ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

Strangely enough, every house that goes on the market in Metuchen immediately has 100+ people looking to buy, with lines around the corner (have 2 friends who are realtors and one can see the lines on a weekend around open houses). It's nuts and I don't quite know why it's like that given things seem to be cooling off elsewhere.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NotInRHouse
Strangely enough, every house that goes on the market in Metuchen immediately has 100+ people looking to buy, with lines around the corner (have 2 friends who are realtors and one can see the lines on a weekend around open houses). It's nuts and I don't quite know why it's like that given things seem to be cooling off elsewhere.
Strong jobs and payroll will do that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
Strangely enough, every house that goes on the market in Metuchen immediately has 100+ people looking to buy, with lines around the corner (have 2 friends who are realtors and one can see the lines on a weekend around open houses). It's nuts and I don't quite know why it's like that given things seem to be cooling off elsewhere.
Co-worker moved from Metuchen to Westfield. We work local in Metropark. But when we were taking the Acela back from DC this week, he pointed out the new parking deck and downtown development, stating that it would have been nice to have that stuff there when he sold several years ago. Metuchen went from a "A" town to an A++ town with those additions. It was already great.
 
Co-worker moved from Metuchen to Westfield. We work local in Metropark. But when we were taking the Acela back from DC this week, he pointed out the new parking deck and downtown development, stating that it would have been nice to have that stuff there when he sold several years ago. Metuchen went from a "A" town to an A++ town with those additions. It was already great.
Also, vacancies have gone from 22% to 4% over the last several years as the downtown has really bounced back well from the last recession, which is part of why Metuchen was one of 3 winners of the "Best Main Streets in America" award last month, although the award isn't why the real estate market is so hot, as that's been going on for many months. Lots of great new businesses/restaurants and the downtown has become more lively with the influx of people living downtown in luxury apartments and townhomes.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nj-town-now-has-one-of-the-best-main-streets-in-america-after-incredible-turnaround/4194515/#:~:text=It's%20a%20big%20honor%20for,downtown%20area%20on%20the%20ropes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
I don’t disagree but at some point the WFH sham will have negative implications on companies and the economy. About the only thing I agree on with Musk is that WFH is a joke. I’m not saying work doesn’t get done at home. But productivity is WAY lower in WFH environments. Many Companies are quietly implementing productivity software/solutions = and results are telling. Plus, how do certain professions develop talent in WFH? Lawyers, bankers, accountants, etc. - the real training occurs when learning from bosses and mentors, side by side. I have to believe there will be a shift back to the office at some point, even if just M-Th and corporate culture adopts 4 day work week as compromise.
As someone who works from home all but 1 day a month I totally agree. I’m at the tail end of my career so it works for me but everything I know about my job was learned by being in the office and having those conversations with co workers throughout the day.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
Also, vacancies have gone from 22% to 4% over the last several years as the downtown has really bounced back well from the last recession, which is part of why Metuchen was one of 3 winners of the "Best Main Streets in America" award last month, although the award isn't why the real estate market is so hot, as that's been going on for many months. Lots of great new businesses/restaurants and the downtown has become more lively with the influx of people living downtown in luxury apartments and townhomes.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nj-town-now-has-one-of-the-best-main-streets-in-america-after-incredible-turnaround/4194515/#:~:text=It's%20a%20big%20honor%20for,downtown%20area%20on%20the%20ropes.
And it is a winter wonderland.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fsg2
Co-worker moved from Metuchen to Westfield. We work local in Metropark. But when we were taking the Acela back from DC this week, he pointed out the new parking deck and downtown development, stating that it would have been nice to have that stuff there when he sold several years ago. Metuchen went from a "A" town to an A++ town with those additions. It was already great.
I was driving through Metuchen today. The traffic is a disaster. Even though it’s a very walkable town, it seems everyone drives. The roads aren’t designed to handle the extra traffic from all of the new construction.
 
I was driving through Metuchen today. The traffic is a disaster. Even though it’s a very walkable town, it seems everyone drives. The roads aren’t designed to handle the extra traffic from all of the new construction.
Have noticed that too. There's a house with a Rutgers flag, a wide lawn and still has snow in the front yard, you can use that front yard as a bypass. You get a free weather report too when you drive through.
 
Strangely enough, every house that goes on the market in Metuchen immediately has 100+ people looking to buy, with lines around the corner (have 2 friends who are realtors and one can see the lines on a weekend around open houses). It's nuts and I don't quite know why it's like that given things seem to be cooling off elsewhere.

Listen this just one of those depressed economies you always hear about in economics class where million dollar homes are flooded with offers, airports are filled with travelers, and unemployment is at 3.5%, the lowest since 1969.
 
I’ll wait and see when they adjust the billable hour rates by location.

If you don't work at a firm you don't bill. But even for firms, you still need to be licensed in a state. So will be interesting to put out, say, a flyover salary rubric but ask for a NJ license.
 
If you don't work at a firm you don't bill. But even for firms, you still need to be licensed in a state. So will be interesting to put out, say, a flyover salary rubric but ask for a NJ license.
My big firm attorneys (Partners) bill at 2k per hour because they bill NYC rates. My 2nd tier (but still Partners) bill 800 per hour because they can bill out of Jersey rates.
 
My big firm attorneys (Partners) bill at 2k per hour because they bill NYC rates. My 2nd tier (but still Partners) bill 800 per hour because they can bill out of Jersey rates.
We are lower than both rates. Those are insane unless for a specialty. Our field has some high hourly rates.
 
My big firm attorneys (Partners) bill at 2k per hour because they bill NYC rates. My 2nd tier (but still Partners) bill 800 per hour because they can bill out of Jersey rates.

Right, but does it adjust if the NYC partner is working out of his house in Montclair or the NJ partner is on the beach in Costa Rica?
 
We are lower than both rates. Those are insane unless for a specialty. Our field has some high hourly rates.

For major financial transactions, it's not totally out of line but on the higher side. Could also see it for a niche in the cyber or media realm or class action expert.
 
Right, but does it adjust if the NYC partner is working out of his house in Montclair or the NJ partner is on the beach in Costa Rica?
The justification was you pay for the overhead (NYC rent). If they are working from home, the delta between the two partners should be closer.
 
I was driving through Metuchen today. The traffic is a disaster. Even though it’s a very walkable town, it seems everyone drives. The roads aren’t designed to handle the extra traffic from all of the new construction.
Traffic is definitely an issue around rush hour and after before/after school, but it's not so bad at other times and IMO it's only marginally worse than it was when we moved in 30 years ago. I don't think much can be done about it, given the streets are limited, population has grown a bit (not that much, really) and there is so much to do downtown. I'd much rather have a lively, crowded downtown than the opposite.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NotInRHouse
The justification was you pay for the overhead (NYC rent). If they are working from home, the delta between the two partners should be closer.

Rent for the office, or rent for an apartment?

A large percentage of NYC workers didn't live there before COVID...those numbers are now way up.

I think that's an outdated justification even when you consider how many law partners are likely to be living in NJ/CT/LI/Westchester, often in places that may outprice NYC.
 
Rent for the office, or rent for an apartment?

A large percentage of NYC workers didn't live there before COVID...those numbers are now way up.

I think that's an outdated justification even when you consider how many law partners are likely to be living in NJ/CT/LI/Westchester, often in places that may outprice NYC.
Office. It’s the same concept why a grill cheese cost 60% more in NYC.
 
Aside from the interest rate mind-F for anyone that refinanced in last few years but may be looking to upgrade, it also doesn’t help when you see these homes hit the market that sellers bought in last couple of years and are now trying to almost double their money. Crazy to see a crap like a $750K home bought in 2020 with no updates now going for $1.2M. Seems like more of the houses coming on lately are people that bought in last few years now trying to capitalize.
 
Commercial (office) sector of the real estate market is about to "go thru some things". I think the linked article below is behind a paywall, but everyone from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs to UBS is sounding alarm bells.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.2T of CRE loans are coming due before YE 2024. These office buildings (office building portfolios) are staring at refinancing costs greatly in excess of their current rate and landlords who own these buildings have 30+% vacancy rates due to WFH and other factors. That is a bad combo.

I'm already seeing some defaults on office portfolios in the DC region. More (and potentially lots more) coming in the next eighteen months. Banks are better capitalized than '08 and the commercial sector is much smaller than residential so I don't see an '08 type fallout, but there is some pain ahead.

https://fortune.com/2023/04/24/morg...ancial-crisis-goldman-sachs-and-ubs-disagree/
 
Commercial (office) sector of the real estate market is about to "go thru some things". I think the linked article below is behind a paywall, but everyone from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs to UBS is sounding alarm bells.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.2T of CRE loans are coming due before YE 2024. These office buildings (office building portfolios) are staring at refinancing costs greatly in excess of their current rate and landlords who own these buildings have 30+% vacancy rates due to WFH and other factors. That is a bad combo.

I'm already seeing some defaults on office portfolios in the DC region. More (and potentially lots more) coming in the next eighteen months. Banks are better capitalized than '08 and the commercial sector is much smaller than residential so I don't see an '08 type fallout, but there is some pain ahead.

https://fortune.com/2023/04/24/morg...ancial-crisis-goldman-sachs-and-ubs-disagree/
Discussed on the stock and investment thread already. No even close to GFC.
 
I love work from anywhere.

I hope major employers eliminate it en masse.

Too many noobs overcrowding places better left uncrowded.
 
I love work from anywhere.

I hope major employers eliminate it en masse.

Too many noobs overcrowding places better left uncrowded.

I don't know if work from home is good or not good for large companies and "culture". What I do find funny is the folks railing against WFH need their child or grandchild to help them access their iPhone if the software gets upgraded in the middle of the night. I'm simply not sure the Sam Zell's or even Jaime Dimon's of the world are the right folks to opine on the delta in productivity and mentoring of remote work v in-person work being it is less than two years old. WFH is new and it is tech or at least tech-adjacent.

The only thing I feel strongly about is the companies who get WFH right are going to have a big advantage in the next decade (imo).
 
Are you Jesse Waters? 😉 --He actually "may" have done better than you.

Did you get another place?

I am not lol, surprised his hasn’t sold. It took me 5 days. I have not gotten another place, I’m relocating to San Diego, so it will just be an occasional LBI rental with family/friends moving forward.
 
I am not lol, surprised his hasn’t sold. It took me 5 days. I have not gotten another place, I’m relocating to San Diego, so it will just be an occasional LBI rental with family/friends moving forward.
How's the buyer's market in San Diego?
You have an area picked out?
Love La Jolla. The gaslight district in the city is great too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Section124
How's the buyer's market in San Diego?
You have an area picked out?
Love La Jolla. The gaslight district in the city is great too.
Similar to here, not a whole lot of inventory. I might rent for a while if needed. LaJolla is definitely on the list along with Carmel Valley, Encinitas and a few others.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Knight Shift
As someone who works from home all but 1 day a month I totally agree. I’m at the tail end of my career so it works for me but everything I know about my job was learned by being in the office and having those conversations with co workers throughout the day.
I retired right before COVID hit and I'm sure I would've hated working from home in my old job as director of process development with groups of 20-30, typically. In that job, I used to walk around the floor where all my folks were a few times a day, checking in on things in the lab or pilot plant or just on any key issues and those conversations would often lead to impromptu hallway "meetings" on these key issues, often resulting in brainstorming that led to important ideas and solutions - and some of those discussions were much richer when they took place "on the floor" (gemba) where the work was being done and actually seeing how some reaction or process (or troubleshooting problem) looked in the lab or pilot plant.

Or sometimes emails led to a walk down the hall to further discuss some breaking issue or problem. And occasionally, these one-on-one or small group discussions occurred in "reverse" when people would stop by my office. I can't imagine being able to do this kind of informal brainstorming and problem-solving nearly as well remotely, as I got to see how inefficient that was when working with our remote contract labs or manufacturers abroad, where video/teleconferences were the only realistic way to get things done. The other benefit of in-person conversations and meetings is simply better relationship building. Most of the people I know in my old area like the flexibility of WFH, but are glad that most folks are back on site with regard to getting things done.
 
I retired right before COVID hit and I'm sure I would've hated working from home in my old job as director of process development with groups of 20-30, typically. In that job, I used to walk around the floor where all my folks were a few times a day, checking in on things in the lab or pilot plant or just on any key issues and those conversations would often lead to impromptu hallway "meetings" on these key issues, often resulting in brainstorming that led to important ideas and solutions - and some of those discussions were much richer when they took place "on the floor" (gemba) where the work was being done and actually seeing how some reaction or process (or troubleshooting problem) looked in the lab or pilot plant.

Or sometimes emails led to a walk down the hall to further discuss some breaking issue or problem. And occasionally, these one-on-one or small group discussions occurred in "reverse" when people would stop by my office. I can't imagine being able to do this kind of informal brainstorming and problem-solving nearly as well remotely, as I got to see how inefficient that was when working with our remote contract labs or manufacturers abroad, where video/teleconferences were the only realistic way to get things done. The other benefit of in-person conversations and meetings is simply better relationship building. Most of the people I know in my old area like the flexibility of WFH, but are glad that most folks are back on site with regard to getting things done.

I totally agree, that is definitely lost but it works for me in my current role. That being said, I would not like it if I was younger or at the onset of my career. My nephew is an engineer at Boeing and due to the projects he works on was full time in the office even during Covid. He said he learns so much just listening to the old timers discussions and impromptu conversations. He is amazed at how many of his peers (he is 28) are so angry that they can't work remotely. As he said, there is no way you can learn the nuances of certain jobs by working remotely, like you said you need those daily, impromptu discussions.
 
I retired right before COVID hit and I'm sure I would've hated working from home in my old job as director of process development with groups of 20-30, typically. In that job, I used to walk around the floor where all my folks were a few times a day, checking in on things in the lab or pilot plant or just on any key issues and those conversations would often lead to impromptu hallway "meetings" on these key issues, often resulting in brainstorming that led to important ideas and solutions - and some of those discussions were much richer when they took place "on the floor" (gemba) where the work was being done and actually seeing how some reaction or process (or troubleshooting problem) looked in the lab or pilot plant.

Or sometimes emails led to a walk down the hall to further discuss some breaking issue or problem. And occasionally, these one-on-one or small group discussions occurred in "reverse" when people would stop by my office. I can't imagine being able to do this kind of informal brainstorming and problem-solving nearly as well remotely, as I got to see how inefficient that was when working with our remote contract labs or manufacturers abroad, where video/teleconferences were the only realistic way to get things done. The other benefit of in-person conversations and meetings is simply better relationship building. Most of the people I know in my old area like the flexibility of WFH, but are glad that most folks are back on site with regard to getting things done.

Counterpoint. I assume your in office team was from +/- 60 minutes from the office. So your talent pool was limited to a +/- 60 mile radius from your office. If you had the ability to pick your team and your pool of talent to choose from was the entire country would you have been able to assemble a better/more productive group?

As I wrote above I do not know enough to opine whether WFH is "good or bad". (IMO) it is too soon and too new to have a formulated opinion. But, for every "con" in WFH there is a "pro" it seems.
 
Last edited:
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT