OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

[RUskoolie]

So you want to derail your own thread. Have it. Deglobalization was already underway, deficit spending was already underway, zirp was already underway. If the president controls everything why were all of these already happening under trump? Even though trump was prez he doesn’t control but Biden as prez controls everything. Lol

I can't stand this talking point. You went from President Trump needs to shutdown an invisible virus to President Biden can't control the economy in any way, shape or form. Which one is it guys?

All I said was Biden made a bad decision worse. That's pretty obvious. His decision making on both the economy, student loans, oil and EPA guidelines have screwed my business multiple times already and it is having an effect on housing.

Christ, learn to stop being so butthurt if someone criticizes the President. I read takes on Trump on here all the time and don't go running into the thread like his attorney.

 

[RUskoolie]

Yes that must be it.

Which countries w developed economies have lower inflation?

Let's see. UK, Conservative government, higher inflation. Shall we get into the Eurozone as well?

But let me guess, the guy in charge in 2020 didn't cause 15% unemployment and the checks he mailed out w his signature had no effect either, right?

The Governors in blue states are what caused high unemployment lol. How retarded are you? Or do you have no memory of how bad unemployment was in places like NY, NJ, CA etc. Trump had no power to shutdown states. States did. I remember. murphy tried to annihilate my business. Start a thread on the CE board about this and tag me and I'll embarass you there instead of here. Don't hijack a great thread.

 

[NotInRHouse]

The Governors in blue states are what caused high unemployment lol. How retarded are you? Or do you have no memory of how bad unemployment was in places like NY, NJ, CA etc. Trump had no power to shutdown states. States did. I remember. murphy tried to annihilate my business. Start a thread on the CE board about this and tag me and I'll embarass you there instead of here. Don't hijack a great thread.

Sure, sure bro.

I'll wait for proof that states that didn't "shut down" had low unemployment.

And nah, I like it here where every time you post on politics it's another "red wave" aborted.

 

[NotInRHouse]

I can't stand this talking point. You went from President Trump needs to shutdown an invisible virus to President Biden can't control the economy in any way, shape or form. Which one is it guys?

All I said was Biden made a bad decision worse. That's pretty obvious. His decision making on both the economy, student loans, oil and EPA guidelines have screwed my business multiple times already and it is having an effect on housing.

Christ, learn to stop being so butthurt if someone criticizes the President. I read takes on Trump on here all the time and don't go running into the thread like his attorney.

"When it's a Dem President, Dems control the economy, but when it was the sex abuser I worship, Murphy ran the economy!"

"Oh and also, Biden is sleepy and demented but sumultaneously controls the economy!"

"And the economy is so bad that homes have record selling prices and unemployment is at a record low!"

The funny thing is, you expect those of us with actual RU degrees to believe this. This isn't the lawnmower board.

 

[NotInRHouse]

I'm pretty middle of the road, and liberal on social issues. On one hand, previous guy was an unhinged lunatic egomaniac who did things that would please his base and feed his ego. On the other hand, having a very difficult time coming up with a single thing the current admin has done well. Very authoritarian and Orwellian approach to things. The abandonment of free speech principles and open debate is a head scratcher. There are always side-switchers, but have observed many former liberals (particularly classic liberals) abandon ship and declare themselves politically homeless bc they don't want to associate with the lunatic fringe on the other side.

Hoping this country can find a candidate who will unite people and bring a message of hope. It's funny how the NYT and liberal media paint anyone not reading their playbook as "right wing" They did that to Robert F Kennedy, Jr yesterday because he did a town hall on Twitter--oh the horror!

Tim Scott shredded The View crew yesterday. He seems like he could be a good candidate to unite people. Have to do more research on Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. I see he gets labeled for vax misinformation, but that is not a total disqualifying thing for some.

How has this admin been "authoritarian" and "abandoned free speech principles"

Did they ban books...AP classes...women controlling their own bodies...drag shows...etc? Can you give me one example of them cracking down on speech in anyway?

RFK also says Russia is a victim of the genocide they started and Tim Scott can't make up his mind on abortion.

I think the free market has said plenty about Twitter. 59% drop in advertising sales isn't because of the NYT. Whatever you want to believe about vaccination, a lot more concerning to advertisers is the openly racist and anti-Semitic content that is permitted.

 

[brgRC90]

"When it's a Dem President, Dems control the economy, but when it was the sex abuser I worship, Murphy ran the economy!"

"Oh and also, Biden is sleepy and demented but sumultaneously controls the economy!"

"And the economy is so bad that homes have record selling prices and unemployment is at a record low!"

The funny thing is, you expect those of us with actual RU degrees to believe this. This isn't the lawnmower board.

There are people on both sides who will blame everything bad that happens on the president if he's from the other party--and, without irony, get miffed when the other side does it to them.

However, the right is now just making up stuff or claiming things that are good, like an economy with an unemployment rate under 4% and dying for workers, is terrible. Hard to take such partisan hacks seriously.

 

[NotInRHouse]

There are people on both sides who will blame everything bad that happens on the president if he's from the other party--and, without irony, get miffed when the other side does it to them.

However, the right is now just making up stuff or claiming things that are good, like an economy with an unemployment rate under 4% and dying for workers, is terrible. Hard to take such partisan hacks seriously.

That's my favorite part. Like, it's pretty sad when they pretend we didn't have record high gas prices and a collapsing economy under Bush 2 but they literally want to gaslight over what happened 3 years ago.

As if we didn't have a national economic collapse due to abysmal leadership...and they want to claim you can't blame the President for it, but then a year later we have a president who is both asleep and controlling the world economy,

Oh and he didn't name the developed country with less inflation because I guess there isn't one lol.

 

[brgRC90]

That's my favorite part. Like, it's pretty sad when they pretend we didn't have record high gas prices and a collapsing economy under Bush 2 but they literally want to gaslight over what happened 3 years ago.

As if we didn't have a national economic collapse due to abysmal leadership...and they want to claim you can't blame the President for it, but then a year later we have a president who is both asleep and controlling the world economy,

Oh and he didn't name the developed country with less inflation because I guess there isn't one lol.

It isn't worth talking to any such people. Partisan hacks will always say their side never makes mistakes or goes too far (and never criticize anyone on their side unless it's for not being doctrinaire and extreme enough) and they will always say the other side never does anything right--or even admit the other side has good motives. The other side is always sinister.

The right is especially bad with this: EVERYTHING is a communist conspiracy to destroy all that is pure and good, Mom, apple pie and the flag; even a guy putting on a dress is part of the plot! The left often boils everything down to greedy capitalism and white supremacy, which, though greatly exaggerated, are real issues.

It was noted by a US government panel defining fascism in the 30/40s that fascists boil everything down to communism vs fascism, something that sounds disturbingly familiar.

 

[Joey Bags]

How has this admin been "authoritarian" and "abandoned free speech principles"

Did they ban books...AP classes...women controlling their own bodies...drag shows...etc? Can you give me one example of them cracking down on speech in anyway?

RFK also says Russia is a victim of the genocide they started and Tim Scott can't make up his mind on abortion.

I think the free market has said plenty about Twitter. 59% drop in advertising sales isn't because of the NYT. Whatever you want to believe about vaccination, a lot more concerning to advertisers is the openly racist and anti-Semitic content that is permitted.

The federal vaccine mandate, specifically the way in which it was attempted, was the biggest authoritarian play in the US from a legal perspective since the Patriot Act.

Thankfully our judicial system also agreed.

 

[brgRC90]

The federal vaccine mandate, specifically the way in which it was attempted, was the biggest authoritarian play in the US from a legal perspective since the Patriot Act.

Thankfully our judicial system also agreed.

You mean the biggest since a mob egged on by a president broke into the Capitol and tried to change a fair and free election, an anti-democratic move only exceeded by secession when a group of states didn't like the results of an election in 1860.

 

[TRU2RU]

Take the political bs to the CE board don’t ruin an informative thread with that crap

 

[NotInRHouse]

It isn't worth talking to any such people. Partisan hacks will always say their side never makes mistakes or goes too far (and never criticize anyone on their side unless it's for not being doctrinaire and extreme enough) and they will always say the other side never does anything right--or even admit the other side has good motives. The other side is always sinister.

The right is especially bad with this: EVERYTHING is a communist conspiracy to destroy all that is pure and good, Mom, apple pie and the flag; even a guy putting on a dress is part of the plot! The left often boils everything down to greedy capitalism and white supremacy, which, though greatly exaggerated, are real issues.

It was noted by a US government panel defining fascism in the 30/40s that fascists boil everything down to communism vs fascism, something that sounds disturbingly familiar.

Don't forget how communism also includes Target, Bud Light, the NFL, Starbucks, etc. It's just anyone who disagrees.

 

[NotInRHouse]

The federal vaccine mandate, specifically the way in which it was attempted, was the biggest authoritarian play in the US from a legal perspective since the Patriot Act.

Thankfully our judicial system also agreed.

Weird, because I noticed the judicial system in fact saying states can control women's bodies. And when I say women, that includes girls as young as 10.

 

[brgRC90]

Don't forget how communism also includes Target, Bud Light, the NFL, Starbucks, etc. It's just anyone who disagrees.

Plus doctors and pharmaceutical companies, who are in conspiracy to make money with vaccines and transgender treatments--the kind of thing you normally hear from far, far lefties and a far cry from the longtime right-wing defense of making money--and not at all what communism is. It's insanity.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

 

[RUAldo]

One way to stop the real estate market (short of a catastrophic event) may be to jack-up property taxes. I’ve seen some serious increases in the south where houses went from being sold for $450K/$8K taxes in 2015 to $5M/$50K taxes currently - and those houses are definitely sitting longer.

 

[Joey Bags]

One way to stop the real estate market (short of a catastrophic event) may be to jack-up property taxes. I’ve seen some serious increases in the south where houses went from being sold for $450K/$8K taxes in 2015 to $5M/$50K taxes currently - and those houses are definitely sitting longer.

The WEF put out a piece a while back suggesting pricing people out of homeownership by raising taxes.

But the WEF is a weird group and is generally against private property ownership except for the ultra wealthy and corporate entities (in their model for the future the masses rent from publicly owned real estate corporations).

 

[Knight Shift]

It isn't worth talking to any such people. Partisan hacks will always say their side never makes mistakes or goes too far (and never criticize anyone on their side unless it's for not being doctrinaire and extreme enough) and they will always say the other side never does anything right--or even admit the other side has good motives. The other side is always sinister.

The right is especially bad with this: EVERYTHING is a communist conspiracy to destroy all that is pure and good, Mom, apple pie and the flag; even a guy putting on a dress is part of the plot! The left often boils everything down to greedy capitalism and white supremacy, which, though greatly exaggerated, are real issues.

It was noted by a US government panel defining fascism in the 30/40s that fascists boil everything down to communism vs fascism, something that sounds disturbingly familiar.

You two should get a room in a house of mirrors.

 

[NotInRHouse]

You two should get a room in a house of mirrors.

As long as the room has mirrors on both sides. That's what really important.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Would be HUGE for CRE/in general investment real estate.

Also, its a win-win. Keeps money moving, investment on-going and keeps velocity in the market.

 

[Knight Shift]

Don't want to derail thread, but perhaps @RUskoolie can answer.

Can you recommend a decent apartment complex or other place to live for a single professional in late 30's-to early 40s making in low to mid $100s, within 30 minutes of Metropark. Are rents in the neighborhood of $1500/month reasonable without being in a crap complex? Seeing rents up to $2700 for 1 BRs, which seems ridiculous.

Good areas/towns? Was thinking Edison, Old Bridge, Piscataway, Matawan, Sayreville, maybe Keyport to be closer to beaches/shore. I'm familiar with the area, but not on clean and quiet 1 BR apartments.

 

[Plum Street]

Don't want to derail thread, but perhaps @RUskoolie can answer.

Can you recommend a decent apartment complex or other place to live for a single professional in late 30's-to early 40s making in low to mid $100s, within 30 minutes of Metropark. Are rents in the neighborhood of $1500/month reasonable without being in a crap complex? Seeing rents up to $2700 for 1 BRs, which seems ridiculous.

Good areas/towns? Was thinking Edison, Old Bridge, Piscataway, Matawan, Sayreville, maybe Keyport to be closer to beaches/shore. I'm familiar with the area, but not on clean and quiet 1 BR apartments.

I am not Skoolie . But I am gonna venture 1500 is not gonna get you much , unless the person gets lucky with a small apartment in a two or three family . Those new apartments on route 9 are going for 3k.
I would think for a “decent complex” you might need to look in what some elitists might thing as less desirable towns. I know you can find a 2500k apartment in Westfield in a not decent complex and probably get more bang for your buck in a more eastern part of the county.
1500 is tough in todays market but I am sure deals to be had. I am thinking as you are with Sayreville, keyport maybe as shots here to find it

 

[RUAldo]

Some guy I know just sold his sh!t-box bi-level one car garage gut or tear down on a sloped property in Livingston for like $950K. The real estate market is still a mess.

 

[brgRC90]

Would be HUGE for CRE/in general investment real estate.

Also, its a win-win. Keeps money moving, investment on-going and keeps velocity in the market.

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Speaking as someone who invests in real estate, real estate investors aren't the ones who need help at this point. There are ALWAYS people with deep pockets lining up to invest, even in crappy properties. What needs to happen is simply that it needs to be a whole lot easier to build, especially upwards in major metro areas.

 

[jmc11201]

Speaking as someone who invests in real estate, real estate investors aren't the ones who need help at this point. There are ALWAYS people with deep pockets lining up to invest, even in crappy properties. What needs to happen is simply that it needs to be a whole lot easier to build, especially upwards in major metro areas.

In the boston area, this is 100% accurate. You look at the suburbs around Boston and there is no density whatsoever.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Some guy I know just sold his sh!t-box bi-level one car garage gut or tear down on a sloped property in Livingston for like $950K. The real estate market is still a mess.

If mess means low inventory, then we will have a mess on our hands for the remainder of the decade imo. Average mortgage rate is 3.54%. If homeowners were to buy their EXACT home today with 20% down, their monthly payment would go up by 2-2.5X in most case. Theyre not gonna move

 

[RUAldo]

If mess means low inventory, then we will have a mess on our hands for the remainder of the decade imo. Average mortgage rate is 3.54%. If homeowners were to buy their EXACT home today with 20% down, their monthly payment would go up by 2-2.5X in most case. Theyre not gonna move

What do you think would happen if magically interest rates dropped to below 4%? Would a flood of inventory hit the market? Bidding wars pushing overall prices even higher?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

What do you think would happen if magically interest rates dropped to below 4%? Would a flood of inventory hit the market? Bidding wars pushing overall prices even higher?

Prices would go insane. Theres all time demand on the sidelines right now. Demand wise? We are actually below 2008 levels of purchase apps despite having the largest population of individuals at peak household formation age in US history. If rates go low, people flood off the sidelines

 

[NotInRHouse]

Don't want to derail thread, but perhaps @RUskoolie can answer.

Can you recommend a decent apartment complex or other place to live for a single professional in late 30's-to early 40s making in low to mid $100s, within 30 minutes of Metropark. Are rents in the neighborhood of $1500/month reasonable without being in a crap complex? Seeing rents up to $2700 for 1 BRs, which seems ridiculous.

Good areas/towns? Was thinking Edison, Old Bridge, Piscataway, Matawan, Sayreville, maybe Keyport to be closer to beaches/shore. I'm familiar with the area, but not on clean and quiet 1 BR apartments.

If they're single, wouldn't they want to be around more single people? Most of those are family-oriented for the most part.

How about New Brunswick? Red Bank? Maybe Tinton Falls or Eatontown so they can Uber to Asbury and Long Branch?

Depending on how they commute, the Ironbound or even JC could be a possibility.

 

[RU205]

Prices would go insane. Theres all time demand on the sidelines right now. Demand wise? We are actually below 2008 levels of purchase apps despite having the largest population of individuals at peak household formation age in US history. If rates go low, people flood off the sidelines

If rates drop, how many more houses would need to be on the market to meet demand? How long would it take to for the market to level off?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

If rates drop, how many more houses would need to be on the market to meet demand? How long would it take to for the market to level off?

Tough question. To meet current demand? Probably 2-2.5X more inventory.

1) One way to look at it is that the average days on market nationwide is only 22, historically thats usually on the 80’s.



2) The average home sold last month nationwide had 3.1 offers. So 3 buyers for every home for sale would be one way to view it.



3) Historically we hover around 4-5 months supply. We are currently at 2.9 months. And thats with mortgage purchase apps all the way down at 2008 levels. Theres a tonnnn of buyers on the sidelines who are gonna flood the market when rates touch around 5.5% or lower. Hold onto your pants when rates his 5.5% or lower. Pair that with new construction permits falling off a cliff (near highs all time of units under construction but forward looking, not many new projects starting due to lack of financing).



Anyway, buy now because unless something totally catastrophic happens, theres not gonna be a huge wave of inventory hitting the SFH market any time soon, especially in NJ.

Many people dont realize this but home values from 1870-2015 appreciated at 6.61% annually. A higher number than most people having in their heads. Buy at 75% LTV and youre talking a 26.44% annualized return. It’s how idiots like me get made to look smart because I park money in real estate

 

[Morrischiano]

U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, fell 0.2% in April, the index’s first annual decline since April 2012.

www.wsj.com

 

[Knight Shift]

The Air bnb bubble is bursting in some markets. Fire sales next?

 

[Knight Shift]

more air bnb

 

[RUTGERS95]

for housing to really decline we need lower employment numbers and we need to restrict credit

I admit not taking the supply side into greater consideration this past year

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

for housing to really decline we need lower employment numbers and we need to restrict credit

I admit not taking the supply side into greater consideration this past year

Credit is pretty tigh on mortgage spreads. If we had historically normal spreads right now (172 over 10 year treasury) wed have mortgage rates in the mid 5’s and things would be really wild.

Im not too sold on that employment angle either. So many people have locked in ultra low mortgage rates that their cost of shelter is insanely low. Significantly lower than what theyd be able to move to if they moved. Also we have about 135,000,000 americans employed. Logan Mohtashami who I quoted from the get go on this has run this model.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

The Air bnb bubble is bursting in some markets. Fire sales next?

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Please dont post Nick Gerli stuff lol. Hes a total grifter who makes 100% of his income of his doom porn youtube channel. Turns out he posted incorrect data (he usually does)

I also do believe airbnb is oversupplied and will feel a little pain but gerli is such a clown. As many say, hes called 13 of the past zero housing crashes

 

[Knight Shift]

Please dont post Nick Gerli stuff lol. Hes a total grifter who makes 100% of his income of his doom porn youtube channel. Turns out he posted incorrect data (he usually does)

I also do believe airbnb is oversupplied and will feel a little pain but gerli is such a clown. As many say, hes called 13 of the past zero housing crashes

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Those statistics were tweeted (not rewteeted) by other real estate people, and Cape Cod seems like another place where the market is getting soft. We are feeling it a bit at our beach rental in Belmar, but we are usually full for the season with mostly repeat renters who have rented from us for nearly 20 years.

 

[NotInRHouse]

Those statistics were tweeted (not rewteeted) by other real estate people, and Cape Cod seems like another place where the market is getting soft. We are feeling it a bit at our beach rental in Belmar, but we are usually full for the season with mostly repeat renters who have rented from us for nearly 20 years.

Prices in NJ are up and Cape May had the biggest increase in NJ. Being the least commutable and probably most vacation friendly NJ county would indicate to me this isn't a NJ issue to the extent it is in other places.

Here's how much NJ home prices have really increased since COVID

Buyers flocking to rural NJ, suburbs, driving prices, report says

news.yahoo.com

I can say having been in Arizona recently there's a YUGE bachelorette party contingency there taking up the Air Bnbs and if the post COVID marriage bump is tapering that could affect it alone.

 

[Knight Shift]

Prices in NJ are up and Cape May had the biggest increase in NJ. Being the least commutable and probably most vacation friendly NJ county would indicate to me this isn't a NJ issue to the extent it is in other places.

Here's how much NJ home prices have really increased since COVID

Buyers flocking to rural NJ, suburbs, driving prices, report says

news.yahoo.com

I can say having been in Arizona recently there's a YUGE bachelorette party contingency there taking up the Air Bnbs and if the post COVID marriage bump is tapering that could affect it alone.

First, on Cape May, I don't get it. The other day, I was perusing West Cape May and other towns up the "left coast" of Southern Joisey, and I was shocked at the prices. Unbelievable.

As far as Arizona, I know from Sedona, the locals were in a tizzy about party rentals, and I can't blame them. One of the biggest hot button items is that if trash is not properly disposed of and left outside, the Javelina have a field day knocking over trash cans and feasting on the spoils. They are so primitive looking, and you never want to get near a mother Javelina and it's babies.