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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Remember when everyone ran for TP and paper towels? This is basically happening in all companies that have a supply chain for product they sell. Everyone is buying spares, attempting to be prepared further stressing the supply demand equation and creating temporary bidding wars while supply is stressed. This whipsaw sooner than later in various commodities and products. My first guess will be gloves and chemicals.

The supply chain issues you mention may be transitory but I am referring to inflation in the long term not for a few months. Inflation is happening all around. Stocks, bitcoin, real estate, used cars, etc. Looking at the feds inflation numbers only tells you part of the big picture. I think it will be a rocky road, but the trend will continue at a much higher rate than the Fed expectations.
 
The vast majority of people that trade stocks "lose" money, as in, returns are lower than the S&P 500 index (or associated index of the class). This holds true to all of those that post on this board.

Funds and ETFs build wealth. I'm happy fund trading a bit, both stocks and ETFs. However, it is a very small part of my portfolio.
Since I started invested a little over a year ago I've far outpaced the S&P. Now I'm dead flat since early March so there has been some catchup but I'm still in the lead.

If in time it proves that I can't outpace the S&P I'll switch.
 
Remember when everyone ran for TP and paper towels? This is basically happening in all companies that have a supply chain for product they sell. Everyone is buying spares, attempting to be prepared further stressing the supply demand equation and creating temporary bidding wars while supply is stressed. This whipsaw sooner than later in various commodities and products. My first guess will be gloves and chemicals.
Cramer is saying China has been doing that with semi conductor chips.

I work retail and we do it. Get yourself 2 months worth instead of 2 weeks. Otherwise it's very possible we will be out after those 2 weeks and won't be able to get more.

Read a story yesterday about companies doing that with lumber, companies that make roofing trusses were stocking way up on lumber, but are now selling off their supply. Lumber had fallen from as high as $1700 a couple months to $906 this morning. Should be noted that $906 is still very high though.

I do think guys chilling on unemployment plays into the supply issues, but that is over in a couple months.

Edit: As does the continued Covid issues around the world especially in China. In the US we are in our own little bubble for awhile being we are so far ahead in terms of the administration of effective vaccines.
 
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The supply chain issues you mention may be transitory but I am referring to inflation in the long term not for a few months. Inflation is happening all around. Stocks, bitcoin, real estate, used cars, etc. Looking at the feds inflation numbers only tells you part of the big picture. I think it will be a rocky road, but the trend will continue at a much higher rate than the Fed expectations.

1)Bitcoin is way off it's highs so I'm not sure which direction that trend is heading.

2)Do you think stocks continue to inflate?
 
I brought some NFLX before the market opened. The chart told me to buy.
Followed you into NFLX. Also got back in on AMZN, though I did leave a couple % points on the table.

Bought BAC

And another board recommendation OCGN, where like the NFLX, the chart is saying good time to buy, so I did. Though I don't think the support is as strong here, but the upside is potentially much higher.
 
1)Bitcoin is way off it's highs so I'm not sure which direction that trend is heading.

2)Do you think stocks continue to inflate?

1. Bitcoin is super volatile so being off its highs isn't that surprising. My point is ctypto's in general. Massive market cap created out of nowhere. That's inflation.

2. As long as they keep printing money and the market thinks the Fed has things under control, yes it will continue to inflate. The money has to go somewhere.

I think our time frame is very different. You are looking at in months, I am looking at in years. In the short run I agree with what you are saying.
 
1. Bitcoin is super volatile so being off its highs isn't that surprising. My point is ctypto's in general. Massive market cap created out of nowhere. That's inflation.

2. As long as they keep printing money and the market thinks the Fed has things under control, yes it will continue to inflate. The money has to go somewhere.

I think our time frame is very different. You are looking at in months, I am looking at in years. In the short run I agree with what you are saying.
I'm actually thinking the inflation short term is here, but longer term it will abate.
 
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Thoughts on the short term materials trade? It's been great over the past 9 months, but not so the last month, and a big drag today.

Thinking if it get's a bounce this afternoon I sell off.
 
I'm actually thinking the inflation short term is here, but longer term it will abate.

Check this out if you are interested in a different outlook:


I never heard of him before but he makes some interesting points.
 
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Thoughts on the short term materials trade? It's been great over the past 9 months, but not so the last month, and a big drag today.

Thinking if it get's a bounce this afternoon I sell off.
URNM popped down today, but it is a volatile play. It will be back up just as quickly.
 
We are going through the LONG predicted transitory inflation period due to low base rates.
The money supply is increasing 30% year over year. Where exactly is that potential spending going to transit to?

united-states-money-supply-m0.png
 
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If anyone is interested the meme stocks.

WKHS is among the top mentions on Reddit AND it's the 2nd most heavily shorted stock in the market at 40%.

The most shorted stock in the market is PUBM at 44%.
 
If anyone is interested the meme stocks.

WKHS is among the top mentions on Reddit AND it's the 2nd most heavily shorted stock in the market at 40%.

The most shorted stock in the market is PUBM at 44%.
Is the WSB crew just targeting the stocks with the most short activity?
 
The supply chain issues you mention may be transitory but I am referring to inflation in the long term not for a few months. Inflation is happening all around. Stocks, bitcoin, real estate, used cars, etc. Looking at the feds inflation numbers only tells you part of the big picture. I think it will be a rocky road, but the trend will continue at a much higher rate than the Fed expectations.
My point is more that I wouldn't be shocked if we will see a deflationary period soon. My company built up a 1 year supply of gloves because they are critical to our business. And now that covid is "coming to an end" and this concept of sanitary theater is coming to an end that 1 year supply will now equal 3 years. Still need them, and still critical. But if this happens in all things, in all segments, you will see deflation when everyone is looking to liquidate. These shockwaves have ripple effects
 
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Cramer is saying China has been doing that with semi conductor chips.

I work retail and we do it. Get yourself 2 months worth instead of 2 weeks. Otherwise it's very possible we will be out after those 2 weeks and won't be able to get more.

Read a story yesterday about companies doing that with lumber, companies that make roofing trusses were stocking way up on lumber, but are now selling off their supply. Lumber had fallen from as high as $1700 a couple months to $906 this morning. Should be noted that $906 is still very high though.

I do think guys chilling on unemployment plays into the supply issues, but that is over in a couple months.

Edit: As does the continued Covid issues around the world especially in China. In the US we are in our own little bubble for awhile being we are so far ahead in terms of the administration of effective vaccines.
Yup you nailed it... Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down but once everyone stocks up, the correction happens.
 
If anyone is interested the meme stocks.

WKHS is among the top mentions on Reddit AND it's the 2nd most heavily shorted stock in the market at 40%.

The most shorted stock in the market is PUBM at 44%.
IIRC, wkhs lost a government contract for electric post office vehicles and tumbled, thus all of the shorts
 
IIRC, wkhs lost a government contract for electric post office vehicles and tumbled, thus all of the shorts
Yup the deal went to OSK.

But ya know, we are in the meme world so stories like that are whatever. Short interest and WSB mentions are the fundies worth noting.
 
Yup the deal went to OSK.

But ya know, we are in the meme world so stories like that are whatever. Short interest and WSB mentions are the fundies worth noting.
The point where wsb meets shady government contracts might be the end days.
 
People said the same in 2013. Pretty similar increase in the money supply.
For 20 years, China has been absorbing money supply inflation. That's why prices stayed stable on everything that fits in a container ship, namely everything but food, energy, health care, & education. Unfortunately, the previous administration critically injured the manufacturing relationship with China, and expectedly, it is playing out 18 months later with shortages and empty shelves.

But again, I'm sure it's transitory. If we all wear a mask and shelter in place for two weeks, I'm sure prices will drop.
 
For 20 years, China has been absorbing money supply inflation. That's why prices stayed stable on everything that fits in a container ship, namely everything but food, energy, health care, & education. Unfortunately, the previous administration critically injured the manufacturing relationship with China, and expectedly, it is playing out 18 months later with shortages and empty shelves.

But again, I'm sure it's transitory. If we all wear a mask and shelter in place for two weeks, I'm sure prices will drop.

I'd say China critically injured it's manufacturing relationship with the US over the last 20-25 years via theft of technology.

BTW, it's quiet on this thread this morning. Something happening?
 
I'd say China critically injured it's manufacturing relationship with the US over the last 20-25 years via theft of technology.

BTW, it's quiet on this thread this morning. Something happening?
I think the industrial and cyclical stocks have been down this week due to interest rate. Glad I mostly stick with the tech stocks.

According to Cramer, this a seasonal trend and should dip around 5% or so next week. DOW down 3.8% already. He indicate it’s a buying opportunity for some cyclicals.
 
For 20 years, China has been absorbing money supply inflation. That's why prices stayed stable on everything that fits in a container ship, namely everything but food, energy, health care, & education. Unfortunately, the previous administration critically injured the manufacturing relationship with China, and expectedly, it is playing out 18 months later with shortages and empty shelves.

But again, I'm sure it's transitory. If we all wear a mask and shelter in place for two weeks, I'm sure prices will drop.
Oooph, such a bad take. You think the admin had anything to do with the supply chain issues? My life is supply chain. This is what happens when the global economy pumps the brakes, then says just kidding and hits the gas. On top of this, every company on earth is saying let's stock up on what we can do that were not impacted.

It's TP and paper Towels playing out on a global macro level
 
I think the industrial and cyclical stocks have been down this week due to interest rate. Glad I mostly stick with the tech stocks.

According to Cramer, this a seasonal trend and should dip around 5% or so next week. DOW down 3.8% already. He indicate it’s a buying opportunity for some cyclicals.
Industrial and cyclical had been outperforming tech for months though. And really they were due for a pullback.

I think the bull case for the likes of GM and F is still very sound. Same for FCX. Same for DHI.

But is the pullback over? Maybe not. Will cyclical and industrial outperform tech in the next 6 months? Maybe.
 
Check this out if you are interested in a different outlook:


I never heard of him before but he makes some interesting points.
I didn't find it all that interesting. No where in that article does he provide a simple test. He does propose a hypothetical centered around the idea that deflation will be due to the stock and housing markets collapsing 30%. That is what will provide the deflationary pressure. Not an increase in supply of materials. Not efficiency driving technology.
 
Great day for steel, oil, nat gas, and materials companies; they had a rough week last week, but I’m sure some of you jumped in and took advantage on Friday. It’s been a great run so far this year.
 
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