ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Overnight euro showing snow for this Friday evening

Tango Two

Moderator
Moderator
Aug 21, 2001
51,352
34,592
113
North Brunswick, New Jersey
467266425_978071394356804_3139700757838683186_n.jpg
 
"INTERIOR NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM
📈
?
Fast-forming Miller-B storm Thursday night should have plenty of cold air advection by Friday morning to convert some moisture to heavy wet snow for the Pocono's/Adirondacks/Catskill mountain areas. The snow levels will be mostly confined north of I-80 for elevations over 800' but wouldn't be shocked at some snow showers getting close to #NYC ! Below is the EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES model blend showing potential for 4-6" (isolated more) in some spots


467596101_978366157660661_663845191611989315_n.jpg
 
NWS and most other sources, including Lee Goldberg, not biting on much snow outside of the Poconos, NWNJ and the Catskills/Hudson Valley, as accumulations are very likely to be elevation dependent. Sure, NW parts of CNJ could see some flakes and maybe even a coating, but those models are likely way overdone. We'll see, of course.
 
NWS and most other sources, including Lee Goldberg, not biting on much snow outside of the Poconos, NWNJ and the Catskills/Hudson Valley, as accumulations are very likely to be elevation dependent. Sure, NW parts of CNJ could see some flakes and maybe even a coating, but those models are likely way overdone. We'll see, of course.
The last 2 years I was skiing at Hunter before Thanksgiving. No snow the whole ride up until you got to the other side of the mountain pass. Winter wonderland on the other side. I hope it happens again.
 
I hoping for snow.

I've fenced in a portion of my yard w/6 foot fencing which should be enough to keep the dog from escaping, fingers crossed. It's been great fun watching him have the zoomies in the piles of leaves there now. But it would be even greater fun to see him go nuts in the snow.

So... how many feet can we expect in central NJ?
 
I hoping for snow.

I've fenced in a portion of my yard w/6 foot fencing which should be enough to keep the dog from escaping, fingers crossed. It's been great fun watching him have the zoomies in the piles of leaves there now. But it would be even greater fun to see him go nuts in the snow.

So... how many feet can we expect in central NJ?
Dog dolphining is my favorite.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mildone
We usually have oxygen tanks up there in that rarified air.
That means ya need to take extra care when passing the dutchie from the left hand side, what with how oxygen tanks and open flame are not known for being a match made in heaven.
 
NWS and most other sources, including Lee Goldberg, not biting on much snow outside of the Poconos, NWNJ and the Catskills/Hudson Valley, as accumulations are very likely to be elevation dependent. Sure, NW parts of CNJ could see some flakes and maybe even a coating, but those models are likely way overdone. We'll see, of course.
Below is what the NWS-Philly had to say around 3 pm today, showing how the NWS is only calling for snow over 1" for the Poconos and maybe NW Sussex (NWS-NYC is saying similar for the Catskills). The first few paragraphs are for anyone interested in the significant rainfall expected, while the part I bolded is about the potential snow. It's not impossible to get significant snow down to the coastal plain in our area in November, but it's pretty rare to get more than an inch or so. 11/15/2018 being a major exception that was underpredicted until the morning of the event, but I was quite bullish on that storm before then because the synoptic setup (a cranking coastal low, which is more likely to draw cold air into our area) was much different from this Thursday's event (an upper level low well NW of us and a secondary low moving just to our north; no coastal low at all). Doesn't mean it's impossible to get some accumulating snow down to the 95 corridor, but that's not the way to bet with this one, IMO (and certainly not the 4-7" we saw in 2018).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
305 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A significant upper-level trough will close off as it settles into
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through Thursday. This will
drive an initial surface low into the Great Lakes region, however as
it occludes a new low develops along the triple point and becomes
the primary low. This new low then strengthens as it becomes
captured under the closed low and therefore may make a loop just
north of our area Thursday into Friday.

As the strong closed low starts to arrive Wednesday night, potent
energy should allow for s negative tilt to take place. This closed
low results in the development of a triple point surface low in the
vicinity of our area before it takes over near Long Island and
starts to strengthen into Thursday. As this all unfolds, a zone of
strong forcing for ascent will overspread our area Wednesday night
bringing in a band of rain. An initial southeasterly low-level jet
will quickly veer to southerly then west-northwest, and this will
assist in bringing in deeper moisture for a time. As a result, a
period of rain is expected some of which could be heavier at times.
Depending on where the triple point low develops, some focused
stronger forcing can occur and this will enhance the rainfall
amounts. This looks more likely the farther north one goes across
our area. Near and south/east of the triple point, some guidance
suggests some instability develops and therefore some thunder cannot
be ruled out. The overall rainfall totals look to be 0.50-1.00
inches, however an area of 1-2 inches is forecast across the
northern areas where stronger forcing is focused along with a longer
duration. In addition, amounts less than 0.50 inches are forecast
across portions of our Delmarva area as the rain will pivot across
there quicker. This rain is very much needed, however it will not
end the drought. We will take what we can get.

As the main band of rain lifts across our far northern zones it may
remain there for a while Thursday as the entire system pivots around
the potent closed low. This would prolong the rain across the far
northern areas. In addition, a gusty wind shift from east to south
to west or northwest can occur overnight Wednesday night with the
passage of the occluded front. Cooler air and a gusty breeze will
then occur Thursday in the wake of the front and surface low. The
strongest winds may occur across our southern to central zones given
stronger colder air advection setting in along with a tightening
pressure gradient and pressure rises. The new surface low looks to
meander or loop just to our north. Depending on the details of the
surface low track and the strong closed low, wraparound rain will
continue through Thursday night. This looks to become mostly focused
across our far northern and especially western zones with it more
showery farther south.
As colder air wraps in on the back side,
expect rain to change to snow across the higher elevations and
perhaps even a little mixing at lower elevations. Temperatures look
marginally cold at the surface, however elevations above 1500 feet
could pick up a decent amount of snow in Pocono region (Pocono
plateau in particular). As of now, 1-4 inches of snow is forecast
Thursday night into Friday for the Poconos, however depending on the
track of the low and the wraparound moisture, amounts could be
higher. Some of this could get more into the higher elevations of
far northwestern New Jersey. Some snow may develop a little farther
south and east, however accumulations should drop of to little or
nothing. Overall, a tricky forecast as there are several moving
parts.
 
I also shudder to think what the response would've been had I started a thread on snow in 2+ days for the 95 corridor based largely on one model run and only posted a single map with no context or corroborating support from some expert source...and then followed that up with a completely unsourced comment/map (was from Mike Masco, a met, at least). And yet, oddly, crickets. Maybe I need to stop providing any context and just start posting random snowfall maps, lol.
 
I also shudder to think what the response would've been had I started a thread on snow in 2+ days for the 95 corridor based largely on one model run and only posted a single map with no context or corroborating support from some expert source...and then followed that up with a completely unsourced comment/map (was from Mike Masco, a met, at least). And yet, oddly, crickets. Maybe I need to stop providing any context and just start posting random snowfall maps, lol.
You should know that you’re not a protected class around here. Others obviously are.
 
It's looking like 1-2" of much needed precipitation for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region from late Weds night through early Friday (with the heaviest rain from about 2-10 am on Thursday), with a bit less south of Philly to Toms River and a bit more north of I-80. This will certainly put an end to the wildfires we've been seeing in the region, but it's nowhere near enough to end the ongoing drought (we're 8-14" below normal for the past few months) - but it will certainly help.

Just about all of this should be rain along and SE of 95, but we're likely to see the first accumulating snow of the season for the Poconos, far NW Sussex and the Catskills as the rain turns to snow Thursday night, especially in the higher elevations above 1000' (could be several inches in these locations with some models showing even more than that) and we might even see an inch or so from about Allentown to Dover to Armonk and even some mood flakes (and perhaps even a coating) down to the 95 corridor.

While the models are in decent agreement on the amount of precip expected, they are literally all over the place with the amount of snowfall (some show a foot or more for NWNJ, for example, and some show nada, with only a few showing any minor accumulations down to the 95 corridor). This is because the storm will be quite dynamic, drawing in cold air for the 2nd half of the storm, but predicting thermal profiles throughout the atmospheric column 48 hours in advance, where a 1F difference can make a huge difference in snowfall, is nearly impossible.

In addition, fwiw, the NWS, AccuWeather, Lee Goldberg on Ch 7 and most other pros are only calling for more than 1" of snow for the Poconos, NW Sussex/Warren, the Catskills and the NW Hudson Valley. So let's wait before we start predicting accumulating snow anywhere but well NW of 95. In situations like this, taking a model blend average for total precip and snowfall is a good way to go, as this smooths out the outliers a bit - the NBM (National Blend of Models) graphics for precip and snowfall through Friday pm are below.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

tZM68ag.png


QP68Fvd.png
 
I also shudder to think what the response would've been had I started a thread on snow in 2+ days for the 95 corridor based largely on one model run and only posted a single map with no context or corroborating support from some expert source...and then followed that up with a completely unsourced comment/map (was from Mike Masco, a met, at least). And yet, oddly, crickets. Maybe I need to stop providing any context and just start posting random snowfall maps, lol.
wow

just wow.. you should read this as if someone else wrote it.

it reads like your feelings are hurt that you did not start the thread.

Lets see.. he posted 5 days out.. that's fair.. right? It wasn't 7 or 10 days.

Even if he posted one line.. "possibility of snow Friday".. that could be useful to someone who doesn't encounter weather reports often and might be surprised by snow Friday.

This response just comes off as weakness... pettiness.

be better.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac
It's looking like 1-2" of much needed precipitation for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region from late Weds night through early Friday (with the heaviest rain from about 2-10 am on Thursday), with a bit less south of Philly to Toms River and a bit more north of I-80. This will certainly put an end to the wildfires we've been seeing in the region, but it's nowhere near enough to end the ongoing drought (we're 8-14" below normal for the past few months) - but it will certainly help.

Just about all of this should be rain along and SE of 95, but we're likely to see the first accumulating snow of the season for the Poconos, far NW Sussex and the Catskills as the rain turns to snow Thursday night, especially in the higher elevations above 1000' (could be several inches in these locations with some models showing even more than that) and we might even see an inch or so from about Allentown to Dover to Armonk and even some mood flakes (and perhaps even a coating) down to the 95 corridor.

While the models are in decent agreement on the amount of precip expected, they are literally all over the place with the amount of snowfall (some show a foot or more for NWNJ, for example, and some show nada, with only a few showing any minor accumulations down to the 95 corridor). This is because the storm will be quite dynamic, drawing in cold air for the 2nd half of the storm, but predicting thermal profiles throughout the atmospheric column 48 hours in advance, where a 1F difference can make a huge difference in snowfall, is nearly impossible.

In addition, fwiw, the NWS, AccuWeather, Lee Goldberg on Ch 7 and most other pros are only calling for more than 1" of snow for the Poconos, NW Sussex/Warren, the Catskills and the NW Hudson Valley. So let's wait before we start predicting accumulating snow anywhere but well NW of 95. In situations like this, taking a model blend average for total precip and snowfall is a good way to go, as this smooths out the outliers a bit - the NBM (National Blend of Models) graphics for precip and snowfall through Friday pm are below.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

tZM68ag.png


QP68Fvd.png
Much appreciated with what you do. So I’ll say the above good.

The below bad, use the spoiler or link functions instead. Especially when it’s a nothing.

Below is what the NWS-Philly had to say around 3 pm today, showing how the NWS is only calling for snow over 1" for the Poconos and maybe NW Sussex (NWS-NYC is saying similar for the Catskills). The first few paragraphs are for anyone interested in the significant rainfall expected, while the part I bolded is about the potential snow. It's not impossible to get significant snow down to the coastal plain in our area in November, but it's pretty rare to get more than an inch or so. 11/15/2018 being a major exception that was underpredicted until the morning of the event, but I was quite bullish on that storm before then because the synoptic setup (a cranking coastal low, which is more likely to draw cold air into our area) was much different from this Thursday's event (an upper level low well NW of us and a secondary low moving just to our north; no coastal low at all). Doesn't mean it's impossible to get some accumulating snow down to the 95 corridor, but that's not the way to bet with this one, IMO (and certainly not the 4-7" we saw in 2018).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
305 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A significant upper-level trough will close off as it settles into
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions through Thursday. This will
drive an initial surface low into the Great Lakes region, however as
it occludes a new low develops along the triple point and becomes
the primary low. This new low then strengthens as it becomes
captured under the closed low and therefore may make a loop just
north of our area Thursday into Friday.

As the strong closed low starts to arrive Wednesday night, potent
energy should allow for s negative tilt to take place. This closed
low results in the development of a triple point surface low in the
vicinity of our area before it takes over near Long Island and
starts to strengthen into Thursday. As this all unfolds, a zone of
strong forcing for ascent will overspread our area Wednesday night
bringing in a band of rain. An initial southeasterly low-level jet
will quickly veer to southerly then west-northwest, and this will
assist in bringing in deeper moisture for a time. As a result, a
period of rain is expected some of which could be heavier at times.
Depending on where the triple point low develops, some focused
stronger forcing can occur and this will enhance the rainfall
amounts. This looks more likely the farther north one goes across
our area. Near and south/east of the triple point, some guidance
suggests some instability develops and therefore some thunder cannot
be ruled out. The overall rainfall totals look to be 0.50-1.00
inches, however an area of 1-2 inches is forecast across the
northern areas where stronger forcing is focused along with a longer
duration. In addition, amounts less than 0.50 inches are forecast
across portions of our Delmarva area as the rain will pivot across
there quicker. This rain is very much needed, however it will not
end the drought. We will take what we can get.

As the main band of rain lifts across our far northern zones it may
remain there for a while Thursday as the entire system pivots around
the potent closed low. This would prolong the rain across the far
northern areas. In addition, a gusty wind shift from east to south
to west or northwest can occur overnight Wednesday night with the
passage of the occluded front. Cooler air and a gusty breeze will
then occur Thursday in the wake of the front and surface low. The
strongest winds may occur across our southern to central zones given
stronger colder air advection setting in along with a tightening
pressure gradient and pressure rises. The new surface low looks to
meander or loop just to our north. Depending on the details of the
surface low track and the strong closed low, wraparound rain will
continue through Thursday night. This looks to become mostly focused
across our far northern and especially western zones with it more
showery farther south.
As colder air wraps in on the back side,
expect rain to change to snow across the higher elevations and
perhaps even a little mixing at lower elevations. Temperatures look
marginally cold at the surface, however elevations above 1500 feet
could pick up a decent amount of snow in Pocono region (Pocono
plateau in particular). As of now, 1-4 inches of snow is forecast
Thursday night into Friday for the Poconos, however depending on the
track of the low and the wraparound moisture, amounts could be
higher. Some of this could get more into the higher elevations of
far northwestern New Jersey. Some snow may develop a little farther
south and east, however accumulations should drop of to little or
nothing. Overall, a tricky forecast as there are several moving
parts.
Nothing to see here but this is what they said

Tried to just link the NWS conversation stuff. But couldn’t find a direct link in all of the blah, blah, blah.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac
wow

just wow.. you should read this as if someone else wrote it.

it reads like your feelings are hurt that you did not start the thread.

Lets see.. he posted 5 days out.. that's fair.. right? It wasn't 7 or 10 days.

Even if he posted one line.. "possibility of snow Friday".. that could be useful to someone who doesn't encounter weather reports often and might be surprised by snow Friday.

This response just comes off as weakness... pettiness.

be better.
Maybe read more closely next time. He posted 2.5 days out, which would be absolutely fine if it was a reasonable forecast of snow from a well-respected meteorologist but it wasn't. He posted just an outlier model, showing a fair amount of snow for the 95-corridor and even the coast when nobody in the field, right now, is predicting more than mood flakes and maybe a coating for the 95 corridor. That's incredibly misleading without any context. Also, by the way, the Euro model, in the 4 runs since last night's 0Z run he posted, has consistently shown much less snow for the 95 corridor and the coast. And as an aside, the models, like the Euro, showing an inch or so of snow accumulating during daylight with temps at or above 32F and without high snowfall rates, are out to lunch - that would be white rain.

It's the misleading nature of the post I object to, not who started the friggin' thread. I posted about the chance of the first snowfall for our NW locations on Monday morning in the gameday weather thread, but didn't start a thread because my rule of thumb is to only start winter weather threads when there's some decent chance of CNJ and/or the 95-corridor between Philly and NYC getting some measurable snow (and not just a coating). I might've started a thread today, just to alert the NW/inland areas in EPA/NWNJ and the Catskills/Hudson Valley and to let folks in CNJ/95 know there was a small chance of accumulating snow that far SE (there still is - can't rule it out until we're closer to the event, but it's unlikely).

And if you don't think T, bac and the rest of that crew wouldn't have excoriated me for starting a thread the way TT did, then you simply haven't paid attention for the last 10+ years.
 
Much appreciated with what you do. So I’ll say the above good.

The below bad, use the spoiler or link functions instead. Especially when it’s a nothing.


Nothing to see here but this is what they said

Tried to just link the NWS conversation stuff. But couldn’t find a direct link in all of the blah, blah, blah.
Thanks on the first part and on the 2nd part, I kind of understand what you're saying, but I did include the key point in my first sentence (that snow was unlikely to be an issue those outside of NW areas) and I understand that those long text dumps from the NWS are a bit dense, but I often include them (or smaller parts) directly because the NWS links are hot links that change every few hours, as their discussions get updated, so including just the link is largely useless - and I usually give a couple of sentence summary for the non-expert, given how dense they can be and did so here. Not sure what you mean about using the "spoiler" functions.
 
For what it's worth, the NWS is even less impressed with snowfall chances than I am. IMO, the map below, which was just put out, is a bit underdone, especially for those at higher elevations in NEPA/NWNJ/SENY, close to our area. I think the NBM map I posted above is more realistic and the more bullish models seem way overdone, even if I would love to see some significant snowfall IMBY.

AJWQrIP.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Morrischiano
I'm in the Himalayas right now You guys want snow, I can throw in a glacier or two, but I'm looking forward to the Illinois game. I have it on record to watch later in my time zone
That's pretty awesome. Where, exactly are you and at what elevation (or are you doing a climb of some sort)?
 
I'm in the Himalayas right now You guys want snow, I can throw in a glacier or two, but I'm looking forward to the Illinois game. I have it on record to watch later in my time zone
Where might that be? I did some day trekking in Nepal a few years ago and ever since have been “planning” on an Everest base camp trek. Any insight/advice? Thanks. @93RUDoc
 
Last edited:
For what it's worth, the NWS is even less impressed with snowfall chances than I am. IMO, the map below, which was just put out, is a bit underdone, especially for those at higher elevations in NEPA/NWNJ/SENY, close to our area. I think the NBM map I posted above is more realistic and the more bullish models seem way overdone, even if I would love to see some significant snowfall IMBY.

AJWQrIP.png

At ~4 am, the NWS put out a more bullish snowfall map, much more in line with the NBM map, which is what I would have expected, as per above; they also updated their rainfall map, which is also a bit more bullish. Still room for changes, especially on the snowfall side of things, as the NWS mentioned in their discussion with regard to more snow possible for the Lehigh Valley and NWNJ and even a bit of measurable snow down to the 95 corridor; see the part I bolded below in the NWS-Philly discussion.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
656 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will be located near New York City Thursday
evening, with strong and gusty northwest winds funneling cooler
air southeastward across the region. The upper low will remain
to our west in the upper Ohio Valley, and as that feature heads
east, the surface low will actually retrograde slightly, with it
becoming "captured" over our northern areas early Friday.
Strong forcing over our northern zones relatively close to the
surface low and northeast of the upper low will result in
continued precipitation through the night, with precipitation
tapering off further south and mostly dry conditions in the
Delmarva. With the cold advection at the surface and aloft, odds
favor a transition to heavy wet snow across the higher terrain,
especially above 1500 feet on the Pocono Plateau and possibly a
few higher ridges elsewhere in eastern PA and northern NJ. With
the best odds of heavy wet snow being across the Poconos, have
issued the first Winter Storm Watch of the season for Carbon and
Monroe counties, specifically for at and above 1500 feet. Lower
elevations may see far less snowfall, in fact the lowest
valleys even up there may fail to get an entire inch of
accumulation with this elevation-dependent system. As this will
be a heavy wet snow with significant wind in the 20-30 mph
range, a big potential is downed trees and power lines. Travel
Thursday night in particular is discouraged.

There are a few simulations which imply snow could reach
significantly further south across our region, even down to the
I-95 corridor and Philly metro, particularly the Canadian
models. For the moment we`ve mostly discounted that guidance as
being outliers, but will be keeping it in mind as we watch
further progress with this system. Have allowed for some mixing
across areas just north and west of the I-95 corridor Thursday
night into early Friday, but little to no accumulation is
currently expected outside the Poconos.
Either way, brisk and
cold will be the them for Thursday night, with lows in the 30s
for most, upper 20s perhaps in the higher terrain of the
Poconos.

For the bulk of Friday, the surface low will remain captured
under the upper low over our region, resulting in continued
showers. Enough insolation likely develops to allow a transition
from a rain/snow mix to just plain rain at the lower elevations,
with significantly less accumulation in the higher terrain as
well, with precipitation starting to taper off towards the end
of the day as we start to see some movement eastward and the
surface low begins to slowly fill. Regardless, a chilly, raw
day will be had by most with temps generally no higher than the
40s region-wide, with temps not straying far from freezing in
the Poconos.


t5Zy5lO.png
 
Maybe read more closely next time. He posted 2.5 days out, which would be absolutely fine if it was a reasonable forecast of snow from a well-respected meteorologist but it wasn't. ...
He posted 2:27 PM Tuesday for a Friday evening snowfall. 2.5 days out would mean a Thursday Evening snowfall. So, yeah, 5 days mentioned by me was about how you guys say no forecast more than 5 days is worth anything and it was inside 5 days.

BTW.. just because various predictions have changed since he posted that, it is still rather childish of you to attack him for posting it.

You are clearly free to add more information in a topic he created. WTF is it about the need to start weather threads? What is it that makes you react this way? I just don't get it. You are becoming the rutgersal of weather in that al routinely creates new threads for existing topics already being discussed in other threads.

It's not like the OP saw a thread on the coming first snowfall of the season and ignored it to start his own. Finding a mention of snow in teh gameday weather thread.. maybe it could be said he should have seen that.. but the thread title could have been changed to help him find it. Really, calling it out like that is just childish.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac
At ~4 am, the NWS put out a more bullish snowfall map, much more in line with the NBM map, which is what I would have expected, as per above; they also updated their rainfall map, which is also a bit more bullish. Still room for changes, especially on the snowfall side of things, as the NWS mentioned in their discussion with regard to more snow possible for the Lehigh Valley and NWNJ and even a bit of measurable snow down to the 95 corridor; see the part I bolded below in the NWS-Philly discussion.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
656 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure will be located near New York City Thursday
evening, with strong and gusty northwest winds funneling cooler
air southeastward across the region. The upper low will remain
to our west in the upper Ohio Valley, and as that feature heads
east, the surface low will actually retrograde slightly, with it
becoming "captured" over our northern areas early Friday.
Strong forcing over our northern zones relatively close to the
surface low and northeast of the upper low will result in
continued precipitation through the night, with precipitation
tapering off further south and mostly dry conditions in the
Delmarva. With the cold advection at the surface and aloft, odds
favor a transition to heavy wet snow across the higher terrain,
especially above 1500 feet on the Pocono Plateau and possibly a
few higher ridges elsewhere in eastern PA and northern NJ. With
the best odds of heavy wet snow being across the Poconos, have
issued the first Winter Storm Watch of the season for Carbon and
Monroe counties, specifically for at and above 1500 feet. Lower
elevations may see far less snowfall, in fact the lowest
valleys even up there may fail to get an entire inch of
accumulation with this elevation-dependent system. As this will
be a heavy wet snow with significant wind in the 20-30 mph
range, a big potential is downed trees and power lines. Travel
Thursday night in particular is discouraged.

There are a few simulations which imply snow could reach
significantly further south across our region, even down to the
I-95 corridor and Philly metro, particularly the Canadian
models. For the moment we`ve mostly discounted that guidance as
being outliers, but will be keeping it in mind as we watch
further progress with this system. Have allowed for some mixing
across areas just north and west of the I-95 corridor Thursday
night into early Friday, but little to no accumulation is
currently expected outside the Poconos.
Either way, brisk and
cold will be the them for Thursday night, with lows in the 30s
for most, upper 20s perhaps in the higher terrain of the
Poconos.

For the bulk of Friday, the surface low will remain captured
under the upper low over our region, resulting in continued
showers. Enough insolation likely develops to allow a transition
from a rain/snow mix to just plain rain at the lower elevations,
with significantly less accumulation in the higher terrain as
well, with precipitation starting to taper off towards the end
of the day as we start to see some movement eastward and the
surface low begins to slowly fill. Regardless, a chilly, raw
day will be had by most with temps generally no higher than the
40s region-wide, with temps not straying far from freezing in
the Poconos.


t5Zy5lO.png
What do you see for cedar grove and east hanover 7pm Friday? Both are hosting state championship football games
 
"INTERIOR NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM
📈
?
Fast-forming Miller-B storm Thursday night should have plenty of cold air advection by Friday morning to convert some moisture to heavy wet snow for the Pocono's/Adirondacks/Catskill mountain areas. The snow levels will be mostly confined north of I-80 for elevations over 800' but wouldn't be shocked at some snow showers getting close to #NYC ! Below is the EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES model blend showing potential for 4-6" (isolated more) in some spots


467596101_978366157660661_663845191611989315_n.jpg
Snow wishcasting: starting threads about possible snow in Pennsylvania and flurries in NJ.
 
He posted 2:27 PM Tuesday for a Friday evening snowfall. 2.5 days out would mean a Thursday Evening snowfall. So, yeah, 5 days mentioned by me was about how you guys say no forecast more than 5 days is worth anything and it was inside 5 days.

BTW.. just because various predictions have changed since he posted that, it is still rather childish of you to attack him for posting it.

You are clearly free to add more information in a topic he created. WTF is it about the need to start weather threads? What is it that makes you react this way? I just don't get it. You are becoming the rutgersal of weather in that al routinely creates new threads for existing topics already being discussed in other threads.

It's not like the OP saw a thread on the coming first snowfall of the season and ignored it to start his own. Finding a mention of snow in teh gameday weather thread.. maybe it could be said he should have seen that.. but the thread title could have been changed to help him find it. Really, calling it out like that is just childish.
Sometimes you make me wonder if you even read my posts. Any snow is likely late Thursday night into Friday morning, not Friday night, but that's inconsequential to my main point (but shows you don't read the posts), which is that his thread title and initial post were incredibly misleading and as I said above, I didn't care that he started the thread, I care that it's a terrible title and first post.

The only minor reason I like starting the weather threads is that it gives me the chance to change the thread titles, which is useful, especially if the forecast changes significantly. TT isn't capable of starting a thread properly, let alone updating the thread title, whereas someone like bac is and does do that. And when @nutfromSEC117 started the Howard gameday weather thread 13 days in advance, I didn't say boo other than to comment that any forecast that far out was likely crap, as it turned out to be, as the forecast was for 90+F heat and the high on gameday ended up being 79F and I did ask nut if he could update the thread title and he graciously did so a few times.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mps-78-80-degrees-mostly-cloudy.280105/page-2
 
  • Like
Reactions: phs73rc77gsm83
What do you see for cedar grove and east hanover 7pm Friday? Both are hosting state championship football games
Maybe a few rain showers, but nothing that will affect the games that much, although it'll be chilly (~40F) and breezy, so any rain is going to make it pretty raw for fans.
 
Maybe a few rain showers, but nothing that will affect the games that much, although it'll be chilly (~40F) and breezy, so any rain is going to make it pretty raw for fans.
When you say “rain showers” does that mean heavy, light, misty?
 
Thanks on the first part and on the 2nd part, I kind of understand what you're saying, but I did include the key point in my first sentence (that snow was unlikely to be an issue those outside of NW areas) and I understand that those long text dumps from the NWS are a bit dense, but I often include them (or smaller parts) directly because the NWS links are hot links that change every few hours, as their discussions get updated, so including just the link is largely useless - and I usually give a couple of sentence summary for the non-expert, given how dense they can be and did so here. Not sure what you mean about using the "spoiler" functions.
I had the trouble myself when trying to do that as well with the NWS links and info.

But the spoiler function on Rivals might take care of that. It’s very popular on tMB when there is a lot it say on something and you can take some of the linked info instead of all of it.

For most of on here, the graphs and charts provided with some context is all we need.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
When you say “rain showers” does that mean heavy, light, misty?
Light and occasional, not a constant rain - total rainfall forecast for that area Friday evening is only about 0.05", which is enough to get people wet, but certainly no deluge.
 
I had the trouble myself when trying to do that as well with the NWS links and info.

But the spoiler function on Rivals might take care of that. It’s very popular on tMB when there is a lot it say on something and you can take some of the linked info instead of all of it.

For most of on here, the graphs and charts provided with some context is all we need.
Still not familiar with the spoiler function - is there a link to it? Also, what I quoted was a non-continuous excerpt, so not sure how that would work with that function. Graphics are even worse, as most of those from weather sites are also hot links and either change when updated or disappear entirely eventually, leaving the hated red X. @DJ Spanky showed me how to host graphics on Imgur several years ago and that has made a huge difference for me, as the graphics I post now never disappear. At least not yet.
 
Still not familiar with the spoiler function - is there a link to it? Also, what I quoted was a non-continuous excerpt, so not sure how that would work with that function. Graphics are even worse, as most of those from weather sites are also hot links and either change when updated or disappear entirely eventually, leaving the hated red X. @DJ Spanky showed me how to host graphics on Imgur several years ago and that has made a huge difference for me, as the graphics I post now never disappear. At least not yet.

The Spolier function is used to cover up text you don't want initially displayed. As e5 eluded to, on other boards people will post brief excerpts from articles than include the whole text in the Spoiler. So the Spoiler functionality can be toggled on and off. Or you can use it for jokes or quizzes where you want to hide the punchline or the answer. Here's an example:

What do you call a guy with no arms or legs under a pile of leaves?

Russell

Or:

Dunlop Shuts Down Its Tire Factory In New York, Leaves 1,500 Jobless



You see, in a bid to reduce costs and address infrastructure and logistics concerns, Dunlop has decided that the time has come to close the doors of its tire factory in Buffalo, New York. The announcement came from none other than Sumitomo Rubber, Dunlop’s parent company in key markets all over the world. The Japanese tire giant explained that Dunlop has manufacturing facilities in Japan, as well as in many other parts of the world.

Those facilities will take over the tires produced in the Buffalo factory.



And there are 2 types of spoiler functionality: the above is inline, the other is below:

Yabba Dabba Do
 
The Spolier function is used to cover up text you don't want initially displayed. As e5 eluded to, on other boards people will post brief excerpts from articles than include the whole text in the Spoiler. So the Spoiler functionality can be toggled on and off. Or you can use it for jokes or quizzes where you want to hide the punchline or the answer. Here's an example:

What do you call a guy with no arms or legs under a pile of leaves?

Russell

Or:

Dunlop Shuts Down Its Tire Factory In New York, Leaves 1,500 Jobless



You see, in a bid to reduce costs and address infrastructure and logistics concerns, Dunlop has decided that the time has come to close the doors of its tire factory in Buffalo, New York. The announcement came from none other than Sumitomo Rubber, Dunlop’s parent company in key markets all over the world. The Japanese tire giant explained that Dunlop has manufacturing facilities in Japan, as well as in many other parts of the world.

Those facilities will take over the tires produced in the Buffalo factory.



And there are 2 types of spoiler functionality: the above is inline, the other is below:

Yabba Dabba Do
Interesting. I would likely only be interested in something like what this site does when quoting another post when that post is long, i.e., it only shows the first 6-7 lines of text, so one can see what the text is about, but has the "click to expand" button if one wants to see all of the text. Just hiding a huge text field in a giant box or a one-line box doesn't seem that helpful to me.

And I assume "Russel" is a play on "rustle." I like the one for "Art": What do you call a man whose arms and legs are on a wall? Pieces of Art.
 
And I assume "Russel" is a play on "rustle." I like the one for "Art": What do you call a man whose arms and legs are on a wall? Pieces of Art.

What do you call a guy with no arms and no legs under a car? Jack
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT