Dan Nathan has become a caricature of himself. Narrowminded bear that gets angry whenever the market goes up.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Well, let’s not conclude until this cycle ends, and markets get back to fundamentals. Wasn’t long ago that the bears were getting laughed at in 2021 and then 2022 came.
And then 2023 and 1H of 2024 came to send us back to ATHs. Sadly, most bears missed out.
But cycles end eventually righ? So someone can claim it's ending for the entirity of a long and extended uptrend and then in the end, when the run eventually ends, proclaim victory.
I've been a fan of CNBC, Fast Money and even Nathan specifically, but he has been so wrong for a year and a half now that it is hard to listen to.
Bottom Line:
The market goes up 70-75% of the time. Being a permabear is mathematically moronic.
Just to throw out there, 2 microcap biotech names. 1 new and 1 old. Been doing a lot of research on possible Alzheimer's disease plays, which is the holy grail of pharma:
COYA (entering P2)
and
INMB (enrolling P2)
Check out the company IR decks and recent press releases. Both are about $100m in market cap. If P2 hits, these companies will 10x. If P3/pivotal look likely to succeed, they will be bought for $5-10B.
I have owned COYA for a while and just started buying INMB. Small positions. Very risky, but the reward could be astronomical.
COYA (entering P2)
and
INMB (enrolling P2)
Check out the company IR decks and recent press releases. Both are about $100m in market cap. If P2 hits, these companies will 10x. If P3/pivotal look likely to succeed, they will be bought for $5-10B.
I have owned COYA for a while and just started buying INMB. Small positions. Very risky, but the reward could be astronomical.
It was for positive early data on their ALS product. Long way to go with this one, but it's great to see COYA not only focusing on Alzheimer's disease.
Multiple shots on goal are the key for biotech!
AI is spyware pretending to be helpware and Apple isn't the hero of privacy people think it is/was. Apples IoT uses a low voltage Bluetooth to have an iPhone user tied to network of cars, appliances, strangers walking by etc. Users don't even know IoT is functioning. Even turned-off an iPhone is an airtag. Musk knows Apple's schtick . Alas Windows is activating keyloggers tied to AI chips. The reality stating to seep down
www.dailymail.co.uk
Apple's new products will ALL have creepy inbuilt AI
Apple Intelligence is essentially a snazzy brand name for Apple's new-found focus on AI, triggered by the huge success of the ChatGPT chatbot 18 months ago.
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100% agree that being a permabear is moronic, but I wouldn’t call Dan a permabear…..he just calls out the stocks that he believes are overpriced. As an investor, it’s nice to hear opposing views. At least he’s not a cheerleader like some analysts that call for people to buy buy buy as the market goes up, and sell sell sell when it goes down. Sometimes people should be doing the opposite. Buy low sell high on the edges does work to a certain extent.
TSLA's in a long holding pattern, yes significantly off it's highs, but still one of the best performing stocks over the last 10 years.
How right Nathan is on TSLA, imo, depends on what TSLA does over the next 3-5 years. If it's $100 in 2030 he was right. If it's $1000, he wasn't.
MS with a report out this morning anticipating Tesla will be making phone's and other devices so as to integrate AI. They are OW with a $310 price target. Which is not to say they will be right and Nathan will be wrong, if Tesla does start doing all these things, robotaxi, AI robot's, then the bullish narrative of them being more then a car company is correct, even if the stock is in an extended lull.
Dan ONLY calls out stocks he thinks is overpriced. He's been telling people to fade/short NVDA since it was at $200 pre-split. Same story with most of the other Mag 7. Can't take him seriously when he gets visibly angry when the market goes up.
Light CPI inflation report this morning. Very good news:
Quick alert from The Man:
May Core CPI released this am and it was a huge downside reading at +0.16% mom versus +0.28% consensus
May Core CPI released this am and it was a huge downside reading at +0.16% mom versus +0.28% consensus
- The driver of the downside read was several but the most important was auto insurance
- This was adding +0.06% to core last month and was zero this month (+0.0%)
- Huge difference and a major positive as this is a sign that auto insurance surge is peaking.
- We have stated previously that CPI is being held up by housing and auto insurance and now 1 of the 2 is breaking
- FOMC rate decision this afternoon
- Expectations for Fed cuts is higher now and stands at 2.0 vs 1.5 cuts earlier this week
I think you have it backwards. He is right on Tesla. However, Tesla can change their business model and prove him wrong. Tesla is selling hope right now. All the investors are hoping it’s not just a car company.
My post above got me thinking about long term stock perfomance.
TSLA crushes the likes of MSFT, AAPL and the other mega tech's on the 5 year chart(NVDA tops them all though with it's recent run) up 1000% over that stretch.
But on the 10 year, TSLA is still at 1000%, and those mega tech's are gaining ground, and fairly close to even, looks like AMZN even has a slight edge at the moment.
Side note, cause NVDA wasn't really my point, but that stock is up near 30,000% over 10 years.
TSLA crushes the likes of MSFT, AAPL and the other mega tech's on the 5 year chart(NVDA tops them all though with it's recent run) up 1000% over that stretch.
But on the 10 year, TSLA is still at 1000%, and those mega tech's are gaining ground, and fairly close to even, looks like AMZN even has a slight edge at the moment.
Side note, cause NVDA wasn't really my point, but that stock is up near 30,000% over 10 years.
I think saying he is "right on Tesla", does not take half of what he says into account.
Per Tesla, given all the data they've collected, FSD technology, battery technology, and all their other aspirations, even if we want to say that all car companies are now following that model, we can still say Tesla has changed what car companies are. Tesla right now is not much like what car companies were 10 years ago.
Now if legacy car companies continue to follow Tesla, and lean more towards technology, should they take on higher multiples? Should GM be higher then sub 6x PE?
If you go back in time and ignored Dan Nathan when he was saying TSLA is going under $100 and bought at $110. You would be still up nicely. LOL!
Also loved his short call of AAPL when it was at $125.
Google is a very strange case.
Their search capacity has been falling apart.
Returns get thinner and thinner.
News search will be all CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, Axios et al and nothing much else.
An image search will return a small sample - sometimes under a dozen.
There has been a lot of recent speculation about "Who killed Google Search?"
Who is Prabhakar Raghavan and why is he accused of killing Google Search?
A study earlier this year by German academics verified what many users of Google search had long suspected: the search engine, once the gold standard for such...
www.techspot.com
Google search is still the gorilla but even I have been using Bing and Duck Go more.
Google 90% of searches:
Search Engine Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats
This graph shows the market share of search engines worldwide based on over 5 billion monthly page views.
gs.statcounter.com
As aside, Google was started by Brin and Page with help from DARPA (DOD division).
Google Maps began with CIA mapping.
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Not extreme if you follow this analysis:
The Sohn Conference, where investors pitch their best investment idea, was hosted on April 3rd. The next day, I wrote to this group and said that I would have pitched DeFi Technologies, Inc (NEO: DEFI) (GR: R9B) (OTC: DEFTF) if I had attended Sohn this year. You can re-read my analysis here.
Here is an excerpt on why I thought DeFi Technologies was highly undervalued:
It appears the market is starting to pay attention. The stock is already up more than 16% in the ~ 6 weeks since I wrote about my pick.
But I think the company is still undervalued.
DeFi Technologies released their Q1 earnings report yesterday and the numbers were incredibly impressive. Here are the highlights:
- Record Operating Revenues and Net Income: DeFi Technologies recorded its strongest quarter ever, achieving Operating Revenues of C$13.4 million and Operating Net Income of C$5.3 million for Q1 2024.
- Strategic Advancements and Product Launches: The quarter featured the launch of multiple Exchange Traded Products ("ETPs") by subsidiary Valour Inc, and Valour Digital Securities Limited (together, "Valour") alongside strategic acquisitions such as Reflexivity Research LLC, significantly enhancing the company's product offerings and market position.
- Substantial Growth in Assets Under Management (AUM): AUM grew by 78.7% to approximately C$908 million, driven by favorable market conditions, new product launches, and strategic corporate actions that enhanced trading volumes and overall financial performance.
- 2024 Outlook: Looking ahead, DeFi Technologies projects its annualized Operating Revenues to reach approximately C$119 million (US$87.45 million) for 2024, supported by ongoing AUM growth, upcoming ETP launches, and the integration of new acquisitions, which are poised to capitalize on the favorable conditions in the digital asset sector.
Now you see why it appears to be an undervalued company.
But let’s say you don’t believe the company’s guidance. The business still reported approximately the same revenue in the first 90 days of the year that it did in all of 2023. A growth rate like that would suggest a much higher multiple for a company that has high capital efficiency.
There was one other thing buried in the earnings report that is worth paying attention to. The company said:
If I am reading this correctly, DeFi Technologies is saying that they have already booked $40 million of revenue in Q2 from a newly created business unit that didn’t previously exist. That would mean that the company has done 5x growth in revenue over their 2023 numbers in just the first 5 months of the year.
Regardless of how you cut the numbers, I still believe that DeFi Technologies is undervalued. Given this additional information in the latest earnings report, I believe DeFi Technologies has a good chance of being one of the best performers from any stock that was pitched at the Sohn Conference in April.
Well I sold it at $1.74. See if comes back and I jump back in.
I am skeptical about $75 mil in earnings on $87mil in rev's.
Would love to see their quarterly reports on a graph.
The fundamentals are now good. RoaringKitty has saved the company.
AAPL is a tightly wound coil that is taking off. I can easily see it get to ~$260.
AVGO (Broadcom) is also worthy of some consideration in terms of its performance the past 3 years. Splitting 10 for 1 and rocketing after hours
The irony is that the company made the money instead of Kitty. Sticking it to the man. Ryan Cohen thanks you.
Caseys General Stores was up 16% today on earnings.
It's 5 year, 10 year, all time charts all look fantastic. It's stock price(not total return) outperforms WMT, HD, and UNH(I know not retail butwanted to compare it to the god like chart) over 20 years.
WMT is a lagger on all 4 charts. I don't get the love for that stock.
It's 5 year, 10 year, all time charts all look fantastic. It's stock price(not total return) outperforms WMT, HD, and UNH(I know not retail butwanted to compare it to the god like chart) over 20 years.
WMT is a lagger on all 4 charts. I don't get the love for that stock.
Lots of room for it to catch up with the other Mag 7 (minus TSLA). Like with many things, AAPL may not be first with the tech, but being best with widespread consumer applications is more important.
LOVE Broadcom. They also have a nice dividend.
