ~85K) from the coronavirus, assuming fairly aggressive social distancing is maintained and 5X the flu death rate would be 175K deaths, which is in that range, so it's possible this theory isn't crazy.

On the flip side, the reason i'm skeptical is that, so far, the Telluride antibody test program, where they're testing the entire 8000 person county for free, is only showing 1% of the population with antibodies after testing 1000 people, although another 2% had indeterminate results and could be positive. Even at 1%, though, that's still a lot more than the positive case percentage in the US of 0.5% (and Colorado's 0.1% positive cases per capita), but 1% is also a far cry from 10% of the US infected.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/02/tell...e-positive-results-but-also-more-uncertainty/

Another issue I have with having so many infections in March, is why didn't we see a lot more infections and deaths in Feb or even Jan, since they can't all come at once in March into April? And then I thought maybe it's possible that we had 5K infected by the end of January and 50K infected by the end of February (with maybe a few hundred deaths in Jan/Feb being erroneously ascribed to flu, as we know we had COVID cases back then, looking back at samples and people with symptoms that weren't recognized as COVID) and we now have millions infected today, actually, (not the 311K positive cases). Maybe this is all crazy, I don't know. Having a hard time reconciling so much conflicting data, probably because we're simply missing so much data, which is not unusual in the first few months of a pandemic.
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The CDC epidemiology study linked below, suggests the R0 for the virus is 5.7 and not 2.2 (each infected person would infect 5.7 others, assuming no interventions/social distancing), as many have thought. I've been quite skeptical of the virus being that transimssible (see the quoted post above). However, the combination of the CDC study, the info I had shared a few days ago, quoted above, suggesting tens of millions (at least 10-20%) could already be infected based on ILI (influenza like illness) rates being abnormally high in Feb thru mid-March (and also the Kisna data on fevers from the internet-connected temperature devices over 1MM have), and what I reported this morning from a NYC doc, suggesting that 30% of NYC could already be infected based on health care worker testing (antibody testing presumably) all do dovetail together. So maybe 20-30% actually infected is where we are now. This is why we need massive antibody testing now to confirm whether this is true.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

If, for argument's sake, 30% of the population has already been infected and is now immune, that's great and horrible at the same time. Presumably, at least, if 30% of the population has already been infected and is now immune, that would mean a fairly large swath of of the population would have immunity to the virus and would no longer be contagious and be able to go back to normal life with no restrictions. That's obviously great, although we need the antibody tests to confirm who those people are. Also, people at low risk of bad infection outcomes should likely be able to go back to work soon, although they'd still need to be careful around high risk folks, since they could still become infected carriers.

I would think some degree of social distancing would be maintained to keep infection levels low - that and 30% already infected should at least mean that any future "spikes" in cases should be significantly smaller, since 30% of the targets are no longer in play. I could imagine seeing a series of spikes over time which continuously diminish in size until we reach herd immunity (where people should no longer be getting infected), which the CDC estimated to be 82% of the population for an R0 of 5.7 (as opposed to 55% for an RO of 2.2.

The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example, the threshold for combined vaccine efficacy and herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).

Also, with an R0 of 5.7, this means that at-risk people need to take even stricter social distancing precautions to avoid getting the virus (like we've done for the past 4 weeks - simply no face to face interactions in that whole time). We're able to do that for months until a successful treatment/cure is available or until herd immunity is achieved, whichever comes first, but I understand that not everyone else is, which makes for a difficult public health choice on how far to go with "going back to normal."

There are also the conditions that many (including the gov's of NJ/NY/CT, who have said they'll take a regional approach together) have postulated we'd need to have in place before relaxing social distancing. These include instant viral testing/results so we quickly know when there's a flare-up, antibody testing to see who can safely go back to work/life, and putting much better contact tracing/quarantining systems in place, so we can better prevent spread, especially from asymptomatic/infected contacts.
 
scarlet89 said:
What do we think happens once we stop social distancing? Is there any reason to think it will not just start to spread again once we start interacting with each other?
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I think this is an important point. Unless they come up with universal testing and people who test positive shelter-in-place, I don't see how they are going to let people get back to normal w/o some kind of stop-gap medical intervention.
 
dvb91 said:
Crazy to see we're still running short on test kits/PPE and that there is such a reporting lag. By the time some of these folks are notified, they could already be in the ICU or dead, let alone infecting others.
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Correct. I think that explains why you are seeing swings in the number of deaths reported (since a death isn't counted as a covid death until there is a positive test result) and also swings in the number of test results and positive results reported, as the backlog of test results don't get reported out at a steady rate.

Here is an article I found about the issue: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/private-labs-do-85-percent-u-s-covid-19-tests-n1177866
 
More people will die from substance abuse and suicide than this virus as a result of the government actions to protect the people.
 
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check out this video of people making an effort to 3D-print face shields (this is a tech geek video.. but you can get teh idea watching teh beginning)
 
ashokan said:
Some doctors moving away from ventilators for virus patients

https://apnews.com/8ccd325c2be9bf454c2128dcb7bd616d
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They are treating the wrong disease condition. Patients are not being "tired out" and need of ventilators. They are being starved of O2 because their hemoglobin has been stripped of Iron.

Your red blood cells carry oxygen from your lungs to all your organs and the rest of your body. Red blood cells can do this thanks to hemoglobin, which is a protein consisting of four “hemes”. Hemes have a special kind of iron ion, which is normally quite toxic in its free form, locked away in its center with a porphyrin acting as it’s ‘container’. In this way, the iron ion can be ‘caged’ and carried around safely by the hemoglobin, but used to bind to oxygen when it gets to your lungs.

When the red blood cell gets to the alveoli, or the little sacs in your lungs where all the gas exchange happens, that special little iron ion can flip between FE2+ and FE3+ states with electron exchange and bond to some oxygen, then it goes off on its little merry way to deliver o2 elsewhere.

Here’s where COVID-19 comes in. Its glycoproteins bond to the heme, and in doing so that special and toxic oxidative iron ion is “disassociated” (released). It’s basically let out of the cage and now freely roaming around on its own. This is bad for two reasons:

1) Without the iron ion, hemoglobin can no longer bind to oxygen. Once all the hemoglobin is impaired, the red blood cell is essentially turned into a Freightliner truck cab with no trailer and no ability to store its cargo.. it is useless and just running around with COVID-19 virus attached to its porphyrin. All these useless trucks running around not delivering oxygen is what starts to lead to desaturation, or watching the patient’s spo2 levels drop. It is INCORRECT to assume traditional ARDS and in doing so, you’re treating the WRONG DISEASE. Think of it a lot like carbon monoxide poisoning, in which CO is bound to the hemoglobin, making it unable to carry oxygen. In those cases, ventilators aren’t treating the root cause; the patient’s lungs aren’t ‘tiring out’, they’re pumping just fine. The red blood cells just can’t carry o2, end of story. Only in this case, unlike CO poisoning in which eventually the CO can break off, the affected hemoglobin is permanently stripped of its ability to carry o2 because it has lost its iron ion. The body compensates for this lack of o2 carrying capacity and deliveries by having your kidneys release hormones like erythropoietin, which tell your bone marrow factories to ramp up production on new red blood cells with freshly made and fully functioning hemoglobin. This is the reason you find elevated hemoglobin and decreased blood oxygen saturation as one of the 3 primary indicators of whether the shit is about to hit the fan for a particular patient or not.

2) That little iron ion, along with millions of its friends released from other hemes, are now floating through your blood freely. As I mentioned before, this type of iron ion is highly reactive and causes oxidative damage. It turns out that this happens to a limited extent naturally in our bodies and we have cleanup & defense mechanisms to keep the balance. The lungs, in particular, have 3 primary defenses to maintain “iron homeostasis”, 2 of which are in the alveoli, those little sacs in your lungs we talked about earlier. The first of the two are little macrophages that roam around and scavenge up any free radicals like this oxidative iron. The second is a lining on the walls (called the epithelial surface) which has a thin layer of fluid packed with high levels of antioxidant molecules.. things like abscorbic acid (AKA Vitamin C) among others. Well, this is usually good enough for naturally occurring rogue iron ions but with COVID-19 running rampant your body is now basically like a progressive state letting out all the prisoners out of the prisons… it’s just too much iron and it begins to overwhelm your lungs’ countermeasures, and thus begins the process of pulmonary oxidative stress. This leads to damage and inflammation, which leads to all that nasty stuff and damage you see in CT scans of COVID-19 patient lungs. Ever noticed how it’s always bilateral? (both lungs at the same time) Pneumonia rarely ever does that, but COVID-19 does… EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

— — — — — — — — — — — — -

Once your body is now running out of control, with all your oxygen trucks running around without any freight, and tons of this toxic form of iron floating around in your bloodstream, other defenses kick in. While your lungs are busy with all this oxidative stress they can’t handle, and your organs are being starved of o2 without their constant stream of deliveries from red blood cell’s hemoglobin, and your liver is attempting to do its best to remove the iron and store it in its ‘iron vault’. Only its getting overwhelmed too. It’s starved for oxygen and fighting a losing battle from all your hemoglobin letting its iron free, and starts crying out “help, I’m taking damage!” by releasing an enzyme called alanine aminotransferase (ALT). BOOM, there is your second of 3 primary indicators of whether the shit is about to hit the fan for a particular patient or not.

Eventually, if the patient’s immune system doesn’t fight off the virus in time before their blood oxygen saturation drops too low, ventilator or no ventilator, organs start shutting down. No fuel, no work. The only way to even try to keep them going is max oxygen, even a hyperbaric chamber if one is available on 100% oxygen at multiple atmospheres of pressure, just to give what’s left of their functioning hemoglobin a chance to carry enough o2 to the organs and keep them alive. Yeah we don’t have nearly enough of those chambers, so some fresh red blood cells with normal hemoglobin in the form of a transfusion will have to do.

The core point being, treating patients with the iron ions stripped from their hemoglobin (rendering it abnormally nonfunctional) with ventilator intubation is futile, unless you’re just hoping the patient’s immune system will work its magic in time. The root of the illness needs to be addressed.

Best case scenario? Treatment regimen early, before symptoms progress too far.
 
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I understand the White House is using a quick 15-minute test on people who have contact with the President. Maybe that can be scaled up very quickly. But that still leaves the problem of doing enough antibody testing to determine who has developed anti-virus antibodies. And everyone should keep in mind that the antibodies appear not to be permanently in those who have suffered the disease.

If you don't believe me on the 15-minute test, check out the following link:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...il&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_tyh&wpmk=1
 
I saw an interesting theory that the reason children aren't getting this virus is because they produce much higher amounts of melatonin than do the aged.
 
wisr01 said:
They are treating the wrong disease condition. Patients are not being "tired out" and need of ventilators. They are being starved of O2 because their hemoglobin has been stripped of Iron.

Your red blood cells carry oxygen from your lungs to all your organs and the rest of your body. Red blood cells can do this thanks to hemoglobin, which is a protein consisting of four “hemes”. Hemes have a special kind of iron ion, which is normally quite toxic in its free form, locked away in its center with a porphyrin acting as it’s ‘container’. In this way, the iron ion can be ‘caged’ and carried around safely by the hemoglobin, but used to bind to oxygen when it gets to your lungs.

When the red blood cell gets to the alveoli, or the little sacs in your lungs where all the gas exchange happens, that special little iron ion can flip between FE2+ and FE3+ states with electron exchange and bond to some oxygen, then it goes off on its little merry way to deliver o2 elsewhere.

Here’s where COVID-19 comes in. Its glycoproteins bond to the heme, and in doing so that special and toxic oxidative iron ion is “disassociated” (released). It’s basically let out of the cage and now freely roaming around on its own. This is bad for two reasons:

1) Without the iron ion, hemoglobin can no longer bind to oxygen. Once all the hemoglobin is impaired, the red blood cell is essentially turned into a Freightliner truck cab with no trailer and no ability to store its cargo.. it is useless and just running around with COVID-19 virus attached to its porphyrin. All these useless trucks running around not delivering oxygen is what starts to lead to desaturation, or watching the patient’s spo2 levels drop. It is INCORRECT to assume traditional ARDS and in doing so, you’re treating the WRONG DISEASE. Think of it a lot like carbon monoxide poisoning, in which CO is bound to the hemoglobin, making it unable to carry oxygen. In those cases, ventilators aren’t treating the root cause; the patient’s lungs aren’t ‘tiring out’, they’re pumping just fine. The red blood cells just can’t carry o2, end of story. Only in this case, unlike CO poisoning in which eventually the CO can break off, the affected hemoglobin is permanently stripped of its ability to carry o2 because it has lost its iron ion. The body compensates for this lack of o2 carrying capacity and deliveries by having your kidneys release hormones like erythropoietin, which tell your bone marrow factories to ramp up production on new red blood cells with freshly made and fully functioning hemoglobin. This is the reason you find elevated hemoglobin and decreased blood oxygen saturation as one of the 3 primary indicators of whether the shit is about to hit the fan for a particular patient or not.

2) That little iron ion, along with millions of its friends released from other hemes, are now floating through your blood freely. As I mentioned before, this type of iron ion is highly reactive and causes oxidative damage. It turns out that this happens to a limited extent naturally in our bodies and we have cleanup & defense mechanisms to keep the balance. The lungs, in particular, have 3 primary defenses to maintain “iron homeostasis”, 2 of which are in the alveoli, those little sacs in your lungs we talked about earlier. The first of the two are little macrophages that roam around and scavenge up any free radicals like this oxidative iron. The second is a lining on the walls (called the epithelial surface) which has a thin layer of fluid packed with high levels of antioxidant molecules.. things like abscorbic acid (AKA Vitamin C) among others. Well, this is usually good enough for naturally occurring rogue iron ions but with COVID-19 running rampant your body is now basically like a progressive state letting out all the prisoners out of the prisons… it’s just too much iron and it begins to overwhelm your lungs’ countermeasures, and thus begins the process of pulmonary oxidative stress. This leads to damage and inflammation, which leads to all that nasty stuff and damage you see in CT scans of COVID-19 patient lungs. Ever noticed how it’s always bilateral? (both lungs at the same time) Pneumonia rarely ever does that, but COVID-19 does… EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

— — — — — — — — — — — — -

Once your body is now running out of control, with all your oxygen trucks running around without any freight, and tons of this toxic form of iron floating around in your bloodstream, other defenses kick in. While your lungs are busy with all this oxidative stress they can’t handle, and your organs are being starved of o2 without their constant stream of deliveries from red blood cell’s hemoglobin, and your liver is attempting to do its best to remove the iron and store it in its ‘iron vault’. Only its getting overwhelmed too. It’s starved for oxygen and fighting a losing battle from all your hemoglobin letting its iron free, and starts crying out “help, I’m taking damage!” by releasing an enzyme called alanine aminotransferase (ALT). BOOM, there is your second of 3 primary indicators of whether the shit is about to hit the fan for a particular patient or not.

Eventually, if the patient’s immune system doesn’t fight off the virus in time before their blood oxygen saturation drops too low, ventilator or no ventilator, organs start shutting down. No fuel, no work. The only way to even try to keep them going is max oxygen, even a hyperbaric chamber if one is available on 100% oxygen at multiple atmospheres of pressure, just to give what’s left of their functioning hemoglobin a chance to carry enough o2 to the organs and keep them alive. Yeah we don’t have nearly enough of those chambers, so some fresh red blood cells with normal hemoglobin in the form of a transfusion will have to do.

The core point being, treating patients with the iron ions stripped from their hemoglobin (rendering it abnormally nonfunctional) with ventilator intubation is futile, unless you’re just hoping the patient’s immune system will work its magic in time. The root of the illness needs to be addressed.

Best case scenario? Treatment regimen early, before symptoms progress too far.
Click to expand...


I'm hoping you were simply hoodwinked by the fancy language in the first part of the Medium blog (first link and Medium doesn't verify anything in their posts) by libertymavenstock and didn't actually cut/paste part of this from the apparent actual author and all around nutjob jarasan's blog (2nd link). Or maybe this guy jarasan (and you) got it from somewhere slightly more legit (I hope).

This guy is so far out in right field that nobody should be taking him seriously - just look at the rest of his blog after the hemoglobin stuff, below or any of his other entries. His HCQ part 2 of his blog is also completely off the rails, featuring this gem: "All that hilariously misguided and counterproductive criticism the media piled on chloroquine (purely for political reasons) as a viable treatment will now go down as the biggest Fake News blunder to rule them all. The media actively engaged their activism to fight ‘bad orange man’ at the cost of thousands of lives. Shame on them."

He's also not a doctor, which he admits, and scientifically, here's the reaction to the hemoglobin first part from a well respected MD in NYC from another board, who is currently treating COVID-19 patients, after being asked about the Medium version of the blog: "Complete BS. I don’t even know where to start."



https://blogs.lotterypost.com/jarasan

Sunday, April 5, 2020
FIFU. Quomo is not POTUS!
Fox is Fuquing Up continuously, they have Quomo on there again. Put him on NY public TV, this frinking mumbling goombah is not GEOTUS! WTF! Losing viewers bigly!
posted by jarasan # 11:19 AM 0 comments

Friday, April 3, 2020
Karma is a sinking ship.[/paste:font]
Venezuela has got the corona blues, what a beautiful example of karma!!!!!
These f'ing drug dealers with a navy deserve no less, Maduro will be gone before 2021.
posted by jarasan # 12:09 AM 4 comments
 
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Spare130 said:
View embedded media
Click to expand...


this was an excellent piece and the past 2 nights, Tucker has called out the comments from Emanuel the former government employee talking about a lockdown for 12-18 months and gaslighting on the number of deaths. yeah yeah I get it, if we arent touting the highest death totals we arent taking it seriously. two weeks ago people were putting outrageous numbers up in this thread.
 
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RU848789 said:
I'm hoping you were simply hoodwinked by the fancy language in the first part of the Medium blog (first link and Medium doesn't verify anything in their posts) by libertymavenstock and didn't actually cut/paste part of this from the apparent actual author and all around nutjob jarasan's blog (2nd link).

This guy is so far out in right field that nobody should be taking him seriously - just look at the rest of his blog after the hemoglobin stuff, below or any of his other entries. His HCQ part 2 of his blog is also completely off the rails, featuring this gem: "All that hilariously misguided and counterproductive criticism the media piled on chloroquine (purely for political reasons) as a viable treatment will now go down as the biggest Fake News blunder to rule them all. The media actively engaged their activism to fight ‘bad orange man’ at the cost of thousands of lives. Shame on them."

He's also not a doctor, which he admits, and scientifically, here's the reaction from a well respected MD in NYC from another board, who is currently treating COVID-19 patients, after being asked about the Medium version of the blog: "Complete BS. I don’t even know where to start."

View embedded media


https://blogs.lotterypost.com/jarasan

Sunday, April 5, 2020
FIFU. Quomo is not POTUS!
Fox is Fuquing Up continuously, they have Quomo on there again. Put him on NY public TV, this frinking mumbling goombah is not GEOTUS! WTF! Losing viewers bigly!
posted by jarasan # 11:19 AM 0 comments

Friday, April 3, 2020
Karma is a sinking ship.[/paste:font]
Venezuela has got the corona blues, what a beautiful example of karma!!!!!
These f'ing drug dealers with a navy deserve no less, Maduro will be gone before 2021.
posted by jarasan # 12:09 AM 4 comments

So here’s what we need to do to bring this thing to an end so that America can begin the larger recovery: Refuse to fear. The media, the swamp, and politically motivated Never Trumpers, Democrats, and the left are all trying to get you to lose your mind. Don’t let them. Clean and reload all the firearms in your home. Participate with your friends through their social media push-up challenges. Take an Instagram yoga time out. Enjoy the free American Ballet Theater virtual ballet classes with your baby girl. Or send your boys to their virtual Taekwondo class on YouTube. Live, and never let anyone stop you.
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so what is your issue here, tell me that giving this drug to hundreds of people didnt matter including some who woke up the next morning feeling 1000% better.
 
bac2therac said:
so what is your issue here, tell me that giving this drug to hundreds of people didnt matter including some who woke up the next morning feeling 1000% better.
Click to expand...

It was a post with an unattributed source, the source appears to be a non-physician whacko, and a well-respected MD I know slammed the science, particularly the hemoglobin-binding idea, strongly disagreeing that iron is being pulled out of the porphyrin ring of the heme protein, saying there is no way that a relatively unreactive viral glycoprotein is going to be able to pry the iron away, since these proteins are too robust for that.

And I'm not an MD, but I know more than a bit of chemistry/biology and there were several errors in the article, including: the coronavirus has no DNA in it (it's RNA), malaria parasites are not bacteria, and there have been many reports of unilateral ground-glass opacity. When I read a supposedly scientific article and see errors like that, I usually dismiss it, especially when it's not from a peer-reviewed scientific article. Find me a real source without errors that has been published somewhere reputable and I'm all ears. Until then, hard no.
 
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Looks like most of the coronavirus infections in the NYC area came from people who traveled to NYC from Europe, based on two parallel viral genome studies. This is why travel bans probably only really work in our modern world when the entire world is locked down. Also, given how transmissible the virus now appears to be, there probably is no way it ever could have been stopped, since by the time an outbreak is noticed, asymptomatic people would have always traveled out of the source region. All an earlier lockdown/travel ban would likely have done is delayed the pandemic, not denied it.

The other tidbit from the article is that genome analyses have confirmed that the virus came from bats, not a lab in Wuhan. "Maciej Boni of Penn State University and his colleagues recently used this method to see where the coronavirus, designated SARS-CoV-2, came from in the first place. While conspiracy theories might falsely claim the virus was concocted in a lab, the virus’s genome makes clear that it arose in bats."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/...ope-genomes.html?referringSource=articleShare
 
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RU848789 said:
Looks like most of the coronavirus infections in the NYC area came from people who traveled to NYC from Europe, based on two parallel viral genome studies. This is why travel bans probably only really work in our modern world when the entire world is locked down. Also, given how transmissible the virus now appears to be, there probably is no way it ever could have been stopped, since by the time an outbreak is noticed, asymptomatic people would have always traveled out of the source region. All an earlier lockdown/travel ban would likely have done is delayed the pandemic, not denied it.

The other tidbit from the article is that genome analyses have confirmed that the virus came from bats, not a lab in Wuhan. "Maciej Boni of Penn State University and his colleagues recently used this method to see where the coronavirus, designated SARS-CoV-2, came from in the first place. While conspiracy theories might falsely claim the virus was concocted in a lab, the virus’s genome makes clear that it arose in bats."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/...ope-genomes.html?referringSource=articleShare
Click to expand...

But doesn't this prove the travel ban actually worked? That is, it seems to have prevented the virus from coming from China. The problem seems to be that the ban wasn't broader earlier.
 
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Wolv RU said:
But doesn't this prove the travel ban actually worked? That is, it seems to have prevented the virus from coming from China. The problem seems to be that the ban wasn't broader earlier.
Click to expand...

I was referring to a travel ban and even a lockdown of all of China or any source region would never "work" to stop a pandemic of this transmissible of a virus from occurring - it would just delay it, which can be helpful, if the time is used wisely and the country is fully prepared by the time cases start to rise, which we were not (although we're not going to be quite as bad as Spain and Italy - or anywhere near as good as South Korea or Taiwan, unless something major changes). Also, in this case, the research showed "most" of the virus sources in NYC were from Europe vs. China; the opposite is true for the west coast, as one might expect, looking at relative travel.
 
I saw the NYT "study" and it seemed "preliminary" . They looked at only 75 cases and said 2/3 came from Europe (and and the other 1/3?).

China had quarantined its own people pretty well. US visitors to China were doing the initial damage. Fauci said Italy blew-up because of Chinese in Milan. Then lots of people in Europe were fleeing lockdowns and headed to US. US should have prevented that. US stopped travel from Italy but not UK. Oddly enough Asians saw how poorly Europe was handling disease they went back to China - safer.

I know the first suspected cases of CV in NY were travelers to China . They had symptoms but reporting on them stopped. Its my assumption NYC would. Then Bostons first case was a traveler to China.


FEB 1

"First person in New York City under investigation for coronavirus"

The first person in New York City is under investigation for coronavirus, according to the Department of Health. The individual, who is under 40-years-old, has been hospitalized and is in stable condition after showing symptoms following travel to mainland China.


1:00 pm: Case of the virus confirmed in Massachusetts

A case of the virus has been confirmed in Boston, Massachusetts, in a man in his 20s who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health announced Saturday. So far, eight cases have been confirmed in the U.S: three people in California, two in Illinois and one each in Washington state, Arizona and Massachusetts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/cor...-tariffs-on-us-virus-prevention-products.html


FEB 2:

"Coronavirus in New York: 2 More Possible Cases in City Are Identified"

There are now three suspected cases in the city. The patients had recently been to China and came down with flulike symptoms.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-city.html
 
RU848789 said:
I'm hoping you were simply hoodwinked by the fancy language in the first part of the Medium blog (first link and Medium doesn't verify anything in their posts) by libertymavenstock and didn't actually cut/paste part of this from the apparent actual author and all around nutjob jarasan's blog (2nd link). Or maybe this guy jarasan (and you) got it from somewhere slightly more legit (I hope).

This guy is so far out in right field that nobody should be taking him seriously - just look at the rest of his blog after the hemoglobin stuff, below or any of his other entries. His HCQ part 2 of his blog is also completely off the rails, featuring this gem: "All that hilariously misguided and counterproductive criticism the media piled on chloroquine (purely for political reasons) as a viable treatment will now go down as the biggest Fake News blunder to rule them all. The media actively engaged their activism to fight ‘bad orange man’ at the cost of thousands of lives. Shame on them."

He's also not a doctor, which he admits, and scientifically, here's the reaction to the hemoglobin first part from a well respected MD in NYC from another board, who is currently treating COVID-19 patients, after being asked about the Medium version of the blog: "Complete BS. I don’t even know where to start."

View embedded media


https://blogs.lotterypost.com/jarasan

Sunday, April 5, 2020
FIFU. Quomo is not POTUS!
Fox is Fuquing Up continuously, they have Quomo on there again. Put him on NY public TV, this frinking mumbling goombah is not GEOTUS! WTF! Losing viewers bigly!
posted by jarasan # 11:19 AM 0 comments

Friday, April 3, 2020
Karma is a sinking ship.[/paste:font]
Venezuela has got the corona blues, what a beautiful example of karma!!!!!
These f'ing drug dealers with a navy deserve no less, Maduro will be gone before 2021.
posted by jarasan # 12:09 AM 4 comments
Click to expand...
I did not get it from there. In fact I had not seen that until you linked him. That guy is a whacko. I got it on a critical care site discussing these articles:

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID...e_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173

http://www.techscience.com/cmc/v63n1/38464
 
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RUhasarrived said:
I saw an interesting theory that the reason children aren't getting this virus is because they produce much higher amounts of melatonin than do the aged.
Click to expand...

You know, I haven’t seen any real research as to why children are seemingly brushing this off. When kids get the flu they still get sick. With current infectious rates kids are most assuredly picking this up, are they showing mild symptoms, if at all. I doubt they are being tested at this point.
 
Article with how long viruses can live on surfaces...some new surfaces I hadn't seen before like cloth, money, outside of a surgical mask, etc. Also mention of extremely low probability of getting it through mail and packages delivered. Also don't forget temp/humidity affect all these things and just because living doesn't necessarily mean potent enough to infect.

5e8cdb448427e964fd756ce6


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lifespan-on-surfaces-graphic-2020-3
 
Spare130 said:
How? He's the most reasonable person from Fox news. All he was doing in the video in giving out statistics. some people don't like that because they're offended by people that aren't running around panicking.
Click to expand...

No that’s not it at all. He’s bashing the original models, forgetting these are models, not crystal balls, based on the information at that time. Social distancing worked better than anticipated it looks like. Then he tries to minimize it by comparing the total deaths against suicides, what is the purpose of that?
 
Guys, as it is with most things, it isn't black and white. Problem is when you look at things through a political lens, unconscious bias makes you take a side. Mask or no mask? HCQ - effective or not? Travel ban effective or not? How about the truth is somewhere in the middle?
 
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I just got off the phone with my dad. He is in an assisted living facility in Maryland and the Governor has sent in the National Guard in to try and get things under control. This is happening through the state.

His place has 10 cases in the nursing home part of the facility. They believe a 90 year old contracted it in the hospital and brought it back into the facility.

The bottom line is that even when you think you are being diligent this thing can infiltrate.
 
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