I said Watch, not Warning. 22 hours ago, that's what the Decision Support page was telling us.
OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I said Watch, not Warning. 22 hours ago, that's what the Decision Support page was telling us.
You guys should really just take "it" out, measure and get it over with (but I suggest doing it in the summer in case this season artificially "inflates" the results).
Well, if it's going to be a bust, the NWS just took the next step, in converting the warnings to advisories for SW South Jersey, decreasing forecast amounts from 4-5" to 3-4" in that area (warning criterion is 5" in that area, which they now likely won't reach). New map is up, too. It's snowing with a light dusting here in Metuchen.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mesoscale Discussion #1 8:30 am:
Well, we are having quite the fight with dry air across most of
the region now. Dewpoints are coming in much lower to support
the majority of modeling which is already verifying on the wet
side for locations away from the coast. Banding may help the
snow start sooner at some locations with one just west of the
Philadelphia metro now and another which brought visibilities
down fairly quickly at Atlantic City last hour with a dusting
on the ground.
The snow/rain(sleet) line is currently from Georgetown DE into
Cape May NJ.
Given the trends, QPF and snowfall have both been lowered
through the early afternoon and pops trimmed back quite a bit
through the morning.
A look to why this is occuring is a decent amount of FGEN
forcing offshore in association with convective development. In
essence, the thunderstorms offshore are robbing our region of
more moisture coming into play.
I don`t want to take products down too hastily this morning,
but that is definitely a possibility as we progress through the
morning given the continued drying trend. Many areas look dry
for much of the morning now. The one change made with products
for the mid-morning update was to downgrade counties from Salem
to northwest Burlington along I-295 from a warning to an
advisory.
Mt Holly latest blurb
Well, we are having quite the fight with dry air across most of
the region now. Dewpoints are coming in much lower to support
the majority of modeling which is already verifying on the wet
side for locations away from the coast. Banding may help the
snow start sooner at some locations with one just west of the
Philadelphia metro now and another which brought visibilities
down fairly quickly at Atlantic City last hour with a dusting
on the ground.
The snow/rain(sleet) line is currently from Georgetown DE into
Cape May NJ.
Given the trends, QPF and snowfall have both been lowered
through the early afternoon and pops trimmed back quite a bit
through the morning.
A look to why this is occuring is a decent amount of FGEN
forcing offshore in association with convective development. In
essence, the thunderstorms offshore are robbing our region of
more moisture coming into play.
I don`t want to take products down too hastily this morning,
but that is definitely a possibility as we progress through the
morning given the continued drying trend. Many areas look dry
for much of the morning now. The one change made with products
for the mid-morning update was to downgrade counties from Salem
to northwest Burlington along I-295 from a warning to an
Well, we are having quite the fight with dry air across most of
the region now. Dewpoints are coming in much lower to support
the majority of modeling which is already verifying on the wet
side for locations away from the coast. Banding may help the
snow start sooner at some locations with one just west of the
Philadelphia metro now and another which brought visibilities
down fairly quickly at Atlantic City last hour with a dusting
on the ground.
The snow/rain(sleet) line is currently from Georgetown DE into
Cape May NJ.
Given the trends, QPF and snowfall have both been lowered
through the early afternoon and pops trimmed back quite a bit
through the morning.
A look to why this is occuring is a decent amount of FGEN
forcing offshore in association with convective development. In
essence, the thunderstorms offshore are robbing our region of
more moisture coming into play.
I don`t want to take products down too hastily this morning,
but that is definitely a possibility as we progress through the
morning given the continued drying trend. Many areas look dry
for much of the morning now. The one change made with products
for the mid-morning update was to downgrade counties from Salem
to northwest Burlington along I-295 from a warning to an
The advisory is for 2-4" for Monmouth and the rest of Central/North Jersey. Previously, this advisory was for 3-5" of snow, so it's been cut back a bit, as expected.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
917 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017
NJZ008>010-012>015-025-026-PAZ070-071-101>106-100230-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-171210T0600Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville,
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Atlantic City,
Long Beach Island, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
917 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern
New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
The dry air has been surprising them all morning. You'd think that by now they'd know how snow works.
Kinda too bad, really. I have some traveling to do today and was looking forward to the delightful combination of snow and German AWD sports sedan.
Kinda too bad, really. I have some traveling to do today and was looking forward to the delightful combination of snow and German AWD sports sedan.
Ive been in Flemington before and like the setup...but Hillsborough is a disaster, way too small, always banging carts and for a town that had 3 grocery stores, now 2, everyone goes to Shop Rite and the other two are totally empty.
in fairness to forecasters, I think most modelling was pointing to snow today...and I think some of the lower amounts will verify, its the higher amounts that look to be in serious trouble. I think the weenies on American wx calling for 4-8 inches in NYC and in their backyards were the real people in fantasy land with this storm. They also totally discounted any surface temp issues and trouble with sticking with marginal temps and totally discounted the lower ratios of 7 or 8-1 that Mt Holly was talking about..but weenies going to ween
Hills Shoprite is a big pain in the butt. I have been hearing rumors that with Stop and Shop gone, SR is looking to build at a new location in Hills. Regardless, Monty's SR is much better. Just wait for WF to drop at the upcoming Promenade location next to the Princeton airport.
Truly not trying to be a jerk, here, just wondering if you got sent the wrong info. Only because I never saw Monmouth in the watch zone and was communicating with a friend in Monmouth about that. And bac's post from yesterday morning shows the advisory went up for Monmouth at 5:44 am Friday. Was there maybe a watch on Thursday (I don't recall)?
There is always way too much wish-casting with these iffy storms.
Good post. That's why I was generally saying 3-5"/3-6", which is what the "model average" was and which is what the NWS was putting out. If it ends up being 2-4", that's a minor bust. If it's less than 2" anywhere that was forecast to be 3-5", that's a much more major bust. There is still the possibility of 5-6" where any mesoscale banding sets up, but can't rely on that.
yeah I cant see how they can build at another location given how much traffic it would cause, they should just knock down some of those walls and take over a few stores in the lot they are already in.....hoping that Promenade gets built sooner than later
After a 10-year delay, the stars finally look aligned for the Promenade. 2 of the 3 big tenants are signed, WF is far along in the process, so they are hoping to break ground in the early spring. The design looks amazing. And it includes a 1-acre public green for events and overflow dining.
Golly, a WHOLE ACRE??
lol
I mean, c'mon... ya couldn't make it 2 or 3? Not like you guys are hurting for empty space up there.
May be somewhat of a bust but already starting to stick on Turnpike so let's not all celebrate too soon
At 10:45, it is snowing in Cherry Hill. It is sticking to rooftops and somewhat to the grass, but not to pavement.
Well, time to watch and enjoy for me. Moderate snow in Metuchen with probably 1/2" on the ground and side roads getting a coating already, as temps are down to 32F here. Time for a walk...
And, of course, the latest HRRR, 2 hours later (it runs every hour out to 18 hours), shows a bit more snow again, i.e., a general 3-5" from Philly to NYC. That's why watching these storms is so fascinating to me and why forecasting can be so challenging.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...=asnow&runtime=2017120914&fh=16&xpos=0&ypos=0
An acre of green space in a major retail complex (private land) is pretty awesome, and not common. As for our public open space, 36% of town, about 8,000 acres all preserved. This includes 700 acres in the past several years. And an announcement on another 65 acres coming soon!
Ironically, the developer building the Promenade also runs a main section of the Asbury Park boardwalk. So they are stepping up in quality! :)
No, Skillman section of Montgomery, next to the Princeton Airport. And the open space info is Monty as well.
You guys are late. We got 6-10 inched here in the Atlanta area yesterday. But no this time it didn't paralyze the city like the 2 inch blizzard did around 5 years ago.
sticking to pavement in the last half hour as intensity as increased...thats what it will come down to with regards to accumulating on roads, as long as its moderate it will stick, but when lighter its just grass and car tops. I would think treated highway surfaces should do okay today
At least you have the huge liquor store which took over the old A&P
new Mt Holly blurb
Precipitation has begun to reach the ground across most of the
region. Localized banding has aided in adding moisture to the
the atmosphere over the past couple of hours. It will be
difficult for the snow forecast to indicate the exact locations
of the banding given they are moving around quite a bit.
However, the WSW product may need to be updated this afternoon
with locally higher wording depending how these bands evolve. A
look at the latest HRRR/RAP and the 12z NAM and GFS show the
forecast to mainly be on track from the mid-morning update.
In terms of mixing, CC from KDOX radar shows the mix line with
rain and sleet is advancing slightly to the northwest and should
skirt the coast this afternoon. It is fairly typical for sneaky
warm layers to make it further inland than modeled as well. So
even locations up into the Dover/Millville/ Lakehurst regions
on a NE/SW line may see some mix with sleet as well this
afternoon. We`ll take another look at that with the 12:30 pm
update.
Precipitation has begun to reach the ground across most of the
region. Localized banding has aided in adding moisture to the
the atmosphere over the past couple of hours. It will be
difficult for the snow forecast to indicate the exact locations
of the banding given they are moving around quite a bit.
However, the WSW product may need to be updated this afternoon
with locally higher wording depending how these bands evolve. A
look at the latest HRRR/RAP and the 12z NAM and GFS show the
forecast to mainly be on track from the mid-morning update.
In terms of mixing, CC from KDOX radar shows the mix line with
rain and sleet is advancing slightly to the northwest and should
skirt the coast this afternoon. It is fairly typical for sneaky
warm layers to make it further inland than modeled as well. So
even locations up into the Dover/Millville/ Lakehurst regions
on a NE/SW line may see some mix with sleet as well this
afternoon. We`ll take another look at that with the 12:30 pm
update.
Just came in from a walk about 20 minutes ago - it's a really beautiful snowfall, as it's wet, but not windy, so the snow is sticking to the trees and shrubs perfectly. In the past hour we went from 0.5" of snow to 1.5" of snow and it's covering all paved surfaces, with even county/state roads in Metuchen (531/27) getting slushy, as temps are also down to around 30F. I'm guessing the major highways are still ok, but if this intensity keeps up past about 3 pm, we'll see accumulation even on major highways.
At this point, looking at the short range models and the radar, I'm certain we're going to reach the low end of the 3-6" forecast here and 5-6" isn't out of the question. Places to the west of the Delaware River, south of Trenton, and in NW NJ (Sussex/Warren) and the Lehigh Valley/Poconos might have a tough time reaching 3", although obs are for 2" already in some of those locations and the radar looks pretty good, so maybe 3" or more won't be so hard in those spots. Places within 20 miles of the Parkway, south of about Holmdel, are most likely to get the 5-6" amounts (except right at the coast).
Edit - just noticed NWS updated their map about an hour ago...pretty consistent with their 3-5" forecast.
Last edited:
now it's 1 p.m. in Cherry Hill and the snow, which is light, still is not sticking to pavement. We are under the winter weather advisory until 1 a.m., so a lot could still happen. Temperature is 29 degrees.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DIX&loop=yes
watching that dry slot in south jersey....some heavier bands northwest of 195
pretty unimpressive here in Belle Mead...maybe an inch on the grass and sporadic snow on paved surfaces but only sticking there during heavier periods...all in all rather meh thus far
watching that dry slot in south jersey....some heavier bands northwest of 195
pretty unimpressive here in Belle Mead...maybe an inch on the grass and sporadic snow on paved surfaces but only sticking there during heavier periods...all in all rather meh thus far
The horses are still racing at PARX,Freehold,and Aqueduct,but only because it's Saturday with much more being bet.
