OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I grew up in Edison. In the 50/60/70 builders did build small ranch starter homes on 1/4 or 1/2 acre lots. Those homes are now being sold for $500k+ to builders who are knocking them down and building new houses and selling for $1M+.
There is no new land to build on. The town is full so it’s only knock downs from here on out. There is no starter home. Any home cheap enough to be considered a starter home is basically run down and will have a builder buy it for the land. There is nothing that the government can do about that nor should there be.
But I also agree with the other posters that the government restrictions aren’t helpful to the housing market.
I’m not sure where is NJ there is enough open space to build starter home from a government program???

This is part of the reason I’m particularly bullish on the sun belt. Areas in Houston where you have schools that are ranked higher than those in ridgewood you can get a nice 4 bedroom home for $450-500K.

Heres an example. This house sends to Clements High School which is the #555 ranked high school nationally. Its listed at $450K, it would be $1,450,000 (this house is 3K sq ft and ridgewood is selling at $495/ft) if in ridgewood and ridgewood has the #644 ranked high school in the same rankings.

I use this as an example because my partners and I own a complex right there zoned to Clements.

11418 Bucks Bridge Ln, Sugar Land, TX 77498 | Zillow

11418 Bucks Bridge Ln, Sugar Land TX, is a Single Family home that contains 2999 sq ft and was built in 2000.It contains 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $452,800, which has increased by $2,807 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/new-jersey/districts/ridgewood-public-school-district/ridgewood-high-school-12746

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/texas/districts/fort-bend-independent-school-district/clements-high-school-19064#:~:text=Clements%20High%20School%202022%20Rankings,555%20in%20the%20National%20Rankings.

 

[RUskoolie]

I grew up in Edison. In the 50/60/70 builders did build small ranch starter homes on 1/4 or 1/2 acre lots. Those homes are now being sold for $500k+ to builders who are knocking them down and building new houses and selling for $1M+.
There is no new land to build on. The town is full so it’s only knock downs from here on out. There is no starter home. Any home cheap enough to be considered a starter home is basically run down and will have a builder buy it for the land. There is nothing that the government can do about that nor should there be.
But I also agree with the other posters that the government restrictions aren’t helpful to the housing market.
I’m not sure where is NJ there is enough open space to build starter home from a government program???

Out in the sticks. Plum is not realizing 70 years ago the sticks were in Edison but everything is so developed that now the sticks are near the Delaware river.

 

[RUskoolie]

Edison is the definition of suburban ghetto. Sadly, my old hometown of EB has followed suit. Awful planning and consideration for the future. Very NJ.

Lol Edison? I would love to hear your take on that.

 

[RUskoolie]

They built starter homes because it was feasible to do so.

Labor was less expensive
Materials were less expensive
Land was less expensive

And #1 BY FAR, there was less red tape. Soft costs before you even stick a shovel in the ground due to the government have gotten absurd. So its the complete opposite of what you say. If you wanna make building less expensive to creat more starter homes, limit government bs, dont fvcking expand it

I just got off a completely worthless call with some people at the NJ Clean Energy program. Skoolie, tries to build very energy efficient buildings. My next build is work force apartments. Anyhoo....to build an 8 unit building and follow their energy star rating the NJ government incentive is a whopping $500.

$500 to have another person inspect multiple times during the construction phase, to spend God knows how much more on insluation, windows, doors, sheathing, appliances etc....so they can give me a $500 rebate.

And people cant figure out why government causes so many problems in the housing sector.

It should be $25,000 if they're serious about that. Total joke.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lol Edison? I would love to hear your take on that.

Suburban ghetto = wasteland of residential units on every piece of land possible, including many older single family homes and tons of low quality cluster garbage.

And for Edison, throw in Route 1 with a massive amount of vacant eyesores and dilapidated retail complexes (Route 18 isn't much better).

 

[T2Kplus20]

I just got off a completely worthless call with some people at the NJ Clean Energy program.

LOL! My significant other does a ton of work the NJ Clean Energy program and BPU. Lots of stories to tell.

 

[RUskoolie]

Suburban ghetto = wasteland of residential units on every piece of land possible, including many older single family homes and tons of low quality cluster garbage.

And for Edison, throw in Route 1 with a massive amount of vacant eyesores and dilapidated retail complexes (Route 18 isn't much better).

That's basically everything West of 287 then.

I grew up in a town like that and now that I love in the GOAT of Somerset County I cannot fathom living like that but plenty of people do.

 

[RUskoolie]

LOL! My significant other does a ton of work the NJ Clean Energy program and BPU. Lots of stories to tell.

They're lucky i don't run for Governor.

 

[jtung230]

WSJ article about Blackstone potentially defaulting on a mutifamily portfolio in NYC. Negative leverage catches up with everyone

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

WSJ article about Blackstone potentially defaulting on a mutifamily portfolio in NYC. Negative leverage catches up with everyone

Idk why someone would ever buy in a rent controlled city where they treat landlords like criminals. My guess is thats 90% of the reason why

 

[T2Kplus20]

That's basically everything West of 287 then.

I grew up in a town like that and now that I love in the GOAT of Somerset County I cannot fathom living like that but plenty of people do.

What happened to EB in the late 80s and thru the 90s broke my heart. It had so much character and open space prior to that last massive housing boom. Once I settled into the current SoCo town, I dedicated a lot of my time to preventing that from happening here.

 

[jtung230]

Idk why someone would ever buy in a rent controlled city where they treat landlords like criminals. My guess is thats 90% of the reason why

The 421a program is a great success. All institutional owners buy in the city. It’s too big of a market for the retail syndicate groups.But the trouble will be the same for all markets. Negative leverage will hurt everyone.

 

[Plum Street]

Out in the sticks. Plum is not realizing 70 years ago the sticks were in Edison but everything is so developed that now the sticks are near the Delaware river.

Yes plum realizes it .

 

[Plum Street]

They built starter homes because it was feasible to do so.

Labor was less expensive
Materials were less expensive
Land was less expensive

And #1 BY FAR, there was less red tape. Soft costs before you even stick a shovel in the ground due to the government have gotten absurd. So its the complete opposite of what you say. If you wanna make building less expensive to creat more starter homes, limit government bs, dont fvcking expand it

Yes …we need to find a way for it to be feasible again.

 

[jtung230]

Homeowners feel trapped by their lower mortgage rate, survey finds

Approximately 82% of potential move-up buyers said they felt trapped by their current low mortgage rate on their home, a Realtor.com poll found.

www.yahoo.com

😀

 

[Knight Shift]

A client of mine who just closed on a small commercial building asked me about converting the top floor to apartments. I told him no brainer.

There simply is not enough housing for people in this country.

We were debating that in our office building (we are not the owners), just wondering how you would install adequate plumbing when in office buildings there is usually two bathrooms per floor for a large amount of square footage. For example, our floor has a men's and women's room for about 20,000 Sf.

It is easy enough to install drains and vents from the top floor to the ground floor without disturbing the tenants in the lower floors? Perhaps there are pipe chases we are not aware of that would make this work.

 

[Knight Shift]

Lol Edison? I would love to hear your take on that.

He's a highfalutin idiot. Don't bother. Edison is a fine, middle class town with good schools.

 

[Knight Shift]

Yes plum realizes it .

NJ a national role model for affordable housing? This report tallies recent success

Towns have made progress on affordable housing since 2015, when a judge disbanded the agency overseeing such projects in favor of court settlements.

www.app.com

 

[RUAldo]

New construction won’t save the real estate market with inventory because of cost to build and lack of available land. The whole market is a mess. Thank you Powell! I’ve heard real estate agents are dropping like flies because tough to make a living when there are no houses to sell. It’s gridlock with no end in sight unless interest rates make a meaningful drop. Or, the labor market has to crash forcing people to sell. On that front, it seems like everyone I know that made the move to big tech in the last 3 years are now being laid off. First in, first out.

 

[T2Kplus20]

He's a highfalutin idiot. Don't bother. Edison is a fine, middle class town with good schools.

Edison HS good? LOL.

 

[Joey Bags]

Edison HS good? LOL.

Not to mention the Edison Police Department is straight out of the sopranos

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Homeowners feel trapped by their lower mortgage rate, survey finds

Approximately 82% of potential move-up buyers said they felt trapped by their current low mortgage rate on their home, a Realtor.com poll found.

www.yahoo.com

😀

Haha i actually went over an almost identical stat in the video in the OP. The % of homeowners who said theyd move to another house if rates were above 6% was around 15%. Nuts.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

New construction won’t save the real estate market with inventory because of cost to build and lack of available land. The whole market is a mess. Thank you Powell! I’ve heard real estate agents are dropping like flies because tough to make a living when there are no houses to sell. It’s gridlock with no end in sight unless interest rates make a meaningful drop. Or, the labor market has to crash forcing people to sell. On that front, it seems like everyone I know that made the move to big tech in the last 3 years are now being laid off. First in, first out.

I can confirm to less people getting into real estate and currently part time agents dropping it. I own a real estate school in NJ and q1 enrollment is down 29% compared to q1 2022 and down 52% compared to q1 2021

 

[Knight Shift]

Edison HS good? LOL.

I was mistaken, you are a highfalutin dipshit.

JP Stevens ranked right up there with Montgomery High School.

 

[RUAldo]

I can confirm to less people getting into real estate and currently part time agents dropping it. I own a real estate school in NJ and q1 enrollment is down 29% compared to q1 2022 and down 52% compared to q1 2021

That’s exactly what my agent buddy told me. He said it’s been good for him because he’s taking market share. But, agents are walking away in droves and new agents are few and far between.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I was mistaken, you are a highfalutin dipshit.

JP Stevens ranked right up there with Montgomery High School.

So, ignore the other half of town? :)

 

[RU205]

So, ignore the other half of town? :)

To this point, when I said I grew up in Edison I should have said North Edison. I try to ignore the other half of the town, but route 1 is getting a facelift. A lot of new businesses and construction going on. Some of the terrible eyesores are getting knocked down.

 

[NotInRHouse]

That's the business model because government makes it impossible.

You guys can't be pro Democrat and wonder why rent/housing is not affordable when built new. Not trying to get political (although someone ITT will get butthurt about it) but it's just the truth. There are protections and then there is insanity. That's where we are at now in NJ.

Literally impossible.

I just spent nearly $60,000 between architect fees, permit fees, attorney fees, site fees, cops to block off streets, engineering fees etc to build a new 2 family in New Brunswick. Now it's the nicest in town because of the effort I put in as the builder but even if I wanted to build a cheap 2 family shitbox like they build all over Elizabeth and Newark (not my words, my supplier) I would still need to pay something like that because of all the red tape to get the approval.

That's one big reason why affordable housing is DOA.

Actually the mandate in NJ that 10-20% of new construction be affordable provides affordable housing.

It's not going to be cheap otherwise because a lot of people want to live in NJ.

It has nothing to do with politics. Upstate NY is one of the cheapest regions in America because it's not very popular to live, but it's a blue state.

An article just out shows IL is actually the cheapest place to buy a home. Must be because it's such a red state lol.

Meet the cheapest US states to buy a house

A new study analyzing Zillow data has found that the monthly median sale price of a house last year was more than $500,000 in Utah, California and Colorado — and more than a staggering $800,000 in …

thehill.com

 

[NotInRHouse]

NJ a national role model for affordable housing? This report tallies recent success

Towns have made progress on affordable housing since 2015, when a judge disbanded the agency overseeing such projects in favor of court settlements.

www.app.com

What place do facts have in this discussion?

We need more anecdotes!

 

[NotInRHouse]

I was mistaken, you are a highfalutin dipshit.

JP Stevens ranked right up there with Montgomery High School.

He has multiple handles on this site to push the same sad false nonsense.

 

[NotInRHouse]

Yes …we need to find a way for it to be feasible again.

For laughs I did some research.

There's new builds in Atlantic County starting at not only 300 but 200 and in fact townhomes for 189k.

New Homes in Atlantic County, NJ - 10 Communities

Find and explore new homes and subdivisions across Atlantic County, NJ. Starting at just $269,900.

www.newhomesource.com

The idea it's not affordable to live in NJ...it's just not accurate. The people who years ago were deemed crazy for moving to say, Jackson, are now reaping the benefits of their investment,

Expensive places cost more money yes. But if you have a younger couple in their late 20s-30s who make 100k each, that means they could afford a 600k home which is going to get you a nice home in well regarded towns. Zillow pointed me a 4 bedroom home in nice shape in North Edison for 620k.

And that's on top of most millennials having parents who are...say...close to uh...moving on...and the money they're going to get from inheritances.

 

[Knight Shift]

For laughs I did some research.

There's new builds in Atlantic County starting at not only 300 but 200 and in fact townhomes for 189k.

New Homes in Atlantic County, NJ - 10 Communities

Find and explore new homes and subdivisions across Atlantic County, NJ. Starting at just $269,900.

www.newhomesource.com

The idea it's not affordable to live in NJ...it's just not accurate. The people who years ago were deemed crazy for moving to say, Jackson, are now reaping the benefits of their investment,

Expensive places cost more money yes. But if you have a younger couple in their late 20s-30s who make 100k each, that means they could afford a 600k home which is going to get you a nice home in well regarded towns. Zillow pointed me a 4 bedroom home in nice shape in North Edison for 620k.

And that's on top of most millennials having parents who are...say...close to uh...moving on...and the money they're going to get from inheritances.

I remember winter renting our beach house to a couple building a house in Jackson in the early 2000's. IIRC, it was $300K all in for a 3500-4000 SF Mcmansion, and we wondered to ourselves--who would want to live out in the boondocks? Those houses are selling for $800-900K now, maybe a bit lower. Inflation, appreciation, more stuff out there now all helped.

 

[NotInRHouse]

I remember winter renting our beach house to a couple building a house in Jackson in the early 2000's. IIRC, it was $300K all in for a 3500-4000 SF Mcmansion, and we wondered to ourselves--who would want to live out in the boondocks? Those houses are selling for $800-900K now, maybe a bit lower. Inflation, appreciation, more stuff out there now all helped.

Absolutely. I remember the ads in the APP- "drive 20 minutes, save 200k!"

It's also the expansion of Lakewood. I was playing around on Zillow looking in your neck of the woods and something popped up in Lakewood- a 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch, no basement...700k. It was in nice shape, but wow. So I guess the 800k for that McMansion in Jackson seems like a bargain.

 

[Knight Shift]

Absolutely. I remember the ads in the APP- "drive 20 minutes, save 200k!"

It's also the expansion of Lakewood. I was playing around on Zillow looking in your neck of the woods and something popped up in Lakewood- a 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch, no basement...700k. It was in nice shape, but wow. So I guess the 800k for that McMansion in Jackson seems like a bargain.

The bargains in Wall are mostly in the 07719 zip code. The Sea Girt and Spring Lake zip codes are $$$$, which does not make sense other than proximity to beach. You can get some bargains in Sea Girt Estates between Sea Girt Ave and West Chicago Ave, but remember the White Swan Cleaners plume runs underground through there.

IMO, the best opportunities are fixer uppers in Allenwood and Ramshorn drive areas, and the Herbertsville section if you can snag a smaller house out near Easy Street. But there are also some decent opportunities around Hurley Pond Rd by the Central School.

I see Wall may be getting close to settling their affordable housing obligations in the courts. Wonder what that will man for taxes. Know one thing for sure, traffic will get worse. Atlantic Ave in front of our fire station is already a freeway at rush hour. Back when I was a wee young lad, it was tumbleweeds and horse drawn carriages.

 

[RUskoolie]

I can confirm to less people getting into real estate and currently part time agents dropping it. I own a real estate school in NJ and q1 enrollment is down 29% compared to q1 2022 and down 52% compared to q1 2021

Good, hopefully less morons I have to deal with. Incredible how dumb so many agents are that I come across when trying to do a deal.

 

[RUskoolie]

Actually the mandate in NJ that 10-20% of new construction be affordable provides affordable housing.

It's not going to be cheap otherwise because a lot of people want to live in NJ.

It has nothing to do with politics. Upstate NY is one of the cheapest regions in America because it's not very popular to live, but it's a blue state.

An article just out shows IL is actually the cheapest place to buy a home. Must be because it's such a red state lol.

Meet the cheapest US states to buy a house

A new study analyzing Zillow data has found that the monthly median sale price of a house last year was more than $500,000 in Utah, California and Colorado — and more than a staggering $800,000 in …

thehill.com

I knew that comment would upset someone like you. I don't expect you to understand.

 

[NotInRHouse]

The bargains in Wall are mostly in the 07719 zip code. The Sea Girt and Spring Lake zip codes are $$$$, which does not make sense other than proximity to beach. You can get some bargains in Sea Girt Estates between Sea Girt Ave and West Chicago Ave, but remember the White Swan Cleaners plume runs underground through there.

IMO, the best opportunities are fixer uppers in Allenwood and Ramshorn drive areas, and the Herbertsville section if you can snag a smaller house out near Easy Street. But there are also some decent opportunities around Hurley Pond Rd by the Central School.

I see Wall may be getting close to settling their affordable housing obligations in the courts. Wonder what that will man for taxes. Know one thing for sure, traffic will get worse. Atlantic Ave in front of our fire station is already a freeway at rush hour. Back when I was a wee young lad, it was tumbleweeds and horse drawn carriages.

The circles on 34 and 35 are always a blast.

The Ramtown area on the border used to have deals...key words...used to...

 

[NotInRHouse]

I knew that comment would upset someone like you. I don't expect you to understand.

Someone like me who studies the laws and deals in facts, sure.

Someone else posted the article with facts about how NJ is one of the leaders in providing affordable housing. You're certainly entitled to anecdotes and perhaps they're your reality, but it's not the reality.

 

[RUskoolie]

Someone like me who studies the laws and deals in facts, sure.

Someone else posted the article with facts about how NJ is one of the leaders in providing affordable housing. You're certainly entitled to anecdotes and perhaps they're your reality, but it's not the reality.

Do you know the difference between affordable housing units and what @Plum Street was referring to? It's 2 completely different things.

 

[RUAldo]

The five year chart on homes in the Carolinas is absolutely insane. I’m seeing homes that sold in 2017/2018 for $775K that are now on the market for $6M. What’s really interesting though is the taxes appear to have jumped from $17K to $46K. How the F can people even afford to move down Sourh.