Well, football season's over, which means it must be winter (meteorological winter, at least), so thought some of you might be interested to know that the mild fall we've had is over and it's about to get cold mid-week and even colder next week and likely to stay below to well below normal at least through Day 15 (12/17) or so and possibly beyond.
The global pattern is looking very favorable for occasional lobes of the polar vortex to head down towards the Great Lakes and Northeast US (and even down into the deep south at times), bringing lots of cold air - doesn't mean every day is going to be brutally cold, but some are likely to be well below normal and most to all will be below normal (normal in NB is 47/30F on 12/7 to 42/26F on 12/21).
I'm no fan of predicting specific weather for a specific day beyond 7-8 days out, as the accuracy just isn't there for chaotic systems, like the weather, but predicting general trends for 2-3 weeks out has some accuracy and the 15-day model runs are all showing the cold and most of the long-range forecasters are seeing the same.
So, does this mean we're going to get snow? Well, that's a lot harder to predict, but it's certainly a lot more likely to snow when it's below freezing than when it's not (duh) and the pattern is also showing the next few weeks being active with a series of shortwaves (lows) that will likely at least result in some snow in the area (and probably a lot of lake effect snow), especially in the climatologically more favored, colder, inland locations. The first significant threat of snow (the Weds/Thursday system should be all rain, maybe ending as snow inland) is next weekend, although it's still too far out to predict anything. Crossing fingers, of course.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/758-awakening-long-range-winter-thread-part-2/
The global pattern is looking very favorable for occasional lobes of the polar vortex to head down towards the Great Lakes and Northeast US (and even down into the deep south at times), bringing lots of cold air - doesn't mean every day is going to be brutally cold, but some are likely to be well below normal and most to all will be below normal (normal in NB is 47/30F on 12/7 to 42/26F on 12/21).
I'm no fan of predicting specific weather for a specific day beyond 7-8 days out, as the accuracy just isn't there for chaotic systems, like the weather, but predicting general trends for 2-3 weeks out has some accuracy and the 15-day model runs are all showing the cold and most of the long-range forecasters are seeing the same.
So, does this mean we're going to get snow? Well, that's a lot harder to predict, but it's certainly a lot more likely to snow when it's below freezing than when it's not (duh) and the pattern is also showing the next few weeks being active with a series of shortwaves (lows) that will likely at least result in some snow in the area (and probably a lot of lake effect snow), especially in the climatologically more favored, colder, inland locations. The first significant threat of snow (the Weds/Thursday system should be all rain, maybe ending as snow inland) is next weekend, although it's still too far out to predict anything. Crossing fingers, of course.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/758-awakening-long-range-winter-thread-part-2/
