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OT: Winter Is Nigh...Advisories up for 2-3" for most of CNJ/SNJ/NYC/SE-PA today (12/15)

Bust over here. Nothing on the roads, except a little on neighborhood roads. Definitely no shoveling needed. I think we were in the 3-4 inches forecast. Don't know what fell, but I guess the surfaces were too warm for it to stick. Hoping for a little more on grass for the kids.
 
We can definitely agree that people should gather info and see for themselves before making travel decisions that involve weather risks and in a perfect world, people would go right to the primary sources, like the NWS or dozens of other reputable weather/traffic sources.

However, fact is, as many have said, they find it easier to get their info here, since they don't have to hunt to find it, especially if they're already here - they know they'll get my best attempt to be as accurate as possible (and same for several other regular posters). And for those folks, your BS reports don't help. If you're truly in Hamilton, you're downplaying the snowfall and you know it. Just admit it and stop doing it.
Was in Hamilton when I posted. Home now, so my info was accurate at the time. No idea about it now. I assumed that point was obvious to all.
 
Liar - I only have 4.75" right now a few blocks away! :>)
All I know is I played naked, front-facing snow angel on the back deck and didn't get my dingus caught between the decking. Unlike the last last time.

So at this point, it MUST be over 8".
 
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Snow still not sticking on pavement where I am in Cherry Hill. But there is clear slush on paved surfaces and so it's not safe to drive. (I haven't seen any cars driving on my side street.) And now that the sun is down. the snow may start to stick to pavement.
 
I live in Hamilton and we have about 4" on grassy surfaces. My street (side street) is snow covered and most of the sidewalks. I think the storm came in right were they said it would.
 
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Looks like 3 bands have set up. One towards the Coast. On a bit west of 95. And one in Pennsylvania up towards Albany.

This is why forecasting these storms are so hard. The models can’t deptic the bands. And the bands suck in th energy around them. So those that get stuck under them over perform, while those that miss them underperform
 
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Arrived for Army Navy. No snow. 38 degrees. Pretty breezy. Wow. First storm of the year and another screw up. 6am they recognized a "dry slot" but still said 3-6.

Philly is at about 3" last I heard, but more importantly, that was a helluva game in the snow. Love football in the snow and both teams played their hearts out and what a finish.
 
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Looks like 3 bands have set up. One towards the Coast. On a bit west of 95. And one in Pennsylvania up towards Albany.

This is why forecasting these storms are so hard. The models can’t septic the bands. And the bands suck in th energy around them. So those that get stuck under them over perform, while those that miss them underperform


good point...this storm definitely had surprises since the banding really did set up where modelling didnt have it....surprising to see the redevelopment of that new band between the one towards the shore and the one in PA.

Have about 4 inches here in Belle Mead on grassy surfaces....and not quite 2 on the sidewalk
 
Looks like 3 bands have set up. One towards the Coast. On a bit west of 95. And one in Pennsylvania up towards Albany.

This is why forecasting these storms are so hard. The models can’t septic the bands. And the bands suck in th energy around them. So those that get stuck under them over perform, while those that miss them underperform

Exactly. It's way beyond the science (and our computing power) to predict these localized mesoscale precip bands. They can easily be the difference between 2" and 6", which is why forecasts are always a range.

We were at 4" and ripping snow pretty well at 4 pm and then we fell under one of those subsidence "bands" with light precip since then, with heavier bands to our SE and NW, so we're now only at 4.75" as of 6 pm. About to head to the RU hoops game.
 
lol....looks like some movement on the radar...that one band looks like its breaking up....this storm is definitely pesky
 
Nice 8-0 run to go up 11-6. Couple of nice steals and great to see the Duke ahead of the pack on the break for the jam!
 
Its early december, there is white on the ground in JC, I am good with this storm
 
Philly is at about 3" last I heard, but more importantly, that was a helluva game in the snow. Love football in the snow and both teams played their hearts out and what a finish.
Now matter what the amounts this was a big winter event for such a warm fall. It went from 38 to 31 in a hurry around noon and the winds were strong.
And I agree that was one hell of a game. Truly America's Game. It belongs on its own pedestal as the only game on this day and it belongs in Philly.
 
I don't understand the Commander In Chief trophy. They said Army got it for the first time since 1996. Didn't Army win last year and I thought they get the trophy for winning the game.
 
Exactly. It's way beyond the science (and our computing power) to predict these localized mesoscale precip bands. They can easily be the difference between 2" and 6", which is why forecasts are always a range.

We were at 4" and ripping snow pretty well at 4 pm and then we fell under one of those subsidence "bands" with light precip since then, with heavier bands to our SE and NW, so we're now only at 4.75" as of 6 pm. About to head to the RU hoops game.
Finally got under some of the good bands the last hour or so. Up to 5.5" now and hoping to make a good run at 6" with moderate snow falling. Temps at 30F and with them dropping into the mid-20s overnight, anything not shoveled soon will freeze solid. Did a shovel earlier and will do a 2nd one after the game.
 
Somehow,they're racing tonight at the Meadowlands despite the camera not being able to see the horses on the turn before the stretch.
 
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Finally got under some of the good bands the last hour or so. Up to 5.5" now and hoping to make a good run at 6" with moderate snow falling. Temps at 30F and with them dropping into the mid-20s overnight, anything not shoveled soon will freeze solid. Did a shovel earlier and will do a 2nd one after the game.


I doubt it will freeze solid. #fakenews
 
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...New Castle County...
Newark 4.0 701 PM 12/09 CoCoRaHS
Wilmington 3.3 700 PM 12/09 ASOS

...Sussex County...
Delmar 8.0 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Milton 6.0 800 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARYLAND

...Cecil County...
5 NW Elkton 1.3 120 PM 12/09 Social Media
Chesapeake City 1.0 200 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Port Deposit 0.8 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Queen Anne`s County...
Stevensville 1.3 204 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

NEW JERSEY

...Atlantic County...
Estell Manor 1.3 200 PM 12/09 Co-Op Observer
Hammonton 1.3 200 PM 12/09 Social Media
Pomona 1.2 700 PM 12/09 ASOS
Atlantic City 0.2 100 PM 12/09 ASOS

...Burlington County...
Florence 2.8 345 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Westampton 2.8 700 PM 12/09 Official NWS Obs
Edgewater Park 2.0 454 PM 12/09 Social Media
Mount Laurel 1.8 145 PM 12/09 Social Media
Mount Holly 1.4 100 PM 12/09 Official NWS Obs

...Camden County...
Lindenwold 1.6 226 PM 12/09 NWS Employee

...Cape May County...
Cape May Court House 3.0 800 AM 12/09 AMATEUR RADIO
Villas 2.8 1030 AM 12/09 Amateur Radio
Fishing Creek 2.5 800 AM 12/09 AMATEUR RADIO
Wildwood 2.0 800 AM 12/09 AMATEUR RADIO
Eldora 1.5 200 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Goshen 1.1 800 AM 12/09 AMATEUR RADIO

...Cumberland County...
Vineland 1.5 338 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Gloucester County...
Williamstown 2.0 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Sewell 2.0 637 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Hunterdon County...
Readington 1.9 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Mercer County...
Ewing 4.5 631 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Trenton 3.5 406 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Hopewell 2.0 238 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Middlesex County...
Edison 5.0 630 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Cranbury 4.5 638 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
New Brunswick 4.1 442 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
5 NE Old Bridge 2.9 312 PM 12/09 CoCoRaHS
Woodbridge 2.0 1256 PM 12/09 Social Media

...Monmouth County...
Shrewsbury 2.1 446 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Morris County...
Mount Arlington 3.0 447 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Marcella 3.0 614 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Hanover 3.0 554 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Shongum 3.0 545 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Ocean County...
Toms River 1.5 130 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Manahawkin 1.5 237 PM 12/09 Amateur Radio
Bayville 1.3 235 PM 12/09 Amateur Radio
Waretown 1.0 1150 AM 12/09 Social Media
Brick Township 0.8 236 PM 12/09 Amateur Radio

...Somerset County...
Basking Ridge 2.5 215 PM 12/09 Social Media

...Sussex County...
Whitehall 5.6 520 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Wantage 4.4 603 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Stockholm 4.0 458 PM 12/09 Elevation: 1,100 ft.
Sussex 3.9 454 PM 12/09 Social Media
Lafayette 3.5 324 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 SW Wantage 3.5 456 PM 12/09 NWS Employee
Highland Lakes 3.1 220 PM 12/09 ELEVATION 1...400 FT.
2 SSW Hainesville 2.3 333 PM 12/09 NWS Employee
Highland Lake 1.5 1255 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Warren County...
Blairstown 3.0 200 PM 12/09 Social Media
Stewartsville 2.9 504 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Washington 2.8 445 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Oxford 1.0 100 PM 12/09 SOCIAL MEDIA

PENNSYLVANIA

...Berks County...
Mertztown 7.5 658 PM 12/09 Social Media
Sinking Spring 6.8 628 PM 12/09 Social Media
3 W Reading 5.3 514 PM 12/09 Social Media
West Lawn 2.8 237 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Huffs Church 1.8 1245 PM 12/09 Social Media

...Bucks County...
Holland 4.0 640 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Trevose 3.0 425 PM 12/09 Social Media
Rockhill Station 2.8 300 PM 12/09 Social Media
Hilltown 2.5 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Edison 1.5 1255 PM 12/09 Newspaper

...Chester County...
4 NW Coatesville 3.6 631 PM 12/09 Social Media
Exton 3.0 300 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Downingtown 2.8 420 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Valley Forge 2.6 300 PM 12/09 Social Media
Phoenixville 2.5 300 PM 12/09 Social Media
Pughtown 2.0 200 PM 12/09 Social Media

...Delaware County...
Wayne 2.2 300 PM 12/09 Social Media
Chadds Ford 2.0 248 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Norwood 1.5 115 PM 12/09 Social Media
Broomall 1.0 1240 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Lehigh County...
Neffs 5.0 400 PM 12/09 Elevation: 1,020 ft.
Germansville 5.0 510 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
Allentown 4.1 700 PM 12/09 ASOS
Alburtis 3.8 445 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Catasauqua 3.7 330 PM 12/09 Social Media
New Tripoli 3.0 200 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
S Allentown 1.2 1110 AM 12/09 Social Media

...Monroe County...
Bartonsville 3.2 428 PM 12/09 Social Media

...MONTGOMERY County...
1 W AMBLER 1.0 1233 PM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER

...Montgomery County...
Pennsburg 3.3 205 PM 12/09 Social Media
Vernfield 3.0 500 PM 12/09 Social Media
1 W Ambler 2.8 604 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Graterford 2.6 400 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Ambler 2.5 244 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Eagleville 1.8 447 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Souderton 1.3 145 PM 12/09 Social Media

...Northampton County...
North Catasauqua 5.2 626 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Bushkill Center 5.1 531 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Easton 4.2 635 PM 12/09 Social Media
Nazareth 4.0 330 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Martins Creek 1.8 315 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter
Hellertown 1.0 200 PM 12/09 Trained Spotter

...Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia 3.3 700 PM 12/09 ASOS
S Philadelphia 3.0 627 PM 12/09 Social Media
Fox Chase 1.8 427 PM 12/09 Social Media
 
A friend said many flights were cancelled during the day at Hartsfield, which surprised me, as reports out of Metro Atlanta (and especially the airport on the south side of town, 15-20 miles SE of Marietta, which makes a big difference) were of very little accumulating snow until the early evening. What did you hear/see about snowfall in downtown Atlanta/Hartsfield?
Update - the total around my house clocked in around 9.5". I live on top of a hill, and some of my coworkers elsewhere in the area got around 4" of snow so the totals varied a lot by location. We lost our power around 6 AM today (not sure exactly when) and it was restored around 4:20 PM. The sun came out today and helped a lot with the roads, although there will be icy spots in the morning. We lost many tree branches on the tall pine trees behind the house, sadly. I never heard much about what the weather was like in Atlanta or down by Hartsfield.
 
It sure appears I didn't get more than 2-3". I see on the radar it's been something of a mix for a good portion of the day. It's fine with me. I haven't had much use for snow since I gave up skiing. I willingly give it to all you snow lovers.
 
...but if this intensity keeps up past about 3 pm, we'll see accumulation even on major highways.

Nah.

I went up to the Rock for the Never Forget Classic. Left my house at 11:45, pulled into the one of the Edison lots at 12:33. It was snowing, the Turnpike and all the other roads up there were just wet.

One shitty game (SHU hammered VCU, but the VCU dance team is smoke show) and one good game (Go Gators).

Walked out at 8:30, cleaned about 3" of snow off the car and got home in 44 minutes. One local (county) road is snow covered but the Turnpike was completely clear, just wet.

We ate at Fornos before the games. Great place. If you haven't been, definitely go. The food is top notch.
 
Nah.

I went up to the Rock for the Never Forget Classic. Left my house at 11:45, pulled into the one of the Edison lots at 12:33. It was snowing, the Turnpike and all the other roads up there were just wet.

One shitty game (SHU hammered VCU, but the VCU dance team is smoke show) and one good game (Go Gators).

Walked out at 8:30, cleaned about 3" of snow off the car and got home in 44 minutes. One local (county) road is snow covered but the Turnpike was completely clear, just wet.

We ate at Fornos before the games. Great place. If you haven't been, definitely go. The food is top notch.

Yeah, the Turnpike is probably the last road that ever gets snow covered, as they always do a great job on that road - needed to be snowing more heavily than it was for that one to be impacted; probably the same for the Parkway. There were reports that 78 and 80 were slick/slushy in spots. Route 1 got a bit slushy in the early evening, but not too bad and the county roads around here are somewhat snow covered/slushy and the side roads are treacherous.

Fornos is friggin' awesome. I work in Rahway, which is only 10-15 minutes from Newark and we try to get up there for a good meal a couple of times a year, usually for rodizio. Meat coma. And by the way, you're welcome, lol:

https://vcusports.com/vcu-dance-team/gold-rush-christmas/
 
Update - the total around my house clocked in around 9.5". I live on top of a hill, and some of my coworkers elsewhere in the area got around 4" of snow so the totals varied a lot by location. We lost our power around 6 AM today (not sure exactly when) and it was restored around 4:20 PM. The sun came out today and helped a lot with the roads, although there will be icy spots in the morning. We lost many tree branches on the tall pine trees behind the house, sadly. I never heard much about what the weather was like in Atlanta or down by Hartsfield.

Hartsfield reported 2.3", most of which didn't accumulate on paved surfaces, so I still don't get the flight cancellations. North side of Atlanta got 3-4" and obviously not too far NW of there got 8-12", like you did. Amazing what a little latitude and elevation can do. We see the same thing here sometimes. I'll never forget a storm in the late 90s in March, where we got and inch of rain and then an inch of slop in the Edison area, but 10 miles NW in the Watchung hills, my friend in Warren got 18" of heavy wet snow and lost power for a week - he's at about 400 feet and we're at about 100 feet in elevation.
 
Finally got under some of the good bands the last hour or so. Up to 5.5" now and hoping to make a good run at 6" with moderate snow falling. Temps at 30F and with them dropping into the mid-20s overnight, anything not shoveled soon will freeze solid. Did a shovel earlier and will do a 2nd one after the game.

Yep, that last band did the trick, as we hit 6.25" in Metuchen and it looks like accumulating snow is over based on radar. What a horrible forecast bust, lol. Was just out in it for the last hour or so, doing a final shovel, taking a walk and making a snow angel. Tried to make a snowman and, surprisingly, the last several inches of snow are drier than I thought, so the snow wouldn't pack great.

It's stunningly gorgeous out there with the snow clinging to everything, since there's no wind to speak of and during that last band, we were getting huge aggregated dendrites that were about 3/4" across. If you haven't walked around in it, just get out and do it.
 
No bust here.

Except for a busted tire. The MIL insisted on going to church this morning. Okay, fine. But then she had to go to the grocery store (WHY?), then went all the way across town to get pizza for the kids. Ummmmm.....ya know, it's starting to snow and you should get home? But, of course not, no, can't do that. So heading up the hill home, she starts sliding, slides left, pulls the wheel right and hits the curb. Slices the sidewall of the front tire, which is new. NICE! At that point calls us. Didn't tell us about the tire, so I walk down the hill expecting to slide the car into parking or possibly get back, and then she tells me. So we carry all the crap back up, go back down a little later with Tyler, change the tire (love doing that on a steep hill!), put the donut on, which is flat. Fortunately I thought ahead and brought a compressor that plugs into the cigarette lighter. Anyway, got it full, packed everything in the car, tried to drive it up the hill and the traction control basically prevented me. Turned that off, spun, kept it in a controlled slide up the hill, right into our street, then left and finally slid it into the driveway. If she had just parked and called me when she started sliding, none of this would have happened.
 
It's pretty interesting that the forecast was generally great for anywhere within 20-25 miles of the Turnpike in either direction from DE to NYC, but the area that was supposed to get the most, closer to the Shore, generally got the least and the area that was supposed to get the least (NW/inland areas), generally got the most or at least as much as the I-95 corridor. So, somewhat of a bust from that very general perspective.

In hindsight, I wonder if the pros could've predicted this a bit, despite the model predictions. The reason I say that was a similar thing essentially happened from Texas to NC in the Deep South. A day or two before the storm hit there, the models were showing the precip shield not making it very far into the colder air in place to the NW of cities like Atlanta, but by the time the event hit, the moisture driven by the upper level trough made its way 25-50 miles further NW than expected, leading to huge snows for those areas as the cold air was where it was modeled to be. TWC's Tom Niziol did a great job of illustrating this tonight

In our case, a similar thing happened where the precip shield was never modeled to make it much further west than about 20-25 miles west of the Delaware River, south of Trenton and not much further west than the western edge of Warren/Sussex/Hunterdon in NW NJ. Obvoiusly, the bands made it a good 25-50 miles west of where they were expected.

Not quite sure, though, what happened on the coastal side of things, though, as the major bands simply didn't set up over those locations, i.e., it wasn't a case of it being too warm and being rain (like it was in the Deep South, where Atlanta downtown got mostly rain and a few inches of snow, while 10-20 miles NW of there got 8-12" of snow).
 
No bust here.

Except for a busted tire. The MIL insisted on going to church this morning. Okay, fine. But then she had to go to the grocery store (WHY?), then went all the way across town to get pizza for the kids. Ummmmm.....ya know, it's starting to snow and you should get home? But, of course not, no, can't do that. So heading up the hill home, she starts sliding, slides left, pulls the wheel right and hits the curb. Slices the sidewall of the front tire, which is new. NICE! At that point calls us. Didn't tell us about the tire, so I walk down the hill expecting to slide the car into parking or possibly get back, and then she tells me. So we carry all the crap back up, go back down a little later with Tyler, change the tire (love doing that on a steep hill!), put the donut on, which is flat. Fortunately I thought ahead and brought a compressor that plugs into the cigarette lighter. Anyway, got it full, packed everything in the car, tried to drive it up the hill and the traction control basically prevented me. Turned that off, spun, kept it in a controlled slide up the hill, right into our street, then left and finally slid it into the driveway. If she had just parked and called me when she started sliding, none of this would have happened.

There is a solution, lol...

31129-12195.jpg
 
Well, football season's over, which means it must be winter (meteorological winter, at least), so thought some of you might be interested to know that the mild fall we've had is over and it's about to get cold mid-week and even colder next week and likely to stay below to well below normal at least through Day 15 (12/17) or so and possibly beyond.

The global pattern is looking very favorable for occasional lobes of the polar vortex to head down towards the Great Lakes and Northeast US (and even down into the deep south at times), bringing lots of cold air - doesn't mean every day is going to be brutally cold, but some are likely to be well below normal and most to all will be below normal (normal in NB is 47/30F on 12/7 to 42/26F on 12/21).

I'm no fan of predicting specific weather for a specific day beyond 7-8 days out, as the accuracy just isn't there for chaotic systems, like the weather, but predicting general trends for 2-3 weeks out has some accuracy and the 15-day model runs are all showing the cold and most of the long-range forecasters are seeing the same.

So, does this mean we're going to get snow? Well, that's a lot harder to predict, but it's certainly a lot more likely to snow when it's below freezing than when it's not (duh) and the pattern is also showing the next few weeks being active with a series of shortwaves (lows) that will likely at least result in some snow in the area (and probably a lot of lake effect snow), especially in the climatologically more favored, colder, inland locations. The first significant threat of snow (the Weds/Thursday system should be all rain, maybe ending as snow inland) is next weekend, although it's still too far out to predict anything. Crossing fingers, of course.

24232033_10212700681785970_4464863927649059734_n.jpg


https://www.33andrain.com/topic/758-awakening-long-range-winter-thread-part-2/

Score one for the CPC and Earthlight. The pattern is playing out as expected with lots of cold weather so far and much more on tap, as it's going to get brutally cold by mid-week, with highs only in the 20s (~20F below normal) likely on Wednesday and Thursday, plus we got a solid snowstorm, which is always more likely in a pattern like this, as noted.

And we have two more shots at some light snow this week. The first is with a clipper that comes through early Tuesday and could put down an inch or two, especially NW of I-95 (and north of 78); not much is expected from Philly to NB; NYC could also see an inch. The second storm is a stronger clipper on Friday that has the potential to bring a few inches of snow to the area - still way too far off to predict snowfall, however.

The pattern may then shift again, away from such a cold pattern, by about 12/18 or so, but that's not written in stone, as signals are mixed on that. Stay tuned.
 
Nah.

I went up to the Rock for the Never Forget Classic. Left my house at 11:45, pulled into the one of the Edison lots at 12:33. It was snowing, the Turnpike and all the other roads up there were just wet.

One shitty game (SHU hammered VCU, but the VCU dance team is smoke show) and one good game (Go Gators).

Walked out at 8:30, cleaned about 3" of snow off the car and got home in 44 minutes. One local (county) road is snow covered but the Turnpike was completely clear, just wet.

We ate at Fornos before the games. Great place. If you haven't been, definitely go. The food is top notch.

Never took you for a hoops fan..please go to the rac next week
 
I would say 4-5 inches in Hillsborough area and probably only half inch to barely 2 inches on pavement in the highest spots
 
Update - the total around my house clocked in around 9.5". I live on top of a hill, and some of my coworkers elsewhere in the area got around 4" of snow so the totals varied a lot by location. We lost our power around 6 AM today (not sure exactly when) and it was restored around 4:20 PM. The sun came out today and helped a lot with the roads, although there will be icy spots in the morning. We lost many tree branches on the tall pine trees behind the house, sadly. I never heard much about what the weather was like in Atlanta or down by Hartsfield.

A friend of mine in eastern Atlanta (in the DeKalb county portion) tells me she got snow, but not nearly as much as you did. She thinks it's all lovely, but has the sense not to go outdoors.
 
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