MSU and the point spread

[RUich]

After watching the Spartans almost lose yesterday, I took another look at their season so far. Although we know the beginning of anyone's season is usually mostly the cupcakes before the league games, this should mean some really high scoring blowouts. However, the #2 team nationally has not exactly blown anyone out. Their biggest spread (20pts) was against Central Michigan who is currently 2-3. Purdue's great effort still has them with a 1-4 record.
The rest of their wins ( 1-3 Western Michigan by 13 and 2-2 Air Force by 14) and the only team with a winning record Oregon at 3-2 by 3pts.
Since bookies have no hearts, they will set the point spread based on facts only. MSU's winning average over five games is 11pts. Since we are playing at our place, I think they may be under a two TD favorite. We really have just one bad loss with PSU.
If our coaching staff can emulate what Purdue was able to do yesterday, we may well have a chance here.

 

[Terry_2426]

Literally 0 shot MSU is under a 2 touchdown favorite on Saturday. Vegas' goal is to get bets close to 50/50 on both sides---no one is taking an RU +13.5 line

 

[Ru2bnj]

Not that I gamble on football, but I would expect MSU to be around a 17 point favorite against RU.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

So you consider Wazzou, at home, giving up 560 total yards, a GOOD loss?

Re: MSU, here's what has gone down so far:

WMU: up 20-7 after 1st and 27-10 at the half. Won 37-24.
Air Force: up 28-7 at half. Won 35-21
Purdue: up 21-0 at half won 24-

So it's one of 2 things: either the opposing coaches are adjusting very well, at the half, or MSU gets more than a tad complacent once up comfortably at the half. Watching the WMU and Purdue games, IMHO, it's more of the "complacent" side of things. They almost look as though they just want to get to the "meat" of their schedule.

BTW - if you're a gambling man Sparty is a GREAT 1st half cover!!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

The team needs to compete Saturday. Bottom line. Last week showed that these teams like OSU, MSU, Wisconsin and Nebraska aren't gods...just football players. They haven't been embarrassing anyone. Or beating anyone in Nebraska's case. Play like you belong on the field at the very least .

I expect to have something to cheer for Saturday night, win or lose. I can live with a a loss but not an embarrassment.

Can't really argue with any of this. Show some signs of life, unlike the PSU debacle, please!

 

[Abro1975]

The biggest problem Right Now is lack of leadership. No Head Coach on field during game, 2 captains Not on field during game, brand new QB who seems to lack confidence in throwing more than a 15 yard pass.
Need some MOJO !

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Line will be 12.5 at open

 

[bac2therac]

MSU -16.5

 

[Terry_2426]

Line opens up at MSU -17

 

[AreYouNUTS]

LOL @ OU -14 against Texas!!! LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!

 

[DJ Spanky]

Line opens up at MSU -17

Good, let MSU come in and think they can walk away with a game.

 

[RUfan121]

MSU can think about unicorns and rainbows all week and they'll still drop 50 on this defense.

 

[BoogieKnight]

It's about match-ups. Is MSU going to go 4-5 wide and throw it 60+ times like Wash State did or are they going to line up and try and run it at us? Maybe with their OL they will run it right over our face but I still feel we match up better vs their O than we did Wazzu. That said, our offense will be lucky to score. MSU -15.5

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Good, let MSU come in and think they can walk away with a game.

Yeah, because Lord knows we should t be 17 point dogs, lol! Com'on Spank! :cool2:

 

[Ru2bnj]

It's about match-ups. Is MSU going to go 4-5 wide and throw it 60+ times like Wash State did or are they going to line up and try and run it at us? Maybe with their OL they will run it right over our face but I still feel we match up better vs their O than we did Wazzu. That said, our offense will be lucky to score. MSU -15.5

MSU will play the way they usually do. They want to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage. Use play action passes and challenge down the field. The bottom line is that they are better at the LOS and have more players across the board. They are a much better team than PSU, even with some of the problems and injuries they have had.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yeah, because Lord knows we should t be 17 point dogs, lol! Com'on Spank! :cool2:

Dude, lighten up. I'm not disputing that the point spread shouldn't be this high considering our respective records. However, the higher the spread, the more they'll think this game is a cakewalk.

 

[Knightmoves]

I'm interested in knowing how many of our board posters like RU +17 vs Sparty next Saturday.

Based on results to date I don't like either side of this equation. While the line appears to be a little rich favoring MSU we really haven't shown that we can hang with a good team. I'd be a little squeamish betting RU +17 in this one, especially if we should get off to a slow start.

 

[REDRICH65]

Still, I expect us to be better than 45-3. How about 31-10? Or maybe24-21 us.!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

If MSU plays a full game, instead of a great 1st half and lousy 2nd half, they'll cover. If not - as has been the case a few times - then maybe not.

 

[Local Shill]

The board will rightfully be as ugly as you could possibly imagine if it's like last year's debacle.

 

[Rutgers25]

If MSU plays a full game, instead of a great 1st half and lousy 2nd half, they'll cover. If not - as has been the case a few times - then maybe not.

MSU giving 17 seems like a lock...our offense will score 10 at most.

 

[RUBigFrank]

chalk 17
the Knights cover

 

[toby83]

I'm betting msu

even if semi close 23-10 later in second half , I don't see how Laviano doesn't throw pics vs a good D that knows you are throwing. then short field , quick td and they cover.

if those two msu tackles come back will be ugly.