By my recollection this is the very first time that seismic geologists have said that a major earthquake is "imminent" and could happen "any day now".
Hayward Fault Expected to Let Go
Hayward Fault Expected to Let Go
OT: Science! Also "heads up, California"
- Thread starter RU4Real
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What a weird article. It starts by saying scientists are warning the big one is coming "any day now" and finishes by saying the small quake the other day isn't necessarily predictive of a bigger one being imminent.
Regardless, it's a matter of when out there, not if.
Regardless, it's a matter of when out there, not if.
No, it doesn't. Geologists routinely deal with expanded ranges of time that the rest of us generally don't consider, but they don't hyperbolize.
Faults, rather than being simple lines, are more accurately described as "fault complexes" and resemble trees - with the main fault as the trunk and many smaller faults appearing as branches.
Often these smaller quakes occur in the branched faults in the complex and, as such, can effect the strain on the main fault in any number of ways, either increasing it or decreasing it.
From what I've read "the any day now" is based off of past geological activity from the fault and not a prediction that it will actually happen tomorrow or next week.
From this article: http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...ault-expected-any-day-now-fremont-earthquake/
Also a couple of pretty good replies to the question on reddit, https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience...geologists_say_an_earthquake_will_happen_any/
From this article: http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/20...ault-expected-any-day-now-fremont-earthquake/
Also a couple of pretty good replies to the question on reddit, https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience...geologists_say_an_earthquake_will_happen_any/
Hyperbole is a media and message board specialty
Link
In a terrible example of fearmongering, numerous media outlets have repeated the headline that seem to say a USGS scientist, Tom Brocher, has predicted there will be a major quake in San Francisco in the next few days, as seen on the left of the above image.
Tom Brocher responded to this by saying "my comments have been misrepresented" and that the actual risk is "a 31% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger event in the next 30 years"
In other words, a one in three chance of a large quake some time in the next 30 years. Not "any day now".
The 31% number comes from a 2008 study. Reports in April 2015 showed the USGS had revised numbers downward to less the half of that. Still not fun to think about, but hardly 'any day now'.
Link
In a terrible example of fearmongering, numerous media outlets have repeated the headline that seem to say a USGS scientist, Tom Brocher, has predicted there will be a major quake in San Francisco in the next few days, as seen on the left of the above image.
Tom Brocher responded to this by saying "my comments have been misrepresented" and that the actual risk is "a 31% probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger event in the next 30 years"
In other words, a one in three chance of a large quake some time in the next 30 years. Not "any day now".
No. Im pretty sure they do. I really doubt, based on the article, that these guys mean, this will go off any time in the next few weeks.
Any day now to me means within the month. Do you really think the guy is saying between now and Labor Day there will be a relatively large earthquake on this fault. Or do you really think he means - sometime between now and 2020. Im guessing is closer to the later.
Edit: I should have read the rest of the thread - which clearly backs it up, in facts its even less dire than I thought they meant. Any day now, means, as it always does in geology, sometime in my lifetime.
No, you're still wrong - because as it turns out, "The phrase "any day now" was only spoken by the reporter Andria Borba."
Media these days has a real hard time objectively reporting science news. They can't keep their penchant for drama out of it. Controversey is drama and drama is entertainment and entertainment SELLS! Real journalism is becoming an endangered species.
I'll see your Future's So Bright and raise you an It's The End Of The World As We Know It.
Alrighty then, the thread about mold is starting to look more appealing....
Wait, there's not an 80s vid about mold, is there?
Without consulting the internet, anyone recall the most powerful earthquake in recorded history in the continental US?
Not surprising that the media sensationalized the geologist's comments. In general, science literacy is really low in the media and the general public, which is why so many people believe in ghosts, superstitions and completely untested/unproven herbal remedies (and think vaccines are dangerous).
Not surprising that the media sensationalized the geologist's comments. In general, science literacy is really low in the media and the general public, which is why so many people believe in ghosts, superstitions and completely untested/unproven herbal remedies (and think vaccines are dangerous).
My guess is that it would be the New Madrid quake, which was... 1830s? 1850? It was prior to the invention of seismic measuring equipment but the general consensus is that it was 8+.
Sorry, gotta go with REM on this one - never was a fan of King Missile. Try this one on...
Winner, winner, chicken dinner...until I looked it up, lol. I always thought it was the New Madrid earthquakes in 1811-1812 and I also though the consensus was 8.3-8.4, but not according to the USGS, which has the three at 7.7-7.8, but has one in the Cascades and three in Cali ahead of these. Oh well.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/10_largest_us.php
Yep. I just looked it up as well. I'm not familiar with the Cascades Thrust Zone quake but am skeptical of the 9+ estimate.
New Madrid made the town completely disappear and altered the course of the Mississippi River. That had to have been pretty cool.
I lived in Santa Cruz in 1985 but moved out of the area before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake 6.9 magnitude which hit the San Francisco area hard, 63 deaths. I went back to Santa Cruz after the earthquake and was sad that most of the downtown buildings, which was really old, were destroyed in the quake.
You can say what you want about herbal remedies. All I know is that regularly taking alpha lipoic acid (a) keeps ghosts away - I haven't seen so much as one ghost since I started taking it, (b) causes uncontrollable sarcasm and pun creation, and (c) makes my dangly bits tingle.
