GAME 12: Fordham Thoughts

[bac2therac]

Just a quick recap. These games are about surviving and advancing. First half was sort of funky but the team woke up in the last couple minutes of the first half and then rode that wave much of the 2nd half. Great to see them find some focus after sleepy beginning. It is clear that this team is one who needs to keep chopping and that needs to play hard and give full effort. You see what happens when they hit those lulls in the first half and even that 11-0 run by FU in the 2nd half.

What was the most important takeaway from tonight was balance. 6 guys in double figures....6...great team ball. Guys continuing to get more comfortable with their shot and playing together. RU cleaned up on the boards and continue to improve on their shooting percentage. Yes some like Eugene and Duke struggled a bit but even with that this is a learning experience for them. Loved Baker's game tonight. Every night he gains more and more confidence. Corey and Freeman were back to contributing the right way again. We have had some games were a few players were on and most were off but this was the closest we have come to everyone being on the same page. One of these nights we will get everyone hitting on all cylinders...we are getting closer.

The SHU game will be an extremely difficult matchup. I worry about getting shredded from three. In some ways this game will be more difficult than Michigan State. Hopefully Pike can continue to elevate this teams game when they play better opponents and find ways to keep them in the game. Still its a house money game, in our house, nothing to lose, SHU has all the pressure here. I think RU needs to approach this game as loose and maybe its the game when 6-7 players are all on their game at once

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I loved the sharing of the basketball and effort on the defensive end thru 33 minutes. I also loved the execution of the back door cuts.

Mildly worried that I counted 7 times Baker left his feet without a plan on the offensive end.

Nitpick....,Baker missed a layup on the left side using his right (wrong) hand.

Worth noting Eugene made a left handed layup.

Baker played 35 minutes....could have used this number in the 20s

 

[bac2therac]

yes but Mensah is terrible. Baker continues to play the most minutes. I saw 2 guys on Fordham played all 40 minutes. I think our 3 point defense is not good or at least tonight charmin soft...SHU will shred us with another effort like that

 

[mikefla]

I never doubted we would win but it was aggravating how many 3's FU made.
Would have loved to have seen more blocks
Fordham was fiesty.

Other than that,,,great game. Lots of balance.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Bac- good recap. I thought Thiam also continued to do some nice things again tonight. Great to see him driving to the basket for some high percentage shots.

 

[RU MAN]

BAC good recap. You're right regarding SHU. I know Pikiell and staff are very mindful of SHU's inside and outside game especially from beyond the three point line. We definitely need to stiffen up our perimeter defense or else would could get blown out of our own building. My gut however, with a packed house, we will make this game closer and the ending could be similar to the FSU game. And as you stated, "we're playing with house money" so you never know what might happen. We hung really well with the #2 team in the nation. I think we have a fighting chance.

 

[TDIrish27]

Absolutely

 

[kcg88]

yes but Mensah is terrible. Baker continues to play the most minutes. I saw 2 guys on Fordham played all 40 minutes. I think our 3 point defense is not good or at least tonight charmin soft...SHU will shred us with another effort like that

Have you seen the data out there that suggests that teams can't really do much to limit 3P%? Fordham shot 38% after coming in around 23%.

However, teams CAN limit how *often* other teams shoot the three ball. Players generally don't put up contested three-pointers unless they have to (late in the shot clock or if the score dictates it at the end of a game). In that sense, Rutgers is actually doing a decent job. They're 102nd in the nation, with 35.1% of opponent's shots coming from behind the arc. Last year we were 220th, so I guess we'll see how it shakes out in conference play.

Side note: Fred Hill's defenses were designed around taking away the 3-pointer. In the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons, we were top 25 in terms of fewest opponent shots taken from 3. However, the shooting percentages we allowed those years? 37.1% in 07-08, then 31.4% the next year. That's a wild swing.

Seton Hall, meanwhile, does NOT take many 3-point attempts: 30.4% of their attempts are from 3. Compare that to Fordham who chuck up a 3-pointer 44.3% of the time. (We're at 24.8%, for comparison, which makes sense considering how poorly we shoot it)

While SHU is definitely capable of shredding us from deep, like when they went 11-20 against Texas Tech or 9-17 against Indiana, they do more of their damage inside. Against Lousville they were 6-21, against VCU they were 5-14, against Vandy they were 4-14.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

12 games into the season and the next 12 will solidify a lot of things.

There were some teams (Fordham) that did a very good job scouting and preparing for RU.....You can tell because Thiam launched a three against pressure and air balled it....instead of forcing another 3 later in the game, he took advantage of the defense and made a nice running shot on the baseline.....even under 2 minutes to go, they pressed Thiam expecting to crowd him and he drove and made a layup.

Teams are expecting to crowd Baker, who instead of retreating, takes the driving lanes and took the pull up jumper provided to him.

Freeman and Eugene could have forced a couple of shots that I felt he should have taken and instead made a pass....some were deflected and wound up as a turnover.

Teams were not playing Eugene, Sa or Doucoure to shoot and Sa and Doucoure smartly took the foul line jumpers available to them....Sa knocked down a couple and Doucoure was perhaps a step or two outside of his comfort zone, but can knock down that shot....in time, if Sa and Doucoure make a couple of those and avoid a turnover, it should result in points.

RU will stay in every game, if they avoid turnovers and avoid team getting cheap baskets on layups in transition....so while I like teammates looking to make the extra pass, if the pass is in traffic and is an empty possession that leads to points, it will mask how well RU defends.

I know there is a perception that Seton Hall carries more weight than any other game, but the reality is, RU has 20 games after that one....If RU takes care of the ball and takes the shots that the defense gives them most nights, they will stay in games.

The next step for the remainder of the season is to find out what players take the shots available to them, as teams start to crowd Sanders and Baker.

What I am also curious more about SHU is they clearly know as a fanbase they have seniors, the more experienced roster, the better shooting team and how they appraoach the game. Sometimes you find out more about a team and how they play you, more than how RU plays them.

Will SHU extend their bench minutes and allow their freshman to play more or shorten the bench to make sure they minimize mistakes...????......RU will play their younger players, which will help the rest of the season and into next year and beyond, so this game is really just another benchmark....I'm more interested to see if SHU leans on their seniors....My sense is they will, because despite a guaranteed NCAA birth and chance to do significant damage on the NCAA's, this game is a must win for them. They can't drop a game to the upstart RU program that is clearly getting it's act together.....they believe this is a game about RU putting all their eggs in a basket, when in actuality, it's SHU that's invested much more than anyone on their side wants to acknowledge.

While the RAC will be rocking and rolling, there is nothing better than a lively RAC and how much SHU trusts its freshman in a hostile environment....I think if their freshmen play well, SHU will win comfortably..... if not, look out.....!!

 

[rufeelinit]

I thought candido sa’s play on the offensive end was most encouraging.

 

[knightfan7]

yes but Mensah is terrible. Baker continues to play the most minutes. I saw 2 guys on Fordham played all 40 minutes. I think our 3 point defense is not good or at least tonight charmin soft...SHU will shred us with another effort like that

I was thinking that watching last night's game. SHU is shooting 36% from 3 and 49% overall.
Carrington is the only 1 of their top 10 in minutes played shooting less than 45%. I'm thinking it's going to take a tremendous defensive effort to stay in this game.

 

[zebnatto]

No real disagreements.

Would like to see Issa learn to draw contact as d closes out on his 3s.

Like the offense more with ball in Geo's hands than Corey's.

Team had several to's trying to make interior passes--but it's a learning curve.

If not against SHU wanna see Duke make steps forward in next several games.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Interesting take looking at SHU from a Willard POV. I think he would be making a big mistake shortening the bench. He has a NCAA tournament team. This is a great opportunity to get non seniors playing in a hostile environment. It is not the end of the world if SHU loses to Rutgers. You often learn more by losing than winning.

 

[Degaz-RU]

I thought Fordham’s tight on-ball defense bothered us a lot last night. Our offense seemed out of synch much of the game.

The difference is that when we needed a bucket, we now have guys that can just make plays despite tight defense. Geo’s ability to hit that pull up jumper in the lane is a HUGE weapon in that regard.

I like how we were challenged a bit but fought through it.

Now on to a VERY difficult matchup against SHU, a team I hate but respect a lot. That’s a senior laden team that could just blow us out of our own building if they’re clicking. It’s up to our defense and rebounding to prevent them from getting on big runs.

 

[RUich]

Not a BB guy, but Fordham's offense seemed almost totally based on hitting 3's. As the announcers stated, they were only going to get one shot per possession and it was going to be from the arc. I was really surprised to see how they virtually bought into this with NO attempt at getting any rebounds in place of getting back on D.
Maybe our plan was to let them throw the bombs and see what happened. Against SHU, they will obviously have to have a different plan since they are a much better team than Fordham with more offensive options.
I agree with the playing loose plan. Nobody expects RU to win this game so let all the pressure be on the Pirates.

 

[jellyman]

A lot of good comments here, and Bac, as usual, has written a fine post.

My add-ons:

1) Fordham played a very strange, and difficult to identify defense, against RU, especially in the 1st half, and in the beginning of the 2nd half. They played what is called a "junk" defense ... as a basketball fan, I found it fascinating. Fordham played a Triangle and 2 defense, but with a twist. They played man to man covering RU's 2 guards, Sanders and Baker - but the man to man was very aggressive, face-guarding and overplaying off the ball on the 2 ball handling guards. The over-playing of the 2 guards in the man to man was ONE twist. The 2nd twist is that it was not really a "triangle" zone (i.e. 1 man at the foul line, and 2 on either post) - though sometimes the 3 players zoning did play that way. Often, the Fordham players in that 3-man zone played 2 players just below the foul line, fronting RU's front court players, with 1 player alternating between the 2 low post blocks. Also, Fordham aggressively tried to double team RU's post players when they went into the low post - primarily by bringing a defender from the opposite baseline, rather than from below the foul line.

So .. Sanders never quite figured out how to deal with this junk defense, which resulted in many of his SIX turnovers. And other than Freeman, RU's post players also struggled passing the ball, as traditional and predictable passing lanes were gummed up because of the junk defense - and its twists. Baker struggled in the 1st half of the 1st half, also - with his play-making. BUT ... Baker also made some terrific mental adjustments, and started to pick apart the junk defense, creating a fair amount of opportunities for his team-mates. He used dribble penetration to beat his man defending him in man, and drew the "zoning" defenders to him, and passed off to more open teammates. The Fordham coaching game prep was excellent, by the way, and very clever. It took a while for RU to really figure it out. Eventually, RU DID figure it out, and built a 22 point lead, before late in the game RU gave up back to back 4 point plays, coupled with 3-4 straight lazy turnovers.

Part of the issue for RU with Fordham's junk defense was that the defense actually exploited RU's offensive tendencies. RU tends to like the dribble hand off, high picks, and off the ball, after passing the ball, having RU's offensive players cut through the lane. The Triangle and 2 Fordham used - with the twists I referred to above - was perfect for defending those cuts, as RU players basically cut right into the teeth of the Fordham defenders, ruining RU's usual flow and spacing. RU had to change HOW they created spacing in order to break apart toe junk defense. Which did happen eventually. Plus RU ramped up its own defense, and got a number of points off its defense. In the end, Fordham ended up playing a more traditional man to man, I think, in the latter parts of the game.

2) Sanders: Sanders actually played rather well, except for the turnovers from never quite figuring out the junk defense used, and how to beat it. He did not force many shots, he rebounded well, he definitely looked to pass to teammates, and he played excellent defense (2 blocks and 3 steals).

3) Freeman was the only player in the 1st half who figured out STYLISTICALLY how to beat the junk defense, and was excelent in that half.

4) Sa moved to the correct open spaces against the junk defense - and hit his shots. he even had 2 dunks, getting off the floor without his usal hesitation. He even hit his 2 FT's!

5) Doucore and Omoruyi struggled offesnively against the junk defense. Doucore was, as Bac pointed out, a step or 2 farther out from the basket than he was probably comfortable on his jump shot, though most of his misses were not bad shots. Omoruyi struggled with the junk defense but was excellent rebounding.

6) Williams had a great 2nd half.

7) Thiam ... was excellent. Solid defense, again, 6 rebounds again ... and put the ball on the floor, driving to the basket. Thiam probably offered the best spacing against the junk defense of any RU player. And though he hit 1 3 (was 1-3), he also hit 4 OTHER baskets, 4 2-pointers, including 2 shots from the dribble drive he created for himself. Yes, he still has to show he can do that against better teams ... and he might be inconsistent this season with that ability against better teams. But when he develops the confidence to make those moves more consistently (IF he does), he has a very high offensive ceiling.

 

[higgins3]

Carrington- Baker- Even
Powell-Sanders Even
Rodriguez- Thiam/Omoyuri- mismatch.
Nzei-Freeman- Even
Delgado- Doucoure- Mismatch.

Sanders and Baker will either have carrington/powell. I like Sanders on Powell because Powell has capabilities that I think can be greater than Carrington. Carrington is having just a decent year.

I know our coach, Jay Young, likes to throw different players at the frontcourt mismatches. I expect to see Delgado see Doucoure and Sa.

Thiam will get the start on Rodriguez, but I think they might give Omoyuri a chance to guard Rodriguez. Just to show two kinds of defenses. Thiam really has to continue to use that length. Rodriguez is the best player on the floor, but not defensively.

This has potential to be a great game. I think Rutgers plays better defense, and has a real chance to win.

 

[batts]

12 games into the season and the next 12 will solidify a lot of things.


What I am also curious more about SHU is they clearly know as a fanbase they have seniors, the more experienced roster, the better shooting team and how they appraoach the game. Sometimes you find out more about a team and how they play you, more than how RU plays them.

Will SHU extend their bench minutes and allow their freshman to play more or shorten the bench to make sure they minimize mistakes...????......RU will play their younger players, which will help the rest of the season and into next year and beyond, so this game is really just another benchmark....I'm more interested to see if SHU leans on their seniors....My sense is they will, because despite a guaranteed NCAA birth and chance to do significant damage on the NCAA's, this game is a must win for them. They can't drop a game to the upstart RU program that is clearly getting it's act together.....they believe this is a game about RU putting all their eggs in a basket, when in actuality, it's SHU that's invested much more than anyone on their side wants to acknowledge.

While the RAC will be rocking and rolling, there is nothing better than a lively RAC and how much SHU trusts its freshman in a hostile environment....I think if their freshmen play well, SHU will win comfortably..... if not, look out.....!!

Hawk, Willard played his freshman against every team SHU played to date, including Indiana, Texas Tech, Louisville and VCU. Why wouldn't he do the same with Rutgers? I therefore don't think he'll play overly cautious against you guys because he's intimidated.. I doubt that he will mass substitute with the Freshman as he did against our weaker opponents, but he likes to spell the starters with the younger bench players, particularly with Delgado and Carrington to give them fresh legs at crunch time. With that said, I'm a little worried about Rutgers, however, because how it played against FSU and MSU.

 

[shu2x79]

Higgins, you lost me at Carrington/Baker being even.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Carrington- Baker- Even
Powell-Sanders Even
Rodriguez- Thiam/Omoyuri- mismatch.
Nzei-Freeman- Even
Delgado- Doucoure- Mismatch.

Sanders and Baker will either have carrington/powell. I like Sanders on Powell because Powell has capabilities that I think can be greater than Carrington. Carrington is having just a decent year.

I know our coach, Jay Young, likes to throw different players at the frontcourt mismatches. I expect to see Delgado see Doucoure and Sa.

Thiam will get the start on Rodriguez, but I think they might give Omoyuri a chance to guard Rodriguez. Just to show two kinds of defenses. Thiam really has to continue to use that length. Rodriguez is the best player on the floor, but not defensively.

This has potential to be a great game. I think Rutgers plays better defense, and has a real chance to win.

Sanogo/Nzei combo keeps SHU fresher vs Freeman.

KC is much better right now than Baker.

 

[bac2therac]

Have you seen the data out there that suggests that teams can't really do much to limit 3P%? Fordham shot 38% after coming in around 23%.

However, teams CAN limit how *often* other teams shoot the three ball. Players generally don't put up contested three-pointers unless they have to (late in the shot clock or if the score dictates it at the end of a game). In that sense, Rutgers is actually doing a decent job. They're 102nd in the nation, with 35.1% of opponent's shots coming from behind the arc. Last year we were 220th, so I guess we'll see how it shakes out in conference play.

Side note: Fred Hill's defenses were designed around taking away the 3-pointer. In the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons, we were top 25 in terms of fewest opponent shots taken from 3. However, the shooting percentages we allowed those years? 37.1% in 07-08, then 31.4% the next year. That's a wild swing.

Seton Hall, meanwhile, does NOT take many 3-point attempts: 30.4% of their attempts are from 3. Compare that to Fordham who chuck up a 3-pointer 44.3% of the time. (We're at 24.8%, for comparison, which makes sense considering how poorly we shoot it)

While SHU is definitely capable of shredding us from deep, like when they went 11-20 against Texas Tech or 9-17 against Indiana, they do more of their damage inside. Against Lousville they were 6-21, against VCU they were 5-14, against Vandy they were 4-14.

the problem is our inside game IMO isnt strong enough to defend SHU without falling. I can see us trying to clog the middle leaving the perimeter open. I felt Fordham got way too many open looks last night..for no reason either. They took 29 3s

 

[bowlgoal]

Fordham played a very chippy defense and it looked like we got banged up a lot. I don’t know if I would call it good defense but it made us look very sloppy. Souf was in for like 12 seconds and then never saw the court again. He just can’t do anything positive. Geo lost his guy several times driving to the hoop. But, we got the win and that’s the important thing. Maybe guys were just looking ahead to SHU??

Mamadou- I think he’s going to develop nicely but they left him uncovered at the top of the key several times last night where I thought he could drive to the hoop. He missed a few open shots but a few times he didn’t see that the lane was pretty open. He’s a good FT shooter so I’d like to see him take the ball strong to the hoop. Worse case is when they double for help, someone else is wide open.

 

[bac2therac]

Carrington- Baker- Even
Powell-Sanders Even
Rodriguez- Thiam/Omoyuri- mismatch.
Nzei-Freeman- Even
Delgado- Doucoure- Mismatch.

Sanders and Baker will either have carrington/powell. I like Sanders on Powell because Powell has capabilities that I think can be greater than Carrington. Carrington is having just a decent year.

I know our coach, Jay Young, likes to throw different players at the frontcourt mismatches. I expect to see Delgado see Doucoure and Sa.

Thiam will get the start on Rodriguez, but I think they might give Omoyuri a chance to guard Rodriguez. Just to show two kinds of defenses. Thiam really has to continue to use that length. Rodriguez is the best player on the floor, but not defensively.

This has potential to be a great game. I think Rutgers plays better defense, and has a real chance to win.

I will give you pushes on Sanders/Freeman but SHU has large advantages everywhere else including bench. We have the better coach and we are playing at home so we have those intangibles. On paper this game is a big mismatch

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Higgins, you lost me at Carrington/Baker being even.

I don't think there is any position where RU has a distinct advantage or even right now outside of Freeman vs Sanogo, who is their defensive stopper/rebounder....It will take a collective effort to keep the game out of the mid 70's in points, unless SHU gives up a ton of layups and open 3's....

If SHU plays a B to B+ game on the road, they will win and likely cover.

batts....I am just thinking of ways where RU stays in the game and that would be from freshman miscues in a road environment...I didn't watch the Louisville game since it was up against a ton of NFL that day, but I don't think there were a lot of minutes for the non starters...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not to be to simplistic....if we play hard and rebound it will come down to shooting. Our program has improved to the point where most of the games the margin of the game can be explained by making and missing quality shots. Not saying it is on equal ground.

Despite my nerdy kenpom data and my glass half empty analysis I don't expect a loss and a don't expect a win. I am expecting a game where we see who has the guts. who wins 50/50 balls, who has the guts to make FTs, who cashes in on wide open 3 looks. i don;t know enough about SHU, but i am starting to get a sense of the character of our team. In a war, with a packed RAC, and Mike Williams I am optimistic.

 

[RUChoppin]

Really curious to see the Thiam/Rodgriguez matchup. Can Thiam's defense and length limit his scoring? Can his height give him any advantages offensively? If Thiam can clamp down on Rodriguez and keep him off the FT line, the complexion of this game can change a lot.

Also interested to see the Omoruyi/Sanogo matchup. If Eugene can get him off his feet and get him in foul trouble, that can also change the complexion of the game a bit.

 

[higgins3]

Higgins, you lost me at Carrington/Baker being even.

Similar physical makeups, Carrington not shooting extremely well.

I lost you because you are a SHU fan, and we see things differently. Baker is the best player on the team. He plays the type of team bal now that SHU has been trying to force Carrington to play.

 

[kcg88]

Not to be to simplistic....if we play hard and rebound it will come down to shooting. Our program has improved to the point where most of the games the margin of the game can be explained by making and missing quality shots. Not saying it is on equal ground.

Despite my nerdy kenpom data and my glass half empty analysis I don't expect a loss and a don't expect a win. I am expecting a game where we see who has the guts. who wins 50/50 balls, who has the guts to make FTs, who cashes in on wide open 3 looks. i don;t know enough about SHU, but i am starting to get a sense of the character of our team. In a war, with a packed RAC, and Mike Williams I am optimistic.

Not to mention defensive rebounding. Both teams love to pound the offensive glass, so whichever team limits the second chances is going to have an edge. Unfortunately they have Delgado and we don't so we might have to make up for that with the other things you mentioned.

 

[batts]

Hawk, I'm not on attack mode regarding your post, I was just enjoying the debate. Fun times again for the RU - SHU rivalry. And yes, Willard shortened his bench somewhat at Louisville. Sandro, Gordon (soph) and Cale did play in both halves of the game though. Our other freshman, Walker, was injured.

 

[BKIn118]

Fordham's best defender last night was the 6 feet of empty space in the middle of the floor that their junk defense gives up. Our bigs had a hard time making decisions, often forcing poor shots.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Really curious to see the Thiam/Rodgriguez matchup. Can Thiam's defense and length limit his scoring? Can his height give him any advantages offensively? If Thiam can clamp down on Rodriguez and keep him off the FT line, the complexion of this game can change a lot.

Also interested to see the Omoruyi/Sanogo matchup. If Eugene can get him off his feet and get him in foul trouble, that can also change the complexion of the game a bit.

The game probably will come down to Thiam on Rodriguez.

 

[ruman]

The game probably will come down to Thiam on Rodriguez.

I hope not

 

[RUChoppin]

The game probably will come down to Thiam on Rodriguez.

Hopefully Thiam's length and man defense can frustrate Rodgriguez outside. 6-6 consistently having to shoot over 6-10 is tough. Rodriguez has hit 9 threes over his last 4 games (at a 45% rate) - if Thiam can take that away on the perimeter, that might help make him a bit more one dimensional and force him inside.

Have to think we'll see more Sa than Doorson at center, too, given the size/speed of Delgado.

 

[higgins3]

Hopefully Thiam's length and man defense can frustrate Rodgriguez outside. 6-6 consistently having to shoot over 6-10 is tough. Rodriguez has hit 9 threes over his last 4 games (at a 45% rate) - if Thiam can take that away on the perimeter, that might help make him a bit more one dimensional and force him inside.

Have to think we'll see more Sa than Doorson at center, too, given the size/speed of Delgado.

They will try Omoyuri on Rodriguez at times. If the game is up to anyone, let it be Thiam or Baker. They both have shown to give great effort.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The game probably will come down to Thiam on Rodriguez.

One of the trends seems to be Rodriguez getting chippy and chirpy during games, which I fully expect on Saturday....while Thiam provides the longer arms, I expect a full rotation of smaller and bigger players to push him around, make him work and get him agitated....I can see a rotation of longer arms like Candido Sa, the glue of Eugene, Thiam long arms and also mix up of Freeman as well.

I am fine with Rodriguez going for 20+, as long as they are 2 pointers and no freebies in transition....the key is avoiding turnovers and making SHU run their offense and score against our defense. As much as I didn't see the SHU Louisville game, I did see the 2nd half of the SHU Rhode Island game and Rhody annoyed them with boxing out and tough defense....that's the formula.

 

[shields]

For people who think we can't beat them, BC over Duke. And yes we need to shoot better.

 

[satnom]

SHU is a NCAA tourney team. That being said they are not better than MSU or FSU. Tough game at home but RU needs to play great defense, make shots, limit turnovers and RU wins.

Easier said than done.

GO RU