Time to Give Greg Schiano an Extension

[fluoxetine]

IDK. I found this on that quote: "Bill Parcells will be the first to tell you that if your team goes 3-13, it won't matter how good your plan was, or how many of your players were injured, or how nice of a person you are. You were hired to win, and now a new coach will have the opportunity to give it a try."

Read More: You Are What Your Record Says You Are | https://retro1025.com/you-are-what-your-record-says-you-are/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

This, IMO, is more a comment on the realities of the coaching profession than about the realities of football. There is a lot of variance that goes into a W/L record and while a fanbase certainly may not adjust for injuries, luck, or progress that is visible in other ways that doesn't mean that they shouldn't.

The comment has since been misconstrued by people to mean that W/L record only is the correct way to look at a team's performance.

IMO, it's one thing if you had a bunch of close losses, but still you are paid to win, and not point to how close your losses were, or as al does in here, point to an "improved" statistic of total defense (yards given up). Points matter.

Points matter, but not all points are attributable to the defense. And points also come in a context. I think Al is off the reservation here in general, but his points about the defense, while exaggerated, are not entirely wrong. Even Massey ratings, which scores offense/defense purely based on points has us #66 in defense. This rating (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overalldef/2022) which corrects for things like field position and points given up by the offense has us #48.

Again, these are not impressive numbers for a power 5 team, but they also aren't dumpster fire numbers. Real progress has been made on the defensive side of the ball.

Another troubling sign is the margin(s) of loss 2022 vs. 2021 (not looking at 2020, covid year):
Penn State: 45 vs 28 pts (17 points worse)
Michigan: 35 pts vs 7 pts (28 points worse)
Ohio State: 39 pts vs 39 pts (Way too high in any case)
Michigan State: 7pts vs 18 pts (MSU took a step back this year)
Maryland: 37 pts vs 24 pts (7 points worse)

Also:
2021- lost to a horrific 1-8 Northwestern
2022- lost to a bad Nebraska at home; pummeled by a mediocre Minnesota

Aside from the record, the margins of loss were unacceptable or in all cases except Michigan State, which took a huge step back in 2022, increased.

There is no reason to reward this record, whether it is win/loss, margin of loss, or any purported Pyrrhic statistical "victory."

There are a lot of troubling signs and I am far from sold on Schiano 2.0. I think in our case the W/L record pretty accurately reflects the quality of the team. I just don't think it's true in all cases and I think looking deeper is generally useful.

 

[fluoxetine]

Have you been to other campuses?! Have you seen other facilities? It’s easy to sit here and Post respectability is not the end goal, but since this fanbase won’t provide support other than buying tickets and parking passes,

Stop. You just way oversell this stuff.. if programs like Cincinnati and UCF can get to the level they're at in the American Athletic Conference, if ****ing Boise St. can run off 7 years in a row of teams that would've been in the CFP had they played in that era, then Rutgers can also do this. Maybe we can never be Ohio State, but we can be Iowa or Wisconsin. Not tomorrow, but eventually.

it’s the only realistic goal we have. Once we get to respectability, we can think about how to become a contender, but for now, it’s a long ways off.

On bolded I agree, but you're in here posting that we need to extend a coach who has barely moved us towards respectability for the accomplishments of... hiring his fourth choice for OC and winning 11 games in 2006?

The following schools have better football teams than Rutgers this year:
Tulane
South Dakota St
Troy
Cincinnati
Air Force
Fresno State
Houston
BYU
UCF
North Dakota St
Boise St
UT San Antonio
Memphis
James Madison
East Carolina
SMU
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Montana State
Cal State Sacramento
South Alabama
Toledo
Ohio
Navy
UAB
Appalachian St

You are trying to tell me it's because they are all killing us in the facilities and/or NIL arms race? GMAFB. It shouldn't take until 20 ****ing 25 to create an offense that isn't a complete embarrassment.

 

[fluoxetine]

Also, and I know we've been over this before, but the accomplishments from Schiano 1.0 that you continually harp on are almost entirely just sustained mediocrity. He made bowls.. whoop-de-****ing-do. 2006 was his only top 25 team out of 14 tries and counting. From 2005-2011 we were 25-24 in conference play. This is just not that impressive!

 

[Knight Shift]

This, IMO, is more a comment on the realities of the coaching profession than about the realities of football. There is a lot of variance that goes into a W/L record and while a fanbase certainly may not adjust for injuries, luck, or progress that is visible in other ways that doesn't mean that they shouldn't.

The comment has since been misconstrued by people to mean that W/L record only is the correct way to look at a team's performance.

Points matter, but not all points are attributable to the defense. And points also come in a context. I think Al is off the reservation here in general, but his points about the defense, while exaggerated, are not entirely wrong. Even Massey ratings, which scores offense/defense purely based on points has us #66 in defense. This rating (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overalldef/2022) which corrects for things like field position and points given up by the offense has us #48.

Again, these are not impressive numbers for a power 5 team, but they also aren't dumpster fire numbers. Real progress has been made on the defensive side of the ball.

There are a lot of troubling signs and I am far from sold on Schiano 2.0. I think in our case the W/L record pretty accurately reflects the quality of the team. I just don't think it's true in all cases and I think looking deeper is generally useful.

Despite my barrage of negativity in these threads by al, who has seemed to bring out the worst fan in me (that's on me, not al), and despite my you are what your record says you are quote, I do recognize that the QB situation was messed up from the get go in 2022 with Noah being injured. I remember hearing about this about 2 weeks before the news broke in a private dinner, but I thought to myself that this would give Gavin a chance to develop (the way EJ Warner did over the course of 12 entire games). Well, that thought went out the window when Gavin was injured in the Temple game. That was a real kick in the nuts to the team.

Simon got thrown into the fire, but t his was his third year in the program and sink or swim for him. Despite what others may say, other than the Nebraska game, he was not horrible considering the OL, the TEs and the receivers.

The final nail in the offense was losing Samuel Brown V.

Excuses, excuses. Yeah, they don't win games, but one wonders what might have been if we had a fully healthy Noah, Gavin and Samuel Brown V the entire year.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Despite my barrage of negativity in these threads by al, who has seemed to bring out the worst fan in me (that's on me, not al), and despite my you are what your record says you are quote, I do recognize that the QB situation was messed up from the get go in 2022 with Noah being injured. I remember hearing about this about 2 weeks before the news broke in a private dinner, but I thought to myself that this would give Gavin a chance to develop (the way EJ Warner did over the course of 12 entire games). Well, that thought went out the window when Gavin was injured in the Temple game. That was a real kick in the nuts to the team.

Simon got thrown into the fire, but t his was his third year in the program and sink or swim for him. Despite what others may say, other than the Nebraska game, he was not horrible considering the OL, the TEs and the receivers.

The final nail in the offense was losing Samuel Brown V.

Excuses, excuses. Yeah, they don't win games, but one wonders what might have been if we had a fully healthy Noah, Gavin and Samuel Brown V the entire year.

you've made some good points in this thread but one thing I have to disagree with and that is NV. The fact that he was pegged to be our starter in year 3 should be raising alarms bells. We'll lose with him, we won't win with him

 

[Knight Shift]

you've made some good points in this thread but one thing I have to disagree with and that is NV. The fact that he was pegged to be our starter in year 3 should be raising alarms bells. We'll lose with him, we won't win with him

Fair enough. The plan was always murky. IIRC, Greg was saying all three were ready to start? Indeed, development of the young QBs was not good, and had it all worked out, giving Gavin more reps and having Noah available to come in when Gavin was having a bad game would have been ideal, but that all got thrown out the window. Unfortunately, Gavin did not get many reps in 2022, and certainly not many quality reps. Hoping Kirk C can do something more on development- can't do worse than the last 2 years.

 

[rutgersal]

IDK. I found this on that quote: "Bill Parcells will be the first to tell you that if your team goes 3-13, it won't matter how good your plan was, or how many of your players were injured, or how nice of a person you are. You were hired to win, and now a new coach will have the opportunity to give it a try."

Read More: You Are What Your Record Says You Are | https://retro1025.com/you-are-what-your-record-says-you-are/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

IMO, it's one thing if you had a bunch of close losses, but still you are paid to win, and not point to how close your losses were, or as al does in here, point to an "improved" statistic of total defense (yards given up). Points matter.

Another troubling sign is the margin(s) of loss 2022 vs. 2021 (not looking at 2020, covid year):
Penn State: 45 vs 28 pts (17 points worse)
Michigan: 35 pts vs 7 pts (28 points worse)
Ohio State: 39 pts vs 39 pts (Way too high in any case)
Michigan State: 7pts vs 18 pts (MSU took a step back this year)
Maryland: 37 pts vs 24 pts (7 points worse)

Also:
2021- lost to a horrific 1-8 Northwestern
2022- lost to a bad Nebraska at home; pummeled by a mediocre Minnesota

Aside from the record, the margins of loss were unacceptable or in all cases except Michigan State, which took a huge step back in 2022, increased.

There is no reason to reward this record, whether it is win/loss, margin of loss, or any purported Pyrrhic statistical "victory."

Apples and Oranges.

NFL Teams have a draft they can use to improve the team. The worst teams have an opportunity to draft the best college players. College Teams have to recruit the best players they can, and Rutgers does not have an opportunity to recruit the best high school recruits. This is why building on a college level takes longer.

The key question is Rutgers Football on the path to being successful? I would unequivocally State Yes.

 

[Knight Shift]

Apples and Oranges.

NFL Teams have a draft they can use to improve the team. The worst teams have an opportunity to draft the best college players. College Teams have to recruit the best players they can, and Rutgers does not have an opportunity to recruit the best high school recruits. This is why building on a college level takes longer.

The key question is Rutgers Football on the path to being successful? I would unequivocally State Yes.

You would say that, because you are an eternal optimistic.
But it is fair to conclude that based on the past three years, there is scant evidence that Rutgers football is on a path to being successful. Is there hope? Sure. There always is hope. I will wait and see. To be clear, I still support Greg as head coach and hope that he succeeds. However, it is way premature to even talk about an extension when he has 5 years left on his excessive 8 year contract. At the end of year 5 would be an appropriate time to consider an extension.

 

[MADHAT1]

You would say that, because you are an eternal optimistic.
But it is fair to conclude that based on the past three years, there is scant evidence that Rutgers football is on a path to being successful. Is there hope? Sure. There always is hope. I will wait and see. To be clear, I still support Greg as head coach and hope that he succeeds. However, it is way premature to even talk about an extension when he has 5 years left on his excessive 8 year contract. At the end of year 5 would be an appropriate time to consider an extension.

Maybe the talent on roster from the class of 2021 (ranked #32) and the 4oth rated class of 2022 will provide the talent that will improve the program and overcome the lack of talent on roster Greg2 inherited.
Those inclined might use the class of 2023 against that thought, but that might just be a bump in the road in the 2 step forward one step back path to building a winning program.
As for extension, a wait for success approach might be best .

2021 gave the impression of we could expect a winning program soon, but the way 2022 turned out was a step backwards in the expect success department.

 

[brgRC90]

Only Rutgers fans would be satisfied with a 102 finish after 3 years.

 

[fluoxetine]

We aren't satisfied though. Even Al doesn't seem satisfied tbh, just overly optimistic for the future. Everyone else is somewhere in the region from unsatisfied and very angry to unsatisfied and cautiously optimistic.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Fair enough. The plan was always murky. IIRC, Greg was saying all three were ready to start? Indeed, development of the young QBs was not good, and had it all worked out, giving Gavin more reps and having Noah available to come in when Gavin was having a bad game would have been ideal, but that all got thrown out the window. Unfortunately, Gavin did not get many reps in 2022, and certainly not many quality reps. Hoping Kirk C can do something more on development- can't do worse than the last 2 years.

you and I are in more agreement than not, I believe you and I see this for what it is. My real concern, my major red flag is that he was comfortable with NV as the starter. He should be looking to replace each position with someone better but he doesn't, he's comfortable, he ,knows the expectations are not high and he knows half the fanbase adores him like a battered wife. Any decent coach would have been on the recruiting trail, talking to anyone and everyone to upgrade the single most important position on the field and yet he wasn't.

Now we've got young qbs, no development, no one in the wings that can manage the team with any real experience or talent deserving of a p5 starting qb. we're fked

 

[RUTGERS95]

Only Rutgers fans would be satisfied with a 102 finish after 3 years.

it's embarrassing to be associated with these fans to be honest. If they could see just how pathetic they are in their complacency and accepting of less than mediocre, they'd not want to look in the mirror.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Stop. You just way oversell this stuff.. if programs like Cincinnati and UCF can get to the level they're at in the American Athletic Conference, if ****ing Boise St. can run off 7 years in a row of teams that would've been in the CFP had they played in that era, then Rutgers can also do this. Maybe we can never be Ohio State, but we can be Iowa or Wisconsin. Not tomorrow, but eventually.

On bolded I agree, but you're in here posting that we need to extend a coach who has barely moved us towards respectability for the accomplishments of... hiring his fourth choice for OC and winning 11 games in 2006?

The following schools have better football teams than Rutgers this year:
Tulane
South Dakota St
Troy
Cincinnati
Air Force
Fresno State
Houston
BYU
UCF
North Dakota St
Boise St
UT San Antonio
Memphis
James Madison
East Carolina
SMU
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Montana State
Cal State Sacramento
South Alabama
Toledo
Ohio
Navy
UAB
Appalachian St

You are trying to tell me it's because they are all killing us in the facilities and/or NIL arms race? GMAFB. It shouldn't take until 20 ****ing 25 to create an offense that isn't a complete embarrassment.

Waisting your fingers on this nonesence. But good job trying.

 

[ScarletCrimson]

Not gonna lie. I missed this.

 

[RUforlife]

Apples and Oranges.

NFL Teams have a draft they can use to improve the team. The worst teams have an opportunity to draft the best college players. College Teams have to recruit the best players they can, and Rutgers does not have an opportunity to recruit the best high school recruits. This is why building on a college level takes longer.

The key question is Rutgers Football on the path to being successful? I would unequivocally State Yes.

Actually it is the exact opposite. It much tougher to build a roster thru the draft as opposed to Rutgers. There are only 7 rounds to the draft, Greg has access to any player in the country, whether they believe in what he is selling, that is up to him and his staff's ability to recruit. Especially in today's world, a coach who knows how to effectively use the transfer portal can turn his entire roster over in literally one year.

 

[brgRC90]

it's embarrassing to be associated with these fans to be honest. If they could see just how pathetic they are in their complacency and accepting of less than mediocre, they'd not want to look in the mirror.

We have a lot of fanciful thinking here: if this or that was different the team would be 7 and 5. It wasn't. You don't get wins based on what might've happened or improvement in statistical categories. Our opponents had injuries and headaches, too. You win or you don't. I've never seen fans go to such great lengths to make apologies for losing. And 3 years is a long time in college football. There can't be many Ash-era players left on the roster. Marginal improvement is not impressive.

 

[fluoxetine]

We have a lot of fanciful thinking here: if this or that was different the team would be 7 and 5. It wasn't. You don't get wins based on what might've happened or improvement in statistical categories. Our opponents had injuries and headaches, too. You win or you don't.

I remain adamant that this is wrong, in general. In our specific case we were a 4-8 team and we played like a 4-8 team. But there are times when this is not true. An example would be last season's Nebraska team that lost 8 one possession games. That team was ranked #39 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin. Not your typical 3-9 team.

 

[RU Cheese]

you and I are in more agreement than not, I believe you and I see this for what it is. My real concern, my major red flag is that he was comfortable with NV as the starter. He should be looking to replace each position with someone better but he doesn't, he's comfortable, he ,knows the expectations are not high and he knows half the fanbase adores him like a battered wife. Any decent coach would have been on the recruiting trail, talking to anyone and everyone to upgrade the single most important position on the field and yet he wasn't.

Now we've got young qbs, no development, no one in the wings that can manage the team with any real experience or talent deserving of a p5 starting qb. we're fked

Agree. Moreover, I've also don't understand the fans expectations or constant defense of Schiano. I've actually used the same comparison, battered wife, because despite people who will reply calling me insensitive, it's an excellent metaphor - doesn't matter what happens, it's not his fault, or things will change, or it takes time, etc.

 

[brgRC90]

I remain adamant that this is wrong, in general. In our specific case we were a 4-8 team and we played like a 4-8 team. But there are times when this is not true. An example would be last season's Nebraska team that lost 8 one possession games. That team was ranked #39 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin. Not your typical 3-9 team.

Although their terrible play this year shows that last year they were not much better than a 3 and 9 team. In the end, some teams/coaches win and others don't.

 

[fluoxetine]

Although their terrible play this year shows that last year they were not much better than a 3 and 9 team.

Maybe. Or they were just worse this year. Even this year, despite the same record against a similar schedule you would probably admit they were better than us this year.

In the end, some teams/coaches win and others don't.

Sure, but if you are making decisions regarding your coaching staff you are more interested in who will win in the future. And while who has won in the past is a big part of predicting that, adding context to that will make your predictions better.

Again, none of this is really an argument about Rutgers or Greg Schiano, just general philosophy.