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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

In a bizarre real estate twist, a house sold in my neighborhood for almost $1M a few months ago. 4/5 BR 3.5 baths on nice property. Neighbors started noticing a van coming and going and a bunch of guys hanging in the back yard. They check the real estate records and it’s owned by some shell-company. They do more digging and find out it’s a privately owned “sober house”. Anyone ever hear about something like this? The neighbors are going ballistic.
Wow, sucks for them
 
I think I know the general area you live and I’d tell you it’s very likely a sober house loosely owned by an outpatient treatment center. Happens all over NJ now. Bill people for out of network outpatient treatment at about $1500-2k per day, put them up in a “luxury” home and you’ve got yourself a nice payday.
Yeah, I have to imagine real money is being made to spend $1M on a residential sober house.
 
There are folks starting to do these conversions, but from what I have seen these conversions are currently limited to office building owners with little to no debt on the property. The reason is conversion costs are expensive. Think of it like this: a large commercial office building has a central core with restrooms (for example) located in one area of the building. In converting that building in to a rental apartment building or hotel you now need a bathroom in each unit, different electrical runs, new mechanical systems, etc. Plus the floor plates are generally inefficient for an apartment building or hotel.

I think you will need to see further cost compression/cost erosion in the value of office properties and maybe even some property tax relief before you see this type of conversion done at scale rather than "one offs".

NYT did an interesting piece on this w graphics highlight the center core issue you mentioned and used an interesting example of a FiDi building that worked it out. I think the center core could work with a hostel or homeless shelter though.

With the cost of housing being what it is and a lot of foreigners still very much looking to park funds in the US it does seem like there will be a market for high value.
 
Yeah and also because one man sitting in the Oval Office has complete control over the US and global economy.

They also don't realize that inflation is WAY higher in basically every other developed economy on the planet and that right now the US economy is pretty much the strongest in the world.
 
This is interesting because I thought they usually put these in sunny climates. Also not sure it would comply w zoning rules.
Agree - surprised me as well. The neighbors that are directly next to the house and across the street are going on the offensive and contacted the town, mayor, etc. I can’t imagine how a sober house would be allowed in the middle of a suburban residential neighborhood with houses on all sides.
 
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Agree - surprised me as well. The neighbors that are directly next to the house and across the street are going on the offensive and contacted the town, mayor, etc. I can’t imagine how a sober house would be allowed in the middle of a suburban residential neighborhood with houses on all sides.
Someone I know in wall township had this happen. It was an old church or something near the Howell border . Weird neighborhood with single family homes and some mount laurel zoning . I think the church was zoned single family but the town changed it to allow the sober house. I think wall was gonna get ML credits for it too.
Not sure what has happened though , don’t think they actually built the thing .
So I think these types of houses are permitted in many areas
 
I hate to shift this thread but the same chuckleheads now saying the President has no control over what happens with our economy were the same ones demanding a President shut down an invisible virus. At least stay consistent guys.

Anyway back to real estate. The house I told you guys I might list in Perth Amboy went 6% over asking and we turned down 12% because it was never going to appraise. Currently under contract, no home inspection.
 
Also as an aside I am trying to get a construction loan to build a MXU in New Brunswick and multiple banks are telling me they're not doing construction loans right now. A lot of banks out there afraid to lend right now in the multi-family and construction areas.
 
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Also as an aside I am trying to get a construction loan to build a MXU in New Brunswick and multiple banks are telling me they're not doing construction loans right now. A lot of banks out there afraid to lend right now in the multi-family and construction areas.
Why do you think they’re afraid to lend ? Is the housing bubble gonna burst ??
 
I hate to shift this thread but the same chuckleheads now saying the President has no control over what happens with our economy were the same ones demanding a President shut down an invisible virus. At least stay consistent guys.

Anyway back to real estate. The house I told you guys I might list in Perth Amboy went 6% over asking and we turned down 12% because it was never going to appraise. Currently under contract, no home inspection.
Who and what are you talking about? Stay on topic.
 
This is interesting because I thought they usually put these in sunny climates. Also not sure it would comply w zoning rules.
I was gonna say, if it’s functioning as an outpatient facility owned by a healthcare provider it would have to be zoned accordingly.
 
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I hate to shift this thread but the same chuckleheads now saying the President has no control over what happens with our economy were the same ones demanding a President shut down an invisible virus. At least stay consistent guys.

Anyway back to real estate. The house I told you guys I might list in Perth Amboy went 6% over asking and we turned down 12% because it was never going to appraise. Currently under contract, no home inspection.
Did you ask for a max appraisal value or to waive appraisal?
 
Why do you think they’re afraid to lend ? Is the housing bubble gonna burst ??
Mainly interest rates, combined with multiple banks failing because rates rose too fast. Also as an aside, apparently the Biden administration tightened some things with Fannie and Freddie that makes it tougher to get loans on 2-4 unit property (that had to do with another deal I did recently that was murder to get a mortgage for).

If you keep waiting for a housing bubble to burst you are going to be waiting a long time.
 
Did you ask for a max appraisal value or to waive appraisal?
This price point you don't have people waiving appraisal. They don't have money to begin with. A lot of FHA. We got an appraisal cap though.
 
It won’t be owned directly by a treatment facility/company, it will be a shell company providing separation.
Exactly…and apparently the neighbors have found that this guy/company owns 5 other houses in town. They are stalking the white vans that come and go from the houses to the treatment facility. I guess this is the new residential real estate play.
 
Exactly…and apparently the neighbors have found that this guy/company owns 5 other houses in town. They are stalking the white vans that come and go from the houses to the treatment facility. I guess this is the new residential real estate play.

Rep Declan O'Scanlon is a big supporter of these facilities and is a part owner/board member of Seabrook. He's been running this scam for a while.
 
Please tell me you're not this stupid.

The president only controls the economy when it's useful, I know.

Anyway, just enjoy the lowest unemployment since 1969 and the fact that people have the extra money to give for your business. Attribute it however you want, but most people know where it comes from.
 
Down the shore, everything's expensive:

"In Monmouth County, the median sales price in April was $682,500, up 12.8% from the same month a year ago. Sellers got 101% of their list price, down from 104.8% last year, the Realtors Association said.

In Ocean County, the median sales price in April was $500,000, down 0.5% from the same month last year. Sellers got 99.8% of their list price, down from 104.1% last year, according to the Realtors Association."

"There's only six houses for sale in Sea Girt. We used to have 40," Turton said. "Spring Lake we used to have 80. They've got, like, 12. That's what's driving these prices."

 
Also as an aside I am trying to get a construction loan to build a MXU in New Brunswick and multiple banks are telling me they're not doing construction loans right now. A lot of banks out there afraid to lend right now in the multi-family and construction areas.
Multi-family easy to get loans, office nearly impossible
 
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Why anyone would try to build an office right now is the real question. It'd be like asking for a loan to build phone booths or a cassette player factory.
In general yes but some additional office is needed in areas of growth. Like west palm for example.
 
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Why anyone would try to build an office right now is the real question. It'd be like asking for a loan to build phone booths or a cassette player factory.
Im not talking ground up, im talking buying existing.

A prominent nyc broker says nyc office prices are at about 2002-2003 level prices right now and thinks its a good buying opportunity. Hes got more balls and knowledge than I on that one. Office isnt my space. But ive been saying for a decade now office was dying a slow death. covid just happened to speed it up
 
Im not talking ground up, im talking buying existing.

A prominent nyc broker says nyc office prices are at about 2002-2003 level prices right now and thinks its a good buying opportunity. Hes got more balls and knowledge than I on that one. Office isnt my space. But ive been saying for a decade now office was dying a slow death. covid just happened to speed it up

NYC is NYC, and while it may be a lift, an office can be converted to housing or other uses and there's a big push for that now, understandably so.

But I think the days of the NJ office park are long gone. There's a ton of value in the land when it can be made into housing. I cannot see a bank willing to put up the funds to put one up...but turn into homes, hotels, retail, definitely.
 
Why anyone would try to build an office right now is the real question. It'd be like asking for a loan to build phone booths or a cassette player factory.
New office buildings are getting ATH rents. It’s the class B buildings that are in trouble.
 
It’s easy to get expensive loans for MF. Most of these loans are essentially put options to the lender.
Nah. We are selling a deal now that pencils for 70% leverage.

Just invested in a deal 65% LTV 5.10% rate 1.20 tax adjusted dcr.

Multi-family is my space. I cant speak on office though
 
Down the shore, everything's expensive:

"In Monmouth County, the median sales price in April was $682,500, up 12.8% from the same month a year ago. Sellers got 101% of their list price, down from 104.8% last year, the Realtors Association said.

In Ocean County, the median sales price in April was $500,000, down 0.5% from the same month last year. Sellers got 99.8% of their list price, down from 104.1% last year, according to the Realtors Association."

"There's only six houses for sale in Sea Girt. We used to have 40," Turton said. "Spring Lake we used to have 80. They've got, like, 12. That's what's driving these prices."

Yep. No inventory.
Is that colts neck house yours ? Nice pad !
 
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