Because.. Then Rutgers football would have to be undefeated while Hoops would be going to the Final Four....Everyone on this board would then be happy.... That's not allowed to happen for us!! [cheers]
OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Because.. Then Rutgers football would have to be undefeated while Hoops would be going to the Final Four....Everyone on this board would then be happy.... That's not allowed to happen for us!! [cheers]
Don't you have to go out to mass quantities of get milk, bread and eggs to put on those brand "Spanky" new floor boards of your attic?
This is for Metuchen, but is close enough for you - maybe starts 30 min later in Union County. Should be very light and not an issue until mid-morning.
The Alabama papers are worried that the snow won't be cleared away in time for Tuesday's election.
NYC just upped the snow totals again.
Hell, we're already stocked up to make it through the following week once this storms turns into Snowmagedden!
Hell, we're already stocked up to make it through the following week once this storms turns into Snowmagedden!
Shop Rite in Hillsborough was a madhouse...for ONE FRICKIN DAY AND ITS NOT GOING TO BE THAT BAD TOMORROW ANYHOW
Mt Holly still sticking with winter weather advisories for these areas
2-4 inches
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017
NJZ008>010-012>015-PAZ070-071-101>106-090845-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.171209T0600Z-171210T0600Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
334 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania. This is for locations generally
along and northwest of the Interstate 95 and 195 corridor.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.999
2-4 inches
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017
NJZ008>010-012>015-PAZ070-071-101>106-090845-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.171209T0600Z-171210T0600Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont,
Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
334 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY
TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania. This is for locations generally
along and northwest of the Interstate 95 and 195 corridor.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.999
New Disco...
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Snow will continue to fall across the region on Saturday as a low
pressure system moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will be a
heavy, wet snow and as a result we may see some power outages or
downed wires in areas that see heavier snowfall.
Models continue to show the best chance for higher accumulations in
Delaware and southern NJ, where totals of 4 to 7 inches are
possible. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.
A good part of the region will see between 2 to 5 inches with lesser
amounts towards the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey. Winter
Weather Advisories are in place for these areas.
Mixing remains an issue, especially along the Delaware and New
Jersey coasts will limit snowfall totals.
There is potential for some banding to occur with this system. The
models have some disagreement as to the location but there is some
indication that it may occur somewhere near the I-95 corridor.
The snow will continue through Saturday afternoon and into the
evening, and gradually start to taper off as we head into Saturday
night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Snow will continue to fall across the region on Saturday as a low
pressure system moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will be a
heavy, wet snow and as a result we may see some power outages or
downed wires in areas that see heavier snowfall.
Models continue to show the best chance for higher accumulations in
Delaware and southern NJ, where totals of 4 to 7 inches are
possible. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for these areas.
A good part of the region will see between 2 to 5 inches with lesser
amounts towards the Lehigh Valley and northwest New Jersey. Winter
Weather Advisories are in place for these areas.
Mixing remains an issue, especially along the Delaware and New
Jersey coasts will limit snowfall totals.
There is potential for some banding to occur with this system. The
models have some disagreement as to the location but there is some
indication that it may occur somewhere near the I-95 corridor.
The snow will continue through Saturday afternoon and into the
evening, and gradually start to taper off as we head into Saturday
night.
I was just at Shop Rite in Flemington and same thing. The crazies are out buying for the coming Armageddon.
Lee Goldberg is just 1-3 for much of NJU ...about 3 for NYC and the 3-6 line is further south of New Brunswick to the shore and south jersey
Dan Zarrow...101.5 http://nj1015.com/winter-storm-warning-6-things-to-know-about-njs-snow/
3-4 inches for most of NJ with the 5-6 inch amounts south jersey and 1-2 NW jersey
low chance of higher amounts
snow will be heaviest late morning to early afternoon tapering in early evening
will be wet type snow
3-4 inches for most of NJ with the 5-6 inch amounts south jersey and 1-2 NW jersey
low chance of higher amounts
snow will be heaviest late morning to early afternoon tapering in early evening
will be wet type snow
Pretty good model and forecaster consensus on an area-wide (all of NJ, most of eastern PA, NYC Metro, LI, CT, etc.) 3-6" snowfall on Saturday from early morning through about early evening. Temps will be in the low 30s, so roads will likely become snow covered, especially untreated, light travel roads, and especially when intensity is greater, as well as later in the day (after 3 pm), as the sun's indirect influence diminishes. And since this will be a fairly heavy, wet snow, anywhere that gets 6" or more could see some issues with trees/power lines.
Areas along and east of the NJ TPK, towards the Shore, could see some banding and local snowfall amounts up to 8" (except at the immediate coast, where mixing with rain may keep snowfall amounts down a bit), while areas well N/W of 95/TPK (especially Sussex/Warren and the Lehigh Valley/Poconos) may only see 2-3" as they'll receive less precip. No major wind or coastal flooding concerns with this system. NWS maps are below and these are pretty consistent with the couple I've seen from media outlets. Enjoy, but be safe out there. Great snowball/snowman snow...
Edit: it's snowing at a decent clip in Cape May, so I wonder if the accumulating snow will get here earlier than expected...
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My snow removal equipment is all primed at home. Their names are Tyler and Corey!
A friend said many flights were cancelled during the day at Hartsfield, which surprised me, as reports out of Metro Atlanta (and especially the airport on the south side of town, 15-20 miles SE of Marietta, which makes a big difference) were of very little accumulating snow until the early evening. What did you hear/see about snowfall in downtown Atlanta/Hartsfield?
Edit: Hey @RU4Real - I know you're very knowledgable about aviation/airport policies - any idea why they cancelled so many flights to Hartsfield when there was not much snow until mid/late evening? Was it a matter of not wanting to have planes stuck there if heavy snow hit later on?
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That's an absurd forecast, given that the only way to account for that kind of disparity over the span of a few miles is banding, which they can't predict given that it's not actually snowing there yet.
Where are you seeing this? NWS has cut back maybe 1/2-1" across the board, but didn't change the advisories/warnings anywhere (still warnings for about all of South Jersey for 5" of snow), although the warnings will be harder to reach as they noted in their discussion. Now looking more like a 2-5" event for most instead of 3-6", with 1-2" well N/W (Sussex/Warren and the Lehigh Valley/Poconos) and up to 6" towards the coast, especially south of 195 (except at the immediate coast, where there could be mixing with rain). Snow onset will also be delayed by a few hours.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: The dry air near the surface continues to be a
hindrance for snow making the move northward, but it looks like
the process is beginning now thanks to substantial large-scale
lift approaching the area. As a potent vort max approaches the
Mid-Atlantic today, jet dynamics combined with considerable
differential cyclonic vorticity advection will permit widespread
precipitation to develop north into the area. Timing of the vort
max appears to have slowed by 3-6 hours...another reason for the
slower onset of precipitation across the area. However, the dry
air near the surface will continue to pose problems early on in
the event for much if any snow to accumulate north of the
Mason-Dixon Line. The trend of the HRRR and HRRR-X has been
downward with QPF today, though not substantially so. The 06Z NAM
Nest continues rather bullish in comparison but has shifted the
snow banding somewhat eastward. The dry look of the GFS is
worrisome, particularly with considerable precipitation ongoing
in the western Atlantic (which may prevent as much northward
advection of more substantial moisture).
Using an updated consensus blend of the 06Z GFS, 06Z NAM Nest,
several HRRR cycles, the 00Z RGEM/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM, the latest
WPC guidance, and some continuity, QPF went down a few
hundredths of an inch across the area, with most places
receiving up to an inch less of snow than the forecasts this
past evening. This warrants no change to any of the winter
headlines at this point, though the winter storm warning for the
counties bordering the Delaware River looks pretty borderline.
General thinking is aligned fairly similarly to the previous
forecast, with the ramp-up in snow during the next 6 hours and
the best period of accumulation for the CWA this afternoon (into
early this evening). Did slow the increase of PoPs north of the
Mason-Dixon Line a little bit more, but based on latest radar
trends, expecting to see some flakes in the urban corridor
within the next couple hours.
Given the rapidly evolving nature of the forecast given some
short-fused model uncertainty/discrepancies, expect frequent
updates/amendments to the forecast today. Sometimes, higher-
confidence forecasts can deteriorate as the event nears, and
this appears to be a classic case of that.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Vort max will be moving through the region tonight, and the
large-scale lift ahead of it will be shunted eastward during the
evening hours. This should mean a fairly quick west-to-east
progression of the western fringe of the snow this evening, with
the region likely drying out after midnight. End times for the
winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories look OK at
this time.
Snow totals will likely be under 3 inches in the Lehigh Valley
and Poconos, but given the fairly aggressive 00Z NAM output, may
see some marginal advisory-level totals here. Will keep an eye
on this tonight. Meanwhile, 2-4 inch totals look possible for
the urban corridor, with 5+ totals expected south of I-195 and
southeast of I-295 (with increased confidence the farther south
and east you go, at least until the beaches). Confidence in snow
totals is around average, but slightly less than that in the
urban corridor, where the sharpest gradient in snow totals
exists.
Ah, the first bust of the year.
Yes, but they have to draw their lines somewhere and Hillsborough is barely in their 1-3" swath and Princeton is barely in their 3-5" swath. In reality, with TWC forecast Hillsborough would likely get maybe 2.8" and Princeton would get 3.2". TWC is more pessimistic on snowfall amounts with general 1-3" from about the NJ TPK westward (and all of eastern PA, obviously) in most of NJ and 3-5" east of the Turnpike.
Monmouth was never in the warning zone - they were always in the advisory zone, since Monmouth's criterion for a warning is 6", whereas it's only 5" for Ocean and the rest of South Jersey (Burlington/Ocean and south of there; same in PA from Lower Bucks and southward).
There is certainly the potential for a major bust here, but it's a little early to call that, as a few hour delay in the onset isn't that unusual. Let's see if the radar fills in and if Philly still gets the 3-4" forecast from most (but 1-3" from TWC).
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Always good to be prepared , but this looks and feels like a bust so far.
One of the main short range, mesoscale, high resolution models (the HRRR, which only projects out 18 hours) is showing a general 2-4" of snowfall for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with about 2-3" in Philly and along a line running up I-95 in PA and about 3-4" along a line a bit east of the NJTPK to NYC (including NB). This is definitely 1-2" less than was being shown by the global models through late last night.
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