There are 2 other important indicators which are still reason to be cautious. The main one is the enormous debt this country is carrying but the media has put a lid on that narrative. Where you used to hear about it miraculously it seems to placed aside.
Buddy I mean this for your own mental well-being. Turn off Fox News for a day, go outside, walk through town, say hi to your neighbors. Fox News will make you believe the world is falling apart at any given time. It’s the narrative of their programming meant to keep their audiences ‘hooked’ for the impending doom that may occur at any minute…. Just take a breath, it’s gonna be ok
Isn’t each geographic location a separate market?
I believe mortgage brokers is a feast or famine profession. I think it gets a significant number of people in boom times that have to leave during busts and come back at the next boom.
The true professional brokers seem to ride it out.
I believe mortgage brokers is a feast or famine profession. I think it gets a significant number of people in boom times that have to leave during busts and come back at the next boom.
The true professional brokers seem to ride it out.
I have been hearing about debt being a problem since I started working.
My greatest concern is the US dollar remaining the worlds default currency.
Until then the debt does not concern me. On a personal level I am debt free.
Without question.
In general, the single biggest determining factor in the price of equal properties (similar square footage, acreage) is the property’s zip code.
Try finding a single family home under $500k in Nashville right now, or literally ANY property with a 90210 zip code… you can’t
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People have been claiming the debt would be the undo-ing of our economy since the introduction of social security. Unfortunately some people tend to sensationalize the thought of a global collapse and consume endless media that ‘the end is near’
Not like the debt people are carrying today. Even you should be willing to understand that issue. Perhaps you are good and carry little to no debt… perhaps you have no car payments…maybe paid a mortgage off but if you really care to know your neighbors, friends , family members all probably have some significant debt. Even those with college debt ( in the USA) is 1.7 trillion.If they don’t pay then the taxpayers certainly will or do you still believe it Is not part of the issue ? I know it’s all made up … untrue…
Ive been licensed since 2011, was named to NAR’s 30 under 30 in 2016. I know a little bit about the field.
Theres no new construction in my markets btw. If there was im sure i wouldve had a banner year. Our team I recently partnered with set our all-time record for sales in 2023 and we’ll close just about $350,000,000 but I can tell you it’s a significantly more challenging market now than at any time since ive been licensed. The people who serve the industry took a bath in 2023
Also just an fyi, home sales went from 6.5 milliom january 2022 all the way down to an annualized sub 4,000,000 this was the single largest home sales crash ever recorded in history. Again, this is not me sharing an opinion, but rather sharing a fact.
Idk what shore areas would be high crime- maybe down by AC, I was thinking Monmouth County, but yes ofc emotion is part of it and then hold on to it for a while. I would rather park my money there than stocks, just my opinion.
It's not overall 30%. Maybe some place local to you raised prices to that extent. It's not a blanket thing.
I mean when I was at RU during GS 1.0 the price of a fat sandwich was $4.50. Even pre COVID it was like 7. Prices increase over time.
Idk. My boomer parents got very tired of the stairs and snow shoveling. Could be that isn't everyone. But I know my parents were insistent my grandparents ditch the stairs as they aged too.
To me, 4 and 5 bedroom homes are a lot of space for 2 people.
You can't find a builder who will build on individual lots? Where are you in New Jersey? please Dm me because I might be able to help!
You gotta think outside the box man, I'm not saying it's not a tough market for professionals in the fields, just that there's AMPLE opportunity out there when you go out and find it.
I'll give you two examples from this year, an unrepresented buyer contacted us about 9 months ago who was interested in a piece of property for sale outside of Berkely Springs WV and whether we would build on it. This was a lot that was currently for sale by a developer that the client did not own. We had no previous relationship with this developer and had only built a handful of houses in West Virginia previously, with no actual communities. Fast forward and last month we settled on a $650k Build that's 50 miles away from our nearest new home community and there was never a buyer's agent involved at any level (Which I personally do not care if there is or isn't as it does not effect my % with my builder). Had a similar situation with my Alexandria buyers, only difference was they HAD representation and that realtor got paid a co-op. We bought the land, built the house, realtor literally did nothing besides brought them to us (I write the contract, go over all the plans, selections, customizations, etc. We have a bit larger blueprint portfolio that we open up than the nationals like Ryan, DR Horton, etc). That realtor walked away with a $16k commission check and we also don't have a community within an hours drive to Alexandria (factoring in DC traffic).
The buyers are out there, my god they are. You just have to think outside the box of just the traditional "Ok lets go look at 5 houses on Saturday, write an offer on our favorite and hope it gets accepted". Pin the customer down, make them fall in love with the idea of homeownership, show them how it's achievable, go to the place where you know the price will be honored... Builders. And no that's not a personal plug, that's just the way to kill it in this market, partner with the builders. Heck if you bring them enough clients they may partner with your firm and bring you on as the exclusive listing agent for the area on top of all your regular clients... wouldn't that be a nice gig to have? The amount of marketing co-op dollars you get makes it worth it all on it's own, let alone the extra income
There's no metric on earth that would have predicted us as a builder to exceed 2022. There was a major inventory shortage back then and rates had made the jump at that point, and yet here we are beating last year! For real I'd love to share some ideas with you on how to make it happen! Nothing makes me happier than seeing my fellow RU family succeed!
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Correct, because the INVENTORY wasn't there as a result of people holding onto their sub 4% rates. What you are missing is the DEMAND never went down for homeownership, there was never a time last year where a single family home priced under $375k in an area that wasn't in the middle of the Pine Barrens didn't sell in a week.
Where so many realtors are struggling is waiting around for the inventory to come back, it's not coming back! Not anytime soon anyway until more and more boomers die off (Not to be morbid, just the reality) or the rate drops back to 3% which also is not likely to happen anytime soon. The beauty though is the BUYERS never went away, they just didn't have the selection to choose from. Reality is a ton of Realtors never even consider new construction. Why would they wanna wait 7 months for a commission if they don't have to? heck I wouldn't! But the reality of the market is dictating a new way. You go where the inventory is, it's really that simple. And if the inventory doesn't exist, build it!
We've had several of the largest real estate firms in the mid atlantic partner with us this year and have performed phenomenally. In one case I have one agent who did $4.3 million in sales with just us last year, I also know for a fact she brought my biggest competitor an additional $3 million in business. This is a gal who'se been in the business 30 years, has been the top of the top in the area for ages (she's on 4 billboards in Silver Spring Md), has almost exclusively focussed on re-sales in rich suburbs of DC (Potomac, Chevy Chase, Silver Spring, etc) and when she couldn't find inventory did over $7 million in new home construction sales as a buyers agent in 2023 alone! You know what that equates to on a co-op, she made 6 figures with just two builders on top of all her other business. Let's chat, I'd love to help you make 2024 your best year yet!
Let's talk real economics... In 2010 an Ounce of weed cost around $300-400. Today an ounce of Weed costs between $100-200.
The subjects that REALLY matter! haha (I'm not actually kidding though, weed prices have come down SO MUCH in the last decade)
Since I never think you should suck smoke into your lungs what is the price of gummies or other edibles?
And my Disney timeshare was about 30% less expensive in 2023 than it was in 2021/2022.
This is a largely unacknowledged fact of the price increases.
As with every other multinational, they did BECAUSE THEY COULD. Commonly referred to as greedflation.
Haha sure. Show me where builders are building new homes for sale in the following towns.
North Caldwell, Essex Fells, Roseland, Fairfield, Caldwell, West Caldwell, Verona, Cedar Grove, Short Hills, Summit, Chatham, Madison
Took about 5 seconds.
Have you reached out to them to see what their process is if you bring them a buyer? Do they own a portfolio of lots? Expect the customer to buy/bring their own? If so what’s their construction perm loan process?
You’re being lazy as an agent with all due respect
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Opinion piece on inflation in NJ by NJ Assemblyman:
Holiday season inflation makes New Jersey more expensive than ever
Inflation in New Jersey is costing you 25% more than the national average, according to congressional data released recently.
www.app.com
What a crazy opinion piece. Six figure income is considered low income. If you are a family of four with no one working can get $109k in government benefits.Opinion piece on inflation in NJ by NJ Assemblyman:
Holiday season inflation makes New Jersey more expensive than ever
Inflation in New Jersey is costing you 25% more than the national average, according to congressional data released recently.www.app.com
You do realize Jim only builds like 3-5 total houses a year on his own account and the majority of their business is renovations and building ground up for end users who bought knockdowns right? We actually know jim well and refer him them to clients looking for renovations and have worked together before.
They didnt build a single home in 2023 that went for sale in the towns I mentioned so try again.
Tell me, where are entire subdivision being built in the aforementioned towns where I can talk to the builder? (Hint: They dont exist).
Youre taking a wrecking ball with total nonsense to an otherwise great thread. Its actually shocking how little informed you are on some very basic things related to real estate.
Have you expanded your search? Have you checked the mls for dead listings/nearby land to build on? What are you doing to seperate yourself from every other real estate agent in the NYC suburbs?
I’m sorry that you aren’t seeing what I’m suggesting in how to have a great year. Please spare me with the idea that inventory was in a better place last year than this when talking about the advantages builders have in this market. We beat last year, how did that happen? We changed our process. You wanna blame it on rate buydowns when the reality is you have every ability to negotiate that into terms for your buyers.
You can say what you want about ‘de-railing’ a thread, what I’m seeing is a weak agent whose flabbergasted by a tougher market than its been the last few years making every excuse known to man.
I’m telling you I know plenty of individual agents who had banner years in 2023. Was that the norm? No, but has it ever been pre-Covid? The top 10% have always done 90% of the business
Our team did $350,000,000 this year, we were #1 in both volume and total units in GSMLS.
But again, im also not an idiot and recognize the realities of the market and that everyone who serves the industry took a bath this year.
I wrote an entire book basically on cold calling.
Opinion piece on inflation in NJ by NJ Assemblyman:
Holiday season inflation makes New Jersey more expensive than ever
Inflation in New Jersey is costing you 25% more than the national average, according to congressional data released recently.www.app.com
NJ has and always will be an expensive place to live. In the current environment lots of people are moving in from NY and well as spreading to formerly less developed areas of the state. It is still cheaper than a lot of other places (NYC and CA among others). And, generally you give up a lot (IMO) moving to other parts of the country. That is just supply and demand.
If politicians really want to make NJ cheaper they could permit a lot more homes to be built to meet the demand. But I see minimal movement. I live in JC and people here even sometimes fight new buildings but then wonder why the rent is high.
How many agents in the firm?
I recognize entirely the excuse making so many ‘professionals’ in the market are making, some of which are legitimate but most of which is simply whining things aren’t the layups they were back in 2021.
The reality is home ownership never stopped being in demand, sure rates slowed things down in the resale market but there was always homebuyers in the market.
I know the Joffy’s well and while this isn’t in the particular towns you listed, it’s not far with several options to choose from
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Three 2024 Real Estate Predictions
1) The Fed's First Rate Cut Will Come in March
On the residential side of the business, once the fed does begin actively cutting along with the potential of the yield curve uninverting we have a chance to see mortgage rates fall meaningfully into the 5's. I predict mortgage rates will end 2024 between 5.375%-5.875%. This will lead to an increasing amount of demand at a time where there are no signs that inventory will increase nearly the same amount. This will put upward pressure on prices and bidding wars will continue to be the norm. I predict single-family home prices will be up 4.5-5% in 2024.
On the 100+ unit multi-family side of things, this will really shorten the distress window of what I believe will be a flash crash of prices. There are 100's of billions of loans maturing in 2024 and with rates coming down, it will make it realistic for some of those to now re-fi. There will still be distress but the window of opportunity won't have as long of a runway if rates do in fact fall. The majority of inventory hits the market in Q1 every year in this space and we are hopeful we'll be able to take advantage.
2) Transaction Volume Will Pick Up
On the residential side of things, as of the November reading on annualized existing home sales, we are at an abysmally low 3.82 million. It is believed by multiple housing analysts that demographically we have built in demand for around 6+ million home buyers between 2020-2024. It is estimated that we have somewhere around 3-4 million additional "sideline buyers" who delayed purchasing homes over the past 2 years due to the rise in interest rates. That along with the built in demand of nearly 6+ million prospective home buyers will provide ample demand for the home purchase market. The question really is, does inventory loosen up allowing all these buyers to buy? It's not likely supply meets demand but more transactions should occur in 2024 than did in 2023.
On the 100+ unit multi-family side of things transaction volume was down as much as 70%! This was almost 100% due to interest rates. No one wants to sell when they believe we are near peak rates. Unless you either had to sell due to a loan maturity or you held for decades and just wanted to exit, very few transactions occurred. 2024 is a different story. 100's of billions of loan maturities are coming up, a lot of which are not in position to be able to re-finance without bringing substantial cash to the table. These will be the opportunities worth taking advantage of. There will likely be very well run properties in excellent locations that simply just hit a maturity wall at a bad time.
3) If Donald Trump Wins in November, 100% Bonus Depreciation Will be Brought Back
There are a few ways 100% bonus depreciation can be brought back. We have the conventional route and we also have budget reconciliation. If it goes the budget reconciliation route, it is likely that SALT no longer will expire in 2025 but rather be extended to off-set the 100% bonus depreciation. If this occurs, it should really provide a boost to commercial real estate prices as net effective returns would increase.
Let's just call a spade, a spade. Donald Trump is a real estate investor, he's going to do things that benefit real estate investors like himself.
Have a happy new year
1) The Fed's First Rate Cut Will Come in March
On the residential side of the business, once the fed does begin actively cutting along with the potential of the yield curve uninverting we have a chance to see mortgage rates fall meaningfully into the 5's. I predict mortgage rates will end 2024 between 5.375%-5.875%. This will lead to an increasing amount of demand at a time where there are no signs that inventory will increase nearly the same amount. This will put upward pressure on prices and bidding wars will continue to be the norm. I predict single-family home prices will be up 4.5-5% in 2024.
On the 100+ unit multi-family side of things, this will really shorten the distress window of what I believe will be a flash crash of prices. There are 100's of billions of loans maturing in 2024 and with rates coming down, it will make it realistic for some of those to now re-fi. There will still be distress but the window of opportunity won't have as long of a runway if rates do in fact fall. The majority of inventory hits the market in Q1 every year in this space and we are hopeful we'll be able to take advantage.
2) Transaction Volume Will Pick Up
On the residential side of things, as of the November reading on annualized existing home sales, we are at an abysmally low 3.82 million. It is believed by multiple housing analysts that demographically we have built in demand for around 6+ million home buyers between 2020-2024. It is estimated that we have somewhere around 3-4 million additional "sideline buyers" who delayed purchasing homes over the past 2 years due to the rise in interest rates. That along with the built in demand of nearly 6+ million prospective home buyers will provide ample demand for the home purchase market. The question really is, does inventory loosen up allowing all these buyers to buy? It's not likely supply meets demand but more transactions should occur in 2024 than did in 2023.
On the 100+ unit multi-family side of things transaction volume was down as much as 70%! This was almost 100% due to interest rates. No one wants to sell when they believe we are near peak rates. Unless you either had to sell due to a loan maturity or you held for decades and just wanted to exit, very few transactions occurred. 2024 is a different story. 100's of billions of loan maturities are coming up, a lot of which are not in position to be able to re-finance without bringing substantial cash to the table. These will be the opportunities worth taking advantage of. There will likely be very well run properties in excellent locations that simply just hit a maturity wall at a bad time.
3) If Donald Trump Wins in November, 100% Bonus Depreciation Will be Brought Back
There are a few ways 100% bonus depreciation can be brought back. We have the conventional route and we also have budget reconciliation. If it goes the budget reconciliation route, it is likely that SALT no longer will expire in 2025 but rather be extended to off-set the 100% bonus depreciation. If this occurs, it should really provide a boost to commercial real estate prices as net effective returns would increase.
Let's just call a spade, a spade. Donald Trump is a real estate investor, he's going to do things that benefit real estate investors like himself.
Have a happy new year
I think 2024 will be a very strong year in the real estate market. Rate cuts are not going to be crazy but I think it will bring buyers in off the sidelines. I would be happy with sub 6% mortgage rates but possibly can see 5.5% average at the end of the year. I'm already seeing the affects of the FED talking dovish and rates falling, a ton of activity on some of my listings in the last few weeks during a typical slow time.
Even if Trump wins that isn't coming back in 2024 (although I wish).
If rates fall like you say, I am putting a shovel in the ground on my small development project in New Brunswick and will build more inventory to help the renters in the city live in nice and new places :)
Long story short, 2024 will be much better than 2023 for many in the real estate industry.
Even if Trump wins that isn't coming back in 2024 (although I wish).
If rates fall like you say, I am putting a shovel in the ground on my small development project in New Brunswick and will build more inventory to help the renters in the city live in nice and new places :)
Long story short, 2024 will be much better than 2023 for many in the real estate industry.
Believe it or not theres already been bi-partisan discussions on extending this, even under the biden administration.
Theres going to be a big push tax incentive wise for inventory development due to the shortage of inventory we have.
From an e-mail from a Realtor:
Monmouth County
#New listings 2022 (244) 2023 (242)
#Sold 2022 (378) 2023 (359)
Avg Price 2022 ($790K) 2023 ($839K)
Ocean County
#New listings 2022 (1498) 2023 (1204)
#Sold 2022 (458) 2023 (353)
Avg Price 2022 ($589K) 2023 ($644K)
Monmouth County
#New listings 2022 (244) 2023 (242)
#Sold 2022 (378) 2023 (359)
Avg Price 2022 ($790K) 2023 ($839K)
Ocean County
#New listings 2022 (1498) 2023 (1204)
#Sold 2022 (458) 2023 (353)
Avg Price 2022 ($589K) 2023 ($644K)
I would be all for it (and I am a broker). The bar needs to be raised in this profession.
Market is nuts for single family.
Someone I know listed in Cranford for 850 and bids up to a million
Someone I know listed in Cranford for 850 and bids up to a million
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