Almost every model shows an inland solution now, from east of the Apps to friggin' Detroit, lol, except for the Canadian, which shows a track basically over NYC and gives a little front end snow to areas north of I-80, with a bit more north of I-84, but all rain south of 80 - the other models give all rain for the entire area and even up to Canada, with snows being pretty far west (Ohio). It would be a pretty epic reversal at this point to get snow for NJ, but I'll remain only 99% convinced until tomorrow night's models, which will include all the pieces of energy over land.
The primary storm Wednesday into Thursday is now pretty well modeled to be heading through the TN/OH Valleys towards the eastern Great Lakes, bringing heavy rains (1-2"), warm temps, and possibly high winds. No snow with that one for anyone east of the Apps, all the way up to Canada.
The first storm, Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is a pretty minor storm, is being modeled totally differently by some of the models. Most of the models show a relatively weak coastal low forming and bringing rain to just about everyone in our area, except for maybe up to an inch of snow in the far NW locations, like the Poconos, Sussex County and parts of the Hudson Valley.
Here's the interesting thing, though. The NAM (the one that nailed the blizzard) and the Canadian are showing a few inches of snow for all of north/central Jersey/eastern PA (and NYC/LI) as far south as 195/276 in NJ/PA for Tues night into Wednesday morning. Even if this occurred, temps would be borderline, but given that the precip would be at night, accumulations would be possible, even on untreated surfaces. Obviously, a low probability, but worth keeping an eye on, just in case these models are on to something.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER
THE WARM
FRONT AND WITH ENOUGH LIFT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
ALSO, A WARM NOSE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WOULD
RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION BEING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN THAT WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS IN PLACE, WENT WARMER THAN
MET/
MAV
GUIDANCE WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN MOST PARTS
OF THE REGION WHERE COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS COULD LINGER
TUESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK
LIGHT WITH UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW AND LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN ICE
OF ICE FOR THE FOLLWING COUNTIES CARBON, MONROE PA AND SUSSEX NJ.
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP FURTHER WEST ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER THE LOW PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER
RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME BREAKS BEFORE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE HEAVIER PERIOD OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELED
RAINFALL FROM 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE MMEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR
RIVER FLOODING AS WELL IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHEN TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELED SOUDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.