OT: what’s the unemployment rate going to be?

[Morrischiano]

This Friday, the unemployment rate is going to be announced for the month of April. It’s going to be the biggest monthly increase in our history. Another 3 million filed for unemployment this week for a total of 33 million over the last 6 weeks.

Hopefully, in less populated states, the economy can start to open up. Sadly, I don't think all of those furloughed will get their jobs back. Retail, hospitality and travel industry will suffer long-term damage

What do you think the unemployment rate will be?

 

[RU4Real]

Just by doing the preliminary math, it's 20%. I'm sure the refined math will bring it down below that, somewhat.

 

[RUJohnny99]

33 million unemployed / 157 million workers on 1/1/2020
Anything less than 21% is just manipulated data.

 

[Morrischiano]

Just by doing the preliminary math, it's 20%. I'm sure the refined math will bring it down below that, somewhat.

Banking analysts' projection range from 14% (Goldman Sachs) to 19% (Barklays). I'm with you. I think that it is going to be on the high side. 18%-19%. I bet that the labor participation rate is going to take a big hit.

 

[superfan01]

Yet equities are on fire. Nasdaq 100 is up on the year.

Companies issuing record amounts of debt at low interest rate every day.

Gotta love the fed.

The income inequality gap and difference between the halves and halves not in the economy will widen massively in this crisis.

wait to the public see equities up on the year and 15% unemployment. . You know it’s coming.

 

[Morrischiano]

Yet equities are on fire. Nasdaq 100 is up on the year.

Companies issuing record amounts of debt at low interest rate every day.

Gotta love the fed.

The income inequality gap and difference between the halves and halves not in the economy will widen massively in this crisis.

I just saw that the finance industry only lost 2% and professional services (lawyers, accountants, doctors) only lost .3%

 

[superfan01]

I just saw that the finance industry only lost 2% and professional services (lawyers, accountants, doctors) only lost .3%

I’m telling you. You will see record equities and 15% unemployment. The Nasdaq is flat on the year right now and the nasdaq 100 is up over 3% on year. S&P down just 10% (was down over 30% a little over a month ago). Pain trade is equities higher. Anything the fed does is guaranteed to prop up equities but not guaranteed to put people back to work.

If anything this crisis did was further marginalize the average worker.

Wall Street trading desk had some of their best months in over a decade in April.

let the public outcry begin...

 

[RUJohnny99]

Yet equities are on fire. Nasdaq 100 is up on the year.

Because the tech companies have succeeded in eliminating the two most expensive costs of doing business: labor and real estate.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Now at about 1,018,000 with several hundred thousand still waiting for their first payments. Trenton has never had to deal with anything like this. If you look at the number of New Jerseyans who were unemployed on March 1 compared to now, it is night and day.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

My nephew interned at a major accounting firm last Summer after his junior year. He was offered a position there starting this Fall. I was concerned they might rescind the offer, but they have contacted him and said they will honor all offers.

 

[Caliknight]

Whatever it is will be cut in half if not more by the end of the 4th quarter.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Cali, I hope it is before October 1. My company went from about 70 to 10 on March 20. There may not even be ten left at this point. It is really really bad here right now.

 

[theRU]

If we continue to buy Chinese products after this we deserve to be overtaken as a world power.

That's how you put people back to work- start making stuff in this country again

 

[RUskoolie]

I give it a few weeks or months before the left starts using it as a talking point.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

If we continue to buy Chinese products after this we deserve to be overtaken as a world power.

That's how you put people back to work- start making stuff in this country again

Plus 340 million !!!

 

[superfan01]

I give it a few weeks or months before the left starts using it as a talking point.

Well the right used it as a talking point in 2009 and 2010 after Obama took over the mess GWB left after 8!years.

 

[RU4Real]

If we continue to buy Chinese products after this we deserve to be overtaken as a world power.

That's how you put people back to work- start making stuff in this country again

I'm interested in hearing about you starting your new $00.75 / hour job, and how excited you are about it.

I'm always fascinated by the "we should make stuff here instead of in China" crowd. It demonstrates such a fundamental, mind-boggling lack of understanding of economics.

Answer us this - what kind of televisions do you have in your house? Where did you get them? How much did they cost?

Got an iPhone? Some sort of Android phone? Would you have been willing to pay $5000.00 for it?

These are all important questions.

Shit's made in China because they have cheap labor. If you want to make the same shit here in the good 'ol US of A, then you'll need cheap labor. And you undoubtedly wouldn't like the solution to that problem because it involves undocumented workers, exactly like agriculture.

 

[PSU_Nut]

If we continue to buy Chinese products after this we deserve to be overtaken as a world power.

That's how you put people back to work- start making stuff in this country again

Please stop with this crap. It not going to happen. If anything it will just be shifted to the next emerging thirds world country. People can’t afford to pay what it would cost to make everything in America. Also Americans don’t want to do the work. Do you think people are going to leave their service jobs to sew shoes for $3 an hour? Just read about the furniture industry in North Carolina. They simply can’t find people willing to do the labor. They rather make less working non factory jobs.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

CE Board

 

[RUJohnny99]

I'm interested in hearing about you starting your new $00.75 / hour job, and how excited you are about it.

I'm always fascinated by the "we should make stuff here instead of in China" crowd. It demonstrates such a fundamental, mind-boggling lack of understanding of economics.

Answer us this - what kind of televisions do you have in your house? Where did you get them? How much did they cost?

Got an iPhone? Some sort of Android phone? Would you have been willing to pay $5000.00 for it?

These are all important questions.

Shit's made in China because they have cheap labor. If you want to make the same shit here in the good 'ol US of A, then you'll need cheap labor. And you undoubtedly wouldn't like the solution to that problem because it involves undocumented workers, exactly like agriculture.

That's the same excuse jewelers have been giving for selling blood diamonds mined by slave labor. If it takes buying less plastic toys from China to get the economy moving, then that's a sacrifice those of us who are still employed are going to have to make.

 

[RU4Real]

That's the same excuse jewelers have been giving for selling blood diamonds mined by slave labor. If it takes buying less plastic toys from China to get the economy moving, then that's a sacrifice those of us who are still employed are going to have to make.

But the point is that nobody is going to buy those same plastic toys at 10x the price, if they were made here.

And, as someone said before, those plastic toy makers would just shift their ops to some other low-wage country.

I've been saying for years that the way to solve the China problem and the American migration instability problem, simultaneously, is to incentivize manufacturing in central and south America - conditional on those countries having stable governments and solid human rights records.

 

[yesrutgers01]

I give it a few weeks or months before the left starts using it as a talking point.

Cripes- do you ever stop polarizing everything. Left/Right- both have their own story to tell and neither really represent the truth.

 

[MrsScrew]

at today's press conference it was announced that over 1,000,000 NJ workers have applied for unemployment, but only 715,000 have received payments so far. I think the number I read somewhere was that 20% of the NJ workforce is unemployed.

 

[theRU]

Please stop with this crap. It not going to happen. If anything it will just be shifted to the next emerging thirds world country. People can’t afford to pay what it would cost to make everything in America. Also Americans don’t want to do the work. Do you think people are going to leave their service jobs to sew shoes for $3 an hour? Just read about the furniture industry in North Carolina. They simply can’t find people willing to do the labor. They rather make less working non factory jobs.

Its not crap- things that it takes to win a war should have secure domestic sources. You can easily retool and start making shoes, underpants, etc. I'm talking about PPE ( Gloves, Gowns, Masks), manufacturing of critical type hardware... if you can't make circuit boards or displays here in the US its going to be awfully difficult to make sophisticated weapons that require to win a war against China.

You are all still treating China like a 3rd world nobody.. We would never be reliant on anything out of the USSR during the cold war.. .time to treat China the same. We will lose a war with China if we need to protect supply lines from Malaysia,India, et al. We've got to work in our own back yard as much as possible, and that means at most South America supply lines.

 

[theRU]

I'm interested in hearing about you starting your new $00.75 / hour job, and how excited you are about it.

I'm always fascinated by the "we should make stuff here instead of in China" crowd. It demonstrates such a fundamental, mind-boggling lack of understanding of economics.

Answer us this - what kind of televisions do you have in your house? Where did you get them? How much did they cost?

Got an iPhone? Some sort of Android phone? Would you have been willing to pay $5000.00 for it?

These are all important questions.

Shit's made in China because they have cheap labor. If you want to make the same shit here in the good 'ol US of A, then you'll need cheap labor. And you undoubtedly wouldn't like the solution to that problem because it involves undocumented workers, exactly like agriculture.

#1 i'd gladly pay more for things if i could avoid anything with Chinese components.
#2 I'd fully support a complete trade ban with China because i recognize that its killing us slowly
#3 Have you been to Europe? They are way less reliant on cheap chinese goods...seems to work for them.
#4 see my other post. You can't have supply lines critical to a war effort running through or near your #1 enemy. And newsflash - China is the #1 threat and its time we start treating them that way.

 

[RU4Real]

#1 i'd gladly pay more for things if i could avoid anything with Chinese components.
#2 I'd fully support a complete trade ban with China because i recognize that its killing us slowly
#3 Have you been to Europe? They are way less reliant on cheap chinese goods...seems to work for them.
#4 see my other post. You can't have supply lines critical to a war effort running through or near your #1 enemy. And newsflash - China is the #1 threat and its time we start treating them that way.

I think that you don't clearly understand the extent of what's manufactured in China. Per your #3, yes, I have. A lot. And while they don't exhibit the same consumption of Walmart chatchkis that we do, they're still massive consumers of electronics. All of which are, at the component level, manufactured in China.

 

[theRU]

I think that you don't clearly understand the extent of what's manufactured in China. Per your #3, yes, I have. A lot. And while they don't exhibit the same consumption of Walmart chatchkis that we do, they're still massive consumers of electronics. All of which are, at the component level, manufactured in China.

And we've all allowed that to happen. Time to start changing it. I'm not asking for everything to be made domestically but we need some minimal level of critical components made here.

We cannot continue business as usual with that country.

I'm also fully aware of supply chain and it's complexity. It my line of work. It'll only change if the country aligns on making a shift. It won't happen if CNN and fox continue to divide us. We would have done much better on china trade if we were unified in the trade war. It's a shame that fell along party lines when we finally had an administration ready to do something big.

 

[RU4Real]

And we've all allowed that to happen. Time to start changing it. I'm not asking for everything to be made domestically but we need some minimal level of critical components made here.

We cannot continue business as usual with that country

So your answer is to destablize their economy, which will somehow "put them in their place" and make them behave?

 

[RC1978]

AT&T just announced a few hours ago they will start having major layoffs. My daughter who is in HR in a large firm in NYC said they start doing layoffs, not furloughs starting next week.

This is not over folks

 

[RUevolution36]

So your answer is to destablize their economy, which will somehow "put them in their place" and make them behave?

not worth it to argue with simpletons.

 

[tom1944]

AT&T just announced a few hours ago they will start having major layoffs. My daughter who is in HR in a large firm in NYC said they start doing layoffs, not furloughs starting next week.

This is not over folks

It is far from over

 

[theRU]

So your answer is to destablize their economy, which will somehow "put them in their place" and make them behave?

My answer is to protect the US interests... Our long term survival is at stake.
There is no need to partner with a nation that does not protect IP. Tesla will learn this soon once NIO or some other Chinese company copies the technology.

 

[theRU]

not worth it to argue with simpletons.

Simple is he who insults others

 

[mdMoose]

I think the best that we can ask for is to have a certain percentage of essential items produced within our borders. We should also have ready-to-go preparedness plans on how to promptly multiply production capacity in times of national emergencies.

 

[Morrischiano]

Sooo anyway I’m guessing 17.5%. Your guesses?

 

[WhiteBus]

If we continue to buy Chinese products after this we deserve to be overtaken as a world power.

That's how you put people back to work- start making stuff in this country again

I sell nothing from Asia at all. US, Mexico, Belgium, Holland, Italy, France and Potugal. :Beers:

 

[RU4Real]

My answer is to protect the US interests... Our long term survival is at stake.
There is no need to partner with a nation that does not protect IP. Tesla will learn this soon once NIO or some other Chinese company copies the technology.

You didn't answer my question.

 

[theRU]

You didn't answer my question.

What more do you want answered?You seem to to worry more about destabilizing the Chinese economy than the long term health of this nation and it's people. I prefer short term pain to gain long term prosperity. I prefer to do something now than go on for 50 years and eventually China will park one in our rear. We are choosing to value short term profits over long term prosperity, China meanwhile has been doing the opposite.

Day of reckoning is coming... You don't play a long game for no reason.

 

[RUevolution36]

Let's distill this into some bullet points and logic...

- People want to buy stuff cheap

- to sell for cheap, a company needs to make for cheap

- US labor is not cheap

- if you want to make in the US, prices go up

- Avg American families can't afford to pay that much more unless...

* you raise the lower bound for wages, which means raising wages for the poor and middle classes. Higher wages also means higher COGS, so where's the balance?

* the US recalibrates its materialistic mindset and get people to pay more for goods, but buy less goods. Would also need to change the mindset of companies to not fuel the race to the bottom in pricing goods in order to gain market share
​

- companies have to be willing to completely disrupt their supply chains and sink trillions into standing up new manufacturing sites

* this puts a huge dent in net profits, and subsequent dividend or stock buyback opportunities, which may anger investors

* the level of investment needed to do this would mean mountains of new corporate debt, which is also troublesome​

All of this also doesn't take into account the geopolitical implications of trying to fundamentally change the way the largest economy in the world works.

 

[Knight Shift]

My answer is to protect the US interests... Our long term survival is at stake.
There is no need to partner with a nation that does not protect IP. Tesla will learn this soon once NIO or some other Chinese company copies the technology.

Bob Dylan wrote a song about this over 35 years ago (around 1983) called Union Sundown. What a visionary to conjure up Amazon in the lyrics:Sly::

Union Sundown
Well, my shoes, they come from Singapore
My flashlight's from Taiwan
My tablecloth's from Malaysia
My belt buckle's from the Amazon
You know, this shirt I wear comes from the Philippines
And the car I drive is a Chevrolet
It was put together down in Argentina
By a guy making thirty cents a day
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the USA
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way
Well, this silk dress is from Hong Kong
And the pearls are from Japan
Well, the dog collar's from India
And the flower pot's from Pakistan
All the furniture it said 'Made in Brazil'
Where a woman, she slaved for sure
Bringing home thirty cents a day to a family of twelve
You know, that's a lot of money to her
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the USA
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way
Well, you know lots of people are complaining that there is no work
I say, "Why you say that for
When nothing you got is US made?"
They don't make nothing here no more
You know, capitalism is above the law
I say, "It don't count 'less it sells"
When it costs too much to build it at home
You just build it cheaper someplace else
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the USA
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way
Well, the job that you used to have
They gave it to somebody down in El Salvador
The unions are big business, friend
And they're going out like a dinosaur
But they used to grow food in Kansas
Now they grow it on the moon and eat it raw
I can see the day coming when even your home garden
Is gonna be against the law
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the USA
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way
Democracy don't rule the world
You better get that in your head
This world is ruled by violence
But I guess that's better left unsaid
From Broadway to the Milky Way
That's a lot of territory indeed
And a man's gonna do what he has to do
When he's got a hungry mouth to feed
Well, it' sundown on the union
And what's made in the USA
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way