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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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? Houston has the loosest zoning laws of anywhere in the US. Its what theyre known for. Sucks in MF alot of times due to new supply risk always being a thing
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Good chart. But please tell me you dont follow americas top grifter nick gerli haha
A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors
They were offered the benefits of owning apartment-building rentals without any of the work, in real-estate investments that have already left some people empty-handed.
www.wsj.com
There will be more. This is also when Ponzi schemes get exposed
A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors
They were offered the benefits of owning apartment-building rentals without any of the work, in real-estate investments that have already left some people empty-handed.
Idk how or when, but pain is coming. When’s the last time you’ve seen a chart like that doesn’t end in disaster?
This is true, however there’s still buyers and from a builder’s standpoint we have seen a huge uptick over the last 3 months of contracts. The last month has been nuts! It’s awesome as a builder, I’ll say that much!
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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If u wanna have a good laugh. I met Jay 5+ times. He was one of the biggest snakes Ive ever met. Knew it from the jump. Hed constantly call and email me trying to raise equity.A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors
They were offered the benefits of owning apartment-building rentals without any of the work, in real-estate investments that have already left some people empty-handed.
Checked my old emails, sure enough I have his webinar recording from when he was raising equity. As i said previously, couldve told u these would be foreclosed on from the day he closed on them https://t.co/7Hwzvgb0Wo
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Why do you believe pain is coming? Imo were in a low inventory environment for the long haul which will keep prices elevated. We’d have to have a MJAOR job loss depression to see sfh real estate prices drop considerably.
Redemptions will increase and new capital will be hard to find. This is when Ponzi scheme gets exposed.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Big institutions? Im not familiar with redemptions because they dont exist in my space.
Im skeptical of that as theyre pretty liquid and typically under leveraged
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
1) How many job losses? (i agree we will have a job loss recession not enough to tank the RE market though imo)
2) How much does it raise inventory?
3) How many homeowners wont be able to make mortgage payments?
4) Of the homeowners that cant make their mortgage payments what would you assume their ltv’s are?
5) Where will those homeowners who cant make their current mortgage payments move to?
Just raise the debt ceiling as they always do and no recession is coming.
When do you think it’s coming? How big, how long and to what extent vs 2008?
Always interested in hearing opinions on this - it’s scary to a certain extent but also inevitable
Debt ceiling has nothing to do with it. It’s inflation and interest rates. The latter hasn’t fully played out particularly as it relates to the long end.
Short term debt ceiling has an impact. Once it's raised it won't have a long term impact.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Correct. Syndicates arent liquid. Theyre treated as partnerships. Theres no redemptions during hold period. If there were, thered be no syndicates.
Your money is locked in for the hold period. You get money back through dividends, cashout refi proceeds and ultimately at time of sale when your initial principal is returned plus any appreciation on top of that. The illiquid nature prevents people from being wall street idiots and buying/selling every day they see a piece of news.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Indefinite. Most common projected hold period is 5 years. But over the past 5 years of crazy you were able to hit 5 year projections in 18-24 months in a lot of cases so they were held less years. But if you hit 5 years lets say today and youre on a 10 year loan term, youre probably going to hold a couple additional years til rates come down.
It’s not a stock. Its truly like being a partner in owning an investment property. You sell when it makes sense, theres no gun to your head.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Which is why multi family syndicates historically out perform reit’s. You are compensated for the uncertainty related to hold period and liquidity.
If youre an investor are you saying youd want a sure fire “we will sell in exactly 5 years” and in exactly 5 years its not a good selling environment? Not a personal jab at you but thats the silly wall street mindset
I hate to say it but we need some major event like crypto oblivion or AI job killing to solve housing and inflation problems otherwise we will be stuck in a sideways market and elevated price environment for ever. Not to mention the Fed will not let the stock market run until inflation is tamed which in my opinion is driving money away from the market and into real estate further exacerbating the housing problem. The secondary house market is still like nothing I’ve ever seen. I’m not seeing any price reductions or relief in popular destinations. People simply don’t seem to care what a beach or lake house costs. My buddy bought a shack in the Poconos for $150K a few years back. He thinks he can get $400K for it because buyers will pay almost anything even with rates pushing 7%.
Something will happen, just not sure what. When’s the last time you’ve seen charts like these that don’t pull back? Never.
Question for @kyk1827 @RUskoolie and others who may be knowledgeable in the space: Any guidance on using FHA loans to purchase what would be an owner-occupied duplex, assuming the returns make sense? I’ve read that minimum down payments can be anywhere from 3.5% with PMI up to 25% so not sure about the true minimums. Are there restrictions on geographies, are there better funding options out there, etc.?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Its very hard to have an fha offer accepted these days because A) alot of multiple bid situations B) FHA appraisals arent coming in unless the buyer is financially qualified without the rents from the other units
That’s why I said extension rights. But indefinite with zero liquidity is deal breaker for me.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
eh, it's because you're not familiar with the space. Trust me the GP's sell as soon as they can if it makes sense. GP's don't make money until the time of sale due to pref structures.
What would you believe would be a rational reason for a GP to hold longer than would be reasonable?
A lot HNW capital goes through syndicate deals. Institutional flows through closed end fund with finite investment periods, open end funds with quarterly liquidity subject to market conditions or separately managed accounts where the institution controls entry and exit.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Alot of HNW full time real estate professionals prefer syndicates due to the tax benefits which arent available in alternatives
It is how I got started. In today’s market, you have an uphill battle. What areas are you considering?
I was told about an off market place in one of the well off NNJ towns that has a lot of demand even without the current market. Great likelihood that the place will appreciate but I’ve been trying not to build that into the equation too much. I know the owner but probably wouldn’t get much of a discount if any.
I’m pretty sure it’s a nonstarter because a) if rates are around 7% the other unit would only cover around 40% of PITI without a pretty major rent increase (that the market probably wouldn’t support), b) the 2 units together (in the future) would probably only get to around 80% of PITI without refinancing at some point, and c) given the nature of evictions in NJ I’d probably rather have more than 1 non-owner occupied door if possible.
Not sure if I’m overthinking the above factors or if I’m not being creative enough. The numbers start to make a lot more sense with rates around 5% but I don’t know if we’ll get to that point again anytime soon.
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