OT: Francesca makes the left column on Drudge with SI soccer rant

[Wolv RU]

Not sure why you believe this.

If you aggregate soccer TV viewership (MLS, various Euro leagues, US National Team, etc), it is already one of the most watched sports in the US (easily top ten, probably top five).

Looking at revenue, MLS is just a piece of the pie. For example, MLS/US Soccer just signed a media deal running through 2022 netting $90M/yr... while the Premier League just signed a US broadcast rights deal running through 2022 for $177M/yr... while UEFA Champions league has a deal running through 2018 for $83M/yr... etc, etc. That's not including the FIFA World Cup or other periodic tournaments that don't have a "per year" figure. There's a lot of moving parts, each with their own media deal in the US.

Meanwhile, the "record-breaking" NHL deal signed in 2011 pays out $200M annually through 2021.

Not to get in the way of your denigration of the NHL, but the "record-breaking" deal you cite doesn't account for local deals. For example, the NJ Devils, who are not one of the leagues most popular teams, get $24 million per year from MSG. If you want to compare tv rights $, don't you think the total (local / national deals) is the only way to get an apples to apples comparison.

I think soccer is a great sport, but people are really letting their biases show on this one. For example, if it is so much more popular, why aren't there more youth players in the U.S. (or at least, more players registered with US Youth Soccer) than there were in the year 2000?

Stats from US Youth Soccer:

2000 - 3,020,442
2005 - 3,050,465
2007 - 3,123,698
2008 - 3,148,114
2009 - 3,094,868
2010 - 3,036,438
2011 - 3,025,551
2012 - 3,020,633
2013 - 2,804,711
2014 - 3,055,148

 

[miketd1]

US Youth Soccer does not account for the (likely) millions of minority kids that play in their own unsanctioned leagues.

Why would these kids play in unsanctioned leagues? There are fewer requirements (insurance, field maintenance, uniforms, officiating, coach licensing, etc.) and lower fees.

There's also less traveling, which is quite expensive yet practically required if you want to advance to the higher rungs of US Youth Soccer.

 

[Wolv RU]

US Youth Soccer does not account for the (likely) millions of minority kids that play in their own unsanctioned leagues.

Why would these kids play in unsanctioned leagues? There are fewer requirements (insurance, field maintenance, uniforms, officiating, coach licensing, etc.) and lower fees.

There's also less traveling, which is quite expensive yet practically required if you want to advance to the higher rungs of US Youth Soccer.

But I guess that begs the question, wasn't that also the case in 2000? Or were the insurance etc. costs added after that time?

 

[Wolv RU]

Dude,

Soccer is the #1 sport in the rest of the entire world.

Just don't tell the 2.5 Billion people in India and China they aren't part of the "rest of the entire world." I'm not sure what world popularity has to do with whether something is "exploding" in the U.S. But the point is that people project their experiences, or what they want to see, unto larger topics.

 

[miketd1]

Wolv: I am suggesting that citing US Youth Soccer's participation numbers may not be an accurate metric to support the position that soccer at the youth level as a whole has stagnated or declined because it likely fails to capture all the minority kids who play. What if minority kids playing the game doubled in number during the same time span due to the increased access to parks with goals?

Growing up (20 years ago), you could barely find a field with a goal. Nowadays, you can easily find parks with multiple fields, complete with goals and lines.

 

[RUChoppin]

Not to get in the way of your denigration of the NHL, but the "record-breaking" deal you cite doesn't account for local deals. For example, the NJ Devils, who are not one of the leagues most popular teams, get $24 million per year from MSG. If you want to compare tv rights $, don't you think the total (local / national deals) is the only way to get an apples to apples comparison.

I think soccer is a great sport, but people are really letting their biases show on this one. For example, if it is so much more popular, why aren't there more youth players in the U.S. (or at least, more players registered with US Youth Soccer) than there were in the year 2000?

Stats from US Youth Soccer:

2000 - 3,020,442
2005 - 3,050,465
2007 - 3,123,698
2008 - 3,148,114
2009 - 3,094,868
2010 - 3,036,438
2011 - 3,025,551
2012 - 3,020,633
2013 - 2,804,711
2014 - 3,055,148

For the record re: biases, I don't watch soccer. I don't watch hockey, either. Nor baseball, tennis, golf, or auto racing. I'll watch "events" - like the NHL Playoffs or US National Team soccer major tournament games - but none of those sports get me to sit down in front of a television to watch throughout a season. I'm not living under a rock, though, either - professional level soccer is drawing far, far more interest than it did 20 years ago. Denying that is denying reality.

**

You are right, though, about the national level league deals not taking into account all elements. One could definitely get further into the weeds with local deals, foreign language deals, non-US deals for US leagues/teams, etc. (as a parallel to your example, the Red Bulls also have an MSG deal, for instance, though undoubtedly for far less than the Devils deal).

Getting a true "apples-to-apples" comparison is very difficult given the number of moving parts - especially on the soccer side of the line, as you're dealing with many leagues instead of just one. Any way you slice it, though, "soccer" as a sport is not significantly behind "hockey" as a sport in the media rights landscape. An argument can be made, too, that the trend line for soccer is moving up more rapidly than that of hockey.

***

Also, aside from the point miketd1 made about whether or not US Youth Soccer is a true representation of youth participation, you cherry picked a bit off the front end of that US Youth Soccer data set, too... namely everything prior to 15 years ago that didn't fit the narrative:

1974 - 103,432
1980 - 810,793
1985 - 1,210,408
1990 - 1,615,041
1995 - 2,388,719

In just 25 years, participation has nearly doubled. In the past 35 years, participation has nearly quadrupled.

Sport preference among young people is also important to watch, as interest in soccer has risen significantly in younger demos.
- An ESPN poll in 2012 showed that professional soccer trailed only the NFL in the 12-24 demographic as their "favorite sport" (NFL 24.1%, soccer 13.7%). If you group pro and college together, the data puts football at 33%, basketball at 17.9%, soccer at 13.7%, baseball at 8.1%, and hockey at 4.3%.
- An ESPN poll from earlier this year has shown that MLS has risen in popularity to match MLB among 12-17 year olds (both showing 18% of that demographic as "avid" fans). For reference, the NFL was at 28.8% while the NHL was at 8.9%.

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Agree. Soccer is also much "easier" to play. All u need, technically, is a ball. Its much less expensive and affordable than hockey, which requirs skates, equipment, and a knowledge of skating. This definitely helps soccers move towards and past hockey.

Doesnt mean MLS is overtaking NHL. Long way to go for that, if ever.

Long way? LOL ok

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Basically everything is in place for the MLS the past the NHL. Everything is pending on when the MLS is ready to take the risk and go and get the players that could actually pick up the whole league. Things to take off after 2022 for the MLS and you watch.

 

[miketd1]

Bamm Bamm: to play Devil's Advocate, I don't think we are that close.

I say another 20 years.

But, as a soccer fan, I hope you're right!

 

[mdh2003]

... go and get the players that could actually pick up the whole league...

This is not trivial. Especially when comparing to hockey. NHL obviously get the best of the best, BY FAR, of all the other hockey leagues. Soccer is kinda different where there are top teams in 6-8 leagues that are comparably good. Obviously MLS is not one of them, BY FAR. Will this change in the future? Not sure. Right now, a lot of aging stars come over for a spell (Beckham/Henri/etc.), but you really need those guys in their primes. Look at the money shelled out to the top players worldwide. When/If that money can be spent here, the players will probably come. MLS really needs 2-3 excellent teams that can complete with other top clubs to be considered a real league, especially by the rest of the world.

 

[RUChoppin]

Basically everything is in place for the MLS the past the NHL. Everything is pending on when the MLS is ready to take the risk and go and get the players that could actually pick up the whole league. Things to take off after 2022 for the MLS and you watch.

MLS has a long, long way to go. You can compare "soccer" (in aggregate) to "hockey" (in aggregate)... you just can't really compare MLS to NHL. It would have to more than double in popularity to just pull even.

Not saying that's impossible, but it will take a long time. The pieces are in place, as you say, but the "risk" you're talking about is a financial one. As media deals get better, and as revenue improves, MLS teams will start to pay more to attract better talent from the Euro leagues (where the paychecks are bigger) and it will start to become a draw for top US athletes to choose soccer at a young age over one of the other major sports.

That's not going to happen overnight, and while the trend line is moving in a positive direction for MLS... that doesn't mean it will continue that way forever.

 

[RUevolution36]

Until MLS takes the reins off player salaries, it will never compete against EPL, La Liga, or the Bundesliga, or even Ligue 1, the history-laden but failing Serie A, Eredivisie. The Russian and Chinese leagues are throwing ungodly amounts of money to attract stars and have or will surpass MLS as a destination of choice for fringe 1st team players and aging players from the other European Leagues.

That said, the popularity of soccer is definitely growing. More and more people are talking about the Prem, watching the Prem, etc. MLS is the equivalent of watching the Trenton Thunder. Made for local viewing and interest, but a serious departure from the quality of the more established leagues.

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Long long way to go? Soccer is already more popular, more Americans play also and understand it, players that havent played a single professional game in The MLS are already more popular than any NHL player. Trust me The MLS isn't concerned with The NHL.

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Bamm Bamm: to play Devil's Advocate, I don't think we are that close.

I say another 20 years.

But, as a soccer fan, I hope you're right!

Hell no! That's not how things work now at days trust me. 2022 tv contracts will give us a glimpse of what's to come before the end of that same decade.

 

[RUChoppin]

Long long way to go? Soccer is already more popular, more Americans play also and understand it, players that havent played a single professional game in The MLS are already more popular than any NHL player. Trust me The MLS isn't concerned with The NHL.

There's a big difference between "soccer" and "MLS"... MLS is still basically like a soccer D-League. MLS needs to concern itself with improving compared to other soccer leagues - if it can become one of the premier soccer leagues in the world, no one will be talking about comparisons to the NHL.

 

[RUChoppin]

Looking back at an earlier post of mine....

The combined MLS/US Soccer media deal runs through 2022 for $90M/yr.
The Premier League deal runs through 2022 for $177M/yr
The UEFA Champions league deal runs through 2018 for $83M/yr.
The NHL deal runs through 2021 for $200M/yr

Even assuming MLS is 80% of the combined deal, that's $72M/yr. Now, it's a huge step up from the last combined deal, which was just $27M/yr. They've come a long way, and still have a long way to go. MLS would need to triple its media deal to compare with the NHL, while the NHL deal remained static.

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Leagues and teams become Global phenoms overnight. The MLS is going to be doing damn well really soon.

Hockey can't post the rating The US men's and Mexican men's national team does.

 

[RUChoppin]

Leagues and teams become Global phenoms overnight. The MLS is going to be doing damn well really soon.

Hockey can't post the rating The US men's and Mexican men's national team does.

You can't compare a professional league to a national team. By that measure, a professional women's soccer league would be immensely popular.

With regard to the leagues/teams... as the saying goes, it takes years of hard work to become an overnight success. MLS interest is growing - and they are getting better media rights deals, and gradually expanding their footprint. If that trend continues, they will continue to see growth and a solid upward trend line.

In the meantime, the EPL will still be the biggest soccer draw in the US. I can see more "overseas" EPL games on US soil, and more "friendlies" with MLS teams, as both the MLS and EPL try to capitalize on growing interest in the US market.

 

[Bamm Bamm Rubble]

Wait, WTF? Hard work? Billionaires buy teams and make them globally phenomenal. Soccer has a huge following in this country and there's money to be made. The money will be made! The MLS will become one of the top leagues. I would say top league for sure however domestically the MLS has to compete with the NHL NBA NFL and MLB unlike the other leagues around the world.

 

[RUevolution36]

until MLS is willing to pay its players $100k+ a week, they'll never be a top league. luis suarez makes 200k Euros a week. Messi 250k plus. 250k a week probably pays for an entire squad in MLS minus the designated players.

 

[RUChoppin]

Wait, WTF? Hard work? Billionaires buy teams and make them globally phenomenal. Soccer has a huge following in this country and there's money to be made. The money will be made! The MLS will become one of the top leagues. I would say top league for sure however domestically the MLS has to compete with the NHL NBA NFL and MLB unlike the other leagues around the world.

You'd need multiple billionaires to buy competing MLS teams and begin an arms race of foreign players to do anything close to what you're suggesting, and I think that would be terrible for the league as a whole, stifling the growth of the teams without such a sugar daddy patron. Not to mention it would take a ton up upfront outlay for a return that would come years down the line. I think MLS is growing the "right" way - to try to grow too fast would be a mistake.

For MLS to really be successful in this country, it needs more would-be four-star wide receivers, cornerbacks, point guards, etc to begin to choose soccer over other sports as their primary focus in elementary and middle school, and people who grew up watching, playing and understanding the sport to start teaching the next generation as youth coaches. That doesn't happen overnight.

 

[Wolv RU]

For the record re: biases, I don't watch soccer. I don't watch hockey, either. Nor baseball, tennis, golf, or auto racing. I'll watch "events" - like the NHL Playoffs or US National Team soccer major tournament games - but none of those sports get me to sit down in front of a television to watch throughout a season. I'm not living under a rock, though, either - professional level soccer is drawing far, far more interest than it did 20 years ago. Denying that is denying reality.

**

You are right, though, about the national level league deals not taking into account all elements. One could definitely get further into the weeds with local deals, foreign language deals, non-US deals for US leagues/teams, etc. (as a parallel to your example, the Red Bulls also have an MSG deal, for instance, though undoubtedly for far less than the Devils deal).

Getting a true "apples-to-apples" comparison is very difficult given the number of moving parts - especially on the soccer side of the line, as you're dealing with many leagues instead of just one. Any way you slice it, though, "soccer" as a sport is not significantly behind "hockey" as a sport in the media rights landscape. An argument can be made, too, that the trend line for soccer is moving up more rapidly than that of hockey.

***

Also, aside from the point miketd1 made about whether or not US Youth Soccer is a true representation of youth participation, you cherry picked a bit off the front end of that US Youth Soccer data set, too... namely everything prior to 15 years ago that didn't fit the narrative:

1974 - 103,432
1980 - 810,793
1985 - 1,210,408
1990 - 1,615,041
1995 - 2,388,719

In just 25 years, participation has nearly doubled. In the past 35 years, participation has nearly quadrupled.

Sport preference among young people is also important to watch, as interest in soccer has risen significantly in younger demos.
- An ESPN poll in 2012 showed that professional soccer trailed only the NFL in the 12-24 demographic as their "favorite sport" (NFL 24.1%, soccer 13.7%). If you group pro and college together, the data puts football at 33%, basketball at 17.9%, soccer at 13.7%, baseball at 8.1%, and hockey at 4.3%.
- An ESPN poll from earlier this year has shown that MLS has risen in popularity to match MLB among 12-17 year olds (both showing 18% of that demographic as "avid" fans). For reference, the NFL was at 28.8% while the NHL was at 8.9%.

It is certainly correct that the participation increased dramatically between 1974 and 2000, however, the premise was that the sport is taking off and this is evidenced by the recent increase in participation. I'm not sure whether the data from 40-15 years ago or from 15 years ago to present is more correlated, but it does not seem accurate, based on anything other than anecdotal evidence, that there is some huge youth growth going on currently.

 

[MikeR0102]

Looking back at an earlier post of mine....

The combined MLS/US Soccer media deal runs through 2022 for $90M/yr.
The Premier League deal runs through 2022 for $177M/yr
The UEFA Champions league deal runs through 2018 for $83M/yr.
The NHL deal runs through 2021 for $200M/yr

Even assuming MLS is 80% of the combined deal, that's $72M/yr. Now, it's a huge step up from the last combined deal, which was just $27M/yr. They've come a long way, and still have a long way to go. MLS would need to triple its media deal to compare with the NHL, while the NHL deal remained static.

MLS sure as heck isn't 80% of the combined deal with US Soccer. Just compare the ratings of National team qualifying games with those of MLS games.

 

[RUChoppin]

It is certainly correct that the participation increased dramatically between 1974 and 2000, however, the premise was that the sport is taking off and this is evidenced by the recent increase in participation. I'm not sure whether the data from 40-15 years ago or from 15 years ago to present is more correlated, but it does not seem accurate, based on anything other than anecdotal evidence, that there is some huge youth growth going on currently.

There was huge growth of registration within that one organization from 1985 through 2000 (as has been noted, that's not an all inclusive number... that is, kids playing pickup basketball don't register with the US Youth association for basketball). Those who would have been involved from that point on are younger than 20 right now (born 1995 or later) - and that correlates to the polling that shows a heightened interest in the sport among those in that age demographic, and also correlates to the previously unseen size of media deals for soccer content.

The English Premier League got its first US media deal in 2013, a 3 year deal worth $250M. Based on the success of that contract, NBC just renewed that for a 6 year deal worth $1B. MLS was getting $8M/yr from 2007-2011, then $27M from 2012-14, and now $90M from 2015-22 (with USA Soccer added to the deal).

If you go back to 1975, there was next to no interest in the sport in the US whatsoever.

Fast forward to 1985, and interest had increased dramatically at the youth level.

Fast forward to 1995, and we had just hosted a World Cup, were launching the MLS a year later with 10 teams, the women's team had won a World Cup in 1991, and therm term "soccer mom" had entered the national vocabulary.

Fast forward to 2005, and the US had reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup three years earlier (best finish since 1930), and the women had won their second World Cup in 1999.

Fast forward to 2015, and MLS has expanded to 20 teams with plans to expand to 24 by 2018, media deals are rapidly increasing in value (with Euro leagues begining to sign large media rights deals in the US), and the women had won their third World Cup in 2015.

There's been a pretty steady increase in interest over the last 30 years, and I expect the trend to continue in the near term (especially with the high levels of interest in the 12-24 year old demographic, who are rapidly becoming the key 18-34 year old demographic that advertisers love to target).

 

[RUChoppin]

MLS sure as heck isn't 80% of the combined deal with US Soccer. Just compare the ratings of National team qualifying games with those of MLS games.

I was being generous.

 

[Jumba72]

Besides the faux butchery, and some quirky rules, another thing needs to change before this sport really takes off here. There's never been a US player recognized as elite. Once we put out a Messi, Ronaldo, or Neymar we are all in.

 

[MulletCork]

US Soccer is good right?

Soccer is exploding here.

Feel the excitement

 

[miketd1]

US Soccer is good right?

Soccer is exploding here.

Feel the excitement

You're a skeptic.

You watched.

I'm sure you're not the only one.

 

[MulletCork]

You're a skeptic.

You watched.

I'm sure you're not the only one.

Oh I'm not a skeptic. I'm a 100% hater and love to see this program crash and burn.
Over and over and over again.

But wait. They will medal in the Olympics right?

 

[miketd1]

Lol, okay that's fine.

Not gonna try to change your mind.

Can't believe you hate it so much that you'll spend 90 min watching. That's some deep psychological stuff right there.