You have lost me. The spread is set to balance the bets on the game, locking in a profit for the house. It is also the best proxy for how the market (betting public) expects the game to go. If RU is a 4.5 point fav, whether it be on the road or at home, the expectation of victory is identical. Not sure how you can argue otherwise. Again, bet at your own peril. FYI, I thought RU would beat Mich State by more than 4.5 points and I expect RU to beat Indiana by more than 4.5 points. But I'm biased. The betting public is not.So then why did you ask the original question???
You obviously agree that a Road -3 is different than a Home -3.
Being a Road -3 implies you are much better than the opponent compared to being a Home -3.
So yes, we should be more likely to win this week even though the spread is the same.