Just for the sake of argument -
1 - this would suggest that the only hire that can be expected to be successful is someone with head coaching experience - so no school should hire someone who hasn't been one.
2 - I agree 100%, as this is an issue in many hires, including head coaches that are hired into a different area - or type school, I'll add. That said, it is not a given that someone cannot have success on both coasts; while minor, I'll mention Joanne Boyle.
3 - This is nowhere near as cut and dried as you make it out to be. While some were spectacular failures, others had moderate or better success. More-so than college head coaches, I believe many of her former players, at least, have gone on to high school coaching. But the influences on a coach are not limited to their playing coach (Jackson, for example) or the coach they worked for, like Mitchell. Mitchell always indicated she was influenced by Brian Agler, who did coach her as a player, and she also coached at 2 other schools before Rutgers.
I do see that anyone who assumed Carlene would be a great success had absolutely nothing to base it on - but I don't see why anyone should have assumed she would be unsuccessful, either. Because she was a first time head coach in a new area, there were question marks, but not to the degree that they should have expected failure.