OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[mildone]

Considering the total budget deficit is much larger than the Dept of Education budget each year it would be a net negative to the 99% e.g.. the non very wealthy. Dems made it clear that nobody making under 400K would get a tax increase under their plan.

That is an overly simplified view. The details of such a change would take hundreds or thousands of pages of legislation to properly describe in detail.

Nobody in this forum, right, left or whatever, is going to have the information and education and experience necessary to objectively assess all the possible outcomes of a move to defederalize education.

The question is if you think Trump or Musk will actually take the time to find people with that knowledge, who aren’t ideologically motivated but are objectively data-driven, to figure it all out and do anything useful. Which means trusting two billionaires, who’ve demonstrated only self-interest their entire lives, to suddenly start caring about anybody else but themselves.

‘Cause that is an easy question to answer. Thus I laugh at people who idolize or worship such persons.

 

[RU-05]

Yeah I agree with the last part but stuff like Super Micro, Zeta, Palantir, etc I've never heard of before.

I watch CNBC. Talking heads, but also just watching the ticker. See what's moving and then go do some research.

I got in on SMCI by seeing it on CNBC. Was already up a ton, but was still very cheap with great growth. Of course this was all before the recent accounting scandals. Did really well here.

Zeta was a stock that I saw here thanks to T2. Had solid upward momentum, looked into it, saw it was still cheap on price to rev's, so I bought in. Done very well in a 6 months or so, though not sure why it's sold off the last couple days. Thinking it's just profit taking?

Palantir is interesting because despite being obscure on the public level, is big on the AI/cybesecurity/national defense levels. The CEO has been making the rounds though, including recently on Bill Maher so their visibility is on the rise. I was in and then out here (a couple times including in 2021 when they first came public) but I think it is and has been crazy expensive, and that opinion has caused me to miss much of this move.

E-trade has a stock screener which I'll comb through from time to time.

But CNBC personalities like Josh Brown and Stephanie Link are great for recomendations. Then the likes of Tom Lee and Dan Ives who run investement funds and are uber bulls are amazing for finding home run stocks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

RIVN blowing the F up today on the VW news. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yeah I agree with the last part but stuff like Super Micro, Zeta, Palantir, etc I've never heard of before.

I use a few services for research and info. Morningstar premium which is mostly for funds and ETFs, but some good info on stocks. SeekingAlpha premium for articles, ideas, and analysis. It also has a comment section which is pretty insightful from time to time. And my big service is FS Insights/Tom Lee. I became a member in his service about 18 months ago. It's expensive, but you get a ton of content and value.

If you are interested in stocks, I would first recommend SeekingAlpha premuim. There will likely be holiday deals soon.

As for Tom Lee, track his new ETF for his Granny Shots stock list. About 35 holdings. Ticker is GRNY. You can buy this directly or review the holding and pick some stocks that pop for you.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I watch CNBC. Talking heads, but also just watching the ticker. See what's moving and then go do some research.

I got in on SMCI by seeing it on CNBC. Was already up a ton, but was still very cheap with great growth. Of course this was all before the recent accounting scandals. Did really well here.

Zeta was a stock that I saw here thanks to T2. Had solid upward momentum, looked into it, saw it was still cheap on price to rev's, so I bought in. Done very well in a 6 months or so, though not sure why it's sold off the last couple days. Thinking it's just profit taking?

Palantir is interesting because despite being obscure on the public level, is big on the AI/cybesecurity/national defense levels. The CEO has been making the rounds though, including recently on Bill Maher so their visibility is on the rise. I was in and then out here (a couple times including in 2021 when they first came public) but I think it is and has been crazy expensive, but that opinion has caused me to miss much of this move.

E-trade has a stock screener which I'll comb through from time to time.

But CNBC personalities like Josh Brown and Stephanie Link are great for recomendations. Then the likes of Tom Lee and Dan Ives who run investement funds and are uber bulls are amazing for finding home run stocks.

Yes, Drew should check out Josh Brown's YouTube channel.....The Compound! Great content and you will learn a lot about the market and stocks.

Great episode last night! LOL.

 

[RU-05]

That is an overly simplified view. The details of such a change would take hundreds or thousands of pages of legislation to properly describe in detail.

Nobody in this forum, right, left or whatever, is going to have the information and education and experience necessary to objectively assess all the possible outcomes of a move to defederalize education.

The question is if you think Trump or Musk will actually take the time to find people with that knowledge, who aren’t ideologically motivated but are objectively data-driven, to figure it all out and do anything useful. Which means trusting two billionaires, who’ve demonstrated only self-interest their entire lives, to suddenly start caring about anybody else but themselves.

‘Cause that is an easy question to answer. Thus I laugh at people who idolize or worship such persons.

I'm not a fan of either guy.

But I can't help but be intrigued at what effect Musk will have on gov't efficiency. And I put aside what he is sure to gain from this as I think, from a gov't bottom line perspective, the gains will far outweigh the ill's.

 

[RU-05]

Yes, Drew should check out Josh Brown's YouTube channel.....The Compound! Great content and you will learn a lot about the market and stocks.

Great episode last night! LOL.

View embedded media

Yup, Brown is very insightful, but also very entertaining. My #1 stock commentator.

WAYT on Tuesdays, Compound and Friends on Thursdays, and then all his spots on CNBC which can also be found on Youtube.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yup, Brown is very insightful, but also very entertaining. My #1 stock commentator.

WAYT on Tuesdays, Compound and Friends on Thursdays, and then all his spots on CNBC which can also be found on Youtube.

+1
WAYT on Tuesdays and Compound and Friends on Friday (with YouTube) are must watch.

 

[RUAldo]

RIVN blowing the F up today on the VW news. :)

Yup - and I sold for quick trade right before earnings which looked like a good move at the time - why wouldn’t Rivian announce the VW news at earnings…? Very strange it’s not like they happened overnight.

 

[RU-05]

BTC at $91.7

 

[RU-05]

Yup - and I sold for quick trade right before earnings which looked like a good move at the time - why wouldn’t Rivian announce the VW news at earnings…? Very strange it’s not like they happened overnight.

Maybe it was known on the street thus the stock didn't tank any further on the miss?

But if the last bump on VW news is any indicator this upward move may not stick.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Just an "fyi" re: "the Pentagon gets ripped off like crazy...." A vast majority of DOD contractors are "insiders" i.e. former military and agency staff who went into defense contracting following their service years. To be blunt: it's one big clusterfxck of a gravy train. Eisenhower got it....

War Dogs is a great movie about how to cash in on their ridiculous contracting system

 

[gmay8]

Yup - and I sold for quick trade right before earnings which looked like a good move at the time - why wouldn’t Rivian announce the VW news at earnings…? Very strange it’s not like they happened overnight.

I bought some more at $9.68 on 11/6. My average unit cost is 10.46. Really want to keep hanging on, but wondering if there's a future

 

[drewbagel423]

I use a few services for research and info. Morningstar premium which is mostly for funds and ETFs, but some good info on stocks. SeekingAlpha premium for articles, ideas, and analysis. It also has a comment section which is pretty insightful from time to time. And my big service is FS Insights/Tom Lee. I became a member in his service about 18 months ago. It's expensive, but you get a ton of content and value.

If you are interested in stocks, I would first recommend SeekingAlpha premuim. There will likely be holiday deals soon.

As for Tom Lee, track his new ETF for his Granny Shots stock list. About 35 holdings. Ticker is GRNY. You can buy this directly or review the holding and pick some stocks that pop for you.

Thanks for the recommendations, everyone. I'm currently in all the usual names (MAANG) but always looking for ideas for the next big Nvidia-type breakout. Made some money on PLTR and ZETA. Also want to get in on TSLA and Bitcoin/MSTR like have been suggested, but not while they're parabolic.

Do you follow any of the SA stock picks? Or just sift through the articles and research?

 

[drewbagel423]

Just an "fyi" re: "the Pentagon gets ripped off like crazy...." A vast majority of DOD contractors are "insiders" i.e. former military and agency staff who went into defense contracting following their service years. To be blunt: it's one big clusterfxck of a gravy train. Eisenhower got it....

I work in DoD and it goes well beyond that.
Suppliers automatically up-charge the primes and subs for anything marked "defense" or "aerospace" because of all the extra paperwork, inspections, and accounting that's required.
The primes submit proposals that are way lower than what they believe it will actually cost to fulfill contracts because 1) they want to underbid their competitors to win the job and 2) they don't care if they end up overrunning because just about everything is cost-plus.
And there's so much oversight and reporting required by the government of the primes that it drives the final cost way the hell up.

 

[RUAldo]

Thanks for the recommendations, everyone. I'm currently in all the usual names (MAANG) but always looking for ideas for the next big Nvidia-type breakout. Made some money on PLTR and ZETA. Also want to get in on TSLA and Bitcoin/MSTR like have been suggested, but not while they're parabolic.

Do you follow any of the SA stock picks? Or just sift through the articles and research?

Sift through articles/research

 

[RU-05]

SNOW on a bit of a run this past week(granted, many stock are) and it looks like it wants to get out of it's hole.

Thought maybe it reported some good earnings, but they come next week.

Not cheap, but not incredibly expensive either. 13x rev's at 20+% growth. And it is expected to see some very strong EPS growth in the coming years.

Still need to see if this new CEO can get some sustained momentum in the stock, but the chart does look like it wants to.

 

[T2Kplus20]

BTC at $91.7

Just the beginning.

Update: Now well above $92K. Seems determined to make it to that next big round number. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Thanks for the recommendations, everyone. I'm currently in all the usual names (MAANG) but always looking for ideas for the next big Nvidia-type breakout. Made some money on PLTR and ZETA. Also want to get in on TSLA and Bitcoin/MSTR like have been suggested, but not while they're parabolic.

Do you follow any of the SA stock picks? Or just sift through the articles and research?

I haven't used any SA stock picks directly yet. Just articles, research, and comments. They also summarize Wall Street analyst ratings, which I like to look at.

 

[T2Kplus20]

SNOW on a bit of a run this past week(granted, many stock are) and it looks like it wants to get out of it's hole.

Thought maybe it reported some good earnings, but they come next week.

Not cheap, but not incredibly expensive either. 13x rev's at 20+% growth. And it is expected to see some very strong EPS growth in the coming years.

Still need to see if this new CEO can get some sustained momentum in the stock, but the chart does look like it wants to.

Got stopped out of SNOW a while back. Still eyeing to buy back in, but you are correct. Need to see some positive signs from the new CEO first. Also, I wonder if their big competitor will IPO now with the improved political environment (Databricks). That may be the better play in the space.

 

[drewbagel423]

So we on the RKLB train now?

 

[RUinPinehurst]

I work in DoD and it goes well beyond that.
Suppliers automatically up-charge the primes and subs for anything marked "defense" or "aerospace" because of all the extra paperwork, inspections, and accounting that's required.
The primes submit proposals that are way lower than what they believe it will actually cost to fulfill contracts because 1) they want to underbid their competitors to win the job and 2) they don't care if they end up overrunning because just about everything is cost-plus.
And there's so much oversight and reporting required by the government of the primes that it drives the final cost way the hell up.

Full disclosure: I was an independent consultant in the Ft. Bragg area for a decade, acting as a liaison between DOD contractors and subs, which I recruited for "set aside" awards. Subs were all woman-owned, service-disabled vet-owned "businesses", as they were much sought after to fill mandated quotas placed on the contractors. Everybody wanted a piece of the pie. Pies were plentiful. So many got fat. Very fat. All patriots, of course.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Full disclosure: I was an independent consultant in the Ft. Bragg area for a decade, acting as a liaison between DOD contractors and subs, which I recruited for "set aside" awards. Subs were all woman-owned, service-disabled vet-owned "businesses", as they were much sought after to fill mandated quotas placed on the contractors. Everybody wanted a piece of the pie. Pies were plentiful. So many got fat. Very fat. All patriots, of course.

I love the military and want them to be fully funded and have the most advanced tech/gear. With that said, there is plenty of waste and fraud to clean up.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Fair enough in theory. There’s something like $5-6T in sidelined money out there. There’s enough to go around. Only $0.5T to get Bitcoin to 100k isn’t that far to go.

Total crypto market cap is a good one to follow. ATH is $2.6T in 2021. We are currently at $2.28T. If we are in the beginning of another crypto bull market, that number can easily get to $3-4T.

Also have to look at how the ETF’s are performing. $83B has already come into the BTC ETF’s this year. We’ve seen billion dollar inflow days lately as price has increased. The same thing happened when price increased in the spring.

View embedded media

$700B added to total crypto market cap in two weeks. $100k Bitcoin incoming. Raise your targets.

 

[RUAldo]

Zeta getting smoked again…I’m down…not necessarily concerned but what gives?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Zeta getting smoked again…I’m down…not necessarily concerned but what gives?

No idea, but my $25 stop loss was triggered. I'll check it out after work. Was there a bad analyst report?

 

[RUAldo]

Culper short Zeta, sees ‘potentially devastating’ regulatory action - TipRanks.com

Culper Research announced a short position in Zeta Global (ZETA), saying it believes the company has formed “two-way” contracts with third party consent farms where...

www.tipranks.com

 

[RU-05]

Culper short Zeta, sees ‘potentially devastating’ regulatory action - TipRanks.com

Culper Research announced a short position in Zeta Global (ZETA), saying it believes the company has formed “two-way” contracts with third party consent farms where...

www.tipranks.com

Very SMCI.

It's bounced off a bottom near $20. Looking for my exit.

 

[RUAldo]

Very SMCI.

It's bounced off a bottom near $20. Looking for my exit.

I sold half my position. Put a stop loss in place in case it craters even more. After all the analyst upgrades this smells like a hatchet-job given the timing

 

[RU-05]

I sold half my position. Put a stop loss in place in case it craters even more. After all the analyst upgrades this smells like a hatchet-job given the timing

I knew as soon as I heard you were buying that I should have sold.

But really this is all on @T2Kplus20. Dude's out there pedaling fraudulent companies.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I knew as soon as I heard you were buying that I should have sold.

But really this is all on @T2Kplus20. Dude's out there pedaling fraudulent companies.

Blame Tom Lee! He did a webinar with ZETA. :)
I'll check out the details tonight. Keep your stop losses up to date.

 

[RU-05]

Blame Tom Lee! He did a webinar with ZETA. :)
I'll check out the details tonight. Keep your stop losses up to date.

I sold. $21.60ish. About a 20% gain overall, but it was near 100% just a couple days ago.

 

[RUAldo]

I knew as soon as I heard you were buying that I should have sold.

But really this is all on @T2Kplus20. Dude's out there pedaling fraudulent companies.

ZETA broke my winning streak. WOLF and SNOW only losers this year.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

7% compounded plus a 4% dividend(not sure if these are reinvested) are a solid performer in any portfolio.

Way outpacing cost of living.

Edit: Since the start of 1995, strictly on a price appreciation basis, the S&P has outperformed CVX by a score of 1100%-550%.

But interestingly all of that out performance is since Sept 2022, as it was a dead heat for the preceding 27 years.

And if we look at the last 12 years, the S&P is up 300% to about 50% CVX. For the first 17 years CVX was leading 300% to 120%.

I'm thinking this reflects the S&P leaning more heavily towards tech, while the likes of Oil and Gas as well as industrial's are out of favor. (could be an intersting discussion as to whether CVX is due for a catchup, or is tech going to continue to run away from oil stocks).

Chevron (and other big energy stocks) tread water for about 15 years through 2022. They all took a big jump with higher gas prices in 2022/2023. Anyone want to bet on energy stocks with a ‘Drill baby drill’ administration? There will be a glut of gas - unless Trump again asks the Saudis to cut ouput.

Thanks, but I’ll take VOO any day of the week over XLE - for the long-term.

 

[RU-05]

Chevron (and other big energy stocks) tread water for about 15 years through 2022. They all took a big jump with higher gas prices in 2022/2023. Anyone want to bet on energy stocks with a ‘Drill baby drill’ administration? There will be a glut of gas - unless Trump again asks the Saudis to cut ouput.

Thanks, but I’ll take VOO any day of the week over XLE - for the long-term.

Trump may open up new lands for drilling, but companies don't need to do so.

The thought is these companies learned their lesson and will keep it tight to the vest so as to keep oil prices higher.

Not saying that's what will happen, but maybe.

 

[RU-05]

ZETA broke my winning streak. WOLF and SNOW only losers this year.

WOLF right back at those lows. See if it holds.

 

[RUAldo]

WOLF right back at those lows. See if it holds.

F WOLF…it will take a miracle for it to recover. Total train wreck. I’m out on next decent bounce unless it hits my stop loss.

I’m out of Zeta took a nice 24 hour beat down I’ll use to offset cap gains

 

[T2Kplus20]

I sold. $21.60ish. About a 20% gain overall, but it was near 100% just a couple days ago.

Okay, meetings are over. I was up about 125% a few days ago and got out around 50%'ish. I will read the short report tonight. I am always skeptical since so many short reports are garbage (just pump and dumps in reverse).

We shall see on ZETA. Obviously, the response from leadership is most important. Would be happy to buy back in if the report turns out to be a bust.

 

[ScarletNut]

I actually bought some WOLF at the close at 8.08. Looking for a point uptick and then sell for a few bucks. I know RUinPinehurst is big on the company but I'm just looking to trade it for a few bucks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

WOLF right back at those lows. See if it holds.

Glad I missed that rally, so I avoided the round trip. Still trying to figure out WOLF. The tech seems legit, but they seem to be low on cash and may need a significant raise (i.e., dilution).