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Get used to this: Steve Pikiell Team’s, High Floor, Low Ceiling

People tend to conflate talent and athleticism. Unfortunately, race sometimes (but not always) plays a role in that situation.
 
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The rest of your post is great, especially since most of us dont have this experience, but the bolded is the perfect counter to the op's point that we will never have a high ceiling.

In college there seems to be 2 ways to have high ceilings. 1st is to get the most talented players, we haven't done that yet. The 2nd is to get a bunch of good players and let them develop. A core of good seniors tend to be very good teams. This is where we are heading. Next year the ceiling rises higher. Even without Geo I think it rises another notch in 2 years.
Yea, hard to say a team reached its peak when it's starting 4 sophomores. I guess they all get worse over the next 2 years
 
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While I think you are over-reacting a little bit and it is a bit jumping the gun to try and make this statement after our first taste of success in years I don't disagree with some of your points.

That being said, the more we win, the more we attract recruits. If we start getting better recruits and become a consistent top half of big ten team that our ceiling will rise.

It is a lot different when you have guys with NBA potential that come in and try to run an offense with their skill sets vs what we have now
 
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Yea, hard to say a team reached its peak when it's starting 4 sophomores. I guess they all get worse over the next 2 years
Well here's my question I guess. Has Ron Harper gotten better since March of 2019? Has Caleb McConnell gotten better since March of 2019? Has Geo Baker gotten better since March 2019? Has Montez gotten better since March 2019? Has Myles gotten better since March 2019? If so, what has gotten better about their games?
 
Well here's my question I guess. Has Ron Harper gotten better since March of 2019? Has Caleb McConnell gotten better since March of 2019? Has Geo Baker gotten better since March 2019? Has Montez gotten better since March 2019? Has Myles gotten better since March 2019? If so, what has gotten better about their games?
I'll say yes to every one of those. Stats say so. Teams record says so.

The answer is so obvious it's a pretty odd question.
 
We start four sophomores. We are one of the younger teams in the country. This roster has a bunch of growth left in it.

I don't post this often, but I played pretty high level D-1 college basketball. Have spent a TON of time around high level D-1 college HCs. I understand the dynamics of message boards and call in radio and twitter/social media, etc. But those who claim "we don't run an offense" truly have no idea what they are talking about.

I have posted examples of the sets we run and what they are designed to do. Do folks truly believe there are 100s of different offenses? Seriously? There are maybe a dozen different base sets that college HCs run. Whether you are Coach K or the guy who coaches the worst team in D3 you are going to run: 4 out/1in, 3out/2in, motion, pick and roll, etc. If you understand basketball you can see and understand what sets we run.

As I said, I get the nature of the message board dynamic. And I apologize, but I feel the need to call out truly awful takes.

And none of that is the reason the OP is waaayyyy off. What Coach P does better than 95% of the HCs in the country (imo) is develop talent. There is not more than 2 or 3 kids I have seen that have not gotten just about max potential out of their ability. That is why Coach P will win here. And possibly win big.
So let me get this straight? You think the sets we run on offense are okay?

So now I'll share my perspective with you. I hoop with Brandon Armstrong (former Pepperdine star and 1st round pick of the Nets). He's one of the guys whos gotten in my ear about Rutgers and the lack of offensive sets we run. He's been watching the games this year and thinks it's amazing how hard we play but says that our offensive gameplan or lack thereof is horrendous. We basically just pass the ball around the perimeter and try to throw it down to the post and have our big catch it too far from the bucket forcing a low % shot or we run motion, horns, or a simple pick and roll. These are things that you would see a 4th grade girls rec team be able to do. He's shown me sets that he thinks we should be running that would put Myles in a much better position when catching the ball in the post, that would free guys up for better shots, etc. I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be a basketball expert but I'm going to trust people like him, Jahvon Quinerly's high school coaches (who I'm also friendly with) and others when they tell me things.
 
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I'll say yes to every one of those. Stats say so. Teams record says so.

The answer is so obvious it's a pretty odd question.
might wanna peep those guys stats from big ten play last year and compare them with big ten play this year.
 
might wanna peep those guys stats from big ten play last year and compare them with big ten play this year.
Currently 8-6 in conference play.

To say the team hasn't improved is nonsense.

Edit:(but I would like to see stats for B1G specific games, link?)
 
All our lives we've been wanting coaches at RU that can do more with Less.. we finally have one and we're already running out of patience when we finally have a shot to dance?

A lot of you have this idea that we're going to go from worst to first- that just doesn't happen unless you have bags of cash that you are handing out. How about we meddle in this near top 25 arena for the next 4-5 years and allow our recruiting and talent level to take a step up to allow us to organically grow into a top 25 program year in year out. That is generally how many of the mainstays that you see have done it.
 
So let me get this straight? You think the sets we run on offense are okay?

So now I'll share my perspective with you. I hoop with Brandon Armstrong (former Pepperdine star and 1st round pick of the Nets). He's one of the guys whos gotten in my ear about Rutgers and the lack of offensive sets we run. He's been watching the games this year and thinks it's amazing how hard we play but says that our offensive gameplan or lack thereof is horrendous. We basically just pass the ball around the perimeter and try to throw it down to the post and have our big catch it too far from the bucket forcing a low % shot or we run motion, horns, or a simple pick and roll. These are things that you would see a 4th grade girls rec team be able to do. He's shown me sets that he thinks we should be running that would put Myles in a much better position when catching the ball in the post, that would free guys up for better shots, etc. I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be a basketball expert but I'm going to trust people like him, Jahvon Quinerly's high school coaches (who I'm also friendly with) and others when they tell me things.
I'm clueless about basketball strategy, what i can tell you is that I observe plenty of open look shots that our guys take and just plain miss. Shooting % ( especially in critical situations) is extremely poor and translates down to the FT line. If we hit just a handful of those open look shots its a different ball game in many of these cases. IE the open 3 to Harper at the end of the NW game - i know you were pissed about the play we ran but Harper was open and he missed.

Maybe we run what we run because that is what our guys can handle/most comfortable with?

This especially stood out in the michigan game were we miss high percentage lay ups/ shots near the rim, meanwhile they're converting low % chances.

Aside from all this - the biggest issue we have is getting our doors blown off early. How many of these games have we had to claw our way back from being down early? MD, OSU, NW
 
I'd be fine with another 8 years of pikiell. If the next 4 years is NIT then so be it. At least that'll be the new norm rather than nothing. He needs to land two Baker's in one class
 
So let me get this straight? You think the sets we run on offense are okay?

So now I'll share my perspective with you. I hoop with Brandon Armstrong (former Pepperdine star and 1st round pick of the Nets). He's one of the guys whos gotten in my ear about Rutgers and the lack of offensive sets we run. He's been watching the games this year and thinks it's amazing how hard we play but says that our offensive gameplan or lack thereof is horrendous. We basically just pass the ball around the perimeter and try to throw it down to the post and have our big catch it too far from the bucket forcing a low % shot or we run motion, horns, or a simple pick and roll. These are things that you would see a 4th grade girls rec team be able to do. He's shown me sets that he thinks we should be running that would put Myles in a much better position when catching the ball in the post, that would free guys up for better shots, etc. I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be a basketball expert but I'm going to trust people like him, Jahvon Quinerly's high school coaches (who I'm also friendly with) and others when they tell me things.
Not for nothing, but every team, at every level runs the pick and roll. So yeah, 4th grade girls rec teams will run it, but that does not make it a legit criticism.

NBA teams also run horns and motion offense.
 
Currently 8-6 in conference play.

To say the team hasn't improved is nonsense.

Edit:(but I would like to see stats for B1G specific games, link?)
Just get a kenpom subscription it's $20 for the year and has tremendous data. Of our 4 sophs, every player has gotten worse in conference play in overall offensive efficiency rating except montez who has gotten slightly better but his shooting % has gone done. That's very eye opening and concerning as historically, players make their biggest improvement between freshman and soph year, pike even said this himself,
 
Not for nothing, but every team, at every level runs the pick and roll. So yeah, 4th grade girls rec teams will run it, but that does not make it a legit criticism.

NBA teams also run horns and motion offense.
sure and that's fine but it can't be the only thing you run.
 
I'd be fine with another 8 years of pikiell. If the next 4 years is NIT then so be it. At least that'll be the new norm rather than nothing. He needs to land two Baker's in one class
see this is the line of thinking i'm concerned with. We have sucked for so long that just being mediocre rather than sucking feels good for a lot of people and I think people here are okay with settling at a ceiling of bubble/NIT team, which unless changes are made to pike's offensive staff I think is the ceiling.
 
Well that’s just not true. First, we do get those shots each game. Second we get many ahots that we pass up because guys lack confidence to shoot. Could we get more? Yes. That would require and lighting fast PG that we severely lack to beat guys off the dribble.
No we don’t, you’re confusing open looks and quite frankly pretty good shooting opportunities that I agree we pass up, with smoke a cigarette, take you time, completely uncontested and un-rushed 3s that we’ve given up for 4 straight games.
Harper, can barely get a decent look, and Geo, has to ball fake and step back to get his...once in a while he gets a nice timed jumper facing the basket, but it’s hardly a take you time look
 
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I'm clueless about basketball strategy, what i can tell you is that I observe plenty of open look shots that our guys take and just plain miss. Shooting % ( especially in critical situations) is extremely poor and translates down to the FT line. If we hit just a handful of those open look shots its a different ball game in many of these cases. IE the open 3 to Harper at the end of the NW game - i know you were pissed about the play we ran but Harper was open and he missed.

Maybe we run what we run because that is what our guys can handle/most comfortable with?

This especially stood out in the michigan game were we miss high percentage lay ups/ shots near the rim, meanwhile they're converting low % chances.

Aside from all this - the biggest issue we have is getting our doors blown off early. How many of these games have we had to claw our way back from being down early? MD, OSU, NW
I wasn't pissed about that play, thought it was fine. I was pissed we waited 14 seconds to start that play and wasted time dribbling in place at half court when we could've generated a 2 for 1.
 
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We very, very rarely get the wide open, set your feet, take your time 3s...like we give up a half dozen times per game.
We can go multiple games without one
My question is why would any opponent not wanting us to take these shots with our low percentage?
 
My question is why would any opponent not wanting us to take these shots with our low percentage?
because we don't really do anything on offense to even give them a chance to make that decision. We're not putting them in position to choose to collapse or give up an open 3. Myles catches the ball too far from the hoop so teams rarely have to double.
 
I wasn't pissed about that play, thought it was fine. I was pissed we waited 14 seconds to start that play and wasted time dribbling in place at half court when we could've generated a 2 for 1.
Little vague memory here, but didn't Young try to attack the perimeter but lost the handle which forced us to reset and thus the 2 for 1 was no longer an option?
 
So let me get this straight? You think the sets we run on offense are okay?

I think in composing this roster over three classes (Geo class, Harper/Mathis class and Mulcahy class) the one gap I see is we had not recruited a "pure PG" until Mulcahy. I think that ihas limited what Coach P (or any HC) can effectively run.

So, if your question or Mr. Armstrong's question is does the lack of PG (PG depth) limit the amount of sets we can effectively run then I would agree. But that is not this post or other posts from you I have seen.

You have stated two things. We don't run an offense and our ceiling is limited. I have pointed out the offensive sets we run. We get pretty good shots. As a team that shoots very poorly from three our sets are CLEARLY designed to get the ball inside the arc. We take the least amount of 3s in the conference. Do you believe that is design or by chance? We shoot close to 51% on non-3s. But college teams HAVE to shoot 3s. So we do. Badly.

As far as ceiling, I vehemently disagree. In Coach Ps first year I had the chance to speak with an HC who we played against. He could not believe how much Coach got out of Deshaun Freeman. Didn't think the kid had that level of play in him. CJ Gettys, Omoruyuri, Geo, Caleb, etc. etc. This coach has proven to be extraordinary at player development. For that reason I don't believe in the slightest in the "high floor/low ceiling" theory you espouse.
 
But he balls with a former NBA player yo........
These threads are eerily similar to my 2017 threads saying that Ash was a dead man walking and would never get it done at RU. I had pitch forks turned my way and was called an idiot up and down. Now I'm not saying the same about Pike. I really think that just making one change on his staff will work wonders for RU and revolutionize our game planning on offense into the 21st century. But if Pike is stubborn and doesn't make changes on offense, people are going to slowly start seeing the same thing I with others have been seeing.
 
Little vague memory here, but didn't Young try to attack the perimeter but lost the handle which forced us to reset and thus the 2 for 1 was no longer an option?
no haha. Geo literally dribbled at half court from 48 secs to 34 second. This is about the NW game Sunday.
 
I think in composing this roster over three classes (Geo class, Harper/Mathis class and Mulcahy class) the one gap I see is we had not recruited a "pure PG" until Mulcahy. I think that ihas limited what Coach P (or any HC) can effectively run.

So, if your question or Mr. Armstrong's question is does the lack of PG (PG depth) limit the amount of sets we can effectively run then I would agree. But that is not this post or other posts from you I have seen.

You have stated two things. We don't run an offense and our ceiling is limited. I have pointed out the offensive sets we run. We get pretty good shots. As a team that shoots very poorly from three our sets are CLEARLY designed to get the ball inside the arc. We take the least amount of 3s in the conference. Do you believe that is design or by chance? We shoot close to 51% on non-3s. But college teams HAVE to shoot 3s. So we do. Badly.

As far as ceiling, I vehemently disagree. In Coach Ps first year I had the chance to speak with an HC who we played against. He could not believe how much Coach got out of Deshaun Freeman. Didn't think the kid had that level of play in him. CJ Gettys, Omoruyuri, Geo, Caleb, etc. etc. This coach has proven to be extraordinary at player development. For that reason I don't believe in the slightest in the "high floor/low ceiling" theory you espouse.
so we'll agree to disagree, that is fine.
 
Just get a kenpom subscription it's $20 for the year and has tremendous data. Of our 4 sophs, every player has gotten worse in conference play in overall offensive efficiency rating except montez who has gotten slightly better but his shooting % has gone done. That's very eye opening and concerning as historically, players make their biggest improvement between freshman and soph year, pike even said this himself,

And interestingly, Rutgers' offensive efficiency in Big Ten play this year is better than it was last year per KenPom and this despite the Big Ten having many more good defenses than last season.


I get criticism of Rutgers' offense. It is not good. But what I don't get is pretending it is a schematic issue. There is very little offensive talent on the team, especially when it comes to having players that can shoot the ball. The way they survive on offense is being running in transition as often as possible and crashing the glass for second chance points. That's it. There is no scheme that is going to get them to make open shots, especially when teams know they can sag off the line and clog the lane.
 
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These threads are eerily similar to my 2017 threads saying that Ash was a dead man walking and would never get it done at RU. I had pitch forks turned my way and was called an idiot up and down. Now I'm not saying the same about Pike. I really think that just making one change on his staff will work wonders for RU and revolutionize our game planning on offense into the 21st century. But if Pike is stubborn and doesn't make changes on offense, people are going to slowly start seeing the same thing I with others have been seeing.
They are eerily similar except for the fact that Ash's record was abysmal from the jump and never improved. Where as under Pike we have seen dramatic improvement in a short amount of time.

So, actually very different.
 
i have coached at the high school level for 15 years and I'd like to say I know offense pretty well and KYK is right in some regard; we barely run any sets. Here are the sets and offense I have seen consistently.

1. Most of our offense is geared around ball side ball screen offense called european ball screen .
. We run this offense sometimes in high school and have for years. Its very basic and easy to teach and run. Colleges run this a lot too, but not solely this.
2. Horns; but we usually run the most basic of basic horns sets where we use one of the screens, or pass and flare off the other big. There are hundreds of horns sets; but I'd say we only do about 2 or 3 max. I'd like to see more in the playbook.
3. Occassionally but not often we will run a little cross screen, where the guard screens across on the low block and then will get a screen (screen the screener) and pop up top for 3. We rarely use this.
4. weaves or dribble handoffs at the top. This really isn't' an offense, but just used to get the defense moving and move the ball from side to side.


Thats it; and i'm not lying when I say we run much more than this on the high school level. Now, sometimes less is more, but you become predictable and easy to scout if you are only running a few basic things. I'm sure our guys can certainly handle a bigger playbook and we need to be much more diverse on offense.

If you watched Northwestern; they were running a screen the screener offense that a lot of high school teams use where you reverse the ball; set a diagnal bacscreen for the passer, then the screener gets a down screen up top for 3. They killed us on this the whole first half, and you still have to make shots but it makes the d have to guard multiple actions in one set. WE RARELY USE MUTLIPLE ACTIONS IN ONE SET! We may only use a ball screen action, but how about a backscreen or UCLA screen first, into a ball screen. Multiple actions right after each other is very difficult to guard.
 
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And interestingly, Rutgers' offensive efficiency in Big Ten play this year is better than it was last year per KenPom and this despite the Big Ten having many more good defenses than last season.


I get criticism of Rutgers' offense. It is not good. But what I don't get is pretending it is a schematic issue. There is very little offensive talent on the team, especially when it comes to having players that can shoot the ball. The way they survive on offense is being running in transition as often as possible and crashing the glass for second chance points. That's it. There is no scheme that is going to get them to make open shots, especially when teams know they can sag off the line and clog the lane.
See I disagree about offensive talent. I think there is offensive talent on the team, I just think it's being held back by our lack of sets that we run. Do we run motion with any intent? Are we running horns with any intent?

Look at how Iowa generates Luka Garza good post looks, aka put him in position to catch the ball with his guy buried on the block as opposed to 8-10 feet out like which happens with myles regularly. We have guys who can shoot 3's and nail catch and shoot 3's but we really don't generate many catch and shoot opportunities, our guys are often putting up contested 3's. If Caleb, Yeboah, Geo or Ron catch and are open, their %'s would go way up from 3, they can nail open 3's in catch and shoot situations, we just don't generate those type of looks. Put it this way, if RU and Iowa traded rosters, if our guys just traded jersey's, Fran would have our guys beating the piss out of his guys by an ugly ugly margin imo.
 
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Oh you are complaining about the game we won. Got it.
again because we won doesn't mean it was the right move. We gave NW the ball back with the shot clock off in a tied game.
 
the reason we go into long scoring droughts is because when you dont run an offense the only thing you can rely on is your guys winning one on one matchups and often times just playing one on one leads to lower % shots later in the shot clock. If teams prevent us from getting out and running this happens alot.

95% of offense is winning your one on one matchup's. Doesn't have to be on ball, but it's as simple as that.
 
We dont run an offense. The only offense we run is motion, horns and pick and roll. Stuff elementary school girls rec teams run
Those are the offenses most NBA teams run. The difference is that NBA players are much better shooters and offensive players than we see here.
 
So let me get this straight? You think the sets we run on offense are okay?

So now I'll share my perspective with you. I hoop with Brandon Armstrong (former Pepperdine star and 1st round pick of the Nets). He's one of the guys whos gotten in my ear about Rutgers and the lack of offensive sets we run. He's been watching the games this year and thinks it's amazing how hard we play but says that our offensive gameplan or lack thereof is horrendous. We basically just pass the ball around the perimeter and try to throw it down to the post and have our big catch it too far from the bucket forcing a low % shot or we run motion, horns, or a simple pick and roll. These are things that you would see a 4th grade girls rec team be able to do. He's shown me sets that he thinks we should be running that would put Myles in a much better position when catching the ball in the post, that would free guys up for better shots, etc. I'm not going to sit here and pretend to be a basketball expert but I'm going to trust people like him, Jahvon Quinerly's high school coaches (who I'm also friendly with) and others when they tell me things.
He knows a guy.
 
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i have coached at the high school level for 15 years and I'd like to say I know offense pretty well and KYK is right in some regard; we barely run any sets. Here are the sets and offense I have seen consistently.

1. Most of our offense is geared around ball side ball screen offense called european ball screen .
. We run this offense sometimes in high school and have for years. Its very basic and easy to teach and run. Colleges run this a lot too, but not solely this.
2. Horns; but we usually run the most basic of basic horns sets where we use one of the screens, or pass and flare off the other big. There are hundreds of horns sets; but I'd say we only do about 2 or 3 max. I'd like to see more in the playbook.
3. Occassionally but not often we will run a little cross screen, where the guard screens across on the low block and then will get a screen (screen the screener) and pop up top for 3. We rarely use this.
4. weaves or dribble handoffs at the top. This really isn't' an offense, but just used to get the defense moving and move the ball from side to side.


Thats it; and i'm not lying when I say we run much more than this on the high school level. Now, sometimes less is more, but you become predictable and easy to scout if you are only running a few basic things. I'm sure our guys can certainly handle a bigger playbook and we need to be much more diverse on offense.

If you watched Northwestern; they were running a screen the screener offense that a lot of high school teams use where you reverse the ball; set a diagnal bacscreen for the passer, then the screener gets a down screen up top for 3. They killed us on this the whole first half, and you still have to make shots but it makes the d have to guard multiple actions in one set. WE RARELY USE MUTLIPLE ACTIONS IN ONE SET! We may only use a ball screen action, but how about a backscreen or UCLA screen first, into a ball screen. Multiple actions right after each other is very difficult to guard.
agreed, i'd like to see us run more of the bolded, much more.
 
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again because we won doesn't mean it was the right move. We gave NW the ball back with the shot clock off in a tied game.
Aight, sure, I'd probably like getting the 2 for 1 there too. Granted there are draw backs to rushing that first shot, and it's not guaranteed you even get that 2nd possession, but still I agree.

However when you win, especially in a game where you come from way back, especially in the midst of the best season in 30 years, I'm just not going to get all worked up about it.
 
Just get a kenpom subscription it's $20 for the year and has tremendous data. Of our 4 sophs, every player has gotten worse in conference play in overall offensive efficiency rating except montez who has gotten slightly better but his shooting % has gone done. That's very eye opening and concerning as historically, players make their biggest improvement between freshman and soph year, pike even said this himself,

Your post makes zero sense.

Is the league better from last year to this year??

Do teams scout and adjust??

Why is Myles Powell such a poor 3 point shooter at SHU this year..is it lack of talent, coaching....??

There's no perspective involved...
Were teams taking RU lightly and unable to scout 4 freshman last year??

This isn't football QB play where you get more experience and reps and improve decision making or where to throw the ball. Frankly, basketball coaching is much more detailed to find open shots....it's not football.

And you can't watch our opponents and say "they get wide open shots,why don't we??"....as much as Brandon Armstrong played NBA ball, this is college...it's also why most NBA coaches struggle in college....they have no clue and they fail because of it.
 
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