OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)

[bac2therac]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
451 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-141500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-171214T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe,
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
451 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning commute. Additional snow
accumulations of up to one inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northwest New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slick roads can be expected for the morning
commute. Use extra caution traveling. Be prepared for reduced
visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

 

[DJ Spanky]

Had about 1-2" of light powdery stuff on the ground this morning - light enough to be swept off the stairs with a broom.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Sheeze, since I cleaned off the driveway and cars we've now got at least another 1/2" down.

 

[RU4Real]

.75" and it's done.

 

[IL Lusciato]

Still snowing in Newark, and we have a fair amount on the ground. Side roads white, main roads clean.

 

[rurichdog]

1 inch in Hamilton.
Of course there will be a 3.5 lollipop in Metuchen. Come on man, stop reading the metric side of your ruler as inches.

 

[bac2therac]

this had very little effect on the commute, main roads were treated were just wet as the main bulk of snow ended in the wee hours before the last very light band came through. Hot spot so far was Bethleham Twp in Hunterdon County reporting 3 inches. Most of us were in the 1 inch to some 2 inch range

 

[RU848789]

Ended up with 1.5". Pretty good forecast by the NWS, as most locations in PA/NJ/NY with advisories got at least 1-2" and most of the NW areas (NW NJ/Poconos/Lehigh Valley), got 2-3", as expected. Sidestreets/sidewalks were very slippery this morning, but any well traveled road was generally just wet; where there was more snow, to the NW, there were reports of snow-covered county/secondary roads, but I didn't hear anything bad about major highways.

From NWS-Philly:

NEW JERSEY

...Atlantic County...
Estell Manor 1.4 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
ATLANTIC CITY INTL A 1.3 700 AM 12/14 ASOS
1 NNW Pinehurst 0.7 616 AM 12/14 Newspaper

...Burlington County...
Medford Lakes 1.2 800 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Mount Holly 1.2 100 AM 12/14 Official NWS Obs
Medford 1.1 554 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Mount Laurel 1.1 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
4 S Evesham 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Florence 1.0 100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Red Lion 1.0 617 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
2 E Burlington 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Camden County...
Voorhees 1.0 1242 AM 12/14 Social Media
Mount Ephraim 1.0 657 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Cape May County...
Belleplain 1.8 803 AM 12/14 Amateur Radio
Woodbine 1.5 803 AM 12/14 Amateur Radio
Green Creek 1.5 801 AM 12/14 Amateur Radio
Seaville 1.3 607 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
2 NW Cape May 0.5 1200 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Cumberland County...
Vineland 1.0 100 AM 12/14 Social Media

...Gloucester County...
5 E Elmer 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Green Tree 1.0 1200 AM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE Monroe Twp. 0.8 645 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Sewell 0.8 608 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

...Hunterdon County...
3 SW Hampton 3.0 600 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Lebanon 2.5 806 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Whitehouse Station 2.0 518 AM 12/14 Social Media
3 WNW White House St 2.0 730 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
3 ENE High Bridge 2.0 530 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
2 SSE Annandale 2.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Wertsville 1.2 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Mercer County...
Ewing Twp. 1.5 715 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 W Hightstown 1.5 600 AM 12/14 Social Media
1 ENE Princeton 1.4 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
4 NE Trenton 1.4 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
2 SSW Lawrence Twp. 1.1 735 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Ewing 1.1 1235 AM 12/14 NWS Employee
2 NW Hopewell Twp. 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 NE Washington Cros 1.0 715 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
3 NNW Trenton 0.9 1159 PM 12/13 CoCoRaHS
2 W Hightstown 0.8 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Middlesex County...
East Brunswick Twp 1.3 600 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
8 ENE South Brunswic 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 NNE Woodbridge Twp 1.0 600 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
2 ESE Rahway 0.8 546 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Monmouth County...
Freehold 1.5 249 AM 12/14 Social Media
9 NE Lakehurst 1.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Brielle 1.0 730 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
2 SW Long Branch 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 SW Long Branch 0.9 602 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Morris County...
Green Pond 2.5 748 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
4 W Washington Twp. 2.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Mount Arlington 2.0 730 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
7 ESE Stanhope 2.0 600 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Butler 1.9 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Boonton NW 1.8 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Hanover 1.8 800 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
2 ESE Denville Twp 1.7 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
3 S Green Pond 0.2 800 AM 12/13 CoCoRaHS

...Ocean County...
3 SSE Berkeley Twp. 1.3 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Lakehurst 1.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
9 ESE Lakehurst 1.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
6 E Lacey Twp. 1.1 530 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Waretown 1.1 150 AM 12/14 Social Media
Point Pleasant Beach 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
2 N Brick Twp. 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Salem County...
2 N Rosenhayn 0.9 500 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Somerset County...
Basking Ridge 2.1 715 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Bernards Twp. 2.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
4 SSE Martinsville 1.6 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
3 NE Franklin Twp. 1.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Millstone River At B 1.1 616 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Sussex County...
2 SW Wantage Twp. 2.3 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 SE Sussex 2.3 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
3 SW Ogdensburg 2.1 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Montague 2.1 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Highland Lake 2.0 823 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Wantage 2.0 620 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Highland Lakes 1.7 536 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
1 S Vernon Valley 1.5 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
4 SW Wantage 1.2 448 AM 12/14 NWS Employee

...Warren County...
2 E Alpha 2.7 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Bridge 2.6 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
Allamuchy 2.4 800 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Hackettstown 2.1 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Riegelsville 2.0 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

PENNSYLVANIA

...Berks County...
Hamburg 1.5 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
4 SW Reading 0.9 1200 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Bucks County...
3 NNE Langhorne 1.2 630 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Penndel 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Furlong 1.0 1200 AM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER

...Carbon County...
4 NE Lehighton 2.2 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Chester County...
Malvern 2.0 235 AM 12/14 Social Media
Berwyn 1.5 726 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
3 NE Chester Springs 1.4 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 SSW East Nantmeal 1.3 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Glenmoore 1.2 1139 PM 12/13 Social Media
Pughtown 1.2 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
1 NNW Snowdenville 1.2 1116 PM 12/13 Trained Spotter
3 W West Grove 1.1 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Downingtown 1.0 1114 PM 12/13 Trained Spotter
2 SE West Chester 0.6 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Delaware County...
Wayne 1.8 627 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Chadds Ford 1.6 1200 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Garnet Valley 1.5 731 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Norwood 1.0 600 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

...Lehigh County...
New Tripoli 2.0 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
LEHIGH VALLEY INTL A 1.9 700 AM 12/14 ASOS
1 SSW Waldheim Park 0.8 1230 AM 12/14 Broadcast Media

...Monroe County...
Pocono Summit 3.0 616 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Jackson 0.8 1241 AM 12/14 Social Media
Mount Pocono 0.3 800 AM 12/13 overnight

...Montgomery County...
North Wales 2.3 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Montgomeryville 2.1 416 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Pottstown 2.0 624 AM 12/14 Social Media
Site 2 2.0 700 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
Graterford 2.0 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Eagleville 1.8 530 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
2 NW Blue Bell 1.5 750 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Wynnewood 1.5 130 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
1 WSW North Wales 1.5 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Gilbertsville 1.3 627 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Wyncote 1.0 745 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS

...Northampton County...
Nazareth 2.7 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Martins Creek 2.6 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Bushkill Center 2.0 400 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Tatamy 2.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Easton/phillipsburg 1.2 600 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Philadelphia County...
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 1.4 700 AM 12/14 ASOS
5 NE Philadelphia 1.0 700 AM 12/14 CoCoRaHS
Philadelphia OEM 1.0 1200 AM 12/14 Emergency Manager

From NWS-NYC:

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
Ridgewood 2.2 845 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

...Eastern Union County...
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.5 650 AM 12/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...Hudson County...
Harrison 1.5 815 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Passaic County...
Hawthorne 2.2 800 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Wayne 1.8 815 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

NEW YORK

...Bronx County...
Morris Park 1.2 615 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

...Kings County...
Sheepshead Bay 1.0 900 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

...Nassau County...
Plainview 2.0 800 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Farmingdale 2.0 800 AM 12/14 NWS Employee

...New York County...
CENTRAL PARK 1.2 700 AM 12/14 Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
Monroe 2.3 740 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Westtown 2.1 900 AM 12/14 Social Media

...Putnam County...
Carmel 1.3 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer

...Queens County...
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 1.1 650 AM 12/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
NYC/LA GUARDIA 0.9 650 AM 12/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...Suffolk County...
Sound Beach 2.3 900 AM 12/14 NWS Employee
Orient 2.0 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
Eastport 2.0 900 AM 12/14 Public
Upton 1.8 930 AM 12/14 NWS Employee
Baiting Hollow 1.5 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
Bridgehampton 1.4 800 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
Farmingville 1.4 720 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter
Centerport 1.3 750 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer
ISLIP AIRPORT 1.0 650 AM 12/14 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...Westchester County...
Harrison 2.5 830 AM 12/14 Public
Armonk 1.4 830 AM 12/14 Public
Somers 1.2 900 AM 12/14 Social Media

 

[RU4Real]

It's already gone, here, except on grassy surfaces. The sun has melted everything on pavement and roads are drying out.

 

[mdk01]

this had very little effect on the commute, main roads were treated were just wet as the main bulk of snow ended in the wee hours before the last very light band came through.

Not so in Bergen County prior to 9AM. Route 4 was in mediocre shape and slowed things down. Local roads varied by town.

 

[RU848789]

1 inch in Hamilton.
Of course there will be a 3.5 lollipop in Metuchen. Come on man, stop reading the metric side of your ruler as inches.

8.125" - didn't need a ruler or even my hands.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Ended up with another inch and a half, putting us over 3 inches.

 

[T2Kplus10]

this had very little effect on the commute, main roads were treated were just wet as the main bulk of snow ended in the wee hours before the last very light band came through. Hot spot so far was Bethleham Twp in Hunterdon County reporting 3 inches. Most of us were in the 1 inch to some 2 inch range

Yup, it was a non-event for us. No delays, no shoveling, no plowing.

 

[Rutgers1976]

Got about 2" in New Providence. Easy to clean up, though.

 

[Plum Street]

Ru numbers,

Always appreciate these threads ....when was the last time we had a white Christmas In New Jersey ? I remember some snow on Christmas Eve 3 years ago or so. But can’t remember when /If we had shoveable snow on Christmas Day

 

[sport2231]

Looks like another small storm is trying to do something in the next 24-36 hours now

 

[bac2therac]

yes sneaky storm is right....some models are coming in with solutions that could give 1-3 inches across most of the area not just south jersey,.,,lets see what Euro says tonight and the overnight gfs/nam models to really see if this is headed toward another snowfall for the area. It could be snowing as early as mid to late afternoon if this happens

 

[RU848789]

yes sneaky storm is right....some models are coming in with solutions that could give 1-3 inches across most of the area not just south jersey,.,,lets see what Euro says tonight and the overnight gfs/nam models to really see if this is headed toward another snowfall for the area. It could be snowing as early as mid to late afternoon if this happens

Yep, last night's model runs came in much wetter/snowier with winter weather advisories up for all the counties south of 276/195 in PA/NJ for 1-3" of snow this afternoon and evening. With temps below freezing, generally, and most of the precip failling after 4 pm (with little influence from the sun), untreated roads will likely become slippery, which is not a good thing for a Friday night rush hour.

Snowfall amounts are expected to be 1" or maybe up to 2" from 195 to the Raritan and from the NJ TPK eastward, north of NB, including NYC/LI. Snowfall amounts are forecast to be less than 1" north of the Raritan, with not much at all N of 78, especially the further west one goes from the TPK. Obviously, any small shifts in the storm's track could change these amounts.

This is a pretty minor event for most of Central Jersey and a mostly non-event for North Jersey, but it's a modest event for South Jersey/Philly. Maps below.

 

[RU848789]

Ru numbers,

Always appreciate these threads ....when was the last time we had a white Christmas In New Jersey ? I remember some snow on Christmas Eve 3 years ago or so. But can’t remember when /If we had shoveable snow on Christmas Day

Depends where you are, obviously. Since NYC is a good indicator for at least the NB to NYC corridor and reasonably close by areas in NJ, here's a post from a guy, uncle W, on AmericanWx, with the entire history of NYC snowfalls on Christmas. 2002 was my favorite, as we got 6" or so Christmas afternoon, after the rain changed to snow and it pounded snow for hours.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/38399-im-dreaming-of-a-white-christmas/?page=14#comment-4341535

Greatest White Christmas's in NYC...
Snow cover on Christmas morning ...
snowfalls that started after that don't count...1883 probably had the snowiest Christmas with over 12" on the ground and 5 more inches Christmas day...1912 had 11.4" snowfall on 12/24...11" was on the ground Christmas morning...
year...snow on ground...dates of storms...
since 1910....

1876.....1"

1880.....1-2".....

1883...12"+......5" 12/25

1884.....3".......3" 12/24

1892.....trace...

1896.....1-2".....

1902.......6.5" 12/25...

1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25...

1908.....trace........

1909.......7" 12/25...
1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24
1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21...
1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17.....
1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17
1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25
1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25
1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23
1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24...
1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26
1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night...
1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23
1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20
1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22
1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22
1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19
1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24
1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night...
1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12
1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21
1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night...
1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23
1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night...
1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23
1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24
1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25
1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9...
1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24
2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20
2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain...
2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night...

 

[RUhasarrived]

It was coming down pretty good in 1962 as I left morning Mass.Maybe it turned to rain later.

 

[bac2therac]

I do not remember 2002 at all, at what point did it snow during the day...was it late at night

It is very strange how little snow has actually fallen on Christmas itself.incredibly rare

 

[RU848789]

I do not remember 2002 at all, at what point did it snow during the day...was it late at night

It is very strange how little snow has actually fallen on Christmas itself.incredibly rare

I remember that one quite well, as we were hosting Christmas with my mom and my sister's family and I intentionally moved dinner up to about 1 pm, as they were all planning to head back down to South Jersey (where my mom still lived at the time) after dinner to visit friends, and I didn't want them traveling through the snow. We were done by 2 pm, they left a little after that and the heavy rain changed over to heavy snow by 3 pm - they only caught a bit of the snow at the end of their drive.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/25-Dec-02.html

 

[Zak57]

So when is this event supposed to start today and will afternoon commute be a problem?

 

[RU848789]

The latest short range, mesoscale models (HRRR and the Canadian RGEM) show the 2" snow line running right up the Turnpike from Philly to NYC, with all of the snow falling between 3 pm and 8 pm, and we're in the range where these models are best, altough they're nowhere near infallible. They also generally show 2-4" SE of that line. Global models (Euro, GFS, UK, CMC, etc.) will be out between 10 am and 1 pm (with t=0 data from 7 am EST or 12Z).

 

[RU848789]

So when is this event supposed to start today and will afternoon commute be a problem?

It's in my first note on this and the quick update I just posted. About a 3 pm start time for most and it should only be a 6 hour event, roughly, and yes, if we get moderate snow with 1-2" falling during the afternoon rush, it could be a mess, even if just because of lowered visibility. In addition, temps will be below 30F (except right at the coast) and most of the snow should fall near/after sunset, so there won't be melting due to indirect sunlight, meaning any untreated roads will see some accumulation. And if the storm overperforms (possible, especially south of 195), this could become a real mess on a very busy travel/shopping day.

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly latest blurb...its mainly a 3-7PM event



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF...Focus at the beginning of the shift has been on
timing (both onset and ending) of snow and messaging impact for
this quick hitting event this afternoon and evening. Based on
upstream observations and the latest available guidance (12Z
guidance is starting to come in as we speak), snowfall is
expected to develop right over the area (Delmarva/SE PA/SW NJ)
between 1 and 3 PM, then quickly expand north/eastward toward
the I-78 and possibly I-80 corridor between 3 and 4 PM. The
experimental wintry precipitation onset graphic has been updated
and sent to our winter weather webpage. The back end of the
snow looks to progress rather quickly eastward between around 4
PM (near Reading, PA) and 8 PM (coastal NJ).

Here is the key message- The ingredients are there for the snow
to have a high impact on travel regardless of snowfall amounts
(1-3" in the Winter Weather Advisory area; less to the north and
west):

(1) The period of steadiest/heaviest snow is expected to occur
during the 3-6 PM time frame, aligning with the afternoon/
evening rush hour.

(2) With cold air in place (both road and air temperatures will
be at or below freezing across most of the area except southern
DE), snow will stick on untreated roads and possibly even
treated highways in a few spots where heavier snowfall rates
occur.

(3) There is a potential for locally higher snowfall rates of 1"
per hour and poor visibility to occur underneath a narrow band
of heavier snow. There is high confidence that a heavy snow
band (brief in duration) does develop given the pattern but
there is still uncertainty on the exact location. The greatest
signal for mesoscale banding is across the southern half of NJ
between the NJ Turnpike and the Garden State Parkway but it
could develop as far west as the I-95 corridor and as far east
as the NJ/DE coast).


A Special Weather Statement was issued for most of the forecast
area that is outside of the Winter Advisory area since some
impacts on the commute home this afternoon/evening will likely
occur.

The next focus with the forecast late this morning will be on
snowfall accumulations and updates to the Winter Weather
Advisory headlines. Locally higher amounts of 3-4" are not out
of the question underneath the mesoscale band (again, most
likely to occur in southern/central NJ). Even though Winter Weather
Advisory criteria is higher, there is also a potential need to
expand the advisory northward into central NJ (especially
Monmouth County).

 

[RU848789]

Latest discussion from the NWS...don't sleep on this one...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF...Focus at the beginning of the shift has been on
timing (both onset and ending) of snow and messaging impact for
this quick hitting event this afternoon and evening. Based on
upstream observations and the latest available guidance (12Z
guidance is starting to come in as we speak), snowfall is
expected to develop right over the area (Delmarva/SE PA/SW NJ)
between 1 and 3 PM, then quickly expand north/eastward toward
the I-78 and possibly I-80 corridor between 3 and 4 PM. The
experimental wintry precipitation onset graphic has been updated
and sent to our winter weather webpage. The back end of the
snow looks to progress rather quickly eastward between around 4
PM (near Reading, PA) and 8 PM (coastal NJ).

Here is the key message- The ingredients are there for the snow
to have a high impact on travel regardless of snowfall amounts
(1-3" in the Winter Weather Advisory area; less to the north and
west):

(1) The period of steadiest/heaviest snow is expected to occur
during the 3-6 PM time frame, aligning with the afternoon/
evening rush hour.

(2) With cold air in place (both road and air temperatures will
be at or below freezing across most of the area except southern
DE), snow will stick on untreated roads and possibly even
treated highways in a few spots where heavier snowfall rates
occur.

(3) There is a potential for locally higher snowfall rates of 1"
per hour and poor visibility to occur underneath a narrow band
of heavier snow. There is high confidence that a heavy snow
band (brief in duration) does develop given the pattern but
there is still uncertainty on the exact location. The greatest
signal for mesoscale banding is across the southern half of NJ
between the NJ Turnpike and the Garden State Parkway but it
could develop as far west as the I-95 corridor and as far east
as the NJ/DE coast).


A Special Weather Statement was issued for most of the forecast
area that is outside of the Winter Advisory area since some
impacts on the commute home this afternoon/evening will likely
occur.

The next focus with the forecast late this morning will be on
snowfall accumulations and updates to the Winter Weather
Advisory headlines. Locally higher amounts of 3-4" are not out
of the question underneath the mesoscale band (again, most
likely to occur in southern/central NJ). Even though Winter Weather
Advisory criteria is higher, there is also a potential need to
expand the advisory northward into central NJ (especially
Monmouth County).

 

[RU848789]

NWS extended the advisories up to Monmouth, Mercer and Middlesex Counties for 1-3" of snow, w ith the high end of that (and locally 4") most likely to be in interior South Jersey, south of 195, but a bit away from the coast and far SJ, where some mixing may occur) Updated map, below.

Edit: NWS in NYC just extended advisories for 1-3" to NYC and Hudson County in NJ; the rest of NJ north of Mercer/Middlesex is not in the advisory, but should still get maybe an inch or perhaps 2".

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=winter weather advisory

 

[DJ Spanky]

I'm supposed to go to my bosses tonight for our company party - he hosts it each year. The problem is that he's up in the hills in Califon, and I don't have a car available with good tires right now.

 

[bac2therac]

I'm supposed to go to my bosses tonight for our company party - he hosts it each year. The problem is that he's up in the hills in Califon, and I don't have a car available with good tires right now.

thats an area that may be too far west to get anything more than an inch

 

[RU848789]

thats an area that may be too far west to get anything more than an inch

Yes, but every storm so far this year has over-produced to the N/W and that's been the model trend with this one, too, so I'd at least advise watching the radar to see if this one also overperforms.

 

[RU4Real]

Latest discussion from the NWS...don't sleep on this one...

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF...Focus at the beginning of the shift has been on
timing (both onset and ending) of snow and messaging impact for
this quick hitting event this afternoon and evening. Based on
upstream observations and the latest available guidance (12Z
guidance is starting to come in as we speak), snowfall is
expected to develop right over the area (Delmarva/SE PA/SW NJ)
between 1 and 3 PM, then quickly expand north/eastward toward
the I-78 and possibly I-80 corridor between 3 and 4 PM. The
experimental wintry precipitation onset graphic has been updated
and sent to our winter weather webpage. The back end of the
snow looks to progress rather quickly eastward between around 4
PM (near Reading, PA) and 8 PM (coastal NJ).

Here is the key message- The ingredients are there for the snow
to have a high impact on travel regardless of snowfall amounts
(1-3" in the Winter Weather Advisory area; less to the north and
west):

(1) The period of steadiest/heaviest snow is expected to occur
during the 3-6 PM time frame, aligning with the afternoon/
evening rush hour.

(2) With cold air in place (both road and air temperatures will
be at or below freezing across most of the area except southern
DE), snow will stick on untreated roads and possibly even
treated highways in a few spots where heavier snowfall rates
occur.

(3) There is a potential for locally higher snowfall rates of 1"
per hour and poor visibility to occur underneath a narrow band
of heavier snow. There is high confidence that a heavy snow
band (brief in duration) does develop given the pattern but
there is still uncertainty on the exact location. The greatest
signal for mesoscale banding is across the southern half of NJ
between the NJ Turnpike and the Garden State Parkway but it
could develop as far west as the I-95 corridor and as far east
as the NJ/DE coast).


A Special Weather Statement was issued for most of the forecast
area that is outside of the Winter Advisory area since some
impacts on the commute home this afternoon/evening will likely
occur.

The next focus with the forecast late this morning will be on
snowfall accumulations and updates to the Winter Weather
Advisory headlines. Locally higher amounts of 3-4" are not out
of the question underneath the mesoscale band (again, most
likely to occur in southern/central NJ). Even though Winter Weather
Advisory criteria is higher, there is also a potential need to
expand the advisory northward into central NJ (especially
Monmouth County).

Why you post same thing Bac posted 15 minutes later? Why you do this?

 

[mildone]

Why you post same thing Bac posted 15 minutes later? Why you do this?

As a thoughtful gesture for the many people who have Bac on ignore?

 

[RU848789]

Why you post same thing Bac posted 15 minutes later? Why you do this?

Didn't see it - when I have 15 windows open about the weather and am posting to 4 different boards and am also doing work from home and talking to my wife, it's a little hard to keep track of who posted what and when. Is it that big of a deal to you? If so, I can edit it.

 

[RU4Real]

Didn't see it - when I have 15 windows open about the weather and am posting to 4 different boards and am also doing work from home and talking to my wife, it's a little hard to keep track of who posted what and when. Is it that big of a deal to you? If so, I can edit it.

 

[ClassOf02]

Flurries have begun in Lambertville.

 

[RU848789]

Well, I've never been quite right in the head - that plus a lifetime of drugs between the ages of 13 and 18 have led to this...

 

[RU4Real]

a lifetime of drugs between the ages of 13 and 18

Quitter.

 

[RU4Real]

Also, @RUScrew85 reports seeing snow outside his bedr... er, um... office window in Mercer County.

 

[RU848789]

First light flakes here in Metuchen at 26F - anything that falls will accumulate. Radar starting to light up - accumulating snow in SE PA, Philly, and SW NJ and not far from most of Central Jersey.