OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

Mary Barra CEO of GM on CNBC this morning.

Increasing EV spending. 2 more battery plants. Getting their tech, both EV and hydrogen into big trucks and locomotives.

Cramer pushing the notion that their battery segment alone is worth more then what the entire company is currently valued at.

 

[RU-05]

If we get nothing, the party will continue for the next month (likely led by growth/tech).

as well as inflation plays.

 

[T2Kplus20]

as well as inflation plays.

Probably the case as well, but last month growth/tech outperformed (for the first time in a while).

 

[rutgersdave]

I just recently bought AMZN thinking it may be ready to start rolling again.

I'm all ready getting fidgety.

Did you pull profits on the way up?

Hope you kept AMZN. I tend to take 2 shares off the table every 100 points or so but If it dip buy more. I think it‘ll reaches 3,500 before earnings and after will go up 3,800 Or so.

 

[RU-05]

Hope you kept AMZN. I tend to take 2 shares off the table every 100 points or so but If it dip buy more. I think it‘ll reaches 3,500 before earnings and after will go up 3,800 Or so.

I didn't. So I missed a couple points, not really sweating it, but obviously I should have held.

 

[RU-05]

After a good 2 week run, I have been dipping for a week, so I'm selling off some low conviction names that haven't performed of late.

Was thinking of holding some cash for a little bit, but I did buy SOFI.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Hope you kept AMZN. I tend to take 2 shares off the table every 100 points or so but If it dip buy more. I think it‘ll reaches 3,500 before earnings and after will go up 3,800 Or so.

Buy and hold AMZN. You'll do better over the long run. No need to be cute.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

After a good 2 week run, I have been dipping for a week, so I'm selling off some low conviction names that haven't performed of late.

Was thinking of holding some cash for a little bit, but I did buy SOFI.

Take Sofi public via SPAC. Have Sofi offer advance access to more of your SPAC's. Chamath sure seems to have a good racket going here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cs-tap-sofi-to-give-retail-traders-ipo-access

 

[RU-05]

Jeremy Siegel expects Powell to announce tapering. Says the market will experience a taper tremble, not a taper tantrum.

 

[RU in IM]

Jeremy Siegel expects Powell to announce tapering. Says the market will experience a taper tremble, not a taper tantrum.

So far, that’s what it looks like….just a tremble. Let’s see what the trend is like. Not jumping in with much cash at this point, but did buy WHR today on weakness over the last month or so. There will be a ton of money spent on appliances, especially when the supply chain issues are fully resolved.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Jeremy Siegel expects Powell to announce tapering. Says the market will experience a taper tremble, not a taper tantrum.

Probably true. Why would the market have a prolonged freak-out for something they have been expecting for months?

 

[RU-05]

So far, that’s what it looks like….just a tremble. Let’s see what the trend is like. Not jumping in with much cash at this point, but did buy WHR today on weakness over the last month or so. There will be a ton of money spent on appliances, especially when the supply chain issues are fully resolved.

Did Powell announce tapering though? I know they are acknowledging higher then expected inflation going fwd. 3rd qtr forecast went from 2.5% to 3.4%,(or something like that) but rates appear to be staying the same and I didn't hear anything about tapering.

 

[RUDead]

Fed says raises inflation expectations:
Translation: Inflation is already here

Fed says possible two rate hikes by 2023
Translation: Rates hikes coming sooner than later, 2021 or 2022

 

[RU-05]

Fed says raises inflation expectations:
Translation: Inflation is already here

Fed says possible two rate hikes by 2023
Translation: Rates hikes coming sooner than later, 2021 or 2022

The question is not if inflation is here, that's right there in the #'s. The question is, is it transitory?

Doesn't sound like 2021 for rate hikes. More like late 2022.

 

[RUDead]

The question is not if inflation is here, that's right there in the #'s. The question is, is it transitory?

Doesn't sound like 2021 for rate hikes. More like late 2022.

When the fed is admitting it that means it is here to stay. Same thing with the rate hikes. A lot of dissenting opinion from the fed governors tells me as a group they have no idea what is going to happen.

Remember last meeting when Powell said everything was working just as they expected? Good times.

 

[RU-05]

When the fed is admitting it that means it is here to stay. Same thing with the rate hikes. A lot of dissenting opinion from the fed governors tells me as a group they have no idea what is going to happen.

Remember last meeting when Powell said everything was working just as they expected? Good times.

They've been admitting it though, they have consistently said that there is inflation, they have just said it is transitory. They've been very consistent on this.

 

[RUDead]

They've been admitting it though, they have consistently said that there is inflation, they have just said it is transitory. They've been very consistent on this.

Increasing their inflation expectations while also moving up their rate hike target dates is admitting that inflation is not transitory IMO. That market isn't moving much so investors still believe inflation is transitory. We'll see who is right.

 

[T2Kplus20]

When the fed is admitting it that means it is here to stay. Same thing with the rate hikes. A lot of dissenting opinion from the fed governors tells me as a group they have no idea what is going to happen.

Remember last meeting when Powell said everything was working just as they expected? Good times.

No way will there be rate hikes in 2021 based on today's metrics. We are going through the LONG predicted transitory inflation period due to low base rates.

Lots need to change before hikes in 2021, not with such a weak jobs market and certain demos lagging.

 

[T2Kplus20]

They've been admitting it though, they have consistently said that there is inflation, they have just said it is transitory. They've been very consistent on this.

+1
Powell and the Fed learned some good lessons from several year ago, when they got scared, raised rates way too soon and tanked the market and economy.

 

[RU-05]

Increasing their inflation expectations while also moving up their rate hike target dates is admitting that inflation is not transitory IMO. That market isn't moving much so investors still believe inflation is transitory. We'll see who is right.

Expectations are for 3.5% for 2021 then 2.1% for 2022, and 2.2% for 2023. Or something like that. The latter 2 numbers are within the desired range.

 

[RUDead]

Expectations are for 3.5% for 2021 and 2.1% for 2022, and 2.2% for 2023. Or something like that. The latter 2 numbers are within the desired range.

They will change those as we get closer to those dates.

 

[RU-05]

They will change those as we get closer to those dates.

So you don't expect the supply side to get up to speed?

 

[RUDead]

So you don't expect the supply side to get up to speed?

No, I don't think this is a supply issue. Supply problems are symptoms not the cause. The cause is the increase in money supply and higher inflation is coming and there is nothing they can do to stop it. They will keep playing games to kick it down the road but those tricks won't work much longer.

 

[RU-05]

No, I don't think this is a supply issue. Supply problems are symptoms not the cause. The cause is the increase in money supply and higher inflation is coming and there is nothing they can do to stop it. They will keep playing games to kick it down the road but those tricks won't work much longer.

Clearly supply is part of the issue. Increased liquidity is as well, but supply is 100% a part of this.

Is higher inflation coming? Higher then what we are now seeing? I doubt it. Might remain higher then what the fed expects, but it's not going to get worse. Commodities are already coming back significantly. Enhanced unemployment ends in sept. Auto makers are noting a quicker then expected recovery from the chip shortage. Airlines will increase the # of flights. The fed will eventually taper and they will eventually raise rates higher then the historically low levels. etc.

The freeze in Texas also played into the rise in chemical and plastics prices which is an isolated incident and will certainly alleviate.

 

[T2Kplus20]

They will change those as we get closer to those dates.

I've been "warned" that inflation has been coming for the past decade. See no reason to believe all this now. Fed seems to be right on target.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Get in, stay in! Demand will just keep going up and up. SOXX is the best market play for semi's.

Intel CEO sees '10 good years' of chip industry growth

"I predict there's 10 good years in front of us, because the world is becoming more digital, and everything digital needs semiconductors."

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

Get in, stay in! Demand will just keep going up and up. SOXX is the best market play for semi's.

Intel CEO sees '10 good years' of chip industry growth

"I predict there's 10 good years in front of us, because the world is becoming more digital, and everything digital needs semiconductors."

www.cnbc.com

I like the individual stock game, and I'm still keeping an eye on INTC. It's just about the cheapest player in the space, because guidance has been for decreasing earnings. But if they can turn that around, and that seems like more of a when, then an if, that multiple should jump.

I'm pretty heavy in the space though. AMD, MRVL, and MU. As well as LRCX and AMAT. The group has been down over the last couple months after a great run, but the growth is undeniably there, and for the most part the group is not that expensive.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I like the individual stock game, and I'm still keeping an eye on INTC. It's just about the cheapest player in the space, because guidance has been for decreasing earnings. But if they can turn that around, and that seems like more of a when, then an if, that multiple should jump.

I'm pretty heavy in the space though. AMD, MRVL, and MU. As well as LRCX and AMAT. The group has been down over the last couple months after a great run, but the growth is undeniably there, and for the most part the group is not that expensive.

The stock/trading game is fun, but if you want to build wealth find some funds/ETFs.....set it and forget it! :)

 

[RU-05]

The stock/trading game is fun, but if you want to build wealth find some funds/ETFs.....set it and forget it! :)

Can certainly build wealth via individual stocks as well.

The funds do let you play more hands off, but I currently enjoy getting in there and digging around. Maybe in time it becomes less fun, at which point I'll switch, but for now, I'm sticking with the individuals.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Clearly supply is part of the issue. Increased liquidity is as well, but supply is 100% a part of this.

Is higher inflation coming? Higher then what we are now seeing? I doubt it. Might remain higher then what the fed expects, but it's not going to get worse. Commodities are already coming back significantly. Enhanced unemployment ends in sept. Auto makers are noting a quicker then expected recovery from the chip shortage. Airlines will increase the # of flights. The fed will eventually taper and they will eventually raise rates higher then the historically low levels. etc.

The freeze in Texas also played into the rise in chemical and plastics prices which is an isolated incident and will certainly alleviate.

I agree with this. I'll add that productivity in the US is trending higher, which shows the US economy can growth rapidly without major inflation. I suggest not worrying too much about current inflation trends - this is a weird time for the economy with us coming off the pandemic.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

I like the individual stock game, and I'm still keeping an eye on INTC. It's just about the cheapest player in the space, because guidance has been for decreasing earnings. But if they can turn that around, and that seems like more of a when, then an if, that multiple should jump.

I'm pretty heavy in the space though. AMD, MRVL, and MU. As well as LRCX and AMAT. The group has been down over the last couple months after a great run, but the growth is undeniably there, and for the most part the group is not that expensive.

I personally like NVDA, TSM & LRCX in the semi space. Here's a link to a terrific podcast on semiconductor stocks:

Google Podcasts

With Google Podcasts, you can find and listen to the world's podcasts for free.

podcasts.google.com

 

[RU-05]

I personally like NVDA, TSM & LRCX in the semi space. Here's a link to a terrific podcast on semiconductor stocks:

Google Podcasts

With Google Podcasts, you can find and listen to the world's podcasts for free.

podcasts.google.com

I totally missed out on NVDA twice this year. First back in March when it was around $500, then a month ago when it was around $550.

Feel it's running hot right now, so I don't want to chase it. But yeah, it's pretty widely acknowledged as the top dog in this space.

 

[robjknight]

I totally missed out on NVDA twice this year. First back in March when it was around $500, then a month ago when it was around $550.

Feel it's running hot right now, so I don't want to chase it. But yeah, it's pretty widely acknowledged as the top dog in this space.

 

[robjknight]

NVDA is splitting 4 for 1.

 

[RU-05]

NVDA is splitting 4 for 1.

Which might be helping fuel it's current run.

 

[theRU]

No, I don't think this is a supply issue. Supply problems are symptoms not the cause. The cause is the increase in money supply and higher inflation is coming and there is nothing they can do to stop it. They will keep playing games to kick it down the road but those tricks won't work much longer.

Remember when everyone ran for TP and paper towels? This is basically happening in all companies that have a supply chain for product they sell. Everyone is buying spares, attempting to be prepared further stressing the supply demand equation and creating temporary bidding wars while supply is stressed. This whipsaw sooner than later in various commodities and products. My first guess will be gloves and chemicals.

 

[tom1944]

Here is one reason I do not want to buy individual stocks

ronaldo coke - Search Videos

www.bing.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Here is one reason I do not want to buy individual stocks

ronaldo coke - Search Videos

www.bing.com

The vast majority of people that trade stocks "lose" money, as in, returns are lower than the S&P 500 index (or associated index of the class). This holds true to all of those that post on this board.

Funds and ETFs build wealth. I'm happy fund trading a bit, both stocks and ETFs. However, it is a very small part of my portfolio.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Cramer on the money with the Fed. Inflations Hawks are a joke and have no credibility:

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not good jobless claims this week:

Jobless claims show surprise increase to highest level in a month

Initial jobless claims totaled 412,000 last week, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week and higher than the 360,000 estimate.

www.cnbc.com