OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
True, but the model is already off on the first 1-2 hours of reality vs. its forecast, so the runs are suspect IMO. Time to see what happens the next 6 hours...
The I-95 corridor is just on the NW fringe of the SPC's forecast area for potential heavy snow banding today from 4-7 pm. Areas in the pink could see 3-5" of snow, locally, under heavy bands.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1796.html
Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern New Jersey and Long
Island
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151850Z - 152245Z
SUMMARY...Moderate snow is developing, with a 1-2 hour period of
heavy snow possible across parts of southern and eastern New Jersey,
mainly between 4-7 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale lift supported by low-level warm advection
appears to be increasingly saturating sub-freezing thermodynamic
profiles across the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region. Guidance
has been persistent in suggesting that increasing mid-level forcing
for ascent associated with an approaching short wave trough will
eventually contribute to increasing lift through the mixed-phased
layer most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. This is
expected to support increasing snow rates through mid to late
afternoon.
Heaviest snow rates may focus across portions of southern and
eastern New Jersey during the 21-23Z time frame, perhaps aided by
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing which is forecast to
strengthen while shifting off the coast, generally south of Long
Island, by early evening. Coupled with at least a modest increase
in moisture (precipitable water increasing in excess of .4 inches),
it appears possible that snow rates could approach or exceed 1 inch
per hour for a 1 or 2 hour period at a particular location. This
seems most probable across New Jersey coastal areas from Atlantic
City through Toms River/Lakewood in the 21-23z time frame, but
portions of the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area may also be
impacted, as well as perhaps portions of Long Island by early this
evening.
..Kerr.. 12/15/2017
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1796.html
Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern New Jersey and Long
Island
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151850Z - 152245Z
SUMMARY...Moderate snow is developing, with a 1-2 hour period of
heavy snow possible across parts of southern and eastern New Jersey,
mainly between 4-7 PM EST.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale lift supported by low-level warm advection
appears to be increasingly saturating sub-freezing thermodynamic
profiles across the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region. Guidance
has been persistent in suggesting that increasing mid-level forcing
for ascent associated with an approaching short wave trough will
eventually contribute to increasing lift through the mixed-phased
layer most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. This is
expected to support increasing snow rates through mid to late
afternoon.
Heaviest snow rates may focus across portions of southern and
eastern New Jersey during the 21-23Z time frame, perhaps aided by
lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic forcing which is forecast to
strengthen while shifting off the coast, generally south of Long
Island, by early evening. Coupled with at least a modest increase
in moisture (precipitable water increasing in excess of .4 inches),
it appears possible that snow rates could approach or exceed 1 inch
per hour for a 1 or 2 hour period at a particular location. This
seems most probable across New Jersey coastal areas from Atlantic
City through Toms River/Lakewood in the 21-23z time frame, but
portions of the greater Philadelphia metropolitan area may also be
impacted, as well as perhaps portions of Long Island by early this
evening.
..Kerr.. 12/15/2017
From flurries to light snow now, with a light dusting on everything and 20+ DBZ echoes look like they're a mile or two from my house - they're going to deliver, I think...
That burst did the trick, with everything now covered with what looks to be nearly 1/2" of fresh powder. New map is up. Heading out for some errands/shopping with the wife, as I took the day off. Then a nice dinner with our son after one of his finals tonight at RU, then we'll pick up our tree. Not a bad day.
They're still racing in Chester.They have the nerve to list the track condition as good.I'm waiting for their wheels to get stuck.
those east of New Brunswick down to the shore and south jersey enjoy your snows...the rest of us meh
That's why those areas are in the advisory for up to 3" of snow and the NW areas are not, but should still get 1-2". You have quite a nice band on top of you now that should get you to close to an inch and you can't only look at existing bands - bands also form from "nothing" if the right conditions are in place. And that band is about 10 minutes from me. About 5/8" of an inch here as we've been in a lull - guessing we'll get about 2" here.
That burst did the trick, with everything now covered with what looks to be nearly 1/2" of fresh powder. New map is up. Heading out for some errands/shopping with the wife, as I took the day off. Then a nice dinner with our son after one of his finals tonight at RU, then we'll pick up our tree. Not a bad day.
Latest from the NWS - things look to be going according to the forecast...
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
356 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The forecast appears to be in good shape overall with this ongoing
snow event. Radar trends show that the focus of mesoscale banding is
shifting east toward the NJ Turnpike and Garden State Parkway in
southern and central NJ, which matches up well with our snowfall
forecast. This is where the greatest impacts for the evening commute
will occur with locally higher snowfall rates of 1" per hour and
poor visibility making travel on congested roadways difficult. Storm
total snowfall accumulations still appear to be in the 1-3" range
for areas covered by the Winter Weather Advisory with locally higher
amounts near 4" possible across southern and east-central portions
of NJ.
The back edge of the snow is already progressing quickly eastward
toward Reading and Mount Pocono as we approach 4 PM. Expect snow to
taper off across the I-95 corridor by 6 or 7 PM and coastal areas by
about 8 PM.
Why do you insist on downplaying everything? Nobody is saying this is snowmageddon, but there's accumulating snow on the streets in Manhattan and if you look at Google Maps at the traffic, there's not a single major highway in NJ/NYC that isn't orange/red/black - sure, 75% of that is likely just Friday traffic, but it rarely looks this bad and the reason is the snow. Good luck with your street walkers.
heaviest echoes have moved past Somerset County..we have about 1.25 inches and it will be over here in about an hour or so
That band delivered as we're up to 1.25" (that's 1" per hour rates for the last 30 minutes). Roads are a mess locally, as I was just out and about and roads throughout the area look to be in tough shape, especially coinciding with a Friday afternoon rush hour before Christmas. Should be done here by 6:30 pm - guessing we'll get 1.5-2.0" overall, which is about what was expected. Looks like the 3" amounts will be more to the SE of 95/TPK, as also predicted.
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It looks like it's stopped here in Cherry Hill. We did get snow that stuck to pavement, but it doesn't look like very much. I understand also that the temperature here will reach 50 by Sunday, meaning we will have a soggy melt. Thanks, RU848789 for your reports and thanks to everyone for their contributions; they've really helped.
Thanks! Forecast highs for you on Sunday are around 41-42F and assuming the some snow is left after tomorrow's highs in the upper 30s (with lots of clouds), even that's optimistic. But it should make it to 50F on Monday and Tuesday.
Yeah, but how much snow do you have on the ground?
Thanks for correcting me on the South Jersey forecast. NWS says that light snow is falling, but it must be really light. Our storm advisory ends at 9 p.m.
Ended up with 1.5" here in Metuchen . Nce low density, pretty snowfall that was easy to "shovel" with a wide broom. Traffic is still absolutely nuts in the area, though, from the combo of snow and too many people on the roads.
Edit: make that 1.6", as the 1.5" was from around 6:45 pm after shoveling and I just went back out around 7:30 to pick up take-out food and there was a fresh 1/10th of an inch on everything I had cleared. Just want to be accurate.
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Yeah, you guys definitely got into some of the heavier bands - guy on the weather board had a pic when it was 2" around 5:30 pm or so.
I drove down to Howell in the worst of it and it wasn't really bad. The roads would have been manageable but for all the people who should really just stay the hell home when it's snowing.
I mean, really... if the best you can do is 5 mph with your hazards on and a mile of traffic stacked up behind you then for the love of all things holy please just stay off the road. You're going to get somebody killed.
This was a reverse bust. Two days ago no discussion. Last night 6pm news. A brief mention of flurries. This morning at 5am a complete change. From a traffic standpoint this was way worse than last Saturday. No brine put on the road. No salt until too late. Snow sticking on contact. Not much but slick everywhere.
Could be an inch or two of snow Sunday night/Monday morning, mainly north of 80, with maybe a dusting in Central Jersey. Some additional chances for precip next Friday (doesn't look like much now) and then maybe around the 24th/25th, but that's way off and not worth thinking about.
But of course the problem is that people aren't at home on a weekday afternoon; they are at work and they obviously want to leave and go home. So there are bound to be traffic jams in this kind of situation. This is why I prefer overnight storms, or, even better, storms on weekends. But the meterological gods won't cooperate, How dare they make weather that's not ideal from the standpoint of humans!
These smaller storms tend to be worse for the traffic and what not. Media plays up the big storms so much now people avoid Work and the roads.
This might P*ss of @RU4Real and @bac2therac but I was one of those people that made money from accidents because of the business I was in. These types of storms were the best for the wallet
This might P*ss of @RU4Real and @bac2therac but I was one of those people that made money from accidents because of the business I was in. These types of storms were the best for the wallet
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