The latest IHME (U of Washington) model forecast is pretty bleak, predicting 440K US deaths by the end of February, which includes 383K by the end of January and 318K by the end of the year, from our starting point of about 240K now. The model run shows an acceleration in deaths from the current rate of 1000-1500 deaths per day to about 2000-2200 deaths per day from December through February, given the huge current rise in cases ongoing, which has 2-4 week lag before deaths start climbing quickly.
This should not be a surprise to anyone who has read what most of the experts have been talking about with regard to cases rising this fall as people went back to school/universities, as well as the return of colder weather driving people back indoors much more, leading to more infections, which is part of what sends flu cases up every year. The model run also shows a "best case" of 370K deaths by the end of February, if we see far more masking/distancing than we're seeing now, and a worst case of 586K deaths if there is a significant decline in vigilance by the public.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
While things are certainly bleak, I think the death estimates are a bit overestimated, as I believe that the new antibody treatments will start to make a difference in December, as they get emergency approvals, plus I think vaccines will start to make a difference by late January, given expected rollout in early December, at least for health care/front line workers, who are most at risk - I think most of these people should have immunity by mid-January, reducing deaths significantly.
I'd guess more like 400K deaths by the end of February (vs. 440K), although either number is horrible and largely a function of us not really having great interventions in place, with masking/distancing nowhere near universal and mediocre testing, tracing and isolating efforts. For what it's worth, back in early September, IHME was predicting 410K deaths by the end of the year, while I was predicting 310K deaths, given expected improvements in procedures/treatments and accounting for people already infected (see the linked post, below) - and we're very likely to have about 310-315K deaths by the end of the year. Let's hope I'm right on my new prediction (vs. IHME's higher numbers).
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4686684
The other somewhat good news for this area is that deaths in NY/NJ are not expected to rise nearly as much as the rest of the country. NY is projected to rise from about 34K current deaths to 45.5K, a ~34% increase vs. the US's ~85% increase from now through Feb and NJ is expected to rise from about 16.5K to 20.1K by the end of Feb, a 22% increase. Keep in mind, however, that some of lower expected increase is because our deaths are much higher per capita than elsewhere to date, given how early we were hit before we had testing or any plans to control the virus - everywhere else is playing catch-up, unfortunately.