Season Prediction Thread

[Degaz-RU]

Unfortunately, despite my excitement for the upcoming season, I too think that we're probably going to win 12 or 13 games (7-3 OOC, plus 5 or 6 B1G wins), with an outside chance at 14-15 wins.

Of course, if Baker, Omoruyi, Thiam, and Kiss exceed even the most hearty of expectations, all bets are off, and perhaps we push for an NIT bid. But that scenario is an outlier.

If forced to pick, I'd say 13-17 (7-3, 6-14).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It is nice to see most predictions are actually realistic. Let's not forget them. Most people are in the 12 and 14 camp and think Pike is the right guy.

 

[RU-ROCS]

FDU- W
Drexel- W
St Johns- L
EMU- W
Boston U- W
Miami- W
Michigan St- L
Wiscy- L
Fordham- W
Seton Hall- W
Columbia- W
Maine- W
Maryland- W
Ohio State- W
Minny- W
Purdue- L
Northwestern- W
Nebraska- L
PSU- W
Indiana- L
Ohio state- L
Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Northwestern- W
Iowa- W
Mich State- L
Minny- W
Iowa- W
PSU- W
Indiana- W

I'll have whatever he's smoking. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

6-1 in "easy games" FDU, Drexel, E Mich, BU, Fordham, Columbia and Maine
2-10 in "10+ point road underdog games" at Mia, at WIS, at SHU, at PUR, at PSU, at OSU, at ILL, at NW, at MSU, at Iowa, at IU
2-4 in "winnable underdogs 4-9 pt dogs" SJU, Mich State, at MIN, NEB, IU, MICH
2-3 in "toss ups (2 pt favorite thru 3.5 point dogs) MD, OSU, NW, IOWA, PSU
12-18

smells like
7-3
5-15
1-1
13-19

EDIT November 7th.......
6-4
4-16
1-1
11-21

Looking at some of the B1G box scores and seeing a lot of experience getting minutes, getting rumblings some of newcomers not ready to make huge impact Day 1 and seeing some of lesser OOC foes aren't as bad as we have played in the past makes me lower expectations.

 

[dkostus]

6-1 in "easy games" FDU, Drexel, E Mich, BU, Fordham, Columbia and Maine
2-10 in "10+ point road underdog games" at Mia, at WIS, at SHU, at PUR, at PSU, at OSU, at ILL, at NW, at MSU, at Iowa, at IU
2-4 in "winnable underdogs 4-9 pt dogs" SJU, Mich State, at MIN, NEB, IU, MICH
2-3 in "toss ups (2 pt favorite thru 3.5 point dogs) MD, OSU, NW, IOWA, PSU
12-18

smells like
7-3
5-15
1-1
13-19

You think we'll be 10 point dogs at SHU? They lost a whole lot in those 4 seniors...

 

[higgins3]

I am thinking something like 12-13.

With a young squad, I expect more big ten wins later in the season. I never think teams like Wisconsin are a lock to win against a hungry Rutgers.

I am more confident Rutgers beats SHU than I am SJU.

I really feel confident that Baker is the right person to lead the team. After watching his video, I feel like the team has an emphasis on passing. What I really loved about that video was how Baker said " My moves are for the last seconds of the shot clock."

It will take a little time to develop chemistry. I only think four to five games.

Think about this. The majority of the players were the best on their team last year. Kids didn't mind when they isod plays because they knew that player gave themselves the best chance to score. Now, five players like that are on the team. Time to get selfless. It's a process.

I like the team in the big ten tournament at that part of the season. Many teams will be worn down. With Rutgers being young, they will still be energetic.

 

[RUsojo]

11-19 but hoping 20-10

 

[Scangg]

I think people are overstating how young the team really is and how much it will "hurt" us. Our starting 5 looks to have 0 freshman and 1 true sophomore in Geo.

The 3 freshman all look to be role players off the bench which doesn't scare me. McConell is a freshman but does that mean he's worse than Souf and Dadika? No, that's an upgrade. Mathis and Harper are basically guaranteed to be better shooters than Sanders Freeman and Williams horrific shooting percentages. If even one of them can live up to a 4 star as a solid role player and scorer off the bench that would be great.

Then you have 3 new comers who aren't freshman. Kiss and Shaq are actually upperclassman age wise. Kiss is the wild card to me. If he is a legit scorer and the "best shooter on the team" per Pike that will be the key to this season exceeding expectations. Geo cannot be the sole playmaker on the perimeter. Shaq is a bigger and stronger player than freeman and we have to assume he will have a higher FG% and lower TO rate. Myles was our best big towards the end of last season and his body and skills would only improve from there.

Put it all together and the 3 freshman aren't expected to shoulder the load. The 3 other newcomers are not freshman. The team is taller more athletic better shooting better passing. The real loss is Sanders 1 on 1 ability to create but I think that is offset by Geo Kiss and better ball movement. We lost Sanders Freeman Williams Souf Sa dadika and gained Kiss Myles Carter McConnell Harper Mathis. That's a net gain to me

 

[Scarlet Shack]

15-15

Find a way

 

[seels2662]

I really think it this is an NIT team


FDU- W
Drexel- W
St Johns- W
EMU- W
Boston U- W
Miami- L
Michigan St- L
Wiscy- L
Fordham- W
Seton Hall- L
Columbia- W
Maine- W
Maryland- W
Ohio State- W
Minny- L
Purdue- L
Northwestern- W
Nebraska- L
PSU- L
Indiana- W
Ohio state- L
Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Northwestern- L
Iowa- W
Mich State- L
Minny- W
Iowa- L
PSU- W
Indiana-L

OOC 8-2
B1G 8-12
Total 16-14

As the #10 seed in the B1G tournament, we beat the #7 seed and shock the #2 seed before falling to the #3 seed making our record 18-15. With such a hard schedule 18-15 will make the NIT. Stanford made the NIT last year at 18-15. Temple made it at 17-15.

 

[RutgHoops]

We've outperformed expectations since Coach P got here. I say he finds a way to get us to 16-14. I like the way you laid the postseason out @seels2662

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think people are overstating how young the team really is and how much it will "hurt" us. Our starting 5 looks to have 0 freshman and 1 true sophomore in Geo.

If we aren't young this year I am VERY VERY VERY worried for our future. If McConnell, Harper, Mathis and Johnson aren't combined getting a decent amount of minutes our program is in trouble.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Getting mathematical on experience
Minutes (not my prediction, but blended average of peoples expectations)
Baker 32
Eugene 28
Mathis 24
Kiss 24
Issa 24
Carter 20
Harper 12
McConnell 12
Johnson 12
Doorson 12

0-Freshman 60 30%
1-Sophomore 56 28%
2-Junior 72 36%
3-Senior 12 6%

0*30%=0
1*28%=.28
2*36%=.72
3*6%=.18

total 1.18 (that would rank 319 out of 351 looking at last year)

Last Year 1.58

 

[zebnatto]

If we aren't young this year I am VERY VERY VERY worried for our future. If McConnell, Harper, Mathis and Johnson aren't combined getting a decent amount of minutes our program is in trouble.

How do you define “combined getting a decent amount of minutes”?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

How do you define “combined getting a decent amount of minutes”?

how does 50+ sound?

In my mind Mathis, McConnell and Harper need to translate in to at least 2 impact players.

Assuming Issa doesn't make large strides this year (don't want to assume though) his minutes may be a barometer.

 

[Mr Magoo]

We've outperformed expectations since Coach P got here. I say he finds a way to get us to 16-14. I like the way you laid the postseason out @seels2662

I’m not trying to be an ass but do you really think we’ve outperformed expectations the past two seasons? Last place both years and other than our mini-run in the B1G tournament, I’m not seeing it. I like what he is building but we’ve lost more games we should have won than vice versa.

 

[Rutgers25]

how does 50+ sound?

In my mind Mathis, McConnell and Harper need to translate in to at least 2 impact players.

Assuming Issa doesn't make large strides this year (don't want to assume though) his minutes may be a barometer.

50+ is a lot

I think you’ll see Mathis at 20, Caleb at 10 and Johnson/Harper combined for 12. So 42

People are underestimating Kiss. He will be #2 in minutes in my opinion.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

50+ is a lot

I think you’ll see Mathis at 20, Caleb at 10 and Johnson/Harper combined for 12. So 42

People are underestimating Kiss. He will be #2 in minutes in my opinion.

After reading APP article and watching one on one drills starting to get a little concerned with that 50 number. I realize one on one drills not a game and a stupidly small sample size..

I am getting the sense you may be right about Kiss

 

[RutgHoops]

I’m not trying to be an ass but do you really think we’ve outperformed expectations the past two seasons? Last place both years and other than our mini-run in the B1G tournament, I’m not seeing it. I like what he is building but we’ve lost more games we should have won than vice versa.

Last year we beat SHU, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and Northwestern. We played @Michigan State to the final buzzer, went to the wire with an FSU team that made the Elite 8 and were tooth and nail with Purdue twice. Maybe we have different expectations but last years team played much better than I expected.

To me, in these first couple of years in judging an HC I try to see how much a coach has gotten out of his team. I am of the opinion that Coach Pikiell has gotten as much as one could possibly hope out of his players. The fact that the 2nd best player he inherited was Deshaun Freeman (who is example #1A of how much Coach P gets out his players, Eugene being example #1) is not a Coach P issue in my opinion.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Last year we beat SHU, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and Northwestern. We played @Michigan State to the final buzzer, went to the wire with an FSU team that made the Elite 8 and were tooth and nail with Purdue twice. Maybe we have different expectations but last years team played much better than I expected.

To me, in these first couple of years in judging an HC I try to see how much a coach has gotten out of his team. I am of the opinion that Coach Pikiell has gotten as much as one could possibly hope out of his players. The fact that the 2nd best player he inherited was Deshaun Freeman (who is example #1A of how much Coach P gets out his players, Eugene being example #1) is not a Coach P issue in my opinion.

Fair enough. I keep focusing on last place and I felt that no one other than Eugene improved from the prior year. I also felt that prior to the B1G tournament, the team had not improved during the season. However, I like what Pikiell is doing. It’s just going slower than I would have hoped. I also think he gets more love because it’s easy to compare it to our disastrous football program. This year will tell us a lot. Looking forward to it. I’m ok with a 12 win season as long as the team improves and recruiting picks up a bit. This team is easy to root for.

 

[PaKnight]

Fair enough. I keep focusing on last place and I felt that no one other than Eugene improved from the prior year. I also felt that prior to the B1G tournament, the team had not improved during the season. However, I like what Pikiell is doing. It’s just going slower than I would have hoped. I also think he gets more love because it’s easy to compare it to our disastrous football program. This year will tell us a lot. Looking forward to it. I’m ok with a 12 win season as long as the team improves and recruiting picks up a bit. This team is easy to root for.

Corey got better, Thiam got better, Mike Williams seemed to be nicked up all year.

 

[seels2662]

You guys are getting caught up on the freshmen. McConnell and Harper replace Bullock and Mensah on the team. They don't need to be game changers to make this team better.

 

[PaKnight]

You guys are getting caught up on the freshmen. McConnell and Harper replace Bullock and Mensah on the team. They don't need to be game changers to make this team better.

Can Mathis and Kiss replace Sanders and Williams?

 

[Goku]

Are we a better team than last year’s team? Who would win in a best of 3 matchup? I think if all of the players step up to our reasonable expectations then this team is better. That is why is still have some hope for .500. I guess it is very likely gonna be a year of early head scratching but hopefully it ends on a roll (and maybe another nice run in the conference tournament) to feel optimistic for a winning record in year 4. This year is gonna be the most painful in some ways

 

[dkostus]

I think defense and rebounding is a lot of effort. The guys coming back, along with Kiss and Myles who practiced all last year, should not have much of a drop off. Just Corey's point D, but then again I keep watching that clip of Geo stripping Carson Edwards and I'm not sure.

The offense cant be anything but better than last year. It's almost statistically impossible to be worse.

So the team should be better... schedule is just harder.

 

[MV9000]

You guys are getting caught up on the freshmen. McConnell and Harper replace Bullock and Mensah on the team. They don't need to be game changers to make this team better.

This is a very very good point. We legit had liabilities within those two players. I do think Bullock in shape could be okay in spot minutes, but that was not the case.

I think we improve from last year. Geo will take a step forward, Eugene will too.

Then you have a bonafide 4 star in Mathis, a 3/4 star in Harper, McConnell a big gurd, Shaq a top JUCO kid, Myles and Kiss who i think will be a game changer.

 

[Caliknight]

Not sure of the record, but I predict close, good games, a competitive team, player development, and continued recruiting success.

Wins will come.

 

[Scangg]

If we aren't young this year I am VERY VERY VERY worried for our future. If McConnell, Harper, Mathis and Johnson aren't combined getting a decent amount of minutes our program is in trouble.

I didn't say we weren't young. I said people were overstating just how young and the impact. Geo Kiss Thiam EO Shaq is not that young. Having freshman play some minutes off the bench isn't some terrible problem. If Mathis can be a quality 6th man and play solid we will be fine. 10 min of McConnell has you VERY VERY VERY worried?

 

[RutgHoops]

While I understand what you are driving at, if as outlined above, Rutgers is in the bottom 10-15% of "experience" out of 351 D-1A Mens basketball teams as measured by folks like Ken Pomeroy I believe that would constitute/fit the definition of a "young team".

 

[RUDieHard]

15 wins is my prediction

 

[seels2662]

Can Mathis and Kiss replace Sanders and Williams?

2017-18 Corey Sanders 15.2 Pts
2017-18 Geo Baker 10.8 Pts
2017-18 Williams 8.3 Pts

Thats 34.3 pts. We need the Sophmore Baker, Kiss and Mathis to combine for somewhere close to that. To me that its the biggest "if" of the season. That plus the backup Shaq Carter needs to be close to last years Omoyuri's 7.9 pts/5.0 rbs. Remember we are making big leaps in points at the 3 and 5 and a monstrous leap (possibly as much as 10 points!) in bench points.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

2017-18 Corey Sanders 15.2 Pts
2017-18 Geo Baker 10.8 Pts
2017-18 Williams 8.3 Pts

Thats 34.3 pts. We need the Sophmore Baker, Kiss and Mathis to combine for somewhere close to that. To me that its the biggest "if" of the season. That plus the backup Shaq Carter needs to be close to last years Omoyuri's 7.9 pts/5.0 rbs. Remember we are making big leaps in points at the 3 and 5 and a monstrous leap (possibly as much as 10 points!) in bench points.

We want to be in the 70 range over the course of the entire schedule assuming similar tempo, but being realistic.....
A blueprint could be
Baker 12
Mathis 12
Issa 9
Eugene 9
Kiss 9
McConnell 4
Harper 4
other bigs 8

that is 67

wild guesses on my part, but I think scoring will be very balanced. don't worry about placing points on various players. If each spot 1 thru 4 score 15 and the 5 scores 8 we score 68.

Last year (rough estimates as numbers are interchangable)
1- 16 (sanders/souf)
2- 14 (baker/williams)
3- 12 (issa/williams)
4- 18 (gene and freeman)
5- 5

 

[RUinOhio]

how good is OSU? at least 3 people picking a W...

 

[seels2662]

We want to be in the 70 range over the course of the entire schedule assuming similar tempo, but being realistic.....
A blueprint could be
Baker 12
Mathis 12
Issa 9
Eugene 9
Kiss 9
McConnell 4
Harper 4
other bigs 8

that is 67

wild guesses on my part, but I think scoring will be very balanced. don't worry about placing points on various players. If each spot 1 thru 4 score 15 and the 5 scores 8 we score 68.

Last year (rough estimates as numbers are interchangable)
1- 16 (sanders/souf)
2- 14 (baker/williams)
3- 12 (issa/williams)
4- 18 (gene and freeman)
5- 5

It's going to be so tough this year trying to do it by position because so many people play multiple positions. Are you going to split Harper's points 4 ways? You really have to do it by person. Using your model to get to 70 I would bump Geo to 14.5 (asking 3.5 more points, now he's the main scorer, not going to hit the freshman wall, etc.) and Omoyuri getting 11 points (asking him to take Freemans numbers now that he's the starter is not a big stretch to me). That's 71.5 but I think you have Mathis/Kiss slightly high bringing it down to 70.

 

[BaseballFan913]

Undefeated, unscored upon.

 

[Scangg]

We want to be in the 70 range over the course of the entire schedule assuming similar tempo, but being realistic.....
A blueprint could be
Baker 12
Mathis 12
Issa 9
Eugene 9
Kiss 9
McConnell 4
Harper 4
other bigs 8

that is 67

wild guesses on my part, but I think scoring will be very balanced. don't worry about placing points on various players. If each spot 1 thru 4 score 15 and the 5 scores 8 we score 68.

Last year (rough estimates as numbers are interchangable)
1- 16 (sanders/souf)
2- 14 (baker/williams)
3- 12 (issa/williams)
4- 18 (gene and freeman)
5- 5

I would switch Kiss and Mathis there and add a slight bump to Geo and EO

 

[Degaz-RU]

I wrote this in another thread, but it's equally applicable to this one:

My hope is that we ride an inside-out game of Baker and Omoruyi, with Thiam and Kiss sprinkled in as third and fourth offensive options.

I'd like to see Baker at 14 ppg and Eugene at 12 ppg, basically replacing what we lost from Sanders and Freeman. Then Kiss has to step up and at least replace Mike Williams' 8 ppg, and Thiam has to increase his own production from 7 ppg to 10 ppg.

That's 44 points from your top four scorers, and I have to think we'll be able to add another 22 ppg from the rest of the roster (Doucoure, Doorson, Carter, Johnson, Mathis, McConnell, Harper). That would be 66 ppg overall, which is, I think, six points better than last season.

But it all starts with Geo and Gene.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Asking Baker to play out of position as PG where he will be responsible for the offense to flow AND asking him to score 14 PPG is way too much!

Unless there is massive improvement scoring is not what Eugene brings to the table. Asking 12 PPG is a bit much

 

[PaKnight]

Asking Baker to play out of position as PG where he will be responsible for the offense to flow AND asking him to score 14 PPG is way too much!

Unless there is massive improvement scoring is not what Eugene brings to the table. Asking 12 PPG is a bit much

Eugene scored 7.9 in 21.7 minutes a game, he would score 11 points at that rate in 30 minutes per game. All he would need to do is make one more foul shot a game to get to 12 points.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Eugene scored 7.9 in 21.7 minutes a game, he would score 11 points at that rate in 30 minutes per game. All he would need to do is make one more foul shot a game to get to 12 points.

My main point is I think/hope we have weapons at other positions and better ball movement. I'd like to think the 2 and 3 positions on the floor can score a lot more than they did last year. I'd love to see Kiss, Issa and Mathis combine for 30+ PPG. I am hoping McConnell plays more than backing up Baker at the PG and Harper can play 10+ MPG.

Eugene is a very good passer and I'd love to see him get good shots for others AND put the ball in the basket.

As I said before if we can get equal scoring 1 thru 4 on the floor (say 16 points) you won't see anyone averaging over 12 PPG. Maybe I am being unrealistic or putting too high of expectation on the newcomers.