COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Good stuff. Studies like these are probably one of the reasons deaths are down.
I give you credit, you do continually double down on your awful predictions. How is that "V-shape" recovery coming along?
Goldman Sachs today downgrades US economic outlook for rest of 2021:
“The healthy rebound in consumer-services spending seen since mid-April now appears likely to stall in July and August as authorities impose further restrictions to contain virus spread,” the economist and his team said......“Over the last few weeks, the COVID situation in the U.S. has worsened significantly to the point where the U.S. is now a notable outlier among advanced economies....”
That is a weird looking "V", no? And I personally think GS' chart below is overly optimistic. There is no chance before November (earliest) and late January (latest) that US leadership takes the steps needed to reduce cases and bring back the economy. No chance.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...wth-outlook-as-covid-19-cases-soar-2020-07-06
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Regeneron’s antibody cocktail moving along, includes Phase III’s. Wish we could fast forward 2 months.
https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news...s-start-regn-cov2-phase-3-covid-19-prevention
https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news...s-start-regn-cov2-phase-3-covid-19-prevention
My daughter from NYC hospital responds:
We’re already giving blood thinners to everyone Who tests positive here. Have been for a few weeks now. Ever since kids started coming in with this multi system inflammatory disorder and weird clotting issues. All their lab values relating to clotting are way off.
Good link. I'm debating on even sending (although i wish i did days ago) since this person simply has their mind made up.
Positive development. Has she shared whether she sees a noticeable difference in positive outcomes?
Study released today around antibody testing in Spain.
Some interesting tidbits, nothing we really didn’t know. But things like a third of people were asymptomatic, and a large amount of the symptomatic People were untested. Even still, they pretty much suggest herd immunity is impossible to achieve with this virus without the country going into complete chaos.
Also has a good regional map of Spain with antibody %’s
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
Some interesting tidbits, nothing we really didn’t know. But things like a third of people were asymptomatic, and a large amount of the symptomatic People were untested. Even still, they pretty much suggest herd immunity is impossible to achieve with this virus without the country going into complete chaos.
Also has a good regional map of Spain with antibody %’s
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
Even with cases rising last 4 weeks. U.S. week over week death rates down again. More transmissions less severe. Following previous Coronavirus patterns.
The answer is because Cuomo sent infected people into nursing homes and shrugged his shoulders. Murphy had no plan.
They both did an atrocious job. Meanwhile you guys hype up Florida having 50 people dead.
You can't wash off most pesticides. Most are absorbed into the body of the crop or fruit. So, you can't make a non organic food organic. It's impossible.
Show your work. Or is this just wild speculation? It's also been theorized that deaths should start trending up shortly.
It's also possible its a combination of multiple factors (much younger average age of hosts, better treatment, some with antibodies from already having the virus, etc.)
I've read it mutated into more contagious, but the severity is the same.
Mayor of Atlanta tests postive. Says she always takes all the precautions. Speaks volumes that corona going to do what it wants
How is NJ considered in the green? They still have many restrictions. And PA is not in the red. Graphic is completely wrong.
Show my work - look at the data. Also look back at SARS 1 and MERS- they mutated down to common colds.
Yes, THOSE viruses mutated. You are saying this one has, I am saying I read it mutated to be more contagious with the same severity.
So unless you have proof it mutated to be less severe, you are just speculating.
I also listed factors on why it could be the same severity but with less deadly effects.
Well, just go back to review what the graph tracks and you will understand it.
I do understand. It has PA in red meaning a 50% increase. That is complete crap and that isn't the only one.
The reason NJ is "green" is because they still have many restrictions. It is a causal relationship.
Bro, you are flip flipping like a fish out of water.
When cases went up Texas...you said only hospitalizations matter.
Now that hospitalizations are up in Texas...you say what about deaths.
Miami-Dade: ICU beds up 100% from a few weeks.
Guys like bac don't understand leading and lagging indicators but I'm sure you do.
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No it isn't. It means most of those that were at higher risk died months ago and the can't be killed again. There is no need for arbitrary risks to still be in place. The restrictions in the beginning were set up to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. We are way past that now. They were not set up to get positive tests to zero!
Another Murphy supporter chimes in. Talk about slow!
Show me the data that supports that graph. It is certainly wrong for PA. But you took it at face value. Shows how dumb you are.
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I was not able to identify a source saying MERS has mutated to a common cold. I read that to date it kills something like 30% of diagnosed cases (which are fortunately infrequent).
(that’s not to say this one won’t mutate down / or hasn’t already. Just calling your bluff on mers)
Long time Minnesota Family Doctor discusses how death certs are influenced in some cases.
An interesting watch
An interesting watch
These guys are doing mathematical function fitting to the case data, as per the excerpt below and in another part of the FAQ, it says they use number of tests and % positives in some way, but I haven't looked at the model closely (they have published the model/code) yet, but many seem to be relying on it. As you suspected, the slight rise in R0 looks to be due to the slight decrease in testing - the graphic in the link below shows the "adjusted positive tests" slightly increasing the past several days even though the actual positives have not. Hope this helps.
https://rt.live/us/NJ
Epidemiologists use fairly complex formulas looking at infection progressions over time in populations and neither of the guys from Instagram who developed the rt.live program are epidemiologists, but they are statisticians/modelers. I'm also not 100% sure NJ is using the rt.live estimates as Murphy said the Rt was 1.03 today and the rt.live site has us at 1.0. One other thing for people to keep in mind: RO being greater than 1 is much worse with a large number of cases than a small number, since small fluctuations/interventions can quickly change the R0 when case numbers are small.
How does the new model work?
In the simplest terms, it searches for the most likely curve of Rt that produced the new cases per day that we observe. It does this through some neat (and powerful!) math that is beyond the scope of this FAQ. In more complex terms: we assume a seed number of people and a curve of Rt over the history of the pandemic, we then distribute those cases into the future using a known delay distribution between infection and positive report. We then scale and add noise based on known testing volumes via a negative binomial with an exposure parameter for a given day to recover an observed series. We plan on publishing our code soon, so if you’re so inclined you’ll be able to run it, too.
https://rt.live/faq
nursing homes already pared down, are you trying to be dense on purpose...40-45% of all deaths from nursing homes
Which is the average in the country.
This is complete fantasy as neither SARS nor MERS has anything to do with the common cold other than all of them being coronaviruses. They were both largely extinguished by controls/mitigation, as neither was as transmissible as SARS-CoV-2. MERS, though, still pops up occasionally.
https://www.merckmanuals.com/profes...-respiratory-syndromes-covid-19-mers-and-sars
It looks very much like SARS-CoV-2 has mutated to a strain more transmissible, but no more/less deadly (per infection, but infecting more is still worse if more contagious). No proof yet of any weakening, especially with worldwide deaths increasing since the decline to a local minimum in late May, after the US/Europe saw major decreases in deaths.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rventions-and-more.198855/page-9#post-4624725
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
He's wrong on that (just posted on it) and almost everything else, historically...
I know there are numerous factors as to why the recent death rate in the US is down, including the simple fact that the cases are still active.
But is it possible that the virus has mutated weaker in the US, or even part of the US, while also having a non mutated strain still going in South America?
But is it possible that the virus has mutated weaker in the US, or even part of the US, while also having a non mutated strain still going in South America?
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