If you turn on most TV news they're begging for it. Drama sells.
every now and then I will take a look at local CNJ area on zillow and thank God we found the place we closed on last year. These prices at these rates for stuff that hasn’t been updated since the 1980s is nauseating.
he's the board moron, bigot, know it all and most self righteous person here , that is well established
Seems like the guy who called Abe Lincoln a terrorist is talking about himself again.
I guess when he's in a room it was always seems like everyone else feels smarter...with reason...
I guess when he's in a room it was always seems like everyone else feels smarter...with reason...
If you turn on the TV any time the job numbers are released and unemployment is historically low you can hear the sadness in their voices.
Most people complaining that prices aren't plummeting aren't trying to buy a home either. There's a lot of people who profit in chaos. Sad but true fact.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I’ve met a bunch of people lately that would be interested in moving but don’t want to let go of their ridiculously low mortgage rates, plus they have zero confidence they would find something they like. Other than a 2008 type event, what could realistically free housing from this inventory mess?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I meet and talk to those same people daily. You nailed it.
Imo as unconventional as it sounds, its gonna take lower rates to get inventory to loosen up. This way those homeowners can sell and let go of their 3.47% rate for a say 4.5%-5% rate. Until that happens were stuck imo. That was one of my theories when I started this thread nearly a year ag and its now playing out.
I’m not in the mortgage industry so I have no clue if this is even possible. But it would be great if a lender came up with a product that allowed you to carry your mortgage rate/loan balance to a new property. So, if I’m at 3% on a 15-year with balance of $400K I can essentially transfer that to a new property and then if I need to borrow more I would do so at current rates. Otherwise, seems like homeowners will be playing this psychological interest rate game for next 20+ years. I also think if more companies kill WFH it would force many folks back to cities and may help suburbs inventory levels. At this point, I have no idea how some cities aren’t on the verge of financial collapse due to lower tax receipts.
Or you lose your job and have to move. I locked in a 30-fixed at 2.5% that closed in March 2022. No way I’m moving.
Why would a mortgage company come up with a product that reduces their profit 😀
Obviously the lender would have to make money. Doesn’t necessarily reduce their profit…tack on a transfer fee…pick-up new customers and new loan origination wrt what would essentially be a second mortgage on top of the transferred mortgage.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
And even if you move in the future youd have to really consider selling it OR renting it for pretty good cashflow. Im seeing a lot of people renting their sfh as opposed to sell right now. Alot more than usual
Companies are not killing WFH. The firms that test those waters lose some of their best talent right off the bat, there is always a shrewd firm looking to continue WFH in the hopes of poaching top talent.
I don’t disagree but at some point the WFH sham will have negative implications on companies and the economy. About the only thing I agree on with Musk is that WFH is a joke. I’m not saying work doesn’t get done at home. But productivity is WAY lower in WFH environments. Many Companies are quietly implementing productivity software/solutions = and results are telling. Plus, how do certain professions develop talent in WFH? Lawyers, bankers, accountants, etc. - the real training occurs when learning from bosses and mentors, side by side. I have to believe there will be a shift back to the office at some point, even if just M-Th and corporate culture adopts 4 day work week as compromise.
How is it a sham? I’m 100% WFH, the internal teams and external individuals I work directly with are based all throughout the country. If I was forced to the office on a 3-4 day schedule I would have zero in-person meetings and do exactly what I would be doing at home only now charging the company extra in terms of rent, electricity, etc. As for mentoring, the VP I’ve reported to for the past 2 years has hands down been the best mentor of my career. We video chat every day and have a great working relationship. I’ve sadly only met them once in person.
I agree that in certain roles and industries it doesn’t make sense, but to broad brush it as a sham also doesn’t make sense.
This is an interesting topic. I WFH in NJ, and have a team people that report to me. They are located in several states. In the last 12 months I have hired 3 highly qualified people from other companies and none of them live in NJ. If we couldn't WFH, I could not hire them. My current boss is a great guy and great mentor. He was hired a few years ago during covid. I worked with him for over a year before I met him in person.
My company is in a growth period so we need to be able to allow WFH in order to hire qualified people. I hope we don't have a major down turn, but if we do maybe the company cuts WFH in an easy way to let people go knowing many would not move to NJ????
I was going to the office once a week, but found myself in a conference having meetings on Teams. If wasn't worth my time to drive into the office. Not even once a week.
Prices are crazy, and I check zillow and reator.com for prices in beach towns every few months. I have a few years left on my current mortgage and once I pay it off I want to buy a 2nd home by the beach in Southern Ocean or further south NJ. Not sure where the rates will be in a few years, or if more houses will be listed.
There may be certain industries/roles that work great with WFH. But a traditional corporate environment different story. The main reason that people are relying so heavily on Teams is entirely because of WFH and lack of corporate travel. There would be more in-person meetings if workers were receptive and made the effort. BTW, I’m 100% WFH and I’m not complaining. I do all the same video chats, Teams meetings, etc. But I simply don’t believe we are a more productive company (or country for that matter) as a result of WFH. Humans are inherently social and collaboration tends to thrive when face-to-face, whether in a conference room, coffee break, lunch, or sitting in a co-workers office. Otherwise, just make all schools (K-12 and college) virtual on the theory that learning from someone on a screen with a camera is just as good.
Same here…but if everyone in the office came back on a coordinated schedule that wouldn’t be an issue. But easier said than done. There are days I love WFH and makes life easier. But there are days when my house feels like a work prison and need to break away, or would enjoy some real work interaction. Regardless, I do think in next 5 years you’ll see transition back to at least 3-4 days a week in corporate office except for certain jobs/industries.
Mortgage company will raise your rate if it’s not your primary. But I’m sure no one is that honest.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Unemployment needs to go up. Government needs to stop their stupidity with spending (not happening until 2024 at the earliest) and we need to go back to our oil policy under Trump for starters.
Government spending has been at a crazy pace for the last 20+ years. It’s not slowing down anything soon no matter who is POTUS.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
tough question.
Has it fallen yet? My call in the OP was under the assumption we hovered around 5.75% rates, that obviously didn't hold. I amended my call based on where rates stuck and said we'll probably see 0-3% yoy price declined nationwide.
We're just going to be in a steady period here it seems. Super low inventory that doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon. Housing is fine tbh. It's not like a stock where there's calling bottoms and things like that.
I went under contract on LBI in 5 days, over ask. The market there shows no signs of slowing down.
Did the guy in the video style his hair to match the bar graph?
Feel your pain. We are so sick of WFH. Our office is 35 miles from home. We started going in Tuesdays-Thursday last week, and trying to inspire others to come in more than once per week. Plus we have summer interns starting, and it is difficult to roll out the red carpet, get to know them and provide them a meaningful experience via Teams/Zoom. The experience is so much better in person, including small moments in the break room, dropping by an intern's office to see how they are doing and if they have any questions, etc. It's not the same to drop a Teams message to do the same.
There are other aspects of the pre-pandemic work experience that you just can't replicate with WFH. Bagel days, afternoon tea/coffee break to shoot the breeze for 15 minutes, reading the sports page with a colleague in the break room and talking about Mets/Yankees/Knicks/Nets/Rangers/Devils/Etc. We also do the puzzles/Jumble in the Daily News each morning before getting started. Someone will chime in with this sounds like a lot of wasted time, but it's not. Just small moments to break up the monotony of the day, and in these informal interactions, we often mix in some work talk on how a new software app/package is working or something new with our government filing interface. These cannot be replicated via Teams chats.
Have seen in several places/articles that the commercial real estate market will face a day of reckoning as leases come up for renewal. Half of our floor is available for rent in our building. Personally, I don't see a high renewal rate, and it will be interesting to see if in 2-3 years things will be back to pre-pandemic lower WFH rates. It's a weird new world.
The biggest detriment re WFH is developing younger talent. All of those examples you gave are actually events that help those guys learn, understand norms, etc.
It also makes the competitive aspects stronger as well.
Totally agree. The social and development aspects of in-person work are critical to collaboration, creativity, and learning. Not to mention productivity suffers in WFH. Crazy to think back to when my mornings were consumed with day care drop-offs, I wore a suit, and constantly checked the clock at the end is the day.
Kyk: does this market ever go back to a healthy supply/demand model? What’s so odd to me is that when I bought my first house back in 2006 rates were around 5%, there were still bidding wars, but the supply kept the market rolling up until the crash. If you didn’t get a particular house, you felt confident another one was coming. This market feels so stagnant and the quality of houses are few and far between. And, while markets may be cooling off a bit, that seems to only apply to mediocre houses. If you have a nice house/yard in a nice neighborhood you need to hire a parking attendant for an open house. I’d list my House tomorrow if there was something for me to buy. Does the housing market ever get to the point of stagnation that the gov’t has to create a specific real estate interest rate program to unfreeze it? Or offer some tax incentive to sellers?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Great questions, my theory that I postulated in the OP is playing out in real time.
1) We had a 2 year stretch where if you had debt on your house, you were able to refi at a rate in the 3% range. That creates a fixed cost of living that is so incredibly cheap it’s hard to fathom.
2) to answer your question, what unlocks this inventory? Well as unconventional as it sounds, lower rates, maybe or perhaps nothing. See below.
Below is a bit I wrote in a newsletter a few months back.
Here is why the move-up buyer market is on life support and why we may very well remain near historically low inventory for the rest of this decade.
The Case-Shiller index which is the most widely cited source for home prices shows that between 2018 to present, home prices have grown by 50%, so lets do an example based on that.
Assumptions:
- Buyer bought a house for $500,000 in 2018
- Buyer put down 20% when buying their home
- Buyer has a 3.47% interest rate (current nationwide average interest rate on home loans)
- Move-up buyers traditionally trade up to a home that is 50% more in value
- Home prices according to the Case-Shiller Index are up 50% since 2018
A buyer who bought a home in 2018 for $500,000, now has a home worth $750,000. If this buyer bought this home with 20% down that would imply they had a $400,000 mortgage which at 3.47% interest would mean their monthly payment (just principal and interest) is $1,789.
For that buyer to buy their same exact home today, it would cost $750,000 and with the same 20% down would mean they'd be taking out a loan for $600,000 at an interest rate of 6.45% (mortgage news daily nationwide average interest rate on 30 year fixed rate loan as of 2/10/2023). This would imply for the same exact home today their monthly payment would be $3,773 rather than $1,789.
Furthermore, to be your traditional move-up would imply they'd be selling their now $750,000 home and purchasing a roughly $1,125,000 home. With 20% down on that purchase, they'd be looking at a $900,000 loan which at a 6.45% interest rate would mean a monthly payment of $5,659 or otherwise put just about $4,000 more PER MONTH in just principal and interest than their current monthly payment on their home they bought for $500,000 back in 2018 at a 3.47% interest rate. This is before even accounting for increases in taxes and insurance which likely makes that monthly payment closer to $5,000 more per month than their current monthly housing cost! That's $60,000 EXTRA a year and that's post tax money! Which means you'd have to make close to $100,000 just to clear $60,000!
This is why the move-up buyer market is dead, people are staying in their homes longer and it's going to take a lot for inventory to get back to historical norms. What exactly will it take? Perhaps lower rates so they feel comfortable letting go of their 3.47% rates but honestly I’m not even sure that does it.
Depends on the role and industry. My team is more productive WFH for the most part.
Hybrid is the answer, but anything more than 2-3 days in office is crazy.
Everyone always speaks of the in-person collaboration, but 90% when we you come into office everyone is busy at their desks and these magical collaboration sessions are few and far between. Even when we do come into office, most meetings are still held over video because it’s easier and more efficient.
Spot on…especially the math…and I’m that potential move-up buyer that simply waited too long to pull the trigger and the post-COVID surge in prices wrecked a handshake off-market deal I had with a seller in my area. On the bright-side, my house/property is desirable and I don’t need to move. With that said, for the “right house”, I could put down way more cash so I won’t have to sweat interest rates. But, the ”right house” I saw last weekend had over 10 offers that day, plenty over asking, and I’m not motivated enough to play that game.
I think you would get a lot of people at your open house . But maybe less offers than you would have gotten a year ago due to interest rates
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Last year was 40-50 offers, this year is 10 offers.
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