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OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)

These smaller storms tend to be worse for the traffic and what not. Media plays up the big storms so much now people avoid Work and the roads.

This might P*ss of @RU4Real and @bac2therac but I was one of those people that made money from accidents because of the business I was in. These types of storms were the best for the wallet

It's bad for cops, though.

I never minded. We'd pack up the vics and be on our way. The cops always had to wait for the hook and on days like this that could be a long wait.
 
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Why do you insist on downplaying everything? Nobody is saying this is snowmageddon, but there's accumulating snow on the streets in Manhattan and if you look at Google Maps at the traffic, there's not a single major highway in NJ/NYC that isn't orange/red/black - sure, 75% of that is likely just Friday traffic, but it rarely looks this bad and the reason is the snow. Good luck with your street walkers.

Just put him on ignore like everyone else has!

I can't see who he was responding to, but I can guess. My Scarlet Nation experience is blissful without seeing posts from this poster.
 
This was a reverse bust. Two days ago no discussion. Last night 6pm news. A brief mention of flurries. This morning at 5am a complete change. From a traffic standpoint this was way worse than last Saturday. No brine put on the road. No salt until too late. Snow sticking on contact. Not much but slick everywhere.

In the grand scheme of things it was merely a 50-75 mile shift in the track of a storm that still hadn't even formed as of yesterday afternoon (when the 1" line was along the NJ coast) and whose energy sources were well over 1000 miles from here. But yeah, compared to most storms that deliver 1-3" of snow, it was forecast later than usual, as the models didn't pick up on the partial phasing of systems until last night's runs. I like to look at that as an indication of how good the models and mets have become - when I was a kid we were often surprised within 24 hours of an event - now, not so much.

Also goes to show something I've kind of harped on a lot over the years: the importance of timing and temperature on accumulation on major and secondary roads, which goes a long way in determining area impact from a storm. Last week's 3-6" event had a lot more snowfall, but temps were around freezing, during midday on a weekend and not much accumulated on paved surfaces, especially on major roads, whereas today was mostly 1-3" but with temps in the mid-20s with accumulation on all roads right during a Friday afternoon rush hour before Christmas. No contest which was more impactful.
 
What a nuisance storm.
Took 80 minutes to drive from work in Summit to Scotch Plains, roughly 12 miles, leaving at 4:30pm.

Now in our complex so far, mind you for 1.5" of snow, we have had come thru here:
Shovelers
Snowblowers
Plow truck
2 Bobcats.

For 1.5" of snow.
Time to sell the townhouse I guess
 
What a nuisance storm.
Took 80 minutes to drive from work in Summit to Scotch Plains, roughly 12 miles, leaving at 4:30pm.

Now in our complex so far, mind you for 1.5" of snow, we have had come thru here:
Shovelers
Snowblowers
Plow truck
2 Bobcats.

For 1.5" of snow.
Time to sell the townhouse I guess
Now I don't feel so bad about 90 minutes to go 40 miles. Ditched the slow GS Parkway to get onto Route 34. Route 34 sucked. Turned off onto some county roads. Those sucked worse. Should have stayed on the Parkway.
 
Now in our complex so far, mind you for 1.5" of snow, we have had come thru here:
Shovelers
Snowblowers
Plow truck
2 Bobcats.

For 1.5" of snow.
Time to sell the townhouse I guess
Your association gets charged for it, so of course they're gonna be out.
 
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I don't think it's worth a new thread, yet, but keep your eye on a potential rain to snow event Christmas morning (not much snow expected in the I-95 corridor, but could be some well to the N/W). It then looks to get quite cold from about the 26th through at least the first few days of January, with multiple chances for snow (12/28, in particular looks juicy, but it's still 8 days away, so way, way too early to speculate about).

The cold is pretty much a lock; snow, as always, is a bit of a crapshoot, but like I said in the first post in this thread, it's more likely than normal to snow in a cold pattern: and the recent pattern certainly delivered, with 5-10" of snow, so far, in December (9.3" in beautiful Metuchen) for most of the Philly-NYC region vs. 4-5" normal snowfall for the entire month of December for most.

So, most of this week will remain normal to warmer than normal through Sunday (Christmas Eve), with some rain likely from Friday night through Sat night, with Sat highs making a run at 60F. But then it gets interesting. The last several model cycles have seen the forecast get colder and colder for Sunday/Monday and beyond.

Now we're within 5 days of Christmas and it's looking like we may see a coastal storm develop Sunday night into Monday, likely bringing mostly rain to the I-95 corridor, possibly ending as some snow Christmas morning, with little accumulation, as it looks now. However, it's possible this rain will change to snow earlier to the NW of I-95 with perhaps a small accumulation and maybe even a few inches of snow well N/W. And it's possible the storm is suppressed to our south, also. Too early to tell. Only sure thing is that if it snows on Christmas while we're in Florida, you'll hear my screams of anguish in Jersey.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50533-december-model-discussion/?page=13
 
Only sure thing is that if it snows on Christmas while we're in Florida, you'll hear my screams of anguish in Jersey.

The chances of accumulating snow in Christmas Day in Metuchen is zero. Enjoy the warmth. If it's gonna snow at any point while you're gone, @bac2therac and I will salt your entire property so nothing sticks. Cuz that's what friends are for.
 
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I don't think it's worth a new thread, yet, but keep your eye on a potential rain to snow event Christmas morning (not much snow expected in the I-95 corridor, but could be some well to the N/W). It then looks to get quite cold from about the 26th through at least the first few days of January, with multiple chances for snow (12/28, in particular looks juicy, but it's still 8 days away, so way, way too early to speculate about).

The cold is pretty much a lock; snow, as always, is a bit of a crapshoot, but like I said in the first post in this thread, it's more likely than normal to snow in a cold pattern: and the recent pattern certainly delivered, with 5-10" of snow, so far, in December (9.3" in beautiful Metuchen) for most of the Philly-NYC region vs. 4-5" normal snowfall for the entire month of December for most.

So, most of this week will remain normal to warmer than normal through Sunday (Christmas Eve), with some rain likely from Friday night through Sat night, with Sat highs making a run at 60F. But then it gets interesting. The last several model cycles have seen the forecast get colder and colder for Sunday/Monday and beyond.

Now we're within 5 days of Christmas and it's looking like we may see a coastal storm develop Sunday night into Monday, likely bringing mostly rain to the I-95 corridor, possibly ending as some snow Christmas morning, with little accumulation, as it looks now. However, it's possible this rain will change to snow earlier to the NW of I-95 with perhaps a small accumulation and maybe even a few inches of snow well N/W. And it's possible the storm is suppressed to our south, also. Too early to tell. Only sure thing is that if it snows on Christmas while we're in Florida, you'll hear my screams of anguish in Jersey.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50533-december-model-discussion/?page=13


boy you really are trying hard to make it snow

don't worry I'm going to let the water out of your snowglobe so we won't have to worry about that possibility
 
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I don't think it's worth a new thread, yet, but keep your eye on a potential rain to snow event Christmas morning (not much snow expected in the I-95 corridor, but could be some well to the N/W). It then looks to get quite cold from about the 26th through at least the first few days of January, with multiple chances for snow (12/28, in particular looks juicy, but it's still 8 days away, so way, way too early to speculate about).

The cold is pretty much a lock; snow, as always, is a bit of a crapshoot, but like I said in the first post in this thread, it's more likely than normal to snow in a cold pattern: and the recent pattern certainly delivered, with 5-10" of snow, so far, in December (9.3" in beautiful Metuchen) for most of the Philly-NYC region vs. 4-5" normal snowfall for the entire month of December for most.

So, most of this week will remain normal to warmer than normal through Sunday (Christmas Eve), with some rain likely from Friday night through Sat night, with Sat highs making a run at 60F. But then it gets interesting. The last several model cycles have seen the forecast get colder and colder for Sunday/Monday and beyond.

Now we're within 5 days of Christmas and it's looking like we may see a coastal storm develop Sunday night into Monday, likely bringing mostly rain to the I-95 corridor, possibly ending as some snow Christmas morning, with little accumulation, as it looks now. However, it's possible this rain will change to snow earlier to the NW of I-95 with perhaps a small accumulation and maybe even a few inches of snow well N/W. And it's possible the storm is suppressed to our south, also. Too early to tell. Only sure thing is that if it snows on Christmas while we're in Florida, you'll hear my screams of anguish in Jersey.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50533-december-model-discussion/?page=13
Can you give me a Christmas Day weather forecast for Sedona, Arizona, please?
 
I won't care about the snow next winter because the tax cut will enable me to join a gym with an indoor track.2015 was terrible.Tracks were closed 10-11 weeks.
 
Could be an inch or two of snow Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of 80, with maybe a dusting in Central Jersey. Some additional chances for precip next Friday (doesn't look like much now) and then maybe around the 24th/25th, but that's way off and not worth thinking about.
New system/storm...new thread.

Thought we came to an agreement on that? :(
 
New system/storm...new thread.

Thought we came to an agreement on that? :(

We did. If this looks like a real threat by tomorrow, I'll start a thread. For now, odds are low for measurable snow on 12/25 outside of the Poconos/Catskills and points further N than that, so no real point in a new thread yet. But man, the models are showing some serious snow in the 28th to 30th timeframe - huge uncertainty 8-9 days out, but if the threat still looks real by this weekend, it will deserve a new thread.
 
The chances of accumulating snow in Christmas Day in Metuchen is zero. Enjoy the warmth. If it's gonna snow at any point while you're gone, @bac2therac and I will salt your entire property so nothing sticks. Cuz that's what friends are for.

boy you really are trying hard to make it snow

don't worry I'm going to let the water out of your snowglobe so we won't have to worry about that possibility

Wow, I'm touched, lol. I'll also be really surprised if we see more than some mood flakes anywhere SE of the Poconos/Catskills on Christmas, but given it was looking like a torch on Christmas 3-4 days ago, the fact that there's a small chance of some snow is a minor miracle. As I just said in another post, the real show is likely to be mid/late next week.
 
We did. If this looks like a real threat by tomorrow, I'll start a thread. For now, odds are low for measurable snow on 12/25 outside of the Poconos/Catskills and points further N than that, so no real point in a new thread yet. But man, the models are showing some serious snow in the 28th to 30th timeframe - huge uncertainty 8-9 days out, but if the threat still looks real by this weekend, it will deserve a new thread.
Thank you.

As you were...
 
We did. If this looks like a real threat by tomorrow, I'll start a thread. For now, odds are low for measurable snow on 12/25 outside of the Poconos/Catskills and points further N than that, so no real point in a new thread yet. But man, the models are showing some serious snow in the 28th to 30th timeframe - huge uncertainty 8-9 days out, but if the threat still looks real by this weekend, it will deserve a new thread.

I hope it's not that bad by the 30th. Planning to drive down to Charlotte to spend New Years with my Dad.
 
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