COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[ashokan]

Italy, With Aging Population, Has World’s Highest Daily Deaths From Virus
Coronavirus has killed 5% of known cases, even higher in the worst-affected region, versus a global average of 3.5%

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-...lds-highest-death-rate-from-virus-11583785086

 

[fg7321]

Rutgers Dance Marathon has been cancelled! Very sad always an uplifting event.

 

[cohwx]

My son's grad school classes are already switched to on-line, so he's taking them from home now (he wanted out of the NB flophouse for the duration)...

BTW...saw you mention the ACS meeting a day or two ago. My wife was going to be attending that and was agonizing about whether to attend if it was not cancelled. No longer an issue as it has been cancelled (you probably know already).

 

[RU848789]

BTW...saw you mention the ACS meeting a day or two ago. My wife was going to be attending that and was agonizing about whether to attend if it was not cancelled. No longer an issue as it has been cancelled (you probably know already).

Actually, as of Friday it was still on but Merck and many other Pharma companies just cancelled, so I was thinking it might end up cancelled. Not surprised, thanks.

 

[RU848789]

Interesting article comparing influenza and the coronavirus. I posted on this several days ago with regard to comparative mortality rates and transmission rates. Both are greater for coronavirus, which is why aggressive testing/quarantine/social distancing is needed to reduce the transmission rate to prevent this from being worse, overall, than the flu, since the mortality rates are higher (and likely not subject to much real change without new breakthrough treatments) and the coronavirus also has a significantly greater rate of serious complications.

Keep in mind worldwide flu deaths are 300-600K per year and we've only seen about 4000 deaths from coronavirus and I wouldn't expect more than another 5000-10,000, given the aggressive interventions almost every country is implementing. But those overall death tolls would be far, far higher if we did nothing. I think this adds to confusion for many, in that it "looks" like the flu is much worse, but that's really only the case if we take some pretty extraordinary steps to address the coronavirus risks.

With regard to death rates, the linked article shows some eye popping numbers from a Chinese study of the epidemic there, especially for the elderly, with close to 15% of infected patients over 80 dying from the coronavirus and 8% of those from 70-80, (but only 0,2% in those under 40). This is in contrast to the 1% mortality rate in people over 65 from influenza.

"In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported."

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[RUhasarrived]

We're all The University of Phoenix now.

You know that things are serious when Ireland cancels all St.Patrick's Day parades.Will Billy D.follow?

 

[rutgersguy1]

From CNBC:

6:16 pm: Wuhan city closes all makeshift hospitals
The last of the 14 makeshift hospitals in Wuhan city, the epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak, discharged its final patient on Tuesday afternoon, according to state media.

The city had opened the makeshift, or “cabin” hospitals, on Feb. 5 and these re-purposed venues have treated more than 12,000 people with mild cases of the virus, according to CCTV.

Last week, other Chinese media reports noted that at least one such hospital warned of an increasing number of relapses among discharged patients. — Cheng

 

[cohwx]

Interesting article comparing influenza and the coronavirus. I posted on this several days ago with regard to comparative mortality rates and transmission rates. Both are greater for coronavirus, which is why aggressive testing/quarantine/social distancing is needed to reduce the transmission rate to prevent this from being worse, overall, than the flu, since the mortality rates are higher (and likely not subject to much real change without new breakthrough treatments) and the coronavirus also has a significantly greater rate of serious complications.

Keep in mind worldwide flu deaths are 300-600K per year and we've only seen about 4000 deaths from coronavirus and I wouldn't expect more than another 5000-10,000, given the aggressive interventions almost every country is implementing. But those overall death tolls would be far, far higher if we did nothing. I think this adds to confusion for many, in that it "looks" like the flu is much worse, but that's really only the case if we take some pretty extraordinary steps to address the coronavirus risks.

With regard to death rates, the linked article shows some eye popping numbers from a Chinese study of the epidemic there, especially for the elderly, with close to 15% of infected patients over 80 dying from the coronavirus and 8% of those from 70-80, (but only 0,2% in those under 40). This is in contrast to the 1% mortality rate in people over 65 from influenza.

"In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported."

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I saw statistics on the death rate by age group for Italy somewhere on twitter last night. It was very dramatic, even more heavily skewed (but similar) to older age groups than the numbers you posted. If I can find it I'll post later.

 

[RU2055]

Remdesivir trial will conclude on April 3. It will show off the charts efficacy and covid-19 will be yesterday's news.

But hey, ya got a lot of toilet papers!

 

[RU2055]

Interesting article comparing influenza and the coronavirus. I posted on this several days ago with regard to comparative mortality rates and transmission rates. Both are greater for coronavirus, which is why aggressive testing/quarantine/social distancing is needed to reduce the transmission rate to prevent this from being worse, overall, than the flu, since the mortality rates are higher (and likely not subject to much real change without new breakthrough treatments) and the coronavirus also has a significantly greater rate of serious complications.

Keep in mind worldwide flu deaths are 300-600K per year and we've only seen about 4000 deaths from coronavirus and I wouldn't expect more than another 5000-10,000, given the aggressive interventions almost every country is implementing. But those overall death tolls would be far, far higher if we did nothing. I think this adds to confusion for many, in that it "looks" like the flu is much worse, but that's really only the case if we take some pretty extraordinary steps to address the coronavirus risks.

With regard to death rates, the linked article shows some eye popping numbers from a Chinese study of the epidemic there, especially for the elderly, with close to 15% of infected patients over 80 dying from the coronavirus and 8% of those from 70-80, (but only 0,2% in those under 40). This is in contrast to the 1% mortality rate in people over 65 from influenza.

"In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported."

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

death rate comparisons are complete and utter nonsense because there is no way to meaningfully equate the denominator

 

[rurichdog]

Remdesivir trial will conclude on April 3. It will show off the charts efficacy and covid-19 will be yesterday's news.

But hey, ya got a lot of toilet papers!

With a doubling of cases every 5 days, we would see over 20,000 cases by then, if the number of current cases doesn't gap up with ramped-up testing. That won't cause even further runs on stores, or possible city-wide quarantines, right?

 

[ashokan]

From American hospital worker in Italy writing to a friend


1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

MORE

https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538


The above post syncs with Post article from Italian doctor

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/itali...illness-shares-chilling-coronavirus-thoughts/

 

[RU848789]

death rate comparisons are complete and utter nonsense because there is no way to meaningfully equate the denominator

Wrong. They're highly flawed without an accurate denominator, but they're not nonsense. In fact I think they're actually pointing out that South Korea is the model to follow, as they've been testing like crazy (over 160,000 tests so far) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining (so not in full lockdown).

While they have 7500 cases, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues. It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously. Links below to the SK "story" that @rutgersguy1 posted earlier in this thread and to the JHU tracker.

As an aside, I'd love to know what's going on in Germany. 1281 cases and only 2 deaths (~0.2% mortality rate). Data problem, weird outlier, lack of reporting?

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[RU848789]

Wrong. They're highly flawed without an accurate denominator, but they're not nonsense. In fact I think they're actually pointing out that South Korea is the model to follow, as they've been testing like crazy (over 190,000 tests so far) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining (so not in full lockdown).

While they have 7500 cases, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues. It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously. Links below to the SK "story" that @rutgersguy1 posted earlier in this thread and to the JHU tracker.

As an aside, I'd love to know what's going on in Germany. 1281 cases and only 2 deaths (~0.2% mortality rate). Data problem, weird outlier, lack of reporting?

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

More on the testing debacle in the US, which continues. We continue to be last in the world in testing for the coronavirus on a per capita basis, which is a very bad place to be. See the graphic and story below.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3

 

[cohwx]

Here's the twitter discussion I saw last night about the Italy cases. The information is already out of date (there are now 100 more deaths) but the death rate for people under 60 is almost nonexistent (only 4 cases). For those in their 60s the rate is 2.5%, for those in their 70s 6.4% and over 80, 13.2%.

We'll have to see what happens over time. It makes sense that older/weaker/sicker people would be killed off quickly. Younger people have a better chance of holding on longer, so the death rates for those under 60 could start to go up especially if the hospital system is overwhelmed.

 

[RUJohnny]

More on the testing debacle in the US, which continues. We continue to be last in the world in testing for the coronavirus on a per capita basis, which is a very bad place to be. See the graphic and story below.


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3

But don't you need to track the number of instances where a doctor would have tested someone if the test was available, to know that we have a problem? Without that information aren't we supposing an inadequacy that might not be there?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

When the National Guard gets put on notice, you know we will be fvcked

 

[RUfubar]

Lots of information being spread around-
TV announcing that insurers are waving their co-payments for Corona testing and they're even telling people to go to the lab itself
The lab will not collect your samples and that's pretty damn important.
Pushing telemedicine is fine but pretty hard to get those swabs through hard drive
Waving a copay for testing is (whether it's EKG or an x-ray or strept test or whatever) different then the evaluation and management that is used by physicians. What a mess.
Quest alerted us yesterday that on the East coast they are way behind because all their attention has been turned to the West coast.
LabCorp is taking our orders and nobody is guaranteeing turnaround time. 72 hours or greater will be rejected and transportation is going to be a problem moving samples through the main testing facility.

 

[RU848789]

Some really good videos being put out by Dr. John Campbell a health expert/practitioner from the UK - and not just because he's saying almost the exact same things I've been saying, lol, i.e., lack of testing and lack of proactivity by governments almost everywhere, except South Korea - he also sees them as a likely "model" for how to deal with this pandemic.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnsc...reat-panic-of-coronavirus-myths/#6a2936fe2c51

 

[RU848789]

But don't you need to track the number of instances where a doctor would have tested someone if the test was available, to know that we have a problem? Without that information aren't we supposing an inadequacy that might not be there?

Doctors and hospitals have been screaming about the lack of testing capability for weeks. Don't think we need to track that to know how badly we've done. Just the fact that our testing rates are so friggin' low vs our population - especially relative to SK - should also be enough of an indicator that we're not testing nearly enough. Lack of data in an epidemic is very bad.

 

[cohwx]

Some really good videos being put out by Dr. John Campbell a health expert/practitioner from the UK - and not just because he's saying almost the exact same things I've been saying, lol, i.e., lack of testing and lack of proactivity by governments almost everywhere, except South Korea - he also sees them as a likely "model" for how to deal with this pandemic.

View embedded media

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnsc...reat-panic-of-coronavirus-myths/#6a2936fe2c51

I've been watching him since almost the beginning. Good, reasoned source of info.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Hal Turner is reporting that there's a rumor that the President of Portugal is dead,possibly from the virus.

 

[RU2055]

Wrong. They're highly flawed without an accurate denominator, but they're not nonsense. In fact I think they're actually pointing out that South Korea is the model to follow, as they've been testing like crazy (over 160,000 tests so far) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining (so not in full lockdown).

While they have 7500 cases, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues. It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously. Links below to the SK "story" that @rutgersguy1 posted earlier in this thread and to the JHU tracker.

As an aside, I'd love to know what's going on in Germany. 1281 cases and only 2 deaths (~0.2% mortality rate). Data problem, weird outlier, lack of reporting?

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It's nonsense, any way you slice it. Stick to fear mongering snowmaggedon.

 

[RUhasarrived]

More trouble:Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune are going audience free starting today's tapings.

 

[RUScottish05]

Finished some light reading on the corona virus. From what I read, these corona viruses are upper respiratory infections that have been around since the 1960s, with SARS being the most recent strain infecting 8,000 people and killing almost 800. As of yesterday 3/9 109,577 worldwide cases of corona virus with 80,000+ being in China. 3,123 dead in China.

So at first, I thought everyone was overreacting with a "hey only elderly people with preexisting conditions die". If there was mass infection in the US, statistically a lot of elderly people would die here all at once. This is actually pretty crazy.

I get that the flu infects and kills an insane number of people worldwide and in the US each year. But I imagine we forecast flu mortality each year and it is relatively consistent? This corona virus would be a whole new layer of elderly mortality on top of the flu.

I'm all for testing, limiting travel for all and particularly the elderly. I would anticipate isolating the elderly or sick at some point?

 

[cohwx]

Finished some light reading on the corona virus. From what I read, these corona viruses are upper respiratory infections that have been around since the 1960s, with SARS being the most recent strain infecting 8,000 people and killing almost 800. As of yesterday 3/9 109,577 worldwide cases of corona virus with 80,000+ being in China. 3,123 dead in China.

There are a number of coronaviruses that mainly attack the upper respiratory system, causing what is referred to as the common cold. Sneezing, sore throat, etc. The "newer" coronaviruses which include SARS, MERS and SARS2 (the current virus) attack the lower respiratory system, causing pneumonia. That's the huge difference, and since they don't attack the upper respiratory system they don't produce as many symptoms early in the illness, instead they suddenly develop a fever and breathing problems.

 

[cohwx]

National Guard Deployment in New Rochelle, NY; First NJ Coronavirus Death

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...tate-total-more-than-triples-in-days/2319688/

 

[RU848789]

It's nonsense, any way you slice it. Stick to fear mongering snowmaggedon.

Nope, you simply appear to not understand epidemiology and infectious diseases and the uncertainties associated with them in a new, evolving situation.

However, your post about remdesivir was helpful, although the jury will be out until the clinical trials are completed in early April, as per your other post. Do you work at Gilead?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ental-drugs-effectiveness-against-coronavirus

 

[RU848789]

Lots of information being spread around-
TV announcing that insurers are waving their co-payments for Corona testing and they're even telling people to go to the lab itself
The lab will not collect your samples and that's pretty damn important.
Pushing telemedicine is fine but pretty hard to get those swabs through hard drive
Waving a copay for testing is (whether it's EKG or an x-ray or strept test or whatever) different then the evaluation and management that is used by physicians. What a mess.
Quest alerted us yesterday that on the East coast they are way behind because all their attention has been turned to the West coast.
LabCorp is taking our orders and nobody is guaranteeing turnaround time. 72 hours or greater will be rejected and transportation is going to be a problem moving samples through the main testing facility.

Simply unacceptable. What a friggin' debacle.

 

[albanyknight]

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

I knew Rutgers making the NCAA would mark the end of the world.

 

[RU848789]

National Guard Deployment in New Rochelle, NY; First NJ Coronavirus Death

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...tate-total-more-than-triples-in-days/2319688/

New Rochelle has 108 of the 173 cases in NY State and NY has now surpassed Washington as the state with the most infections confirmed (NJ has 11). The US is now up to 791 cases. My guesstimate of 5000+ cases by this weekend (or by Tuesday when the tourney starts - can't actually recall which one I said) may end up being an underestimate, if we ramp up testing, as hoped.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

My poor 401k has gotten its ass kicked.

 

[RU848789]

My poor 401k has gotten its ass kicked.

One smart thing I did over the last year or so was to go very conservative in my 401K/portfolio, as I just retired and am more concerned with preservation than growth. Fortunately, I've only lost about 5% while the Dow is down about 17% since the bear market has taken hold.

 

[Wolv RU]

Interesting article comparing influenza and the coronavirus. I posted on this several days ago with regard to comparative mortality rates and transmission rates. Both are greater for coronavirus, which is why aggressive testing/quarantine/social distancing is needed to reduce the transmission rate to prevent this from being worse, overall, than the flu, since the mortality rates are higher (and likely not subject to much real change without new breakthrough treatments) and the coronavirus also has a significantly greater rate of serious complications.

Keep in mind worldwide flu deaths are 300-600K per year and we've only seen about 4000 deaths from coronavirus and I wouldn't expect more than another 5000-10,000, given the aggressive interventions almost every country is implementing. But those overall death tolls would be far, far higher if we did nothing. I think this adds to confusion for many, in that it "looks" like the flu is much worse, but that's really only the case if we take some pretty extraordinary steps to address the coronavirus risks.

With regard to death rates, the linked article shows some eye popping numbers from a Chinese study of the epidemic there, especially for the elderly, with close to 15% of infected patients over 80 dying from the coronavirus and 8% of those from 70-80, (but only 0,2% in those under 40). This is in contrast to the 1% mortality rate in people over 65 from influenza.

"In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported."

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Another way to look at this is that those studies show there is very limited risk to anyone 49 or under, and almost no risk to kids. Moreover, if you don't have a pre-existing condition, the risk is a lot lower. In short, if there is scientific support for cancelling school or events, I haven't seen it. People at risk should simply elect to isolate themselves.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


DEATH RATE
all cases

40-49 years old = 0.4%
30-39 years old = 0.2%
20-29 years old = 0.2%
10-19 years old = 0.2%
0-9 years old = no fatalities

 

[Wolv RU]

But don't you need to track the number of instances where a doctor would have tested someone if the test was available, to know that we have a problem? Without that information aren't we supposing an inadequacy that might not be there?

The other major assumption is that all of this testing would prove to be worthwhile. If ten million additional people had it in China and weren't symptomatic, and the same is true in the U.S. right now, then the virus isn't nearly as deadly as has been assumed.

Another assumption is that the South Korea testing is actually accurate. Some have criticized it for not being accurate enough.

More accurate testing will show more people have it. Since that is not going to itself increase the number of deaths, it is actually going to greatly decrease the death rate.

 

[Wolv RU]

Here's the twitter discussion I saw last night about the Italy cases. The information is already out of date (there are now 100 more deaths) but the death rate for people under 60 is almost nonexistent (only 4 cases). For those in their 60s the rate is 2.5%, for those in their 70s 6.4% and over 80, 13.2%.

We'll have to see what happens over time. It makes sense that older/weaker/sicker people would be killed off quickly. Younger people have a better chance of holding on longer, so the death rates for those under 60 could start to go up especially if the hospital system is overwhelmed.

View embedded media

The same has been seen everywhere. Since many in China were now exposed many weeks ago, it seems likely that the lack of fatalities of younger healthy people isn't simply a matter of them holding on longer.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Yonkers just canceled racing tonight.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Another assumption is that the South Korea testing is actually accurate. Some have criticized it for not being accurate enough.

For me this is the biggest issue.

 

[cohwx]

Here's the problem, though. Why was the death rate in China so low, except for Wuhan/Hubei? It's because when they realized what was going on in Wuhan, they shut down the rest of the country. This kept disease rates low and also avoided overwhelming the hospital system. Whereas in Wuhan, everyone got sick at once and they couldn't all be treated. There may have been other factors but that was almost certainly a major part of things.

Other countries (ahem, US) had the opportunity to observe and learn from this. Some took it seriously - Singapore, Hong Kong, especially South Korea. They were ready to do massive amounts of testing to identify and quarantine cases. And so far that seems to be working. In contrast, here in the US we are still in the "denial, it can't happen here, our health system can handle anything" stage. We have no idea how many are sick or where they are, except for the current hotspots. And there seems to be no real urgency to get testing implemented on a large scale. Lots of talk, no action. It's criminal, really.