Are you saying we wouldn't be favored vs. a team that played the day before? I think it’s a big advantage.
Well let me think in more detail.
If we are #4, Ohio State is most likely #5 (?), and they would be playing the winner of the 12/13 game which is most likely Northwestern/Minnesota (?)
(Please correct above if wrong).
In the NBA a back to back seems to hurt teams by about 1 point per 100, and a 3rd by like 1.8 per 100. Since college teams are less used to it lets call it 1.5/100 and 2/100. Since the average tempo is 67.4 we'll call that roughly 1 ppg and 1.5 ppg.
So (rough numbers)
Northwestern vs Minnesota 59/41 according to Massey
----
59% of the time:
Northwestern vs Ohio St (would be 33/67 but with Northwestern 1 ppg weaker becomes ~30/70)
41% of the time:
Minnesota vs Ohio St (would be 26/74 but with Minnesota 1 ppg weaker becomes ~24/76)
----
Which means, as the 4 seed:
59%*30% = 18% we play Northwestern on their third game in a row
41%*24% = 10% we play Minnesota on their third game in a row
The remaining 72% we play Ohio St on a back to back
----
So
72% of the time
Rutgers vs Ohio St (would be 35/65 but with Ohio St 1 ppg weaker becomes ~38/62)
18% of the time
Rutgers vs Northwestern (would be 53/47 but with Northwestern 1.5 ppg weaker becomes 57/43)
10% of the time
Rutgers vs Minnesota (would be 62/38 but with Minnesota 1.5 ppg weaker becomes 67/33)
So our chances of winning the first game
72% * 38% = 27.36%
PLUS
18% * 57% = 10.26%
PLUS
10% * 67% = 6.7%
-----------------------
44.32%
Now you could quibble with all of this (maybe you think the Rutgers/Ohio State gap is smaller than 35/65 or the Rutgers/Northwestern gap is bigger than 53/47). But this is based on Massey which is pretty charitable to us as computer ratings go (has us #50 as opposed to #79 Bart and #70 Kenpom) so I wouldn't think the true odds are too much higher than this.
