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OT: a good friend is STUCK IN CHINA

BigWill said:
Was the sickness common knowledge in China BEFORE the rest of the world knew of it ? How many of the approx. 11,000,000 population of Wuhon escaped outside the first Wuhon quarantee zone ? I read an estimated 5,000,000 ? Who many of those escaped the second quarantee zone of approx., 56,000,000 ? (which is approx. Calif, Oregon, Wash combined.)
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Really tough to know any of this in any detail. Early on (December) doctors in Wuhan noted a significant amount of "atypical pneumonia" cases that resembled SARS. They started talking about it on Chinese social media and were quickly shut down by local officials and forced to apologize for spreading misinformation. So the outbreak was allowed to grow locally. Not clear at what point knowledge reached other parts of China but there were lots of reports on social media (twitter mainly) about the severity of the outbreak before China ever acknowledged it publicly.

I'm not sure how much of it was people "escaping" from Wuhan because of the virus, versus the fact it was a time of year where many people in China travel. But a lot of people definitely left the Wuhan area before the quarantine was set in place. Interestingly, though, if you believe the numbers being reported, there has been relatively little disease outside of the Hubei area...so far at least.
 
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Iranian deputy health minister has the virus too now and he wasn't even wearing mask and neither was guy standing next to him during press conference he gave. That's been the place more than the others, even with reported larger cases, I've always thought it would really get out and it has to other middle eastern countries.

 
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rutgersguy1 said:
Iranian deputy health minister has the virus too now and he wasn't even wearing mask and neither was guy standing next to him during press conference he gave. That's been the place more than the others, even with reported larger cases, I've always thought it would really get out and it has to other middle eastern countries.
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and how does someone in Iran catch a disease from China?.................
 
RUfromSoCal? said:
and how does someone in Iran catch a disease from China?.................
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Really? People travel for pleasure and work and China is home to about a million expats from all over the world, including the Middle East. For a long time China had a never ending supply of internal migrants as hundreds of millions of impoverished people from the countryside moved to China's big cities and factories, but that well, while not dry, isn't as big as it was. Being interconnected, globally, is great in so many ways...except when there's a new infectious disease...
 
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Lots of Chinese "building projects" in Africa over the last few years. Hope Africa doesnt get hit.
 
cohwx said:
Nice response. A few points of clarification though regarding pediatric flu deaths. The current total of 105 is not the highest ever recorded at this point in the season, but it is the second highest. There were 265 child deaths at this point in the 2009-2010 season. Total for that year was 288. The last 2 years the total number of child deaths have been 188 and 144 so this year could easily top those if things keep going at the current rate.

As for death rates, I think we still have to be really careful about making assumptions from the "data" provided by China. I don't think anyone has a good handle on how many deaths or infections have actually occurred there, and since the infection often has a long course (2-4 weeks or more in severe cases), there is a significant lag between case identification and final outcome. If you use only "resolved" cases and accept the Chinese data, the death rate is 8.8% (2664 deaths / (2664 deaths + 27635 recovered). That doesn't account for "minor" cases but also doesn't account for the potentially thousands of deaths that have not been officially attributed to the disease. I'll feel a lot more confident if the rates of death and serious illness in the Italy and South Korea outbreaks are low. I've said elsewhere that Wuhan/Hubei might be the model for a worst-case scenario where the early outbreaks are ignored/denied and the medical system is completely overwhelmed. We'll see.

Regarding vaccines - I have seen several papers that describe complications associated with attempts at SARS vaccines. I assume these were in animal tests, but if I recall correctly, the vaccines were effective in preventing actual infection with the SARS virus. However, when animals were exposed to the virus they still developed some kind of serious inflammatory response in their lungs. Since SARS1 and SARS2 are very similar, there might be similar problems. On the other hand, technology has advance a lot since 2003 so perhaps new techniques will lead to safe/effective vaccine development on a quicker time scale.
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The Chinese CDC and WHO are saying the overall death rate is in the ~2% range and only counting "resolved" cases is not appropriate. I'm sure there's some variability in the mortality rate, as we've seen rates of 3-4% in Wuhan and 1% elsewhere in China, but there's no way it's almost 9%. I agree it will be very telling to see the mortality rates in SK and Italy, which generally have good public health care.

Of the 44,672 confirmed cases, the Chinese CDC said there were 1,023 deaths, a crude mortality rate of 2.3%, which is in line with other studies and projections. By comparison, SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6% during the 2003 outbreak, while MERS has a case fatality of 35%. Seasonal influenza, which is highly contagious and effects tens of millions of people, has a mortality rate of around 0.1%, according to the most recent estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control.
International experts have cautioned that early numbers may not tell the whole story. Case fatality rates may come down as officials discover milder cases who don't seek medical care.

"My sense and the sense of many of my colleagues, is that the ultimate case fatality rate ... is less than 2%," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN's Jim Sciutto on "New Day" Tuesday. "What is likely not getting counted is a large number of people who are either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, so the denominator of your equation is likely much much larger."

"So I would think at tops it's 2% and it likely will go down when all the counting gets done to 1% or less. That's still considerable if you look at the possibility that you're dealing with a global pandemic," he added.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-china-sars-mers-intl-hnk/index.html

One positive development is that the epidemic in China is finally looking like it has plateaued and starting to decline. Still too early to declare victory, but this is a good sign that aggressive public health measures (even if too late) can stem the tide of the infection, as per the excerpt below. However, in countries like Iran, that lack a strong public health culture and infrastructure, it's very possible that's where we'll eventually see the worst outcomes.

China appears to be getting the new coronavirus under control, but with infections spreading rapidly in South Korea, Iran and Italy, the world is not prepared for a major outbreak, World Health Organization officials said on Monday.

A W.H.O. mission to China has said that the daily tally of new cases there peaked and then plateaued between Jan. 23 and Feb. 2, and has steadily declined since.

“We’re encouraged by the continued decline in cases in China,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general.

On Monday, China recorded 508 more confirmed cases of coronavirus infection and another 71 deaths from the virus. The total number of confirmed infections across China is now 77,658 and officially 2,663 people in China have died from the coronavirus.

The rise in the number of deaths reported on Tuesday — an increase of under 3 percent — was a marked decrease from the new cases reported daily over the last few weeks, when new fatalities regularly reached into the hundreds.

The W.H.O. team credited lockdown measures China imposed in late January for averting a faster spread from Wuhan, the city at the center of the epidemic. China sealed off cities, shut down businesses and schools, and ordered people to avoid mass gatherings.

“China has taken one of the most ancient strategies for infectious disease control and rolled out probably the most ambitious and I would say agile and aggressive disease-contagion efforts in history,” said Bruce Aylward, a Canadian doctor and epidemiologist who led the W.H.O. mission to China.

But some experts question whether the epidemic is truly waning in China, which changed the way it counted cases earlier this month, then changed it back again. Some infected people have been unable or reluctant to receive medical care, and there is a shortage of viral testing kits, which may mean that cases go undetected.

The infection has been fatal in 2 to 4 percent of cases within Wuhan, but in less than 1 percent elsewhere, the W.H.O. said.

The organization has declared the epidemic a public health emergency, but Dr. Tedros said it has not reached the level of a pandemic — yet.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
 
Looks like some serious treatment, equipment and protections needed to keep the death percentage so low. What are the near death percentages?
 
RU848789 said:
The Chinese CDC and WHO are saying the overall death rate is in the ~2% range and only counting "resolved" cases is not appropriate. I'm sure there's some variability in the mortality rate, as we've seen rates of 3-4% in Wuhan and 1% elsewhere in China, but there's no way it's almost 9%. I agree it will be very telling to see the mortality rates in SK and Italy, which generally have good public health care.

Of the 44,672 confirmed cases, the Chinese CDC said there were 1,023 deaths, a crude mortality rate of 2.3%, which is in line with other studies and projections. By comparison, SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6% during the 2003 outbreak, while MERS has a case fatality of 35%. Seasonal influenza, which is highly contagious and effects tens of millions of people, has a mortality rate of around 0.1%, according to the most recent estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control.
International experts have cautioned that early numbers may not tell the whole story. Case fatality rates may come down as officials discover milder cases who don't seek medical care.
Click to expand...

There's lots of discussion and debate about how to estimate fatality rates early in an epidemic. None of them are "right"; it can only really be determined further on in time. For instance, how many of those 44000 cases are still in critical condition, ICU, etc? The current listing has over 9000 cases as serious/critical in China. If those aren't closed cases you don't know how they will end.

If you've been tracking the #'s you see that the number of new cases has been going down faster than the number of new deaths, so the fatality rate has been creeping up over time. That is to be expected given how long it takes cases to resolve.

Bottom line - in my opinion (and a lot of experts in the field from what I've seen) - we really don't have a good grasp on the fatality rate.

It will be interesting to see what happens when they start relaxing the lockdowns and quarantines which has to happen eventually. Will things flare up again...will the warmer weather help, who knows.
 
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Nice Tucker Carlson piece on the WHO and the bums that run the organization....
 
BigWill said:
Nice Tucker Carlson piece on the WHO and the bums that run the organization....
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Haven't seen Carlson add much relevant to the coronavirus situation yet (especially his ridiculous rant on "identity politics" and the media) - maybe you could share what he said that's relevant about the WHO...

Let's hope he has more to offer than the POTUS, who has been making an absolute fool of himself with his comments about the situation. Today he said the problem's "going to go away" and for a few weeks he's been touting the return of warmer weather implying it's the biggest weapon we have in our battle. I would rather see him showing actual leadership on preventing a potential pandemic than issuing platitudes.

Here's what he said today:

"I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said during a trip to India, expressing confidence that the epidemic will not seriously harm the global economy.

And here's what he said a couple of weeks ago about spring. While we all hope that this virus behaves like most other viruses and becomes far less of an issue in the Spring, as I was talking about yesterday, to say, with confidence, that that's going to happen, implying that that was what we're relying on, was simply ridiculous.

"Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now."
 
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RU848789 said:
Haven't seen Carlson add much relevant to the coronavirus situation yet (especially his ridiculous rant on "identity politics" and the media) - maybe you could share what he said that's relevant about the WHO...

Let's hope he has more to offer than the POTUS, who has been making an absolute fool of himself with his comments about the situation. Today he said the problem's "going to go away" and for a few weeks he's been touting the return of warmer weather implying it's the biggest weapon we have in our battle. I would rather see him showing actual leadership on preventing a potential pandemic than issuing platitudes.

Here's what he said today:

"I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said during a trip to India, expressing confidence that the epidemic will not seriously harm the global economy.

And here's what he said a couple of weeks ago about spring. While we all hope that this virus behaves like most other viruses and becomes far less of an issue in the Spring, as I was talking about yesterday, to say, with confidence, that that's going to happen, implying that that was what we're relying on, was simply ridiculous.

"Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now."
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Zero leadership.
 
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Leadership like asking Congress to approve $1.8 Billion in emergency funding to fight coronavirus, or leadership like issuing a racist executive order to close the borders and end flights from China/South Korea/Italy?
 
RU848789 said:
Haven't seen Carlson add much relevant to the coronavirus situation yet (especially his ridiculous rant on "identity politics" and the media) - maybe you could share what he said that's relevant about the WHO...

Let's hope he has more to offer than the POTUS, who has been making an absolute fool of himself with his comments about the situation. Today he said the problem's "going to go away" and for a few weeks he's been touting the return of warmer weather implying it's the biggest weapon we have in our battle. I would rather see him showing actual leadership on preventing a potential pandemic than issuing platitudes.

Here's what he said today:

"I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said during a trip to India, expressing confidence that the epidemic will not seriously harm the global economy.

And here's what he said a couple of weeks ago about spring. While we all hope that this virus behaves like most other viruses and becomes far less of an issue in the Spring, as I was talking about yesterday, to say, with confidence, that that's going to happen, implying that that was what we're relying on, was simply ridiculous.

"Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now."
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When you post something smart, it will be the first time

It's amazing how many idiots post here.
 
And as usual, another thread goes off the rails thanks to politics. Was informative to read up until last night. Thanks. Might as well move to the CE cesspool.
 
First case to show up in South America in Brazil, man came from Italy. It'll be interesting to see how much the virus spreads in these countries in the Southern Hemisphere. Not much heard about in Africa except for a couple cases in northern Africa. This case in Brazil is the first South America. In Australia there have been 23 cases but just about all if not all came from outside the country either China or the cruise ship. Don't know that they've had much person to person transmission and read that 15 cases have been treated and released.

I kind of think if these numbers in the southern hemisphere stay minimal maybe we can be hopeful that it does end up being seasonal like the flu. From what I read though it seems like it will stick around for at least years as another type of "seasonal flu."
 
RU848789 said:
Haven't seen Carlson add much relevant to the coronavirus situation yet (especially his ridiculous rant on "identity politics" and the media) - maybe you could share what he said that's relevant about the WHO...

Let's hope he has more to offer than the POTUS, who has been making an absolute fool of himself with his comments about the situation. Today he said the problem's "going to go away" and for a few weeks he's been touting the return of warmer weather implying it's the biggest weapon we have in our battle. I would rather see him showing actual leadership on preventing a potential pandemic than issuing platitudes.

Here's what he said today:

"I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said during a trip to India, expressing confidence that the epidemic will not seriously harm the global economy.

And here's what he said a couple of weeks ago about spring. While we all hope that this virus behaves like most other viruses and becomes far less of an issue in the Spring, as I was talking about yesterday, to say, with confidence, that that's going to happen, implying that that was what we're relying on, was simply ridiculous.

"Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now."
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You know damn well Trump could go into a lab today and find a cure for the virus and the usual suspects would claim he didn't cure it fast enough.
 
Excellent summary article on whether this new coronavirus will behave in a "seasonal" fashion, like influenza, excerpted below. SARS did peter out by early summer in China, but it's not clear if it was because of seasonal change or effective public health intervention practices and MERS started in September in Saudi Arabia where it's warm (but not humid usually), but it had a fairly low transmission rate, so it might not be a good model for CoV-2. Let's all hope this one is more like influenza, which generally becomes much less of a problem by April in the northern hemisphere.

Though the coronavirus and the flu are both respiratory infections, not enough is known about SARS-CoV-2 to predict if it will have the same seasonal patterns.

To better understand this outbreak, scientists are looking at comparable outbreaks like SARS and MERS. SARS, which started its spread in late 2002, shares almost 90 percent of its DNA with the current virus. The SARS outbreak started in November and lasted until July, which only hints at seasonality, says Weston, and containment may have resulted from early intervention. In other words, did it disappear with warmer weather, or did treatment and prevention efforts simply work?

MERS began in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, where temperatures are generally high. Unlike SARS, it was never fully contained, and new cases are occasionally reported. The novel coronavirus has also begun to circulate locally in the Middle East, namely in Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

“We don’t see too much evidence of seasonality in MERS,” says Weston. But whether SARS and MERS were truly seasonal or if this virus will imitate SARS is unclear. Weston says their lab is focused on developing treatments and vaccines for the virus, which he cautions won’t likely be available for a least a year, if not several.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...virus-covid-19-in-warmer-spring-temperatures/
 
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RobotHunter said:
You know damn well Trump could go into a lab today and find a cure for the virus and the usual suspects would claim he didn't cure it fast enough.
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Well, his leadership on this has been largely absent so far, after cutting many public health programs the past few years and his statements so far centering on spring being the "cure" for the virus and lashing out at people who are "panicking" the markets - if he is afraid of panicked markets, he should be doing everything in his power to prevent a serious spread of the virus here. He also should have been much tougher with the Chinese, initially, with regard to sharing information and we should have already ratcheted up spending on prevention and monitoring weeks ago, not now. But he has a press conference scheduled for this evening with the CDC by his side (who have been critical of his offt-the-cuff comments and rightly so), so let's see what he does. Maybe he'll step up and lead - would love to see it.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-wednesday-evening-news-conference-on-coronavirus
 
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You do realize that he has requested $ 2,100,000,000 in funds for fighting the possible transmission into the USA, from Congress.

As to "everything in his power", if the Communist Powers in China that can restrict movement of over 56,000,000 Chinese, which is the combined population of California, Oregon and Washington State and the virus spreads what would you prefer he do ?

Unlike FDR, he can't restrict and cancel an entire races rights of citizenship in specific areas, ship them into desert areas under armed guard and eventually behind barbed wire without due process. Thinking that World War 2 is probably a bigger event than this virus.
 
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BigWill said:
You do realize that he has requested $ 2,100,000,000 in funds for fighting the possible transmission into the USA, from Congress.

As to "everything in his power", if the Communist Powers in China that can restrict movement of over 56,000,000 Chinese, which is the combined population of California, Oregon and Washington State and the virus spreads what would you prefer he do ?

Unlike FDR, he can't restrict and cancel an entire races rights of citizenship in specific areas, ship them into desert areas under armed guard and eventually behind barbed wire without due process. Thinking that World War 2 is probably a bigger event than this virus.
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I'm no fan of Trump, but agree. He can't go into China, Rambo-style, and do anything.

The bottom line as far as I know is that we haven't had a new case in the United States in a few weeks absent the people that were imported in and known to be carrying the virus.

If cases pop up, they will be addressed...if it spreads like wild-fire here, then it is fair to criticize, but so far, so good.
 
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jmc11201 said:
I'm no fan of Trump, but agree. He can't go into China, Rambo-style, and do anything.

The bottom line as far as I know is that we haven't had a new case in the United States in a few weeks absent the people that were imported in and known to be carrying the virus.

If cases pop up, they will be addressed...if it spreads like wild-fire here, then it is fair to criticize, but so far, so good.
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It's nice to believe this, but remember. Almost no one in the US is being tested unless they have a direct travel history to China OR direct contact with a known infected person.

Saw this on twitter a little while ago. A doctor relaying an experience another doctor had. Situations like this are occurring all over the country.

"Spoke to ED doc in NY metro area today. Pt he saw today w/fevers chills. Recent travel to Venice. Influenza swab negative. What to do next? Confusion, calls to county health dept. Pt. Discharged home w/pending RSV (respiratory synctial virus) panel. #coronavirus status unknown."

Patient didn't meet the criteria for a coronavirus test. I don't know if there have been any cases in the Venice area, but Italy has rapidly growing number of cases. Probably NOT coronavirus but maybe a case that should be looked at further?

Saw another story a couple of days ago, teenage girl in California who had been to a party where there were people who had recently been in China. She developed a high fever (102+), cough, trouble breathing. Chest xray showed pneumonia. I think flu test was negative. She was sent home without coronavirus test. Last I heard she still had high fever several days later and parents were trying to get her seen elsewhere. At the very least, this sounds like a case where she should be in a hospital? Guess not.

Glad I don't work in front line medicine right now. All it will take is a few of these cases being positive...doctors and nurses will get infected, spread it to other patients...could be happening right now but no one is being tested unless they meet the outdated requirements.
 
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The head of the UN WHO is the former # 3 man In the Marxist government of Ethiopia and his claim to fame in infectious disease control was the false reporting of a Cholera epidemic In country. That when it spread across borders was rapidly recognized and treated.

He attempted to put another ex African nation killer on as good will Ambassador.

The USA pays for approx. 50 % their yearly budget, which includes millions for air travel, some as business class fares.
 
BigWill said:
The head of the UN WHO is the former # 3 man In the Marxist government of Ethiopia and his claim to fame in infectious disease control was the false reporting of a Cholera epidemic In country. That when it spread across borders was rapidly recognized and treated.

He attempted to put another ex African nation killer on as good will Ambassador.

The USA pays for approx. 50 % their yearly budget, which includes millions for air travel, some as business class fares.
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The majority of the world's health crises are in Africa. The continent will be well-represented in organizations like the WHO because they're familiar with the inherent challenges.
 
"You know how to take reservations, you just don't know how to provide rental cars." Planes, Trains, Automobiles.'". Steve Martin.

They know how to have mass health crisis all over the continent, they just don't know how to cure them....
 
A quick google found this info.
The U.S. Government and the World Health Organization | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Executive Board
WHO’s Executive Board, comprised of 34 members technically qualified in the field of health, facilitates the implementation of the agency’s work plan and provides proposals and recommendations to the Director-General and the WHA.5 The 34 members are drawn from six regions:6
  • 7 represent Africa,
  • 6 represent the Americas,
  • 5 represent the Eastern Mediterranean,
  • 8 represent Europe,
  • 3 represent South-East Asia, and
  • 5 represent the Western Pacific.
https://www.kff.org/global-health-p...government-and-the-world-health-organization/


WHO | Chairman and Officers of the Executive Board
http://apps.who.int/gb/gov/en/chairman-and-officers-of-the-executive-board_en.html


Notice of Assessment by Member State for the Biennium 2020-2021
https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/funding/revised-2019-invoice/en/
 
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MADHAT1 said:
A quick google found this info.
The U.S. Government and the World Health Organization | The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Executive Board
WHO’s Executive Board, comprised of 34 members technically qualified in the field of health, facilitates the implementation of the agency’s work plan and provides proposals and recommendations to the Director-General and the WHA.5 The 34 members are drawn from six regions:6
  • 7 represent Africa,
  • 6 represent the Americas,
  • 5 represent the Eastern Mediterranean,
  • 8 represent Europe,
  • 3 represent South-East Asia, and
  • 5 represent the Western Pacific.
https://www.kff.org/global-health-p...government-and-the-world-health-organization/


WHO | Chairman and Officers of the Executive Board
http://apps.who.int/gb/gov/en/chairman-and-officers-of-the-executive-board_en.html


Notice of Assessment by Member State for the Biennium 2020-2021
https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/funding/revised-2019-invoice/en/
Click to expand...

Hey, now come on. You know better than this. It's bad form on this board to let facts get in the way of a good racist rant.
 
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Just had a company meeting on this - we're a small company so no big deal. We have 4 programmers down in Guatemala (city and country) - they're pretty worried about it because they don't have the level of communication or action that we have here. They did relay that there has been a family quarantined due to symptoms, but no other news on that.
 

Evaluation of Persons Under Investigation (PUI) for 2019-nCoV
For any patient meeting criteria for evaluation for COVID-19, clinicians are encouraged to contact and collaborate with their state or local health department. For patients that are severely ill, evaluation for COVID-19 may be considered even if a known source of exposure has not been identified.
 
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Proud NJ Sports Fan said:
80 suspected cases in Long Island
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Once again you can't get anything right. There are not 80 suspected cases at all. There are 83 people who had traveled to China and are now under "voluntary quarantine" and monitoring to make sure they don't have the virus - and so far nobody has been diagnosed with the virus. And this was after you said, "When you post something smart, it will be the first time," to me earlier in the thread. Moron.

Eighty-three Nassau County residents have been asked to undergo a two-week voluntary quarantine from the date that they traveled to China or had contact with someone infected with the virus, news station WPVI reported.

“We’re monitoring this situation in Nassau very, very closely and have been right from the beginning to respond to any cases should they emerge in our county,” Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said at a press conference.

The group is required to report their temperature and any symptoms every day to local health officials, WPVI reported.

No one has been diagnosed with the virus, but tests for one resident are pending, officials said.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/26/83-pe...-monitored-for-possible-coronavirus-exposure/
 
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cohwx said:
It's nice to believe this, but remember. Almost no one in the US is being tested unless they have a direct travel history to China OR direct contact with a known infected person.

Saw this on twitter a little while ago. A doctor relaying an experience another doctor had. Situations like this are occurring all over the country.

"Spoke to ED doc in NY metro area today. Pt he saw today w/fevers chills. Recent travel to Venice. Influenza swab negative. What to do next? Confusion, calls to county health dept. Pt. Discharged home w/pending RSV (respiratory synctial virus) panel. #coronavirus status unknown."

Patient didn't meet the criteria for a coronavirus test. I don't know if there have been any cases in the Venice area, but Italy has rapidly growing number of cases. Probably NOT coronavirus but maybe a case that should be looked at further?

Saw another story a couple of days ago, teenage girl in California who had been to a party where there were people who had recently been in China. She developed a high fever (102+), cough, trouble breathing. Chest xray showed pneumonia. I think flu test was negative. She was sent home without coronavirus test. Last I heard she still had high fever several days later and parents were trying to get her seen elsewhere. At the very least, this sounds like a case where she should be in a hospital? Guess not.

Glad I don't work in front line medicine right now. All it will take is a few of these cases being positive...doctors and nurses will get infected, spread it to other patients...could be happening right now but no one is being tested unless they meet the outdated requirements.
Click to expand...

Given transmission rates in China and the moderately long incubation period from infection to symptoms (median of 4 days), it does seem almost inevitable that we'll see at least local outbreaks in the US. I do, however, have modest hope that transmission rates will go down in the spring (if it behaves like influenza in that way), so maybe it wouldn't become an epidemic here. One thing the Administration has to do better on, though, is that the CDC has to get all the test kits working out in the field, since time to detection needs to be as short as possible.
 
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