Nothing wrong with that strategy for 2022. Tom Lee absolutely crushed it in 2021 as well.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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No idea. I think his business is advising hedge funds and institutions what to do. Fundstrat is a research shop.
Really good comments by Jim L to begin the clip. Couple more weeks and we are good to go. The second half of the year is going to be strong. Josh is right about the new retail traders. We are in a normal/modest correction. No big whoop. Be patient. Buy when the dips feel right. Stick to your plan, assuming you do have a plan. If you don't, you should probably do nothing.
On the Ukraine "situation," per an old Cold Warrior.... Burton Gerber, retired CIA, (case officer, Moscow station chief, head of Soviet division at Langley: "Success can come in pieces without invading Ukraine all the way to the Polish border. Once he’s formally taken over the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and sent in his so-called peacekeepers, he’s got a really good foothold to chip away at more of the country. There are sympathizers throughout Ukraine. Russia has plenty of experience as an intelligence collector recruiting people, and it’s not hard for Russia to recruit Ukrainians. Then he uses covert action and guerilla warfare to advance his agenda. How did they take over Czechoslovakia — not in ’68 but in ’48? They did it with a coup.”
Fun fact: US Army SF have been at work in Ukraine for a while now, as trainers/advisors. Cold War 2.0
Fun fact: US Army SF have been at work in Ukraine for a while now, as trainers/advisors. Cold War 2.0
I should have dumped it the second that POS Chamath bailed at $23. But I do like Noto the CEO.
This is a much better take on what may come. Putin is a pretty big Sun Tzu guy and usually tries to avoid protracted 20th century-style armed confrontations (see Crimea).
I suspect he'll slowly destabilize the country bit by bit by leveraging the existing political system until the internal balance of power either becomes neutral or tips in Russia's favor. No need to kill hundreds of thousands of people to achieve the objective. Russia has patiently waited until this moment to escalate and they know the West won't really do anything of substance without risking direct conflict with NATO or shredding the global economy.
People fail to realize we've been in Cold War 2 since the Georgian War in 2008.
Lowes confirming HD's good earnings....raises guidance too. If HD gets under 300, I think it could be an okay area to nibble.
www.cnbc.com
Lowe's raises forecast as it grabs a bigger share of home pro spending, navigates supply chain bottlenecks
Lowe's raised its forecast for the full year and surpassed Wall Street's earnings estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter.
Been rolling some short term calls on Sofi, took yesterdays opportunity to close them out. Looks like today will provide an opportunity to open then back up.
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LVMH starting to remind me of Luxotica.
www.businessinsider.com
Louis Vuitton's owner is reportedly considering buying Ralph Lauren
According to Axios, Ralph Lauren's namesake founder is considering a succession plan. He is currently executive chairman and chief creative officer.
www.businessinsider.com
Last I saw, 75% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates so far this quarter. Great results! The economy is humming along nicely.Lowes confirming HD's good earnings....raises guidance too. If HD gets under 300, I think it could be an okay area to nibble.
Lowe's raises forecast as it grabs a bigger share of home pro spending, navigates supply chain bottlenecks
Lowe's raised its forecast for the full year and surpassed Wall Street's earnings estimates for the fiscal fourth quarter.
I believe SOFI is one of the beaten down companies that will be a long-term winner. Get out of calls and perhaps buy and hold?
Tom Lee was very early on the energy trade, so while CW was all in on growth/innovation as it was getting crushed, Lee was doing quite well, because he was willing to transition.
Now I question why CW is so locked into that investing philosophy even when growth had become so obviously stretched and was due for, and then in the midst of a significant correction, but I think it's fair to say she is a true investor. Growth and innovation is what she believes in long term and she is sticking to that belief. Conversely she thinks oil is not a long term investment and she's not going to buy it, or value, on a short term trade.
Tom Lee is in a different boat entirely. Don't really see that comparison at all.
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Nice post. Tom Lee called 2021 almost perfectly (which was a tough year to predict). He called a possible correction in early 2022, with a big second half and the S&P getting up to 5100 or 5200. Makes a lot of sense to me.
As I've been saying for awhile I own too much SOFI(though as a % of my portfolio I own a lot less now then I did 6 months ago, and that's without selling any) so if a third position is called away, that's OK. I do have a fairly wide spread on the calls, all of which are short term, so outside of a major rip that sticks(as there have been multiple rips that didn't) I should be OK.
In the meantime, the calls have made a horrible position at least a solid yield earner.
Now as per SOFI's long term outlook. Rev's expected to grow at a very impressive rate, nearly tripling 2021 to 2024,, but still years off from profitability.
Ya, he absolutely nailed the correction.
He did predict a Feb rip, that has yet to happen, but I think that was more a short term rip, as his overall call is volatility first half of 2022, and then a strong 2nd half.
Joe T, and then I think it was Krinsky, the chart guy, were talking about the idea of a "time" correction, not just a "price" correction.
We are currently in a price correction, but I assume the time correction means you get stuck in that low range for a period of time.
But could we not say the time correction has been occurring since mid 2020, when the S&P's P/E was high 30's or whatever it got up to? Even as the S&P rallied over the following 18 months, without a price correction during the entirety of that time, the P/E compressed, as earnings growth outpaced the S&P price growth, to a much more reasonable low 20's.
Now with this correction we are, I believe at 19x. Still above the 17x historical average, so either a further price correction, or a further time correction may still be warranted, but I do wonder if what we have seen over the past 20ish months hasn't been what can be considered a time correction even as the S&P was going higher.
We are currently in a price correction, but I assume the time correction means you get stuck in that low range for a period of time.
But could we not say the time correction has been occurring since mid 2020, when the S&P's P/E was high 30's or whatever it got up to? Even as the S&P rallied over the following 18 months, without a price correction during the entirety of that time, the P/E compressed, as earnings growth outpaced the S&P price growth, to a much more reasonable low 20's.
Now with this correction we are, I believe at 19x. Still above the 17x historical average, so either a further price correction, or a further time correction may still be warranted, but I do wonder if what we have seen over the past 20ish months hasn't been what can be considered a time correction even as the S&P was going higher.
Mid and small caps are at 10-year low valuations. Those stocks get hit first in a correction (which they did this time) and normally start pumping first. S&P 500 valuations are very reasonable, especially factoring the big boys, which are all significantly undervalued now.
I saw that yesterday and I kind of agree with it. How quick and how strong will the bounce back be without the FED behind you. Don't fight the FED when it's easing but how about don't fight the FED when it's tightening. U vs. V and in an inflationary backdrop. I'm never like this anyway but you can't be indiscriminate in what you buy. Good companies with good earnings at reasonable valuations usually will see you through over time.
This may be a stupid question but why is oil still so critical when the entire world is trying to shift to EVs and alternative energy sources in the coming years?
Because the shift takes time, and it's yet uncertain how thorough that shift will be.
I think that's part of it.
But the lack of investment in oil over recent years has led to it not being able to meet todays demand. Thus it's on a run. Question is, how long that run lasts.
I don't think the world will decouple from fossil fuels fully any time soon. It can reduce the amount needed but it will still be used for the foreseeable future imo. Isn't Europe coming around to the notion that renewables alone aren't enough. Isn't France talking about moving big towards nuclear? Will other countries say like Japan (after Fukushima) be willing to make moves like that. Fossil fuels will be a part of the picture for awhile and over time a smaller part but not completely gone.
I held XLE all of last year and made out very well. It's not a long term hold like my other funds/etfs, but definitely shouldn't be ignored.
The Biden Administration is failing miserably. Oil prices are going higher and gasoline could be at $4-5/gal. by summer. That is like a tax on consumers and they are starting to make "Tough" decisions on balancing their spending on fuel, food and discreationary. We are at an inflection point and I can see the market going down another 10-20%. This could get really ugly, really quick. Biden has done everything possible to ruin the economy Trump handed to him. I have been in 90% cash for the last month and half. Sold almost everything 8% below ATH. keeping powder dry until this shakes out. Not going to be pretty and the financial destruction is going great. Fasten your seat belts its going to get bumpy!
I think that's a simplistic view. Drilling for oil had already slowed significantly for a while now. There is some price gauging going on now by the oil companies too. The economy was heading in this direction with all the money being poured into it by both Presidents and the Fed being so far behind the curve.
Trump supports Russia invading Ukraine and is totally against Democracy. It’s a joke when Russia is killing Ukrainians and Trump Republicans act like they care about Genocide. Instead, it’s not in US interest to get involved. It’s amazing the Trump supporters are like zombies and follow Tucker Carlson lead. You don’t care if Putin kills hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian because Trump doesn’t care.
Keep your eye on CCP so you don’t see the Russians killing Ukrainians. That is so unAmerican.
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nonsense Dave, I know it is popular in democrat circles to blame Trump for everything but none of this happened on his watch. The world is going to shit on Bidens watch and more importantly than the Ukraine is what is happening here at home. Biden let in 2.1 million illegal aliens into the United states. Can one person on this board give me a reason why this is acceptable? We have a process of immigration to enter into the U.S. and the Biden administration is blatantly breaking the law.
Back on point, The economy is weakening under biden because his administration has no clue how to manage the economy. In fact, they are doing everytinng opposite of having a strong and vibrant economy. When I saw the markets start to weaken is when I pulled out and I will remain on the sidelines for as long as necessary which may be for the duration of the Biden presidency. Bumpy ride ride ahead, fasten your seatbelts!
You are wildly out of touch with what is going on in the real economy. The stock market is forward looking it is giving us signs that it is going down and the big boys will be the last to fall. Biden stopped oil leases on federal land his first week in office. He started importing oil from of all places, russia. Regardless of how much the democrats wish our economy was all solar, its not and it will take many decades for that conversion to happen. Oil is still the basis for economy and it affects every price in the supply chain. people, especially the middle class to poor are being affected the most. This market may only be at the beginning of a long term pronounced decline. Lets go Brandon!
Trump propaganda? I am giving context in relation to why the markets are faltering. You cannot look at this market without looking at the administration in the Whitehouse.
Any politician, Democrat or Republican, praising Putin in any manner is not worthy of public office.
Analysis: Trump sides with Putin as Biden tries to stop a war
It took only 24 hours for Donald Trump to hail Russian President Vladimir Putin's dismembering of independent, democratic, sovereign Ukraine as an act of "genius."
www.cnn.com
I have to read up on the recent acquisition. Sounded like a good deal, but the market dinged SOFI for it.
If you're not making money in this market, you're likely to get dinged. Even if you are making money, there's a good chance you'll get dinged lol.
NVDA (high PE though), HD, QCOM, GOOGL, AAPL etc...any nice move they had was short lived or didn't even happen at all. You can feel it, the bias is still towards the downside regardless of how good something might look. Strong days are opportunities to get out of things which is what I did in some trades that I mentioned here when I did them. But longer term though at reasonable prices and valuations those good earnings and/or growth prospects will come through....but that's not going to be recognized in the current environment.
SBUX a name I've had in the past but not currently and has been mentioned here made a new 52 week low today. Worry over small union fire growing into a wild fire?
I just bought more SBUX this morning. I’ve been building a position for the last few days.
