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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Double beats for MSFT and GOOGL. Earning calls should be good. What's the over/under for mentions of AI? LOL!
 
Picked up some WOLF at today's close, in advance of earnings announcement tomorrow. JPM recently had a favorable assessment.
 
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Double beats for MSFT and GOOGL. Earning calls should be good. What's the over/under for mentions of AI? LOL!
Wow, MSFT crushed it:

Microsoft

Here’s how the company performed:

Earnings: $2.93 per share. That may not compare with the $2.78 per share expected by LSEG.

Revenue: $62.02 billion. That may not compare with the $61.12 billion expected by LSEG.

Microsoft’s revenue increased 17% year over year in the year, which ended on Dec. 31, according to a statement. Net income, at $21.87 billion, or $2.93 per share, increased from $16.43 billion, or $2.20 per share.

The company’s Intelligent Cloud segment produced $25.88 billion in revenue, up 20% and above the $25.29 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The grouping contains Azure cloud infrastructure, SQL Server, Windows Server, Nuance, GitHub and enterprise services.

 
Picked up some WOLF at today's close, in advance of earnings announcement tomorrow. JPM recently had a favorable assessment.
LOL! I was literally eyeing it at 3pm for a while. Not sure if to play the earnings report with options or just finally start a long position.

I've read WOLF has big exposure to EVs and autos, which is in a slump. Will this report be disappointing?
 
I've read WOLF has big exposure to EVs and autos, which is in a slump. Will this report be disappointing?
I’ve been DCA’ing WOLF - definitely miscalculated the exposure to EVs/autos. I’m sticking with it long term and will buy more if it’s gets beat up on earnings.
 
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Yep, market cap only down about $100 billion in after hours. 🤣 But as big as that sounds, it’s minor compared to the recent run-up.
Down a $100 billion, up a $100 billion, not a big deal for one of the big boys! In other news, MSFT looks flat, which is fine. Their report justified the recent rally. Consolidate for a bit and then start running again.
 
At $150'ish, does it really need to split now?
Others are saying the same thing I’ve been reading. I did read they did it as a way to reward there employees who participate in the stock purchase plan. I worked for them last time it split I believe around $90 something in 1999 I think. I’m Still holding my shares from then
 
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Others are saying the same thing I’ve been reading. I did read they did it as a way to reward there employees who participate in the stock purchase plan. I worked for them last time it split I believe around $90 something in 1999 I think. I’m Still holding my shares from then
Yes, apparently it’s all about employees and the ability to take advantage of stock plans in terms of buying and selling. I will continue to DRIP Walmart in my IRA until I’m an old man and beyond. It’s a retail behemoth that appeals to everyone (rich, poor, people of all races, etc.).
 
Others are saying the same thing I’ve been reading. I did read they did it as a way to reward there employees who participate in the stock purchase plan. I worked for them last time it split I believe around $90 something in 1999 I think. I’m Still holding my shares from then
I just saw an article that managers can earn $400k without a college degree working at Walmart. Might include the stock options and Dam inflation.
 
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Regional Bank issues have returned:

You know, I'm not sure bank "issues" even matter anymore. Last March, the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC essentially established a new policy that depositors will never lose principle again in the US. Everything is covered.

Sure, it would suck to hold debt or stock in a bank having trouble, but it is the depositors that create runs. That risk is pretty much gone now.
 
You know, I'm not sure bank "issues" even matter anymore. Last March, the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC essentially established a new policy that depositors will never lose principle again in the US. Everything is covered.

Sure, it would suck to hold debt or stock in a bank having trouble, but it is the depositors that create runs. That risk is pretty much gone now.

Maybe, but how long can they do that? Seems like its a limited strategy to me.
 
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SOFI has given up a significant portion of their upward move post earnings, but after bottoming in late 2022, the upward trend since looks solid, even if, as a $8b market cap company it can be pretty volatile.

A little pricey by bank standards, but continued rev growth in the 20% range helps support those valuations. This past qtr was it's first that was profitable, and 2024 it is expected to be it's first profitable year.
 
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You know, I'm not sure bank "issues" even matter anymore. Last March, the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC essentially established a new policy that depositors will never lose principle again in the US. Everything is covered.

Sure, it would suck to hold debt or stock in a bank having trouble, but it is the depositors that create runs. That risk is pretty much gone now.
Fed support, and some big bank swoops in and picks up the assets for a song.

Could we see MS, GS or JPM buy up NYCB at some point?
 
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Fed support, and some big bank swoops in and picks up the assets for a song.

Could we see MS, GS or JPM buy up NYCB at some point?
Anecdotally, I have a friend who has worked in regional banking for 15-20 years. He was laid off and chose to sit out for almost two years while interviewing with the big four. He’d been through too many acquisitions, reorganizations, etc so he waited it out before landing with BOA
 
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Fed support, and some big bank swoops in and picks up the assets for a song.

Could we see MS, GS or JPM buy up NYCB at some point?
They would love that! Big gets bigger. :)

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UNH,

Basing in the $475-$550 range, rejected at $550 multiple times for 2 years.

Rev growth of about 8%. EPS growth of about 10-15% in the 2 year trailing-2 year fwd time frame.

Only 1.5% div, if it were higher I'd be quicker to jump in given it's been stuck in a range, but that div has seen excellent growth over the past 5 years.

Currently 21x PE which is about average over the last 10 years. Did trade significantly cheaper post GFC but that probably isn't very representative of where it should trade.
 
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Rug pull.

Is the Fed today?

I have a little money. I should move some over from my no interest banking account.
 
I did add a little to F. Not that it's down much today, been solid of late actually, it's just a small position that I wanted to add to. Super cheap, nice div.
 
Rug pull.

Is the Fed today?

I have a little money. I should move some over from my no interest banking account.
This is a beautiful buy the dip opportunity. Powell essentially foreshadowed a May cut, which is what the market was expecting anyway. Tom Lee will be issuing a report soon. He has been saying look for a 5-7% dip in Q1 and then off to the races. Get ready to buy, buy, buy!
 
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BDX made its numbers and increased year end forecast. Because of MSFT and GOOG, I Sold most of BDX yesterday when up over 3 points and brought some after their earning announcement after the drop. Did the same for MSFT. Generally, I think stocks tend to peak before earning comes out and drop after earning especially when they are near their high.
 
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BDX made its numbers and increased year end forecast. Because of MSFT and GOOG, I Sold most of BDX yesterday when up over 3 points and brought some after their earning announcement after the drop. Did the same for MSFT. Generally, I think stocks tend to peak before earning comes out and drop after earning especially when they are near their high.
Not always but often it depends on the momentum going into earnings.

If it’s been riding high, there’s a decent chance for sell the news after the reports unless you get a big beat and more importantly very good guidance.

But then after some time, if fundamentals are good the stock can resume the trend.

Reverse can be said too. If something is way oversold and earnings aren’t as bad or some sliver of good news can be found in them, you can get a quick bounce. But there too if fundamentals overall haven’t turned positive enough then the same bad trend will likely follow.
 
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Not always but often it depends on the momentum going into earnings.

If it’s been riding high, there’s a decent chance for sell the news after the reports unless you get a big beat and more importantly very good guidance.

But then after some time, if fundamentals are good the stock can resume the trend.

Reverse can be said too. If something is way oversold and earnings aren’t as bad or some sliver of good news can be found in them, you can get a quick bounce. But there too if fundamentals overall haven’t turned positive enough then the same bad trend will likely follow.
I would think it about 65-75% drop after the news and the drop in lot a cases are significant, not worth keeping or you can buy after hours if you’re wrong. Just my experience.
 
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