Pac12 dissolution discussion

[rotorocker]

I'm kinda surprised there isn't any talk about this since it seems like daily there are articles coming out about which teams are going where. I don't really have as much knowledge in the big12/pac12 as others here do but would love some insight into what some people think/are hearing. It seems like a matter of time until the pac12 is done for. reddit.com/r/cfb is where i tend to get a lot of good stuff from but there are other news articles that mention teams like arizona/colorado possibly jumping ship first according to Pete Thamel. Yet I've also read that AZ, AZ State, Utah, Colorado as a tandem may also all leave at once. Thoughts?

Big 12 expansion speculation: Arizona, Colorado 'odds-on candidates' to leave Pac-12 first

The college conference expansion talk just won't stop. Neither will the chatter surrounding the potential exodus of some Pac-12 teams for the Big 12.

www.azcentral.com

 

[Joey Bags]

Only 2 conferences, SEC and Big 10. Everyone else is a dead man walking, including the ACC.

 

[krup]

Only 2 conferences, SEC and Big 10. Everyone else is a dead man walking, including the ACC.

Depends what time frame you are talking about.

The ACC is status quo for 10-12 years then blows up when their GOR ends.

The B12 survives as the conferences with some remnants of the P12 and ACC, but makes way less $$$ than the two major conferences.

 

[kupuna133]

Depends what time frame you are talking about.

The ACC is status quo for 10-12 years then blows up when their GOR ends.

The B12 survives as the conferences with some remnants of the P12 and ACC, but makes way less $$$ than the two major conferences.

If ACC media revenue is status quo over the next 10-12 years they are absolute dead man walking. Only way they can increase revenue is either by renegotiating their media deal thereby extending their current GOR. Or dissolving GOR altogether which will expedite their failure

 

[krup]

If ACC media revenue is status quo over the next 10-12 years they are absolute dead man walking. Only way they can increase revenue is either by renegotiating their media deal thereby extending their current GOR. Or dissolving GOR altogether which will expedite their failure

They have been dead man walking for a while, but they are going to survive until the end of the contract because of the GOR and ESPN wanting to milk them for cheap content.

 

[mosito]

Only 4-5 ACC Teams, The minority, actually benefit from dissolving the GOR... so nothing is happening with the ACC especially with the BIG and SEC having contracts through 2030.

It would behoove the rest of the ACC to merge with the PAC12 and do a coast to coast which would maybe make them survive long term after Florida St and others leave... But that won't happen and in all likelihood the Big12 gets 2-3 ACC teams after the SEC and BIG10 have first dibs themselves.


We were chatting about this in the other thread, but for the past 2-4 weeks, its been the same thing... rumblings which just keep getting louder, but nothing new.

At this point i think the 4 corner schools leave for the BIG12. and Oregon/Washington get an extremely reduced share in the BIG10 or do a 8-10 Pac12 conference until they find a future home. I doubt they join the Big12.

Not sure what happens to Cal and Standford.

 

[MikeR0102]

End game is 2 32 team conferences and no one happy. Probably 8 pods of 4 or 4 pods of 8.

 

[krup]

Only 4-5 ACC Teams, The minority, actually benefit from dissolving the GOR... so nothing is happening with the ACC especially with the BIG and SEC having contracts through 2030.

It would behoove the rest of the ACC to merge with the PAC12 and do a coast to coast which would maybe make them survive long term after Florida St and others leave... But that won't happen and in all likelihood the Big12 gets 2-3 ACC teams after the SEC and BIG10 have first dibs themselves.


We were chatting about this in the other thread, but for the past 2-4 weeks, its been the same thing... rumblings which just keep getting louder, but nothing new.

At this point i think the 4 corner schools leave for the BIG12. and Oregon/Washington get an extremely reduced share in the BIG10 or do a 8-10 Pac12 conference until they find a future home. I doubt they join the Big12.

Not sure what happens to Cal and Standford.

The problem is that beyond the ACC schools that are in obvious trouble if the conference dissolves (like BC, Syracuse, Wake), there are a bunch that cannot be 100% sure they will be included as a B12 addition.

Only the ones that know they are likely SEC or B1G additions (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Virginia) can be real comfortable that they will find a good home. So, since the difference between current ACC and new B12 revenue isn’t that great, it doesn’t make sense for a lot of the schools to force an ACC blowup.

 

[krup]

End game is 2 32 team conferences and no one happy. Probably 8 pods of 4 or 4 pods of 8.

The B12 isn’t going anywhere , but they will make less than 1/2 the TV money the two big conferences get.

 

[mosito]

The problem is that beyond the ACC schools that are in obvious trouble if the conference dissolves (like BC, Syracuse, Wake), there are a bunch that cannot be 100% sure they will be included as a B12 addition.

Only the ones that know they are likely SEC or B1G additions (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Virginia) can be real comfortable that they will find a good home. So, since the difference between current ACC and new B12 revenue isn’t that great, it doesn’t make sense for a lot of the schools to force an ACC blowup.

That is what i meant.

It is currently in the best interest of the 70% of ACC schools to merge with the PAC12 (without Ore-St and Wash-St)
That would result in Pitt/Syracuse/Duke/NC-St/V-Tech and others to survive when FloridaSt, NC, and VA leave.

Otherwise if the Big12 gets Arizona,Utah,Colo,A-St, then they will just cherry pick 1-3 ACC teams from the 7-10 left. And somehow, Cincy and UCF end up in the 3rd tier conference while ACC teams are in a distant 4th conference.

You know all the ACC teams are pissed off at Maryland........

 

[RUGuitarMan]

I don’t see the total collapse of major conferences in the near future. I think the playoff expansion to 12 teams with the top 6 conf champions getting a bid will help slow the movement.

 

[krup]

That is what i meant.

It is currently in the best interest of the 70% of ACC schools to merge with the PAC12 (without Ore-St and Wash-St)
That would result in Pitt/Syracuse/Duke/NC-St/V-Tech and others to survive when FloridaSt, NC, and VA leave.

Otherwise if the Big12 gets Arizona,Utah,Colo,A-St, then they will just cherry pick 1-3 ACC teams from the 7-10 left. And somehow, Cincy and UCF end up in the 3rd tier conference while ACC teams are in a distant 4th conference.

You know all the ACC teams are pissed off at Maryland........

It would be best for the schools likely to be the next UConn like Syracuse and BC, but I don’t know that combining with the P12 is best for the others. Does that P12/ACC leftover conference get a better contract than the B12 did?

I think the best thing the ACC has is the commitment by ND to stick with them through the end of their deal in 2036. Fourteen years of stability, then who knows what the media landscape is by 2036.

 

[50 yd line RR]

Wasn’t all that long ago they were saying the same thing about the Big 12.
The only thing that could possibly help the 3 smaller power 5 conferences is some sort of alliance that might bring in more revenue. Very hard to match what the BIG and SEC are bringing in.
That’s what it seems to be all about today. The bottom line, and survival.
Should have never come to this.

 

[rucoe89]

Scenario no one is talking about .... yet. As the current SEC and BigTen contracts move towards next renewal, the blue bloods of SEC and BigTen break off to form a higher level conference that is just below NFL and leave others in their conference behind. The driver of course will be money. Someone may decide they will go all in to lock up Saturday inventory for themselves or between two and the schools below may say "this is so worth it given what we can get on the market.

In the new uber conference, the only guarantees may be (based on historical status and rough markets):

Texas
Alabama
LSU
Tennessee
Georgia
Florida
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Wisconsin
USC
UCLA

They will look to add:

ND

That's 13 to start. For inventory, they will need at least another 11 to 15 more teams to join to get to 24 to 28 overall. Maybe they stretch to two conferences of 15 or 16 each with 3 divisions of 5 in each or 4 divisions of 4 in each. The next few years may decide who those additional teams are that get to join them. Of course this is "way out there", but its not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Let’s wait to see how the PAC 12 media negotiations play out. None of these schools wants to play in a truck stop conference. Flagship universities joining the Big 12 playing third- and fourth-tier schools in small towns?

 

[oldtimer67]

End game is 2 32 team conferences and no one happy. Probably 8 pods of 4 or 4 pods of 8.

There is absolutely no reason for this to happen. Why would SEC and B10 teams want to make less money?

 

[rotorocker]

and wasn't FSU just recently seriously threatening to leave the ACC because they weren't getting a fair share of money?

 

[krup]

and wasn't FSU just recently seriously threatening to leave the ACC because they weren't getting a fair share of money?

They can “seriously threaten” all they want. The GOR doesn’t make it easy for them to get out.

 

[rotorocker]

They can “seriously threaten” all they want. The GOR doesn’t make it easy for them to get out.

I thought that they had that in consideration and were still threatening because they had the money figures in their favor. I could be wrong though.

 

[jaydogsmooth1]

I thought that they had that in consideration and were still threatening because they had the money figures in their favor. I could be wrong though.

AD Michael Alford put the ACC on blast with his meeting with the BOT

Since then, both Clemson and UNC's AD's have both said the revenue is problematic and all three are advocating for unequal revenue sharing from the league

 

[krup]

I thought that they had that in consideration and were still threatening because they had the money figures in their favor. I could be wrong though.

They threw a lot out there.

On one hand, they said they they think they could get out for only $120 million, which is less than anyone else thinks. Then, they also said they want unequal revenue sharing.

Well, if they could get out of this bad contract that has 13 years to run so easily for only $120 million they would have done it already, not just talked about it, because they would make that money back in 3 years in the SEC.

Obviously, they know they can’t really get out, and want unequal revenue sharing, and think the only way they could possibly get the other ACC members to give them more is by making them think FSU has options.

 

[retired711]

Let’s wait to see how the PAC 12 media negotiations play out. None of these schools wants to play in a truck stop conference. Flagship universities joining the Big 12 playing third- and fourth-tier schools in small towns?

"Truck stop" conference? That's a little extreme, although I would certainly agree that the remaining six Pacific coast teams are prestigious. But remember that Colorado and Utah joined the Pac-12 pretty recently, that Arizona/Arizona State are not origiinal members of the Pac-12, and that none of the schools are in states that touch the Pacific Ocean. Money will be the chief consideration in their decision.. If they jump, then there are only six remaining Pac-12 teams, and two of them (Washington and Oregon) have expressed interest in joining the B1G if that expands. So the Pac-12 is on shaky ground. But, again, the key will be money.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

They threw a lot out there.

On one hand, they said they they think they could get out for only $120 million, which is less than anyone else thinks. Then, they also said they want unequal revenue sharing.

Well, if they could get out of this bad contract that has 13 years to run so easily for only $120 million they would have done it already, not just talked about it, because they would make that money back in 3 years in the SEC.

Obviously, they know they can’t really get out, and want unequal revenue sharing, and think the only way they could possibly get the other ACC members to give them more is by making them think FSU has options.

120/mil is just the exit fee, and doesn’t include any GOR penalties

Conservative estimates have the total number around 400/500 mil

FSU is leading the charge of getting the other schools on board w unequal revenue sharing and ultimately leaving, as you’d need 8 to dissolve the GOR

Finding landing sports for FSU CU UNC & UVA is easy, it’s the other schools where it becomes problematic

 

[krup]

120/mil is just the exit fee, and doesn’t include any GOR penalties

Conservative estimates have the total number around 400/500 mil

FSU is leading the charge of getting the other schools on board w unequal revenue sharing and ultimately leaving, as you’d need 8 to dissolve the GOR

Finding landing sports for FSU CU UNC & UVA is easy, it’s the other schools where it becomes problematic

To me, the big factor in this, whether soon or (more likely) towards the end of the ACC contract, is UNC.

B1G fans like to talk about UNC and UVA as automatic B1G additions, but there is strong support at UNC for joining the SEC instead.

If the B1G DID get UNC and UVA, one could see V Tech and NC State being cultural fits for the SEC, and then maybe the B1G expands their footprint even more south with a G Tech addition. Wake would definitely be out, and Duke/ Miami are uncertain.

If UNC went to the SEC, I could see the B1G still taking UVA, but they aren’t going to be interested in NC State. Then, they probable aren’t going to reach further south for an isolated school like G Tech, either.

UNC going to the SEC makes the future uncertain for a lot more ACC schools.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

To me, the big factor in this, whether soon or (more likely) towards the end of the ACC contract, is UNC.

B1G fans like to talk about UNC and UVA as automatic B1G additions, but there is strong support at UNC for joining the SEC instead.

If the B1G DID get UNC and UVA, one could see V Tech and NC State being cultural fits for the SEC, and then maybe the B1G expands their footprint even more south with a G Tech addition. Wake would definitely be out, and Duke/ Miami are uncertain.

If UNC went to the SEC, I could see the B1G still taking UVA, but they aren’t going to be interested in NC State. Then, they probable aren’t going to reach further south for an isolated school like G Tech, either.

UNC going to the SEC makes the future uncertain for a lot more ACC schools.

Agree 100 percent
UNC will likely determine a lot

I still think that they will end up in the Big Ten as they are more of a cultural fit there, and the University aligns with the big 10 university structure. However, we all know that money order me plays a role, so I would also not be surprised if they were in the SEC

What’s more surprising is that there? I thought it director is going on record advocating for unequal revenue sharing. Caroline has always been the linchpin of the ACC, and have him say that he thinks that they should make more than their counterparts, the refreshing, was surprising to me.

 

[krup]

Agree 100 percent
UNC will likely determine a lot

I still think that they will end up in the Big Ten as they are more of a cultural fit there, and the University aligns with the big 10 university structure. However, we all know that money order me plays a role, so I would also not be surprised if they were in the SEC

What’s more surprising is that there? I thought it director is going on record advocating for unequal revenue sharing. Caroline has always been the linchpin of the ACC, and have him say that he thinks that they should make more than their counterparts, the refreshing, was surprising to me.

I think it is likely the fans want the SEC more while the people running the school would prefer to join the B1G.

Using the MD precedent for that type of decision would have them end up in the B1G.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I think it is likely the fans want the SEC more while the people running the school would prefer to join the B1G.

Using the MD precedent for that type of decision would have them end up in the B1G.

I feel like Carolina fans look down on the SEC

They’re a wine & cheese crowd - I’d think they’d be more apt to bump shoulders with the Michigan & UCLAs rather than with Alabama & Georgia

 

[krup]

I feel like Carolina fans look down on the SEC

They’re a wine & cheese crowd - I’d think they’d be more apt to bump shoulders with the Michigan & UCLAs rather than with Alabama & Georgia

That’s not the sense I get from diehard fans on a lot of different sites I frequent.

I could see there being a difference between more well to do alumni, who like the status of their degree being elevated, versus others and non-alums who just care about the football and want the school’s football status elevated more.

 

[ru109]

My big question with UCLA coming to the BIG and the possible dissolution of the PAC 12 is what happens to Bill Walton. He might be the single worst broadcaster on TV today with the whole conference of champions crap. Dow he stay in the PAC 12 for as long as it last or does he start doing BIG games since UCLA is now part of our conference. Also is there anyway we keep him from broadcasting any of our games because I can't listen to him for more than 5 min.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

That’s not the sense I get from diehard fans on a lot of different sites I frequent.

I could see there being a difference between more well to do alumni, who like the status of their degree being elevated, versus others and non-alums who just care about the football and want the school’s football status elevated more.

Honestly, I could see them going to either conference, they are a very valuable brand and successful Overall athletic department and would be a huge boom to either the Big Ten or the SEC.

 

[airspace]

Like Krup, most of the UNC t-shirt fans want to go the SEC. The Academic side and a portion of their alumni prefer the Big 10. One factor is NC State, given the politics of NC, UNC is going to have to make sure NC State finds a good landing spot (will the SEC double dip in NC?). What about Duke, how does this factor in?

From what I have seen from the Virginia side, they prefer the Big 10. They will tell you that they are the home to the honor code (says a lot about them and gives you an idea of what they think of the SEC). Believe they would prefer the ACC stay alive as first choice.

Georgia Tech had an offer back when Maryland came to the Big 10 (they are kicking themselves for turning it down). Believe the Big 10 will offer again and they will take it. They have a real dislike for the SEC. Remember, they were in the SEC and left due to academics.

If you have been paying attention to FSU, they are doing everything to up their academics and going for AAU. Their president came from Harvard (believe he was a provost their) and he has made tremendous strides in improving their academics and research. Some people believe they have been talking to the Big 10 about membership. Believe all of this stuff about unequal revenue is preparing the ground work for several members to leave.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Like Krup, most of the UNC t-shirt fans want to go the SEC. The Academic side and a portion of their alumni prefer the Big 10. One factor is NC State, given the politics of NC, UNC is going to have to make sure NC State finds a good landing spot (will the SEC double dip in NC?). What about Duke, how does this factor in?

From what I have seen from the Virginia side, they prefer the Big 10. They will tell you that they are the home to the honor code (says a lot about them and gives you an idea of what they think of the SEC). Believe they would prefer the ACC stay alive as first choice.

Georgia Tech had an offer back when Maryland came to the Big 10 (they are kicking themselves for turning it down). Believe the Big 10 will offer again and they will take it. They have a real dislike for the SEC. Remember, they were in the SEC and left due to academics.

If you have been paying attention to FSU, they are doing everything to up their academics and going for AAU. Their president came from Harvard (believe he was a provost their) and he has made tremendous strides in improving their academics and research. Some people believe they have been talking to the Big 10 about membership. Believe all of this stuff about unequal revenue is preparing the ground work for several members to leave.

Spot on re FSU
Let’s get it done!

 

[50 yd line RR]

That would be quite a laundry list if the BIG took Carolina, Virginia, Ga. Tech and FSU. ND seems to have an open invite.
Not to mention any more PAC schools they might be interested in. Washington,Oregon Stanford, Cal?
The BIG always does their due diligence when bringing in teams. It could take years to make it happen. If that is the intent.

 

[mosito]

Something tells me Big10 will not stop at 20 and will go to 24.

• Will they leave USC and UCLA on an island? I think not and eventually add Oregon and Washington.
• Will they Only take FSU/UNC/UVA/GT if they all want in?
• Will ND then join after they see the above.

That is 23 teams that i don't think we walk away from.

• Do we then add another Florida team? (Miami no AAU)
• Do we add Stanford or Cal? Can't be both
• Anyone else have a Shot? I don't think so

I hope they stay at 20, but something tells me they go to 24 unless UNC /FSU prefer the SEC. At that point it might be Virginia, Oregon, Washington and ND

• 20 Teams : Oregon, Washington, ND, Virginia
• 24 Teams : Add FSU, UNC, GT and CAL/Stanford/Miami

What does the SEC do

• Get a NC team - NC St or UNC
• Get a VA team - Virginia Tech
• Get FSU
• Get Clemson.
• Get Miami

I see no scenario where the SEC goes beyond 20 teams... They are either duplicating markets or the team just doesn't bring value.

 

[50 yd line RR]

I think a lot of these scenarios depend on how hard the SEC pushes for programs. It’s not a given UNC or any ACC school (south of the Mason Dixon Line) for that matter will pick the BIG over the SEC.
If the SEC holds at 20 would the BIG still add more? Who really knows.
I just hope it takes time. The more years Rutgers can get the big payday and build our brand. The more we will be viewed as a legit big time program. Once more programs are added we ( and a lot of BIG programs)will lose a little piece of our identity within the BIG conference.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

 

[oldtimer67]

I think a lot of these scenarios depend on how hard the SEC pushes for programs. It’s not a given UNC or any ACC school (south of the Mason Dixon Line) for that matter will pick the BIG over the SEC.
If the SEC holds at 20 would the BIG still add more? Who really knows.
I just hope it takes time. The more years Rutgers can get the big payday and build our brand. The more we will be viewed as a legit big time program. Once more programs are added we ( and a lot of BIG programs)will lose a little piece of our identity within the BIG conference.

I know that conference realignment is one of the favorite topics on this board, and the media loves to drive the speculation. However, there is not one post in this thread that even attempts to give one reason why the B!G or the SEC would want to expand. Start with 16 being a near perfect number for a conference in terms of scheduling, tournaments, distribution, etc. Then try to come up with a scenario where the per school payouts are INCREASED by whatever change you suggest. I don't think you can do it without the B!G and SEC raiding each other.

The fact is that neither of these conferences need more content; nor do their media partners. 16 teams provide more than enough content as it is.

Now, when it comes to the B12, PAC12 and ACC things are different. They can possibly improve their media position by adding members to generate more content. One problem they have is that most media purchasers of content don't really need any more, either. How many football games can Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC and ESPN show that they are not showing already? The answer is that the content seekers are Amazon, You Tube, and MAYBE one or two more. The amount of content these providers can show is limited. If you think these are the outlets that will generate the extra money to pay the schools, then why is it not working for the PAC12?

Why will any media organization pay the B12 more for Arizona and Arizona State than they will pay the PAC12? Same for Colorado and UTAH. Sure, there might be a geographic fit, but where is the money? The B12 has already diluted their level of play and their academics (if the ever had any without Texas), why would PAC12 schools want to get into that shallow pool?

The ACC is just a disaster that can't continue for too much longer. They jumped at the crap ESPN sold them and now they are paying the price. And the west coast connection is someone's pipe dream. If UCLA playing in the midwest is a problem, how about Miami in Seattle, or Syracuse in Tucson? And, again, you have the content problem. ESPN does not need more content. Why will they pay the ACC enough to increase their current members to SEC levels and pay the new west coast schools, too? The ONLY way out for the ACC is to end the GOR agreement, and to do that, the big schools will have to offer some benefits to the other schools to get their vote. And, if the result of ending the GOR is that the major draws in that conference are going to leave, why in hell would the other schools support that? Maybe ESPN will be nice and give them another billion dollars in the name of EQUITY. They seem to like that approach to other things.

Finally, I think if the B1G were going to expand any time soon, they would have done it when they took the LA schools. I am sure they looked at the money, the scheduling, etc. and said no.

But, hey, all this speculation is fun, right?

 

[oldtimer67]

Scenario no one is talking about .... yet. As the current SEC and BigTen contracts move towards next renewal, the blue bloods of SEC and BigTen break off to form a higher level conference that is just below NFL and leave others in their conference behind. The driver of course will be money. Someone may decide they will go all in to lock up Saturday inventory for themselves or between two and the schools below may say "this is so worth it given what we can get on the market.

In the new uber conference, the only guarantees may be (based on historical status and rough markets):

Texas
Alabama
LSU
Tennessee
Georgia
Florida
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
Wisconsin
USC
UCLA

They will look to add:

ND

That's 13 to start. For inventory, they will need at least another 11 to 15 more teams to join to get to 24 to 28 overall. Maybe they stretch to two conferences of 15 or 16 each with 3 divisions of 5 in each or 4 divisions of 4 in each. The next few years may decide who those additional teams are that get to join them. Of course this is "way out there", but its not outside the realm of possibility.

IMO, this post shows a complete lack of understanding of traditions in the B1G and SEC. There is no way the B1G or any of its members are dropping MSU, IOwa, Minnesota, Illinois, etc. There is no way the SEC or any of its members are dropping Auburn, Miss, MSU, Tenn, Ky, SC etc.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Like Krup, most of the UNC t-shirt fans want to go the SEC. The Academic side and a portion of their alumni prefer the Big 10. One factor is NC State, given the politics of NC, UNC is going to have to make sure NC State finds a good landing spot (will the SEC double dip in NC?). What about Duke, how does this factor in?

From what I have seen from the Virginia side, they prefer the Big 10. They will tell you that they are the home to the honor code (says a lot about them and gives you an idea of what they think of the SEC). Believe they would prefer the ACC stay alive as first choice.

Georgia Tech had an offer back when Maryland came to the Big 10 (they are kicking themselves for turning it down). Believe the Big 10 will offer again and they will take it. They have a real dislike for the SEC. Remember, they were in the SEC and left due to academics.

If you have been paying attention to FSU, they are doing everything to up their academics and going for AAU. Their president came from Harvard (believe he was a provost their) and he has made tremendous strides in improving their academics and research. Some people believe they have been talking to the Big 10 about membership. Believe all of this stuff about unequal revenue is preparing the ground work for several members to leave.

GT had no offer, where are you getting that from?

primary targets are ND/Stanford, UNC/FSU .

 

[retired711]

I know that conference realignment is one of the favorite topics on this board, and the media loves to drive the speculation. However, there is not one post in this thread that even attempts to give one reason why the B!G or the SEC would want to expand. Start with 16 being a near perfect number for a conference in terms of scheduling, tournaments, distribution, etc. Then try to come up with a scenario where the per school payouts are INCREASED by whatever change you suggest. I don't think you can do it without the B!G and SEC raiding each other.

The fact is that neither of these conferences need more content; nor do their media partners. 16 teams provide more than enough content as it is.

Now, when it comes to the B12, PAC12 and ACC things are different. They can possibly improve their media position by adding members to generate more content. One problem they have is that most media purchasers of content don't really need any more, either. How many football games can Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC and ESPN show that they are not showing already? The answer is that the content seekers are Amazon, You Tube, and MAYBE one or two more. The amount of content these providers can show is limited. If you think these are the outlets that will generate the extra money to pay the schools, then why is it not working for the PAC12?

Why will any media organization pay the B12 more for Arizona and Arizona State than they will pay the PAC12? Same for Colorado and UTAH. Sure, there might be a geographic fit, but where is the money? The B12 has already diluted their level of play and their academics (if the ever had any without Texas), why would PAC12 schools want to get into that shallow pool?

The ACC is just a disaster that can't continue for too much longer. They jumped at the crap ESPN sold them and now they are paying the price. And the west coast connection is someone's pipe dream. If UCLA playing in the midwest is a problem, how about Miami in Seattle, or Syracuse in Tucson? And, again, you have the content problem. ESPN does not need more content. Why will they pay the ACC enough to increase their current members to SEC levels and pay the new west coast schools, too? The ONLY way out for the ACC is to end the GOR agreement, and to do that, the big schools will have to offer some benefits to the other schools to get their vote. And, if the result of ending the GOR is that the major draws in that conference are going to leave, why in hell would the other schools support that? Maybe ESPN will be nice and give them another billion dollars in the name of EQUITY. They seem to like that approach to other things.

Finally, I think if the B1G were going to expand any time soon, they would have done it when they took the LA schools. I am sure they looked at the money, the scheduling, etc. and said no.

But, hey, all this speculation is fun, right?

I agree with a lot in your post, but I have a question.

Let's assume that you're right that the B1G and SEC have no desire to expand. Let's also assume that you're right that "The ACC is just a disaster that can't continue for too much longer." Then what happens to the ACC schools?