A wiseman (maybe a bookie) once said: 1 game does not a season make. This was a game RU should have won and did. It's early and the real tests will start soon + the BIG schedule. The other troubling factor in the equation is road games. Does history repeat itself or does something new start this season? That's why my prognostication is that low. BTW RUs newcomers looked very good vs FDU. For RU to succeed this season they'll have to continue to play that well.
Honestly, a lot of turnovers and mistakes were made.vs FDU....RU didn't play it's A game through most of the 1st half.
Without knowing anything about what may happen with the season, this will be a roller coaster. We could play significantly better in some aspects and not shoot as well and you might get a similar 40 minutes out of this group.
The easy answer on the road games is an absolute truth....the B1G has real legitimate campus arenas and home court advantages are in play at almost every stop. At the same time, RU has a bunch of unknowns and talent that."doesn't know any better", so who knows whether a road game will phase some of them or all of them....some players play better at home, others actually become more focused on the road.
Hawk, wondering if these two games have changed your opinion on Eugene. 6 and 6?
So, I had no idea what we had before the season, so I saw no point in making a prediction, but having seen two games, I'm going with 39-0 and national championship. Ok, seriously, I'll go with 15-15/8-12. Upside is hard to quantify - if we can gel defensively, in particular, while continuing to rain from downtown and share the ball, we could be a bubble team with 18-19 wins and this schedule. But that's an awful lot to ask for with a very young team. Downside isn't that low, IMO, maybe 13-17/6-14.
Last edited:
lets get through st johns game
As Hillary said to the Committees investigating the aftermath of the Bengazi debacle - "What difference does it make?" BTW, I base my opinions on my experience as a player and coach on several different levels.
Lol are you kidding? If you actually were a player and coach you would know there is a huge difference between box score watching and actually seeing a team play. Come on now. Secondly, don't bring politics to the bball board
My head says 13-17 overall and 6-14 in the Big but my heart says 15-15 and 6-8 in the Big as our excellent coaching, home crowds and a Rockin’ RAC home court advantage returns and allow us to steal 2 additional games and we make it to the NIT this year.
Last edited:
The set/jump shot looks completely different and better. It's 2 games but if Eugene continues to take his guy off the dribble and gets room and knocks down 1 3 pointer per game, he goes from 6 to 12 PPG.....it takes RU from 12 wins to 16 to 17 wins instantly.
24 points is way beyond anyone's expectations. He has 6 3's.....i would have signed up for 1 3 per game or 30 for the year. He is on pace for 30 before we get to January.
Sure, but then that would negate the nature of “predictions”.
Updated Probabilities as of 11/12 (2-0 start)
Total Record:
7-23 = 0.1%
8-22 = 0.3%
9-21 = 1.3%
10-20 = 3.5%
11-19 = 7.3%
12-18 = 12.0%
13-17 = 16.2%
14-16 = 17.7%
15-15 = 16.0%
16-14 = 11.9%
17-13 = 7.4%
18-12 = 3.8%
19-11 = 1.6%
20-10 = 0.6%
21-9 = 0.2%
Conference Record:
1-19 = 0.2%
2-18 = 1.0%
3-17 = 3.6%
4-16 = 8.5%
5-15 = 14.6%
6-14 = 19.1%
7-13 = 19.4%
8-12 = 15.5%
9-11 = 9.9%
10-10 = 5.1%
11-9 = 2.1%
12-8 = 0.7%
13-7 = 0.2%
---------------------------------
Nightmare Result: 10-20 (3-17)
Horrible Result: 11-19 (4-16)
Below Average Result: 13-17 (5-15)
Base Case: 14-16 (7-13)
Above Average Result: 16-14 (8-12)
Great Result: 17-13 (9-11)
Dream Result: 19-11 (11-9)
Total Record:
7-23 = 0.1%
8-22 = 0.3%
9-21 = 1.3%
10-20 = 3.5%
11-19 = 7.3%
12-18 = 12.0%
13-17 = 16.2%
14-16 = 17.7%
15-15 = 16.0%
16-14 = 11.9%
17-13 = 7.4%
18-12 = 3.8%
19-11 = 1.6%
20-10 = 0.6%
21-9 = 0.2%
Conference Record:
1-19 = 0.2%
2-18 = 1.0%
3-17 = 3.6%
4-16 = 8.5%
5-15 = 14.6%
6-14 = 19.1%
7-13 = 19.4%
8-12 = 15.5%
9-11 = 9.9%
10-10 = 5.1%
11-9 = 2.1%
12-8 = 0.7%
13-7 = 0.2%
---------------------------------
Nightmare Result: 10-20 (3-17)
Horrible Result: 11-19 (4-16)
Below Average Result: 13-17 (5-15)
Base Case: 14-16 (7-13)
Above Average Result: 16-14 (8-12)
Great Result: 17-13 (9-11)
Dream Result: 19-11 (11-9)
Update 11/18/2018, Currently 2-1 (0-0)
Total Record
6-24 = 0.1%
7-23 = 0.4%
8-22 = 1.6%
9-21 = 4.4%
10-20 = 9.1%
11-19 = 14.3%
12-18 = 17.9%
13-17 = 18.0%
14-16 = 14.8%
15-15 = 9.9%
16-14 = 5.5%
17-13 = 2.5%
18-12 = 1.0%
19-11 = 0.3%
20-10 = 0.1%
Conference Record
0-20 = 0.1%
1-19 = 0.7%
2-18 = 2.9%
3-17 = 7.8%
4-16 = 14.2%
5-15 = 19.4%
6-14 = 20.1%
7-13 = 16.2%
8-12 = 10.4%
9-11 = 5.3%
10-10 = 2.2%
11-9 = 0.7%
12-8 = 0.2%
1st Percentile = 8-22 (2-18)
10th Percentile = 10-20 (3-17)
25th Percentile = 11-19 (4-16)
50th Percentile = 13-17 (6-14)
75th Percentile = 14-16 (7-13)
90th Percentile = 15-15 (8-12)
99th Percentile = 18-12 (10-10)
Total Record
6-24 = 0.1%
7-23 = 0.4%
8-22 = 1.6%
9-21 = 4.4%
10-20 = 9.1%
11-19 = 14.3%
12-18 = 17.9%
13-17 = 18.0%
14-16 = 14.8%
15-15 = 9.9%
16-14 = 5.5%
17-13 = 2.5%
18-12 = 1.0%
19-11 = 0.3%
20-10 = 0.1%
Conference Record
0-20 = 0.1%
1-19 = 0.7%
2-18 = 2.9%
3-17 = 7.8%
4-16 = 14.2%
5-15 = 19.4%
6-14 = 20.1%
7-13 = 16.2%
8-12 = 10.4%
9-11 = 5.3%
10-10 = 2.2%
11-9 = 0.7%
12-8 = 0.2%
1st Percentile = 8-22 (2-18)
10th Percentile = 10-20 (3-17)
25th Percentile = 11-19 (4-16)
50th Percentile = 13-17 (6-14)
75th Percentile = 14-16 (7-13)
90th Percentile = 15-15 (8-12)
99th Percentile = 18-12 (10-10)
Total:
7-23 = 0.1%
8-22 = 0.6%
9-21 = 2.1%
10-20 = 5.5%
11-19 = 10.5%
12-18 = 15.7%
13-17 = 18.5%
14-16 = 17.5%
15-15 = 13.6%
16-14 = 8.6%
17-13 = 4.5%
18-12 = 1.9%
19-11 = 0.7%
20-10 = 0.2%
Conference:
1-19 = 0.4%
2-18 = 1.9%
3-17 = 5.6%
4-16 = 11.5%
5-15 = 17.4%
6-14 = 20.0%
7-13 = 18.0%
8-12 = 12.8%
9-11 = 7.3%
10-10 = 3.3%
11-9 = 1.2%
12-8 = 0.4%
13-7 = 0.1%
7-23 = 0.1%
8-22 = 0.6%
9-21 = 2.1%
10-20 = 5.5%
11-19 = 10.5%
12-18 = 15.7%
13-17 = 18.5%
14-16 = 17.5%
15-15 = 13.6%
16-14 = 8.6%
17-13 = 4.5%
18-12 = 1.9%
19-11 = 0.7%
20-10 = 0.2%
Conference:
1-19 = 0.4%
2-18 = 1.9%
3-17 = 5.6%
4-16 = 11.5%
5-15 = 17.4%
6-14 = 20.0%
7-13 = 18.0%
8-12 = 12.8%
9-11 = 7.3%
10-10 = 3.3%
11-9 = 1.2%
12-8 = 0.4%
13-7 = 0.1%
No need for a do over from me. I correctly picked our OOC.
However, with the way we've been shooting, I do think we will struggle to get to 6-14 in league.
I can't believe I never posted my season prediction thread here but I would have them 7-5 at this point...loss at Miami, win at Fordham. I thought 5-15 in league for 12-18 overall with 1-1 split in Big 10 tourney for 13-19...might be good to revisit league schedule again
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Im gonna say 3-17 in conference play and we finish 10-21 after getting bounced first round of big ten tourney
There's no game on the remaining schedule that RU will be favored by Vegas. There's 18 games and I can see home games vs Norrhwestern in January and Penn State in early March being the closest ones where RU could break the string of not ever being favored in a B1G game.
To win 5 to 6 games would mean there are games where we knock down shots and defend at the same time and that's happened very early in the season, last seen vs Eastern Michigan.
Since the roster has changed in feel in the last 3 to 4 games, the conservative side will cringe when trying to predict.
It literally comes down to not wins and losses but how much heavy lifting can the frosh add. I like the shot attempts we are getting in most games, just comes down to the ups and downs of underclassmen (which includes Baker and Kiss).
5 wins would be a tremendous achievement considering how much better the B1G actually is.
To win 5 to 6 games would mean there are games where we knock down shots and defend at the same time and that's happened very early in the season, last seen vs Eastern Michigan.
Since the roster has changed in feel in the last 3 to 4 games, the conservative side will cringe when trying to predict.
It literally comes down to not wins and losses but how much heavy lifting can the frosh add. I like the shot attempts we are getting in most games, just comes down to the ups and downs of underclassmen (which includes Baker and Kiss).
5 wins would be a tremendous achievement considering how much better the B1G actually is.
While it is possible we will be underdogs in all 18 (I think 16 of 18) we won't be big underdogs in almost all of the games. I strongly believe as we are in the latter 2/3 of the season we will pick up a win or 2 based on our strong chemistry and Pikiell having 2 guys at each position. The dog days of late January and February mark a few wins down when our opponents arent playing 100%
I’ll stick with my prediction. Unfortunately wins matter and we will have the least amount of wins in conference again. Hopefully the Pike will leverage the facility to successfully improve recruiting in 2020 because it may be hard to sell “development” after 3 last place conference finishes.
Yeah, this would be my best case scenario. Hard to imagine we go winless in conference. Worst case scenario 8-22.
#106 Rutgers
#274 F Dickinson : W 90-55 (1-0)
#244 Drexel : W 95-66 (2-0)
#25 St John's : L 65-84 (2-1)
#223 E Michigan : W 63-36 (3-1)
#253 Boston Univ : W 54-44 (4-1)
at #92 Miami FL : W 57-54 (5-1)
#8 Michigan St : L 67-78 (5-2, 0-1)
at #22 Wisconsin : L 64-69 (5-3, 0-2)
at #214 Fordham : L 70-78 (5-4, 0-2)
at #30 Seton Hall : L 66-72 (5-5, 0-2)
#311 Columbia : W 68-65 OT (6-5, 0-2)
#400 Maine : W 70-55 (7-5, 0-2)
-------
#31 Maryland : 26.23%
#15 Ohio St : 17.25%
at #29 Minnesota : 19.27%
at #33 Purdue : 20.38%
#62 Northwestern : 41.08%
#20 Nebraska : 20.22%
at #73 Penn St : 38.02%
#21 Indiana : 21.13%
at #15 Ohio St : 12.72%
#3 Michigan : 9.90%
at #143 Illinois : 52.91%
at #62 Northwestern : 32.77%
#39 Iowa : 32.46%
at #8 Michigan St : 10.60%
#29 Minnesota : 25.44%
at #39 Iowa : 25.15%
#73 Penn St : 46.72%
at #21 Indiana : 15.78%
4-5 wins
#274 F Dickinson : W 90-55 (1-0)
#244 Drexel : W 95-66 (2-0)
#25 St John's : L 65-84 (2-1)
#223 E Michigan : W 63-36 (3-1)
#253 Boston Univ : W 54-44 (4-1)
at #92 Miami FL : W 57-54 (5-1)
#8 Michigan St : L 67-78 (5-2, 0-1)
at #22 Wisconsin : L 64-69 (5-3, 0-2)
at #214 Fordham : L 70-78 (5-4, 0-2)
at #30 Seton Hall : L 66-72 (5-5, 0-2)
#311 Columbia : W 68-65 OT (6-5, 0-2)
#400 Maine : W 70-55 (7-5, 0-2)
-------
#31 Maryland : 26.23%
#15 Ohio St : 17.25%
at #29 Minnesota : 19.27%
at #33 Purdue : 20.38%
#62 Northwestern : 41.08%
#20 Nebraska : 20.22%
at #73 Penn St : 38.02%
#21 Indiana : 21.13%
at #15 Ohio St : 12.72%
#3 Michigan : 9.90%
at #143 Illinois : 52.91%
at #62 Northwestern : 32.77%
#39 Iowa : 32.46%
at #8 Michigan St : 10.60%
#29 Minnesota : 25.44%
at #39 Iowa : 25.15%
#73 Penn St : 46.72%
at #21 Indiana : 15.78%
4-5 wins
Current Ranking #106
Record (Conference Record) : Probability => Final Ranking
7-23 (0-20) : 0.3% => #215
8-22 (1-19) : 2.3% => #183
9-21 (2-18) : 7.6% => #162
10-20 (3-17) : 15.3% => #148
11-19 (4-16) : 21.2% => #125
12-18 (5-15) : 21.3% => #101
13-17 (6-14) : 16.1% => #79
14-16 (7-13) : 9.4% => #68
15-15 (8-12) : 4.3% => #56
16-14 (9-11) : 1.6% => #43
17-13 (10-10) : 0.4% => #37
18-12 (11-9) : 0.1% => #35
Record (Conference Record) : Probability => Final Ranking
7-23 (0-20) : 0.3% => #215
8-22 (1-19) : 2.3% => #183
9-21 (2-18) : 7.6% => #162
10-20 (3-17) : 15.3% => #148
11-19 (4-16) : 21.2% => #125
12-18 (5-15) : 21.3% => #101
13-17 (6-14) : 16.1% => #79
14-16 (7-13) : 9.4% => #68
15-15 (8-12) : 4.3% => #56
16-14 (9-11) : 1.6% => #43
17-13 (10-10) : 0.4% => #37
18-12 (11-9) : 0.1% => #35
Last edited:
Note that this schedule is much tougher than last years. Against this schedule, last year's team's expected record would be 8.81-21.19 (3.15-16.85). We definitely should not evaluate improvement or lack thereof simply by comparing records.
Thought it would be interesting to revisit the season prediction thread, and some of the things said here.
Okay, I missed this by one win. On Thiam and Kiss, I think it's safe to say EVERYBODY overestimated their expected contributions. But they were supplanted by the freshmen, and I think everyone underestimated THEIR contributions (with the possible exception of Mathis - he probably "met" expectations.
Safe to say the Freshmen Four were a smashing success this year, and that our future is in very good hands.
Hit the mark on Geo and Gene. See my above comments on Thiam and Kiss.
I think the season played out as I suspected in terms of Geo and Gene being the leaders and go-to guys. Gene would have done even better if not for his injury, which really limited his mobility the last half of the B1G schedule.
Almost, Shack. Missed 15-15 by one miracle 3-pt bank shot by Iowa. Sigh.
This was a good take, FIG. And we hit the bull case!
6 and 6 for Eugene. Oy. (Sorry, Hawk, had to bring this up again - that was a really bad take on what Gene would bring this year).
Okay, I missed this by one win. On Thiam and Kiss, I think it's safe to say EVERYBODY overestimated their expected contributions. But they were supplanted by the freshmen, and I think everyone underestimated THEIR contributions (with the possible exception of Mathis - he probably "met" expectations.
Safe to say the Freshmen Four were a smashing success this year, and that our future is in very good hands.
Hit the mark on Geo and Gene. See my above comments on Thiam and Kiss.
I think the season played out as I suspected in terms of Geo and Gene being the leaders and go-to guys. Gene would have done even better if not for his injury, which really limited his mobility the last half of the B1G schedule.
Almost, Shack. Missed 15-15 by one miracle 3-pt bank shot by Iowa. Sigh.
This was a good take, FIG. And we hit the bull case!
6 and 6 for Eugene. Oy. (Sorry, Hawk, had to bring this up again - that was a really bad take on what Gene would bring this year).
Gene has overachieved but as you saw when the season progressed, the team is not reliant on him to score and win....he's our toughest and most determined player, but is not going to continue to lead in touches and shot attempts next year. Everything that needed happen to overachieve, was based on a collective effort, but absolutely not a EO reliant team to win.
I don't know how anyone could watch the freshman perform this year and equate 7 B1G wins to Eugene being the driving force behind that...nothing could be further from reality.
This trend will continue into the offseason, summer and next year. This class, plus the next one incoming, should transition RU to a point where 12 to 14 Eugene shot attempts almost all from 2 point range, isn't a path towards winning and closing the gap between RU and the rest of the B1G.....dont equate PPG and shot attempts to being effective....they're 2 vastly different things.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Looking back to my OP I had 15-15 (7-13). But I think we performed better than I expected despite us actually going 14-16. Record isnt the end all be all
I have a bear, base and bull case. Of course I was going to be right. It is like playing Pick 3 with 1,000 unique entries.
My bull case record happened, but a lot of the things didn’t occur.
Chemistry I mentioned and I think is more important than most would give credit for
My bull case record happened, but a lot of the things didn’t occur.
Chemistry I mentioned and I think is more important than most would give credit for
