OT: Daily Covid thread 9/22
- Thread starter Tango Two
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Well, figured the daily COVID threads haven't been that productive lately, so thought maybe if we try to discuss one really important COVID-related topic that is very much science-driven, perhaps we can keep this on topic, i.e., the science behind the vaccines, the status and progress of the ongoing clinical trials with regard to both safety and efficacy, and in what ways vaccine deployment can hopefully allow us to keep the novel coronavirus at bay, if not beat it into submission. The NY Times vaccine tracker is a great resource, as is the occasional update of the vaccine landscape and key breaking news for the major vaccines by Derek Lowe (In the Pipeline Blog). In addition from a more scientific perspective, the video below by noted virologist, Dr. Krammer, which is a little over a month old, is still one of the best resources out there on the science involved with each of the major vaccine candidates. Let's see how this experiment goes...
NY Times Vaccine Tracker
Derek Lowe's In The Pipeline Blog
Dr. Krammer's Video on Vaccines
In addition, I'm providing an updated (from a post of mine a few weeks ago) bulleted summary of the 9 vaccines that are currently in pivotal phase III clinical trials, which will determine the safety and efficacy of each vaccine candidate. We're really getting down to brass tacks soon, with the pivotal phase III trial results likely only about 6-12 weeks away and I'm still optimistic we'll have an approved vaccine by the end of the year; approvals before Thanksgiving seem very unlikely however, given how much data are being generated and how much there will be to review prior to approval. All of the vaccines had reasonably good safety profiles and implied efficacy (prompting good immune responses) in phase I/II, so far, meaning no major red flags, but these were obviously in smaller phase II trials w/o any data on conferring immunity yet.
Keep in mind that all of the vaccines in phase III right now will require an initial shot and then a booster shot (typically a month later) to achieve optimal immunity, with the exception of the J&J (Janssen) vaccine which is looking at a single shot. Some of the vaccines that are a few months behind the frontrunners, like Novavax (in phase II using proteins doped onto adjuvant nanoparticles, which is about to be approved for influenza) and the Merck/Themis vaccine (in phase I using the measles virus vector platform, which is proven) are looking at single shots and possibly greater immunity levels; there are dozens more than those two and the Times article does mention about 42 phase I/II vaccines in development. Also, remember that the FDA is saying a vaccine is "effective" if it can "prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated," so it's possible efficacy will look similar to the flu vaccine (although most experts expect much greater than 50% protection).
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/21/the-vaccine-protocols
In addition, here are a few more interesting links on some key issues for these vaccines. The first one is another Lowe blog entry, this time on what exactly "cold chain" means for vaccine stability, supply chains, and availability, especially in the 3rd world. The 2nd one is also a Lowe blog, on what can sound like a mundane topic, but it really isn't, as it's on things like ensuring there are enough glass vials or silica-coated vials for billions of doses and ensuring that the vials used are gas tight (a key for stability), which is no trivial task. I've done a lot of work in both of these areas over the years for new pharmaceuticals and they're not as "sexy" as the actual product, but if mishandled, they can derail an entire product launch.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/31/cold-chain-and-colder-chain-distribution
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/08/materials-and-gases-vials-and-vaccines
NY Times Vaccine Tracker
Derek Lowe's In The Pipeline Blog
Dr. Krammer's Video on Vaccines
In addition, I'm providing an updated (from a post of mine a few weeks ago) bulleted summary of the 9 vaccines that are currently in pivotal phase III clinical trials, which will determine the safety and efficacy of each vaccine candidate. We're really getting down to brass tacks soon, with the pivotal phase III trial results likely only about 6-12 weeks away and I'm still optimistic we'll have an approved vaccine by the end of the year; approvals before Thanksgiving seem very unlikely however, given how much data are being generated and how much there will be to review prior to approval. All of the vaccines had reasonably good safety profiles and implied efficacy (prompting good immune responses) in phase I/II, so far, meaning no major red flags, but these were obviously in smaller phase II trials w/o any data on conferring immunity yet.
Keep in mind that all of the vaccines in phase III right now will require an initial shot and then a booster shot (typically a month later) to achieve optimal immunity, with the exception of the J&J (Janssen) vaccine which is looking at a single shot. Some of the vaccines that are a few months behind the frontrunners, like Novavax (in phase II using proteins doped onto adjuvant nanoparticles, which is about to be approved for influenza) and the Merck/Themis vaccine (in phase I using the measles virus vector platform, which is proven) are looking at single shots and possibly greater immunity levels; there are dozens more than those two and the Times article does mention about 42 phase I/II vaccines in development. Also, remember that the FDA is saying a vaccine is "effective" if it can "prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated," so it's possible efficacy will look similar to the flu vaccine (although most experts expect much greater than 50% protection).
- Moderna's mRNA vaccine; no mRNA vaccine has ever been approved before; requires -20C cold chain (freezers)
- Pfizer/BioNTech's mRNA vaccine - requires -70C cold chain for stability of the formulation (dry ice storage typically - probably not a huge issue in first world countries, but a major issue elsewhere)
- Astra Zeneca/Oxford's chimp adenovirus viral vector vaccine (only 1 vvv has been approved - Merck's Ebola vaccine). A hold was placed on this phase III trial to resolve 2 observations of transverse myelitis (spinal inflammation, not too dissimilar from Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which was a major issue with the Swine Flu vaccine in 1976) - the hold was released in most of the world, but not in the US.
- CanSino's human adenovirus viral vector vaccine; human adenoviruses might have pre-existing immunity issues
- J&J's human adenovirus viral vector vaccine (using an obscure human virus, hoping to avoid the pre-existing immunity issues); this one starts phase III any day now.
- Russia's Gamaleya Institute's human adenovirus viral vector vaccine (already "approved" in Russia - a PR stunt)
- There are three Chinese vaccines (one by Sinovac and two by SinoPharm) using "old school" deactivated actual coronavirus (most vaccines in use today use this approach, but it's much harder to scale and often less potent, but it works usually); two of these also have "emergency use approvals" without phase III data, which is also dumb.
- The last one is an oddball. It's a trial of the existing Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine for tuberculosis in Australia.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/21/the-vaccine-protocols
In addition, here are a few more interesting links on some key issues for these vaccines. The first one is another Lowe blog entry, this time on what exactly "cold chain" means for vaccine stability, supply chains, and availability, especially in the 3rd world. The 2nd one is also a Lowe blog, on what can sound like a mundane topic, but it really isn't, as it's on things like ensuring there are enough glass vials or silica-coated vials for billions of doses and ensuring that the vials used are gas tight (a key for stability), which is no trivial task. I've done a lot of work in both of these areas over the years for new pharmaceuticals and they're not as "sexy" as the actual product, but if mishandled, they can derail an entire product launch.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/31/cold-chain-and-colder-chain-distribution
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/08/materials-and-gases-vials-and-vaccines
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Thanks a million, Numb3rs!
Here's hoping that at least one of these comes through! And thanks for the links.
Here's hoping that at least one of these comes through! And thanks for the links.
Big spike in Case number in Wisconsin, but interesting from graphs in this web site how number of deaths have been falling in relation as the cases have risen. Case numbers graph is near the top of the page, deaths are near the bottom.
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm
And in WI only 12% of deaths occurred in age groups below 60. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/deaths.htm
This web site for State of WI is very comprehensive.
https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm
And in WI only 12% of deaths occurred in age groups below 60. https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/deaths.htm
This web site for State of WI is very comprehensive.
This will bear some watching, as they are still rising in the average of new cases: 2 weeks ago the 7 day average was around 700, now it's at 1800. Usually there's a 2-4 week lag between case rise and death rise.
@Tango Two
Please merge with the new COVID daily thread. Thanks!
Please merge with the new COVID daily thread. Thanks!
+1
Sweden played the long game and will keep looking better and better as time goes on.
This is an extremely useful thread as much as you and a few others will try to troll & derail it. .....it would be better if the mods scrubbed out the trolling/politics and pinned it.
We don't need 100 Covid threads to take over as will happen for each persons thoughts. So what happens with the daily Covid thread?
Not buying this conspiracy, but perhaps in your experience you can explain why you feel that a vaccine prior to the election would be possible? GIven where development and data is right now. its about risk......Pharma will attempt to file when they have data to suggest that they can. Being first to market means much more than politics in the corporate world....and these companies will be around much longer than any one POTUS. Fastest vaccine to market ever was ebola at 4+ years. The new RNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are looking to incredibly accellerate that cycle....but are unproven commercially.
Depends on where the cases are. If it’s in Madison due to back to school maybe not as worrisome. If it’s Kenosha where the looting and rioting took place and there are older, sicker people it could be an issue.
No spin CV thread, to counteract the propaganda thread by #'s
Vaccine Makers are working on an incredibly accelerated timeframe as it is. There is a process that needs to be followed. If we can get it by Q1 ‘21, I’ll take it. This has been J&J’s goal from Day 1.
Is Harley Davidson Corporate HQ in Wisconsin? Did any of the employees go to Sturgis by chance?
No. Why must you ruin everything? #s specifically scoped this to be a scientific thread - something Is think you'd be interested in given what you do - and you just want to drag it into bickering. Serious question - why?
I actually agree with numbers. We need a thread that ONLY focuses on the vaccines. Not allowed to discuss anything else.
Swedish is doing great right now
en.as.com
How many coronavirus cases are there in Sweden without lockdown?
Anders Tegnell, Sweden s top epidemiologist, said duriung a recent interview that the decision not to lock down had proved the correct one.
I agree. This is a useful thread.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
This should be fun
I think a thread called:
COVID; bullshit, pseudoscience, fearporn, drama and exaggeration.
Is in order...it might be full of misinformation, half truths and politically slanted nuggets, but it would be fun!
I think a thread called:
COVID; bullshit, pseudoscience, fearporn, drama and exaggeration.
Is in order...it might be full of misinformation, half truths and politically slanted nuggets, but it would be fun!
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1) They didn’t do nothing and social distanced better than most countries (including us)
2) It didn’t work well, their death rate is way higher than most countries, especially their neighbors
3) Their numbers have dropped and have remained very low since their initial phase. Most likely due to a combination of low population density, low imported cases, social distancing and their culture.
Agreed, we don't need 2 corona threads (especially since 1 is just to get #'s more attention).
One thread for science believers and another thread for Trump supporters.
I haven’t been following these threads . But I saw numbers posted a vaccine, science based thread . That wouldn’t qualify as propaganda
Why does Sweden doing so well upset you? You and many others have been wrong from the beginning with their long game strategy.
Exactly, informative updates on vaccines are more than welcome...circle jerks like this? Well, not so much.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Like weather, if coming to TKR is necessary for actual information gathering, then you’re doing it wrong.
this place is just for entertainment and should never be viewed otherwise.
Still the drama is compelling in a fun way...
this place is just for entertainment and should never be viewed otherwise.
Still the drama is compelling in a fun way...
You have issues
Sweden didnt wreck their economy and even had a week with no deaths
They are living normal. No masks..no anything
It would be a great place for you to go on vacation
It definitely does not upset me. But this thread is for facts. If you want to speak in twitter spam speak, go to that other Covid thread. Goodbye.
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