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GAME 10 Seton Hall: The Needle and the Very Fine Line

As far as Mulcahy goes, I love the kid, but I was at the game last night and couldn’t believe how many times he tried to force an inside pass that was either picked off or off Cliff’s hands (Cliff’s hands were terrible tonight). Also on several pseudo fast breaks he missed the open man in the corner (Hyatt once, Spencer twice) and threw the ball to a covered man. PM wasn’t seeing the floor clearly last night.

Last night was the blueprint on how to negate Cliff. 3 guys collapse on him and PM along with others still kept trying to force a pass to him. The coaches never made an adjustment or even appeared to tell PM to stop forcing it.

I watched Spencer shooting in pregame. He even stayed out there shooting when the rest of the team went back to the lockerroom. He must have shot 50 or 60 three point shots and maybe, maybe missed 2 or 3. Game starts and he throws up bricks.
 
Dude, shorten your posts.
Do you really think I’m reading this whole thesis?
As for yesterday, Simpson immediately turned it over twice the second he got in the game. What he did against Indiana no longer matters. It’s a new game

Mulcahy’s play has nothing to do with Simpson eventually being a playmaker. Simpson’s play against Indiana showed me that he wants the ball and can shoot it. That being said, he’s currently not that guy. I think has the potential to be a Geo type that others on this roster don’t have
NO! I love reading NJH posts. We disagree, but he gives his reasons and they are well thought out.
 
Do you think Pike is going to hand the reins over to Derek and limit Paul's minutes...I do not. As GRF has said, Pike has a blueprint and thats not changing and do you expect Pike to make a radical change. The guy on the bench is always the answer, I can recall posts from you last year about Jaden and Jalen. I do not necessarily disagree with you. Paul, Caleb and Cam are simply not playmakers on offense...and thats why again I am going to hit Pike for his recruiting, too much of a pass is given because RU made the tourney led by Ron, Myles and Geo. Well those 3 are not here and Pike didnt replace them

It's not that radical of anything, it's strictly a numbers game.

Simpson has played in 10 games and has gotten over 20 minutes in 7 of those 10 games.

In those 7 games, he has averaged just over 10PPG.

Minutes HAVE to equate to points on the scoreboard.

I have now 2 players who I can etch or write in ink, that if they play 27 to 28 minutes, are going to score double figures. That's Hyatt and Simpson (Simpson in a much smaller sample size).

This is not about replacing RHJ or Geo. You have to replace or replicate the number of shot attempts that those 2 players took.

The only 2 players that have the capability of taking and making those shots on the roster are Hyatt taking RHJs shot attempts and Simpson taking Bakers shot attempts.

The remaining number of shot attempts that have been in place for Caleb, Paul, Cliff and Spencer are not going to be any different.

If you want to argue RHJ averaged 15 shot attempts a game and want to say Hyatt should be around 12 to 13 and the other 2 should land with Caleb, that's fine.

If you want to say the 12 shot attempts per game that Baker took, should be 10 for Simpson and another 2 or so for someone else, that's fine as well.

You are replacing the same shot attempts with different results with Cliff and Myles from 2 years ago, so that is a wash.

Spencer is taking the same number of shot attempts as Young or Mathis is taking. He is shooting 3 of 19 from 3 vs Temple, Miami, Indiana, Ohio State and SHU.....that's 16%.....if Mathis shot 3 of 19 from 3, you'd be asking him to be bolted to the bench, but he's supposed to automatically gobble up 34 minutes, while Simpson plays 8???

Please make the numbers work anyway you want with giving the available shot attempts to Mag and Mulcahy to replace RHJ and Baker and I'll guarantee you that RU finishes in the Bottom 4 of the B1G.
 
DOGGED RESOLUTION....greatest defensive performance ever at the RAC

that game was an intense NCAA type game...a real rock fight

Last night was two horrific offensive teams who played good defense and made alot of unforced errors. We praise the Iowa game with a similar score because Iowa was full of potent weapons, SHU not so much. It took an extraordinary type game to hold down Iowa.


 
Can you explain this so I can understand your thought process on this.....??

Was Simpson out of control in BOTH halves of the Indiana game..... Even some of his baskets were circus shots

Why is dribbling the ball 30 times in a possession and dribbling into the baseline slowly and with no plan, deemed OK by Mulcahy......?? Mulcahy has a plan, he is looking for others. I think there has to be more movement off the ball. Cliff was very passive last night.

One plays the game with quickness and needs experience. But another player is now in Year 4 of the program and continues to baffle fans by somehow playing slowly, but is deemed to be playing under control?? Experience can also come at practice

The game ultimately will slow down for Simpson, but right now, I am shocked on the free passes or reluctance to try and get more scoring or easy baskets with Simpson, but we are OK with what we just watched last night. The game will slow down for Simpson. We had turnovers from guys trying to make plays. Simpson has had turnovers from panic. He sees the blitz and just throws the ball up in the air. This is a deal killer for minutes.

Just because a player plays at a slower pace, doesn't mean they're less prone to turning the ball over. I would like to think last night clearly showed that. We have a large sample and the amount of turnovers isn't normally that high

I would also add the absurd turnover by Spencer with the ball, up 1 at Ohio State with under a minute to go. no argument

If you just run any isolation and dribble the ball at the top of the key and set a screen and let Spencer chuck up a 3, that's a better option than a crazy low percentage bounce pass to Caleb, in traffic. Spencer's play was at a slower pace, but a turnover is a turnover. We need Spencer moving without the ball and not with the ball. If he has shot reluctance I'd rather see Simpson or Hyatt
 
It's not that radical of anything, it's strictly a numbers game.

Simpson has played in 10 games and has gotten over 20 minutes in 7 of those 10 games.

In those 7 games, he has averaged just over 10PPG.

Minutes HAVE to equate to points on the scoreboard.

I have now 2 players who I can etch or write in ink, that if they play 27 to 28 minutes, are going to score double figures. That's Hyatt and Simpson (Simpson in a much smaller sample size).

This is not about replacing RHJ or Geo. You have to replace or replicate the number of shot attempts that those 2 players took.

The only 2 players that have the capability of taking and making those shots on the roster are Hyatt taking RHJs shot attempts and Simpson taking Bakers shot attempts.

The remaining number of shot attempts that have been in place for Caleb, Paul, Cliff and Spencer are not going to be any different.

If you want to argue RHJ averaged 15 shot attempts a game and want to say Hyatt should be around 12 to 13 and the other 2 should land with Caleb, that's fine.

If you want to say the 12 shot attempts per game that Baker took, should be 10 for Simpson and another 2 or so for someone else, that's fine as well.

You are replacing the same shot attempts with different results with Cliff and Myles from 2 years ago, so that is a wash.

Spencer is taking the same number of shot attempts as Young or Mathis is taking. He is shooting 3 of 19 from 3 vs Temple, Miami, Indiana, Ohio State and SHU.....that's 16%.....if Mathis shot 3 of 19 from 3, you'd be asking him to be bolted to the bench, but he's supposed to automatically gobble up 34 minutes, while Simpson plays 8???

Please make the numbers worm anyway you want with giving the available shot attempts to Mag and Mulcahy to replace RHJ and Baker and I'll guarantee you that RU finishes in the Bottom 4 of the B1G.


we dont know whats going on in practice too...Dereks numbers are skewed because Paul and Caleb were out. Derek didnt get much time vs OSU because the other guys performed up to and beyond their ability including Spencer and during his limited minutes vs OSU he wasnt good...Derek was bad in his time in this game...turnovers, bad defense and bad shots. Thats why Pike rolled the dice with what he had. You can blow up Hyatt all you want but he has two point blank chances to win a game or send a game into overtime and failed both times. He is what he is on this team and more time just means more turnovers IMO, we have a pretty good data on that.

Mag meanwhile is becoming the heart of the defense and can give RU some scores. Those two plays Paul to Mag were beautiful

if you go down the route of Hyatt and Simpson taking all these shots, I guarantee you are punting any post season hopes. I think eventually Pike gets to that point but hes not going to do it now.

Wake is not that good. They may have quick guards and score but their defense isnt going to be half of what we just saw. Its going to be a similar type game to Ohio State and Miami but the difference is Wake isnt as good as those teams and its at the RAC. I expect Pike to continue to stress defense first and RU will get better shot simply because its not a seton hall defense, i do not expect many changes. If Derek is not making mistakes early, he will get good minutes vs Wake
 
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Sort our team by effective FG%.

Raw scoring isn't what we should be solving for (maybe last night was the exception!)
 
The other basketball 101 "No-No", is when your guard drives or tries to make a play at the basket or turns it over near the baseline, is your defense has no floor balance.

Floor balance means your guards "should" be shooting perimeter 3s from the arc and if they miss, they're immediately in place to stop and leak outs for a layup. SHU got 2 cheap layups in transition after turnovers and because there's no balance to get back on defense......yes, the players are supposed to rotate back into position, but Mulcahy is improvising where no one has a clue on what he's going to do with the ball.

SHU wasn't scoring unless they got on the offensive glass or scored after a turnover.
 
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if you go down the route of Hyatt and Simpson taking all these shots, I guarantee you are punting any post season hopes. I think eventually Pike gets to that point but hes not going to do it now.

Speaking of punting. I got a 30 seconds synopsis of the Rutgers football season during a Rutgers basketball game. Our best player is a punter breaking punting yards records.

I cut bait 4-5 years ago for football, I am guessing our offense wasnt great.
 
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The other basketball 101 "No-No", is when your guard drives or tries to make a play at the basket or turns it over near the baseline, is your defense has no floor balance.

Floor balance means your guards "should" be shooting perimeter 3s from the arc and if they miss, they're immediately in place to stop and leak outs for a layup. SHU got 2 cheap layups in transition after turnovers and because there's no balance to get back on defense......yes, the players are supposed to rotate back into position, but Mulcahy is improvising where no one has a clue on what he's going to do with the ball.

SHU wasn't scoring unless they got on the offensive glass or scored after a turnover.
Caleb did the 101 basketball NO NO leaving his feet without a plan.

To your point, I think this will be rectified and you won't see it as much. Somehow my box score said he had 7 assists and 3 turnovers. I believe the assist at least, not sure how he only had 3 turnovers.
 
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The game was horrible to watch. No flow at all. We play excellent defense and Seton Hall's D took us out of our game. So many of our turnovers were so sloppy and careless. I think there was a stretch where we threw 4 passes away in 5 possessions.

I think we will be fine, but need for Caleb and Paul to start directing the team in the right direction. What is disturbing is that Cliff stayed out of foul trouble all of last year(after being in foul trouble his freshman year almost every game) and has reverted to a few stupid and needless fouls early this year. He must play smarter.

Lastly, when you watch Cam shoot in practice, he shoots 90%, even on his 3 pointers. He is too good of a shooter to not have his shot start falling, even with guys in his face. Many of his misses have had space for him to shoot. That should start to change. He is too good of a shooter. I don't buy that moving up in competition will stop him from making shots. He is too good of a shooter. Now he must start to turn it around.

Best of Luck,
Groz
 
NO! I love reading NJH posts. We disagree, but he gives his reasons and they are well thought out.
All I said earlier in the post was how I think Simpson will eventually be the guy, but just not now.
And in response I got this thesis that was totally off on a tangent. Sometimes a long and informative post is great. This was not one of those times
 
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we dont know whats going on in practice too...Dereks numbers are skewed because Paul and Caleb were out. Derek didnt get much time vs OSU because the other guys performed up to and beyond their ability including Spencer and during his limited minutes vs OSU he wasnt good...Derek was bad in his time in this game...turnovers, bad defense and bad shots. Thats why Pike rolled the dice with what he had. You can blow up Hyatt all you want but he has two point blank chances to win a game or send a game into overtime and failed both times. He is what he is on this team and more time just means more turnovers IMO, we have a pretty good data on that.

Mag meanwhile is becoming the heart of the defense and can give RU some scores. Those two plays Paul to Mag were beautiful

if you go down the route of Hyatt and Simpson taking all these shots, I guarantee you are punting any post season hopes. I think eventually Pike gets to that point but hes not going to do it now.

Wake is not that good. They may have quick guards and score but their defense isnt going to be half of what we just saw. Its going to be a similar type game to Ohio State and Miami but the difference is Wake isnt as good as those teams and its at the RAC. I expect Pike to continue to stress defense first and RU will get better shot simply because its not a seton hall defense, i do not expect many changes. If Derek is not making mistakes early, he will get good minutes vs Wake

I am not to going to argue with you, the numbers support what I am saying. Look at the numbers dude.....Mag and Mulcahy are playing a LOT of minutes. Are they scoring?? Not enough.

If I write down number of minutes and PPG next to 5 players based on 20 to 24MPG, you have your answer.

Why don't you explain how to fix this...?

Mag MPG.....29.5 in last 4.....6.5PPG

Spencer MPG 29 in last 4 games.......5.25 PPG

Hyatt MPG....29.4 in 5 relevant games.....11.4 PPG

Simpson MPG 22..... 7.7 PPG

Mulcahy MPG 28.....(excluding UMass Lowell where he played 9 minutes)......only averages 6 shots per game.....that number has to be double figures in shot attempts and that has to happen off the ball)......he is at 7PPG for 28 MPG.

You can crunch the numbers anyway you look at the games, there is ZERO path to success with these numbers. It is a large enough sample size that jumps off the page.
 
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RU also turned it over alot in games vs Temple and Ohio State. Its a major issue and now two guys who just came back are the major culprits...9 combined. You cant turn it over that many times and expect to win while you are shooting 30 some percent.

Officiating had zero to do with this loss. Stop dwelling on what happened at Ohio State. If anyone with the program is still dwelling on it, its a major problem
Don’t think I’m dwelling on it at all. I think turnovers rather than poor shooting was the culprit. Why so many turnovers?? Many were unforced and/or trying to be cute. We know we aren’t a great shooting team. I think poor officiating has cost us two games now. I don’t think we recovered from the OSU fiasco. Pike on post game admitted we weren’t mentally ready. I think that was all due to OSU. Should we have overcome it yes but it was gut wrenching and easier said then done.

And I don’t know but I think the opposition stepping out of bounds in the last 7 seconds of both games and the refs missing both times is a bit difficult to accept. Certainly at the very least it’s the subject of legitimate commentary.

The commentary that we didn’t deserve the win because we played so poorly on offense drives me nuts. How about the opposite, we did deserve the win because our defense was excellent. Defenses were virtually identical. We held Seton Hall to 34 percent shooting. 45 points most times gets you win that game. Just maybe RU deserved one last possession in a one possession tight defensive game. That’s not dwelling. That’s a legitimate gripe.

Seton Hall shot 7 more foul shots then us in an equally physical game on the road. Nobody is addressing that. We shot 10 for 11. 7 more foul shots do we make at least 4? That’s the ball game. Officiating matters.

Twice in three years OSU and poor officiating has lead to a mid season downfall if not a crisis. Who can forget the bogus foul calls against Myles that sent him and RU into a funk for a month. Officiating matters. OSU sent us into a funk yesterday. It just did. The games aren’t vacuums. Again fair commentary and not merely dwelling.

To paraphrase a fine basketball commentator, basketball is a fine line and you have to thread the needle. Part of those lines and threading is the officiating. I want Pike to start getting T’s. Maybe refs will stop taking us for granted or at the very least focus and get the obvious non judgment calls right.
 
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Hawk....you are giving numbers but the bottom line is Pikiell is all about defense so I expect no change. He is going to trust in Mulcahy who by the way is just two games back and Mag who is the heat of the defense now, if you want to get Mag some more shots, thats the way to go.

fixes happen in recruiting, what we are seeing play out is exactly what many of us feared. We are what we are, a very limited offensive team without deep talent and little options. Pike will ride with defense because thats whats going to keep us in games. You called my recap bad but its exactly the overarching theme of the program. Pike is about threading the needle. He has had success with it before and thats what he will continue to go with. A game like yesterday is almost his favorite type of game....if RU hit a few more buckets and won 51-45, he would be calling it a game of beauty. RU will not be facing teams playing defense like SHU..not one in the Big 10
 
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I am not to going to argue with you, the numbers support what I am saying. Look at the numbers dude.....Mag and Mulcahy are playing a LOT of minutes. Are they scoring?? Not enough.

If I write down number of minutes and PPG next to 5 players based on 20 to 24MPG, you have your answer.

Why don't you explain how to fix this...?

Mag MPG.....29.5 in last 4.....6.5PPG

Spencer MPG 29 in last 4 games.......5.25 PPG

Hyatt MPG....29.4 in 5 relevant games.....11.4 PPG

Simpson MPG 22..... 7.7 PPG

Mulcahy MPG 28.....(excluding UMass Lowell where he played 9 minutes)......only averages 6 shots per game.....that number has to be double figures in shot attempts and that has to happen off the ball)......he is at 7PPG for 28 MPG.

You can crunch the numbers anyway you look at the games, there is ZERO path to success with these numbers. It is a large enough sample size that jumps off the page.
I mostly agree with you. But if PM can get you 7-9 assists per game with only 1 or 2 turnovers, he can account for 32 PPG. The problem has been his TO's. As a point guard (or any bball player actually), he shouldn't dribble into the corner and pick up his dribble. That's a bball no-no taught at the grammar school level and yet he did that multiple times last night.
 
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has anyone mentioned the Paul Mulcahy pass to himself off the backboard😡
That one actually didn’t result in a TO if I recall correctly.

Not really a fan of that but I can tolerate it because it seemed more like a creative way out of a tight spot than an attempt at showboating or something
 
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Can you explain this so I can understand your thought process on this.....??

Was Simpson out of control in BOTH halves of the Indiana game.....

Why is dribbling the ball 30 times in a possession and dribbling into the baseline slowly and with no plan, deemed OK by Mulcahy......??

One plays the game with quickness and needs experience. But another player is now in Year 4 of the program and continues to baffle fans by somehow playing slowly, but is deemed to be playing under control??

The game ultimately will slow down for Simpson, but right now, I am shocked on the free passes or reluctance to try and get more scoring or easy baskets with Simpson, but we are OK with what we just watched last night.

Just because a player plays at a slower pace, doesn't mean they're less prone to turning the ball over. I would like to think last night clearly showed that.

I would also add the absurd turnover by Spencer with the ball, up 1 at Ohio State with under a minute to go.

If you just run any isolation and dribble the ball at the top of the key and set a screen and let Spencer chuck up a 3, that's a better option than a crazy low percentage bounce pass to Caleb, in traffic. Spencer's play was at a slower pace, but a turnover is a turnover.
Paul had 7 assists and 3 turnovers yesterday, not sure he’s the right target here?
 
even with only 3 tos, Paul really wasnt doing a good job at running the team. His turnovers were particular awful ones and I think people are upset with his constant dribble into nowheres land. To me I was incensed RU ran 20 seconds off the clock dribbling in two of its last 3 possessions.
 
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According to Torvik, Rutgers is 6th defensively out of 363 at 40.9%, but offensively our EFG% is 47.0% for 282nd. That is where you start the fix.
which is why I am not looking at Hyatt and Spencer for more scoring when they are both below 47%.

One of my preseason questions is what will be the effective FG% of the incremental scoring Cliff will give us over last year.

The answer.....23.2%

Last year (per game) 5.045-8.063 62.6%
this year (per game) 5.769-11.3 51.3%

incremental change .752-3.237 or 23.2%

I realize not all Cliff's fault. No Ron and Geo hurts spacing.

The point is any extra scoring is not helping our offense efficiency.
 
That one actually didn’t result in a TO if I recall correctly.

Not really a fan of that but I can tolerate it because it seemed more like a creative way out of a tight spot than an attempt at showboating or something
Weirdly that was one of his better plays. Thought he had more turnovers too. Passing was hardly crisp. Generous stat? Not going to watch that fiasco again. As BAC notes dribbling to the baseline to run the offense was mind boggling. His best move all night was from the top of the key posting up and scoring on a pretty layup. Why wasn’t there more?
 
The problem last night is we didn’t shoot enough and guys got so tight that gave up makeable looks at 10-15 feet to continue dribbling endlessly and trying to pass through 6 sets of arms causing turnover after turnover. 19 turnovers is blasphemy. Worse if they are really not caused by the defense but your own sloppiness. How in the world did we attempt 43 shots in 40 minutes? Almost impossible but it happened last night. Guys cannot and I repeat cannot be afraid to shoot.

Guys killing Caleb last night for trying to hit back to back threes missed the whole point. If he makes it we go up 7 and game was likely over and the previous 35 minutes of crap we watched is a talking point after a win. A miss means we are still up 4 and now we play our stellar defense. There is no reward without taking some risks. No one on the floor wanted to shoot which is why not having Hyatt in there for 9 minutes or so and not bringing Derek back in or Woolfolk back in and playing Paul 37 minutes , Caleb 34 minutes and Cam 33 minutes was a huge mistake. As much as I love Pike , it might have been his worst coached game at Rutgers without 1 damn adjustment all game and just hoping his seniors or upperclassmen with 90- 120 games experience each were going to figure it out and allowing them to continue to dribble endlessly into baselines get stopped and have no plan except throw it to the other team. They needed to get shots up on the glass and maybe get a rebound for a kick out . Anything but what was allowed to occur. Damn brutal coming off decent to good Miami , excellent Indiana and good to great Ohio State for 25 minutes.
 
It was not that Caleb took the three that bothered me, it was how far out it was that bothered me. He could have moved in another foot or two and still a three. It even looked like his form changed. I think we only had one person under in a semi break too. I think SHU came down in seconds and hit a three, crucial 6 point swing not unlike the Houston game. Killed RU crowd from going crazy and significant momentum shift for the Hall.
 
which is why I am not looking at Hyatt and Spencer for more scoring when they are both below 47%.

One of my preseason questions is what will be the effective FG% of the incremental scoring Cliff will give us over last year.

The answer.....23.2%

Last year (per game) 5.045-8.063 62.6%
this year (per game) 5.769-11.3 51.3%

incremental change .752-3.237 or 23.2%

I realize not all Cliff's fault. No Ron and Geo hurts spacing.

The point is any extra scoring is not helping our offense efficiency.
Cam Spencer ‘s efficiency has to go up and up substantially. If you weren’t at the game yesterday one thing I observed as we arrived like 45 minutes early , was Spencer was shooting threes like Steph Curry. Even after the team went back to locker room he shot three after three from around the arc and must have shot 60-90 shots and hit about 70 % of them. He missed 5 yesterday and 1 or maybe 2 were kinda in and out. He was short all game against Miami that cost us , looked crisp against Ohio State and then yesterday laid an egg. If you saw him pregame you would have thought that he would hit 4-5 or all 5 attempts he took on the game. It hasn’t happened. One suggestion is maybe Pike plays him less minutes so his legs are fresh because if he can get it going it will lead to many more wins and our efficiency numbers for him and the rest of the team will go way up.
 
Cam Spencer ‘s efficiency has to go up and up substantially. If you weren’t at the game yesterday one thing I observed as we arrived like 45 minutes early , was Spencer was shooting threes like Steph Curry. Even after the team went back to locker room he shot three after three from around the arc and must have shot 60-90 shots and hit about 70 % of them. He missed 5 yesterday and 1 or maybe 2 were kinda in and out. He was short all game against Miami that cost us , looked crisp against Ohio State and then yesterday laid an egg. If you saw him pregame you would have thought that he would hit 4-5 or all 5 attempts he took on the game. It hasn’t happened. One suggestion is maybe Pike plays him less minutes so his legs are fresh because if he can get it going it will lead to many more wins and our efficiency numbers for him and the rest of the team will go way up.
He does it every pre game.

I can tell you by experience how you shoot in practice is irrelevant. I could make 70% 3 pointers in an empty gym on a bad day. Cliff can make 70% 3 pointers in the empty gym.
 
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I went through the play by play and calculated it myself. It adds up to the correct number (-2 * 5 = -10) so I'm fairly confident I did it correctly.

McConnell -2
Mag -5
Mulcahy +3
Omoruyi -2
Spencer 0
Hyatt +2
Woolfolk +2
Reiber -2
Simpson -6
Found it. Have to click on Home stats.


Or a PDF.

 
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I can tell you by experience how you shoot in practice is irrelevant. I could make 70% 3 pointers in an empty gym on a bad day. Cliff can make 70% 3 pointers in the empty gym.
Good shooters make 70% or more in shooting practice like that, really good shooters will have stretches of 85-90 out of 100. I don't think most people realize that.
The best shooting practice mixes in sprints, slides, bumps, dribbles, etc between shots, with guys contesting shots too.
 
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