OT: Does anyone know anyone who has tested positive?
- Thread starter Greene Rice FIG
- Start date
My son in LA will be working at home for the next two weeks because one of his coworkers has been exposed.
Doug!!!! You’re free from your message board silence! Miss you sitting behind me
First of all, I wanted to throw out this website because it seems to have accurate real-time information:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
It currently says, 2,499 known American infections, 55 dead, 49 recovered.
It shows the death count, by day, to be ...
Day 1 - Feb 29 - 1 death
Day 2 - Mar 1 - 0
Day 3 - Mar 2 - 5
Day 4 - Mar 3 - 3
Day 5 - Mar 4 - 2
Day 6 - Mar 5 - 1
Day 7 - Mar 6 - 3
Day 8 - Mar 7 - 4
Day 9 - Mar 8 - 3
Day 10 - Mar 9 - 4
Day 11 - Mar 10 - 4
Day 12 - Mar 11 - 8
Day 13 - Mar 12 - 3
Day 14 - Mar 13 - 8
So it's been two weeks and we haven't seen a significant spike in American deaths. Compare this to Italy, where on Day 13 (they are about five days ahead of the United States), they had 133 deaths, Day 14 they had 97 deaths, and on Day 15 they had 168 deaths. The website shows China's peak deaths to have spiked between Day 21 and Day 32. I don't entirely trust the Chinese information because I believe they lie (and likely killed off some of their infirm early in the outbreak), but these are the numbers we have.
Can any of the medical professionals in the thread let us know when this spike is supposed to come to America?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
It currently says, 2,499 known American infections, 55 dead, 49 recovered.
It shows the death count, by day, to be ...
Day 1 - Feb 29 - 1 death
Day 2 - Mar 1 - 0
Day 3 - Mar 2 - 5
Day 4 - Mar 3 - 3
Day 5 - Mar 4 - 2
Day 6 - Mar 5 - 1
Day 7 - Mar 6 - 3
Day 8 - Mar 7 - 4
Day 9 - Mar 8 - 3
Day 10 - Mar 9 - 4
Day 11 - Mar 10 - 4
Day 12 - Mar 11 - 8
Day 13 - Mar 12 - 3
Day 14 - Mar 13 - 8
So it's been two weeks and we haven't seen a significant spike in American deaths. Compare this to Italy, where on Day 13 (they are about five days ahead of the United States), they had 133 deaths, Day 14 they had 97 deaths, and on Day 15 they had 168 deaths. The website shows China's peak deaths to have spiked between Day 21 and Day 32. I don't entirely trust the Chinese information because I believe they lie (and likely killed off some of their infirm early in the outbreak), but these are the numbers we have.
Can any of the medical professionals in the thread let us know when this spike is supposed to come to America?
It all depends if the social distancing will flatten the curve to a level under the limits that healthcare can handle. If everyone does their part, there really won’t be a huge spike just a steady leveling of cases and fatalities until this epidemic resolves naturally or with medical assistance (vaccines).
Reporting. Recent data for hospitalizations showed that either endpoints being discharge or death showed an actual mortality rate to be 23% in China. However that will drop as the endpoint was JUST discharge or death.
That being said temporal distance between the two was not far at all. Discharge was on average day 22 whereas death was day 18.5. Most hospitalizations were WAY longer...and every single piece of data shows, every additional day in a hospital increases potential chance of mortality.
The most concerning piece of data is more than 20% of all hospital admins required ICU admission, with the majority of those requiring ventilation support or going septic.
If anyone here has ever rounded in an ICU, you know the resources that go into that kind of support. It can crush a hospitals resources in no time.
So while right now the deaths are small- you cross that threshold and then the deaths stack because of strained resources and you simply cant self correct until deaths have outpaced new critical infections and the curves goes back.
Why currently in Washungton some hospitals are already sounding the alarms they only have enough gowns/gloves for 4 more days of work.
I jest spent a bunch of time on the website you posted. If you assume the Chinese are lying, the peak has yet to come anywhere which is scary. I personally do not believe chinas numbers because there infected numbers per million are relatively low. It doesn’t add up.
I really think it will. Cancelling the NBA and NCAA really woke up some non-believers. A spike in cases over the next two weeks is a given since people weren't adhering to distancing til a couple of days ago but after that we're gonna see a big dropoff.
At this point it will fork 1 of 2 ways.
We stop the spread and everyone stays home and isolated next 2 weeks, a couple hundred to a thousand.
No one listens and large gatherings keep on...who the hell knows but could easily dwarf flu season x2 or way worse.
NYC was a mixed bag. Downtown you could catch a su way with 1 person in a car. Awesome good job. Upper west side was like a death cult.
We just gotta follow the real test curve now.
Brennan had about 4 things working against him...lung issue, high blood pressure, stomach bleeding and diabetes. Is that enough?
No it wasnt. 4 mil would be a 1.5% mortality rate for all of the US being infected. Just stop stirring the pot and being an ass.
And again. It forks from here.
We continue to **** around. It gets bad.
We self-isolate and let the treating centers handle the flow, we are in much much better shape But currently the US has managed this worse than any industrialized and non-industrialized nation to date.
We only know the true mortality projection once the kits get full flowing. But estimating high end when this thing CRUSHES healthcare resources is beyond prudent.
Again anyone that has been in an ICU would know the supportive measures this requires, needed hysteria from Day 1 to keep the spread low. We are not equipped to handle an ICU slam in this cou try at all.
UPENN a 1000 bed hospital.....had 60 test kits as of 2 days ago. Let that sink in.
So I ask again ... how many deaths do you think we will see from the Coronavirus? I was asked this question three days ago and I said far less than 150,000. If I can give a number, I think the medical experts should be able to predict a number. Especially since the medical community has unanimously announced we should crash the economy and end all social activities for a minimum of two weeks (I've seen two months in some places) to combat this problem. If the general public should be expected to just take the advice of the unanimous medical community (we're all uneducated rubes after all), I think it's only fair that the medical community provide a death toll prediction so we can gauge their accuracy when it's all over.
This is the most telling thing you wrote.
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ER doctor is a friend of mine. He says all the doctors believe they're going to get it.
Talk about bravery.
I know we have HIPPA etc but I think we should be aware of who tests positive either by name or by at least where they have been. People need to be aware in the event we need to quarantine ourselves
Seems a like time to disappear to Outer Banks NC for a few weeks. Lots of rental houses avail and not many people around in the off the beaten areas (southern area). One trip to a supermarket and no other reason to step foot indoors in a public place.
Woman in her 50s from manalapan died Thursday at Centra State. Just confirmed it was due to Coronavirus
Bet Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson will be making the tv talk show rounds in about 2-3 weeks ...Let’s see The View, CNN, MSNBC, Colbert, Kimmel, Kelly and Ryan ...and then he’ll write the screen version of COVID19 and star in it...
Here is the thing ...tests are fine but we don’t have a vaccine or anti viral that could lessen the severity...also once we know a positive test do we assume people will self quarantine if symptoms are not deadly? People this weekend were still going out to eat, bars were open and I’m sure malls had more people than expected in the throes of this illness.
Which is the only reason why I go nuts in these threads.
I'm shocked when I hear the argument "but the economy because of the hysteria". It is a drop in the bucket what has happened if we dont get in front of this. Suck it up and eat the losses. If this things burns out of control, thesepast weeks will look mild from a market perspective.
We need to get those people to stop thinking "I ain't old, I ain't gonna get sick, it's all lib hype"and realize it's about keeping those most vulnerable around us safe.
It's hard to get certain people to think of conequences past 1node of causality but if people start to realize how bad it can get because they arent the only ones thinking in such a selfish manner, we can get ahead of this.
I agree 100%. The president calling it a hoax a few weeks ago did a lot of damage. We should started mass testing and social distancing weeks ago.
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It's going to take a bunch of cases of healthy 20/30/40 year olds dying to get a lot of these people to take this seriously, I'm afraid. That or scenes like we saw in Wuhan where hospitals were overflowing and people were dying in hallways and on the street.
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What causes someone to be like that?
Just scary to see a member of this board say "I'll only start paying attention after 300k dead."
What causes someone to be like that?
Speaking of 20/30/40 year olds, just came across this article referencing the situation in Teaneck. Eleven patients in the hospital, 6 in the ICU, some on ventilators. All in the age range 28-48. No mention of pre-existing conditions. Some cases show very rapid progression. One case where they were getting ready to discharge and then patient went downhill and into the ICU.
https://www.roi-nj.com/2020/03/14/opinion/life-at-the-epicenter-of-n-j-s-coronavirus-outbreak/
https://www.roi-nj.com/2020/03/14/opinion/life-at-the-epicenter-of-n-j-s-coronavirus-outbreak/
So are you saying the cdc is lying to you when they say those younger than 40 have very little risk of death in the grand scheme of things
Haven't been on the hoops board in awhile. Great posts here - you should post in the pinned thread on the football board, which is now on page 17 - tons of good info there, too. I also added some other very useful links on data/graphics on infections, deaths, tests, etc. world-wide, as well as some other links.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ng-ugly-good-luck.191275/page-16#post-4451914
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/europe/spain-coronavirus-emergency.html?smtyp=cur&smid=fb-nytimes&fbclid=IwAR2Y_ORmy6YPBGQATTs6GdPVnSo76kk525ZWQ9byk2Dg9MWceaap-XrKq4c
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
https://wcbs880.radio.com/articles/news/hoboken-implements-curfew-shuts-down-bars-over-coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/home/index.html
People are simply clueless about this and what's about to hit, if we don't lock everything down NOW - it could make Italy look like child's play, especially in very densely populated areas like NYC. Not tomorrow or Tuesday, but now. Hoboken has it right. We're in a war. We need to call it a war and mobilize all resources to prevent and fight this.
Below is what I posted Friday night, since people here seem to be wondering about scenarios...
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ng-ugly-good-luck.191275/page-13#post-4449767
I'm not qualified to say what the most likely scenario is, but I can give some possible ones and one comment - because the math is so scary, we've been in lockdown in our house for 11 days now with over a months worth of supplies - meaning we want to do our part to try to contain this, which is also part of why I've been posting so much about this here and many other places.
I've actually posted about a few scenarios numerous times. If we do nothing or even if we're simply unsuccessful at containment in the long term, meaning most of the country eventually (over the next year or so) gets the virus, which is at least a 50/50 possibility, IMO, given our very poor start in testing and identifying/quarantining infected people, then it's simple math.
If you assume that it's similarly transmissible as the flu (it's actually more transmissible) and the flu death rate is 0.1% (30-60K deaths/year usually) and the mortality rate for this is 0.5-1.0% (the range we're seeing in South Korea with very aggressive testing, so the deaths per infected people is known best there), then we'd likely see 150K-600K deaths/year in the first year.
There are also even worse case scenarios out there from the CDC, where they assume 50-70% of the 300 million US population gets the disease over a couple of years (assuming no vaccine) and the mortality rate is 0.5-1.0% that would lead to 0.75-2.0 million deaths over 2-3 years. The scenario above probably ends up at similar total deaths over multiple years.
And in both scenarios above 10X that many could need hospitalization. The only "good" news with the scenarios that large percentages of become infected is that most people who survive would then have antibodies to the virus and likely not get very sick if they get infected again, assuming the disease becomes a permanent part of the landscape.
Countries all know that these horrible scenarios are possible, which is why every country is trying very aggressive strategies for containment (except maybe the morons in the UK). On the optimistic side, with aggressive testing and very aggressive social distancing over a few months, it's possible we could have a China-like outcome with maybe tens of thousands infected and a few thousand deaths (we have a lot less people), so the numbers are lower than the 81K confirmed cases and 3120 deaths in China so far and China does appear to be getting close to containment. And if we have those numbers over a couple of months instead of a couple of weeks (like Italy) maybe we can avoid overwhelming the health care system.
The big unknown if many countries are successful in containment like China/South Korea and Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and others (mostly in Asia, where they test heavily, all wear masks and practice aggressive containment and social distancing) appear to be (but not a given yet) is what happens when countries go back to "normal" social interactions and a few new cases pop up, maybe from another country where it's not contained - will they be plunged back into aggressive testing/social distancing? Probably, especially if well less than 0.01% of the population was ever seriously exposed to the virus (100K cases in China is <0.01% of over a billion people).
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll
