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OT: Big Heatwave/EDIT: Debbie passes well to west but band of showers and squall line and tornado watch to get thru

Collossal bust overall. If you were in south jersey or jersey shore you saw peanuts from the so called Friday/ Saturday event hyped by mets and models to dump widespread 1-2 inches everywhere with possible pockets of 3-5 Those amounts were rare and only parts of the jersey shore got those extreme amounts. Nyc and northeast Jersey is getting in on it late and may hit 1-2 inches

We needed the rain and it was a whiff for most of the state. A case of the haves and have nots.
Cape May and Atlantic County took the brunt of it. Woodbine was over 6in in less than 24 hours but a very narrow area, plus they can handle it with the high amount of sand in the soil. Not a high population area. No real concerns. Getting rain now.
As for the rest of South Jersey and Philadelphia a huge bust. Some light rain overnight and now the sun in peaking out. They better revise the afternoon temperatures today as they were counting on rain/dense clouds most of the morning.
 
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It will be close to 90 around the state. Some will begin Heatwave #3 today which will last through Wednesday which will peak on Tuesday with highs approaching 100.
 
We might get lucky with the rain this morning, as the latest short term models are showing <1/4" of rain for most of the area today, especially along/NW of 95 (although admittedly the models have been pretty bad for this event since yesterday), meaning perhaps a few showers (some of which could still be heavy, especially in the morning, so there will still likely be scattered areas that get up to 1" of rain), interspersed with long spells of cloudy but dry weather. We'll see, as the NWS is still calling for about 3/4" of rain today for most of the area - although they have backed off the 1-2" forecast for today that they had last night. Crossing fingers for that and minimal thunder/lightning.
 
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We might get lucky with the rain this morning, as the latest short term models are showing <1/4" of rain for most of the area today, especially along/NW of 95 (although admittedly the models have been pretty bad for this event since yesterday), meaning perhaps a few showers (some of which could still be heavy, especially in the morning, so there will still likely be scattered areas that get up to 1" of rain), interspersed with long spells of cloudy but dry weather. We'll see, as the NWS is still calling for about 3/4" of rain today for most of the area - although they have backed off the 1-2" forecast for today that they had last night. Crossing fingers for that and minimal thunder/lightning.
Major bust..models and nws need to come to heel
 
We might get lucky with the rain this morning, as the latest short term models are showing <1/4" of rain for most of the area today, especially along/NW of 95 (although admittedly the models have been pretty bad for this event since yesterday), meaning perhaps a few showers (some of which could still be heavy, especially in the morning, so there will still likely be scattered areas that get up to 1" of rain), interspersed with long spells of cloudy but dry weather. We'll see, as the NWS is still calling for about 3/4" of rain today for most of the area - although they have backed off the 1-2" forecast for today that they had last night. Crossing fingers for that and minimal thunder/lightning.
#s What site will show rain amounts daily by zip code. We had about 45 minutes of rain this am. Suns out now
 
We might get lucky with the rain this morning, as the latest short term models are showing <1/4" of rain for most of the area today, especially along/NW of 95 (although admittedly the models have been pretty bad for this event since yesterday), meaning perhaps a few showers (some of which could still be heavy, especially in the morning, so there will still likely be scattered areas that get up to 1" of rain), interspersed with long spells of cloudy but dry weather. We'll see, as the NWS is still calling for about 3/4" of rain today for most of the area - although they have backed off the 1-2" forecast for today that they had last night. Crossing fingers for that and minimal thunder/lightning.

Bergen got some rain this morning. 1/4 sounds right but a few local areas got more.
 
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Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Calm wind.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 76.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
A chance of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
 
It's disgusting in South Jersey this morning. Heat, humidity, and I have to sit for hours watching boys youth soccer.

So excited. LOL.
 
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We got just a hair over half an inch of rain overnight. RU#'s map above showed that we weren't supposed to get anything. Glad we did, we need the rain.
 
We got just a hair over half an inch of rain overnight. RU#'s map above showed that we weren't supposed to get anything. Glad we did, we need the rain.
I didn't post any expected rainfall maps - those were radar estimates of how much rain fell over a specific period.

We barely had any rain (maybe a light shower for 5 min) and even had some sun and more heat than expected in much of CNJ today (after sunrise). I have to say the NWS and most media weather sources busted badly on the predicted precipitation for almost the entire region with most getting 1/4" or less (with a few locations getting 0.5-1.0" and many getting <0.1"); this is vs. the 1-2" forecast area-wide last night (with maxes near 3-4"). It happens sometimes in very complex setups and this was very complex.

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It's disgusting in South Jersey this morning. Heat, humidity, and I have to sit for hours watching boys youth soccer.

So excited. LOL.
Played in a disc golf tourney at RU today with two rounds taking from about 9 am until 4:30 pm. Barely a shower in NB the first round with clouds and high humidity and then late in the round the sun came out and really turned up the heat from about 11 am through the afternoon. Was just soupy, lol, and I was drenched by the end of it - luckily there was some shade on most of the holes, but I still got a bit of a sunburn, even with sunscreen. But I'll take heat/humidity over rain for playing disc golf every time.
 
#s What site will show rain amounts daily by zip code. We had about 45 minutes of rain this am. Suns out now
For NJ, it's easy, as the site linked below has daily rainfall amounts for dozens of sites (not by zipcode though, but not hard to find a location near any NJ zipcode), plus the 2nd link has rainfall data displayed graphically for NJ (for the past 24 hours or shorter periods).

https://www.njweather.org/data/daily

https://www.njweather.org/maps/

If you're looking for other states, every NWS office has a webpage like the one linked below for the NWS Philly office, where one can find past daily rainfall data (and other data, such as temps, snowfall, etc.) for years for about a dozen or more locations in that region, which should get one close to most zipcodes.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi

Since I'm usually looking for data for regional areas, I tend to rely on the type of graphics I posted yesterday on radar-estimated rainfall for the past 6-72 hours, typically. The site linked below requires a bit of site-knowledge to get the types of graphics I usually post, though. Hope this helps.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/
 
For NJ, it's easy, as the site linked below has daily rainfall amounts for dozens of sites (not by zipcode though, but not hard to find a location near any NJ zipcode), plus the 2nd link has rainfall data displayed graphically for NJ (for the past 24 hours or shorter periods).

https://www.njweather.org/data/daily

https://www.njweather.org/maps/

If you're looking for other states, every NWS office has a webpage like the one linked below for the NWS Philly office, where one can find past daily rainfall data (and other data, such as temps, snowfall, etc.) for years for about a dozen or more locations in that region, which should get one close to most zipcodes.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi

Since I'm usually looking for data for regional areas, I tend to rely on the type of graphics I posted yesterday on radar-estimated rainfall for the past 6-72 hours, typically. The site linked below requires a bit of site-knowledge to get the types of graphics I usually post, though. Hope this helps.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/
I use this one also

https://www.weather.gov/phi/rainfall-monitoring

You can just put in your county from the drop down box
 
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Major bust..models and nws need to come to heel
Definitely a major bust, but no idea what you mean by they need to "come to heel." Usually, that implies someone or some organization needs to submit and obey to someone else. That's just silly here, as meteorology isn't some rogue operation. Most of the models were wrong (the NAM was the absolute worst), meaning the NWS and just about every other forecaster were wrong, as they rely heavily on the models. It happens on occasion and it's far more likely to happen in extremely complex setups like this one, where the energy and moisture in the atmosphere were at record levels and when that occurs the actual outcomes often are far different from what is modeled, given the chaotic nature of numerical weather prediction as a mathematical science.

As I've said countless times, the energy in the atmosphere in summer, especially on very hot and humid days, is at least 10X what it is in winter when we're concerned with snowfall, for example, which makes it far harder to predict precip outcomes accurately. Just imagine the hue and cry in winter if we had areas like Cape May getting 6+ feet of snow, while 90% of NJ got <6" of snow with some areas getting no snow. That simply can't happen in winter, though, because of the far less energy/moisture in the atmosphere, but we see this kind of variability often with mesoscale convective systems like lines of t-storms and macroscale/mesoscale events like this past one, which have larger synoptic elements and localized convective elements. We'll always have the potential for variations like this in summer and I doubt our models will ever be able to resolve this conundrum. We'll see of course.
 
Here's the crazy radar estimate precip over the last 24 hours, showing an incredibly steep gradient from flooding rains in SENJ/DE to moderate rains a bit inland from the coast to just east of 95 to essentially nada along and NW of 95, which was not what was forecast. It happens. Models still all over the place for overnight through tomorrow early afternoon, but the NWS is sticking with likely heavy rains (1-2" with locally up to 5") for anyone near, along and SE of 95.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM, starting to see some increase in shower activity
from the south and southwest. The water vapor imagery shows an
impulse moving up across the eastern Carolinas and eastern
Virginia, and this feature should result in additional
increases in showers especially overnight into early Saturday
morning. Thunder has been rather sparse so far as
shower/convection is more low-topped, however the greater
chance for some thunder appears to be late tonight when some
increased forcing for ascent arrives. Made some additional
adjustments to the PoPs given trends and continued with the idea
of a slower thunder mention northward.

Guidance continues to pinpoint the heaviest rainfall potential
from across portions of Delmarva and into the urban corridor
through early Saturday afternoon. An additional wave of
widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to
impact this area beginning around daybreak Saturday through
around midday. Widespread rainfall amounts near 1-2" can be
expected, with locally higher amounts up to 5" possible.
While much of the area has been dry recently, the rainfall
rates may lead to some areas of flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas. The Flood Watch remains in effect as previously
issued through 2 PM Saturday to highlight this threat.

.


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Here's an updated radar estimate of rainfall since Thursday night. Insanely steep gradient from a few inches (or several) of rain to <1/4" of rain, which was what most in our region saw. In NJ, only areas along and close to the shore and a few spots along/SE of 95 in NENJ got over 1" of rain (with the big amounts of 3-7" confined to SENJ). NYC/LI/SE CT did get fairly heavy rains as forecast.

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Another day where the rain just didn’t materialize for me. Southern Hunterdon County on the PA border and we got a shower for maybe 3-5 minutes early afternoon and nothing after that. My poor lawn.
 
Today was flat out nasty. And I had the pleasure of driving up from the shore through those mid-afternoon downpours in Monmouth and Middlesex yesterday. At least they knocked down the temperature.
 
Good for you! But it still sucks trying to get your exercise in with this weather.
Thank you! I'm definitely happy to keep moving but if it wasn't job related there's no way I'm moving this much outside in this heat. I do make sure I walk the dog early though to give him some exercise.
 
Thank you! I'm definitely happy to keep moving but if it wasn't job related there's no way I'm moving this much outside in this heat. I do make sure I walk the dog early though to give him some exercise.
Yup, when my dog was alive (God rest your soul Leo) I would always walk him very first thing in this weather then hang out in the yard later.
 
Hamilton hit 100
Our car thermometer, which is actually pretty damn accurate (I've checked it against our very accurate home thermometer), hit 100F today (in the shade, before I started the car) around 3 pm. Played a round of disc golf at 9 am to beat the heat and that didn't really work, lol - was drenched a few holes in and lost a few pounds despite drinking about 2 pounds (32 oz) of water.

At least we get a nice respite for Thursday through Sunday with largely seasonable temps (mid/upper 80s, maybe touching 90F) and acceptable humidity (dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s) and probably beyond that will be decent, too.
 
My wildest experience with the heat was in 1993,while running 5 miles on the track at Kearny High(The world was a lot more open before 9/11 and COVID).
It was at 4 PM,so the shadow of the school covered half of the track.The temperature was a cool 103.
When I ran from the shady side onto the sunny portion,it felt as if I just had walked into a blast furnace.
Keep in mind that the surface temperature of these tracks after absorbing the heat all day can be up to 40 degrees higher than is the air.
It amazes me with what I could do at 43 compared to what I can do today.
 
Was already 88° on the drive into work this morning. Ugh!
 
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